future mobile technology mission to japan dissemination seminar background dr keith baughan chairman...
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Future Mobile Technology Mission to Japan
Dissemination Seminar
Background
Dr Keith Baughan
Chairman Mobile VCE
Nokia Mobile Phones
21st June 2002
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Topics
Japan - Evolving Role
Mission Objectives
Mission Structure
Growth prior to 2002
Business Drivers
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Japan - An Evolving Role
• Early 1990s - PDC, a national standard• 3G - pro active approach via ARIB, ITU, ETSI, 3GPP• First rollout of 3G - October 2001• Very active in ITU "Systems beyond 3G"• Proposed 4G air interface at 100Mb/s
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Mission Objectives
• To review:• the rationale for Japanese proposals for
"Systems beyond 3G" including a "4G" air interface
• The diversity of views across Japanese industry• Technological progress "beyond 3G"• 3G rollout in Japan
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Mission Structure
• Joint UK-Japan Symposium
"Future Mobile Communications" at YRP (Yokosuka Research Park)
• Half day visits to individual companies and other relevant organisations
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Over 100-fold Growth in 10 YearsMobile phone subscribers worldwide
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002e
1 Billion: 1st half 2002
Cel
lula
r su
bscr
iber
s (m
illi
ons)
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0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
P.R. of China
Mexico
Brazil
South Africa
Turkey
Canada
Germany
USA
France
Taiwan
Japan
Spain
Australia
United Kingdom
Netherlands
Korea
Austria
Italy
Sweden
Finland
Dec-91Dec-92Dec-93Dec-94Dec-95Dec-96Dec-97Dec-98Dec-99Jan-00
Cellular Penetration - January 2000
Source World Bank, EMC
Finland Sweden
Italy Austria
KoreaNetherlands
United KingdomAustralia
SpainJapan
TaiwanFrance
USAGermany
Canada Turkey
South AfricaBrazil
MexicoP.R. of China
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Time Taken to Reach 50 Million Users
WAP
GSM
WWW/Internet
TV
5 15years 35
Radio
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The #1 Consumer Electronics Industry
Sources: IDC, DataQuest, EIU
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
19911992199319941995199619971998199920002001
Million units
Passenger Cars
PC's
Cellular Terminals
Annual sales volumes for Passenger Cars, PC’s and Mobile Phones
Watches -98: 1240 million
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The Mobile World
In the future, a major partof personal communication
- be it voice, data, images or video - will be wireless.
The personal mobile devicewill be the main application platform
and medium!
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InformationTechnology
Telecom
Consumer
Electronics
Digital and IP Convergence are the Main Building Blocks of the New Mobile World
NEW NEW MOBILEMOBILEWORLDWORLD
Consumption
Connection
Content
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Amount and Types of Mobile Content Will Explode in the Future
• Types of content: • User created (images, videoclips, music etc.)
• Personal (music, movies, movieclips, games, applications, etc.)
• Group (family, friends, daughter's soccer team etc.)
• Community (greyhound owners' image album etc.)
• Subscribed (Manchester United Multimedia news service etc.)
• Network provided (location-based weather info etc.)
ImagesMMSs Audio/music ApplicationsVideoclips
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New Categories Driving the Market Change
Imaging Phone
Imaging & Messaging & Browsing
Media Phone
Full browsing & Access to Media
Communicator
Full browsing & Corporate Data
Entertainment
Games & Music & Messaging
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Business Drivers for "Beyond 3G" in Japan
• Competion from wireline 100 Mb/s• Fundamental belief that digital convergence of
hardware (cameras, audio, video, TV) with broadcasting, communications, computing is a major business opportunity
• Capacity limitations
Note: Social differences