future of application development keith jaeger
DESCRIPTION
Future of Application Development Keith Jaeger. Unprecedented Change. Huge amounts will be spent to change applications in the next 5 years The rate of change will increase the risk to development projects - which already “fail” up to 90% of the time (IDC) - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Future of Future of ApplicationApplication
DevelopmentDevelopment
Keith JaegerKeith Jaeger
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Unprecedented ChangeUnprecedented Change
Huge amounts will be spent to change applications Huge amounts will be spent to change applications in the next 5 yearsin the next 5 years
The rate of change will increase the risk to The rate of change will increase the risk to development projects - which already “fail” up to development projects - which already “fail” up to 90% of the time (IDC)90% of the time (IDC)
The opportunity to make MIS a competitive The opportunity to make MIS a competitive advantage consequently grows for those who know advantage consequently grows for those who know how to succeedhow to succeed
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Driving Forces Behind ChangeDriving Forces Behind Change
TechnologyDriven
CostDriven
FeatureDriven
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FeatureDriven
Mandated Business ChangesMandated Business Changes
TechnologyDriven
CostDriven
Year 2000European Currency
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Two StrategiesTwo Strategies
Application Rewrite
Patch
Application
Application
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Budget Impact of PatchingBudget Impact of Patching
TechnologyDriven
CostDriven
FeatureDriven
Year 2000European Currency
$1.00 a lineof code
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Driving Forces Behind ChangeDriving Forces Behind Change
TechnologyDriven
CostDriven
FeatureDriven
Distributed ComputingComponents
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Increased Pace of Technology ChangeIncreased Pace of Technology Change
VS
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Glockenspiel
Technology RisksTechnology Risks
NEXT
Taligent
Token Ring
OS/2
GuptaOpenDoc
ADcycleMOTIF
CGIBin
Smalltalk
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““N-Tier” Client ServerN-Tier” Client Server
NT
HP/UX
AS/400
Windowsclient
HP/UX
AS/400
NT
MVS
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Dynamic PartitioningDynamic Partitioning
NT
HP
AS/400Client
AS/400
PgmA
PgmB
PgmB
PgmB
PgmB
PgmB
Mobile computing, Failover, Distributed servers Mobile computing, Failover, Distributed servers
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SMP’s and ClusteringSMP’s and Clustering
ApplicationTask
Processor#1
Processor#2
Processor#4
Processor#3
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Cost PressuresCost Pressures
TechnologyDriven
FeatureDriven
CostDriven New Platforms
Labor ShortagesPackages
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Labor ChallengesLabor Challenges
Labor ShortageLabor Shortage Skills MismatchSkills Mismatch Shortening TenureShortening Tenure
Cost of skilled developers:
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Software EconomicsSoftware Economics
Bill Joy’s Law (SUN):Bill Joy’s Law (SUN):Don’t write software for less than 100,000 Don’t write software for less than 100,000 customers - $10 million = $1000 pricecustomers - $10 million = $1000 price
Bill Gates Law (Microsoft):Bill Gates Law (Microsoft):Don’t write software for less than 1,000,000 Don’t write software for less than 1,000,000 customers - $10 million = $100customers - $10 million = $100
Software becomes a commodity
Price = Fixed Cost + Marginal Cost Units
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The 90’s - Move to PackagesThe 90’s - Move to Packages
Efficiencies of Multiple Implementations
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Grove’s Law - Horizontal Grove’s Law - Horizontal ConsolidationConsolidation
Breaks old vertical Breaks old vertical modelmodel
Each layer picks Each layer picks best from lower best from lower layerlayer
A dominant player A dominant player tends to emerge in tends to emerge in each layereach layer
Different layers for Different layers for different price different price points/hardwarepoints/hardware
Function PC'sOperation AT&TIntegration EDSApplications SAPDatabase OracleBaseware MicrosoftSystem CompaqChips Intel
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““Generic” Layer Within ApplicationsGeneric” Layer Within Applications
Hea
lth C
are
Com
mer
cial
Insu
ranc
e
Rei
nsur
ance
Pen
sion
s
Dis
trib
utio
n
Loca
l Gov
ernm
ent
Sto
ck E
xcha
nge
Cou
rt H
ouse
Man
ufac
turin
g
Ret
ail
Gro
cery
…
ERP, Financials, Human Resources …
Pressure to integrate with Pressure to integrate with “complete solution”“complete solution”
New applications move New applications move to “generic” listto “generic” list
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Dominant Players “Stretch” LayersDominant Players “Stretch” Layers
Extend to other Extend to other platformsplatforms
Function PC's Midrange MainframeOperationIntegrationApplicationsDatabase OracleBasewareSystemChips
Redefine layers to Redefine layers to leverage dominanceleverage dominance
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Moore’s LawMoore’s Law
Hardware technologyHardware technologyimproves 4X every improves 4X every 3 years3 years
While someWhile someimprovementimprovementmeans moremeans morecapacity at thecapacity at thesame price,same price,there is a there is a downward pressure on pricesdownward pressure on prices
TimeP
rice
Mainframe Midrange PC
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Gordon Bell’s Platform EconomicsGordon Bell’s Platform Economics
1
10
100
1000
10000
100000
1000000
Mainframe Midrange Server NetPC
Cost
App Price
App Volume
Software prices follow hardware prices
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Cost PressureCost Pressure
Software price follows hardware
However, costs remain constant
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Application Growth SegmentsApplication Growth Segments
New Hardware MarketsNew Hardware Markets NTNT InternetInternet Hand heldHand held Home applicationsHome applications Lower price, little differentiationLower price, little differentiation
New Vertical NichesNew Vertical Niches High price, highly customized High price, highly customized
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Customization to Fill GapCustomization to Fill Gap
PackagePrice
SolutionPrice
Customization
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Reuse Through O-OReuse Through O-O
ProceduralRelational
ObjectOriented
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Failed to Take Hold in ApplicationsFailed to Take Hold in Applications
ProceduralRelational
ObjectOriented
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New Answer: ComponentsNew Answer: Components
ProceduralRelational
ObjectOriented
Components
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ComponentsComponents
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Component TypesComponent Types
VBX controlsVBX controls Sliders, graphs, fuel gauges, grids etc.Sliders, graphs, fuel gauges, grids etc.
ActiveX controlsActiveX controls similar to VBXsimilar to VBX 32 bit COM controls32 bit COM controls Internet enabledInternet enabled
Java beansJava beans Internet enabledInternet enabled Downloadable to browserDownloadable to browser
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BenefitsBenefits
AS/400 NT
Allows you to mix your objects with others on other platforms at any time
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Move to “Business Components”Move to “Business Components”
Controls
BusinessComponents
Packages
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Large Scale Business ComponentsLarge Scale Business Components
BusinessObject
User Classes
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Jaeger’s LawJaeger’s Law
The more complex a component, the smaller the number of opportunities for its use
Corollary:
The more business content in a component, the smaller the number of opportunities for its use
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Templates
Gartner View of OptionsGartner View of Options
Packages
Flexibility
Cost
Custom
Components
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Next Major LeapNext Major Leap
Packages/components that can be customized at a Packages/components that can be customized at a lower costlower cost More flexibility like templatesMore flexibility like templates Reuse like business componentsReuse like business components
Vendors (or in-house development) that achieve these two objectives will establish dominance in the next cycle
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Template “Types”Template “Types”
DesignLevel
“Patterns” Obsydian
SourceLevel
“Frameworks” SanFrancisco
ExecutionLevel
“Components” Packages
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Building a KitchenBuilding a Kitchen
Plug-ins: add customization Plug-ins: add customization into a pre-built kitcheninto a pre-built kitchen
Frameworks: customize by Frameworks: customize by following rules to extend a following rules to extend a kitchen blueprintkitchen blueprint
Patterns: customization draws Patterns: customization draws a new blueprinta new blueprint
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End User Control of DesktopEnd User Control of DesktopFixed
Character
WindowsDesktop
BrowserNavigation
CustomizedDisplay
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End User Control of BehaviorEnd User Control of Behavior
FixedPrograms
“.Ini File”Control
Control ofBusiness Rules
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Driving ForcesDriving Forces
TechnologyDriven
CostDriven
FeatureDriven
New PlatformsPackagesYear 2000
European Currency
Distributed ComputingComponents
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ConclusionsConclusions
Massive redevelopment in next 3-5 years due to Y2K, Massive redevelopment in next 3-5 years due to Y2K, EUC, Web, NT, componentsEUC, Web, NT, components
NT and Moore’s law will push package prices lower, NT and Moore’s law will push package prices lower, but not necessarily solution pricebut not necessarily solution price
Vendors who lead the next wave will be easiest to Vendors who lead the next wave will be easiest to customizecustomize
New tools and development technologies will take on New tools and development technologies will take on increased importanceincreased importance
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