Future Met Support An Airline Perspective

Captain Jonathan Rebbeck The Cathay Pacific Group

• Destination and Alternate forecast (TAF)

• Enroute winds and temperatures

• Hazardous weather

Forecasting will effect….

SAFETY EFFICIENCY COMMERCIAL

The future

• Accurate and consistent forecasting

• Investment into product development

• WMO commitment to the principle of free and unrestricted exchange of meteorological and related data and products

Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF)

TAF for VHHH 26 July 2016

TAF

• Flight time range 30 mins VHHH-ZGGG up to 16 hrs VHHH-KJFK

• TAF issued every 6 hours for 24hr - 30hr

• Short range forecast can benefit both short haul and long haul flights

With marginal weather

• VHHH-ZGGG Flight time 30 mins

• Remain on ground in VHHH or depart?

• VHHH-KJFK Flight time 16 hours

• Depart not knowing if aircraft can land

Hong Kong to New YorkFlight time 15h 46m Departure 0500 Arrival c.2100

KJFK 242330Z 2500/2606 18014KT P6SM FEW150 BKN250

FM250200 21007KT P6SM SCT150 BKN200 PROB30 2520/2524 TSRA BKN040CB FM260000

24008KT P6SM FEW050 BKN100

Would also apply to fog, snow, etc.

TEMPO and BECMG = more Fuel!

VHHH 260500Z 2606/2712 11015KT 8000 FEW015 SCT030

TX31/2607Z TX30/2706Z TN26/2622Z TEMPO 2612/2618 4000 SHRA TEMPO 2618/2703 VRB15G25KT 2500 TSRA SHRA

FEW010CB SCT020 BECMG 2703/2705 17010KT TEMPO 2703/2709 4000 SHRA

Upper Winds and Temperatures

Wind and Temperature

• Improve accuracy and updates

• Longer flight, greater the effect flight time and fuel

• Temperature affects climb capability resulting in increased fuel flow

En-route Hazards

Threats

• HIWC (High Ice Water Content) • Convection • Volcanic Ash • Turbulence

TurbulenceAn everyday threat to flight

safety

Turbulence Report Turbulence severity + Maintenance report + EDR parameter

Server Network

DATA LINK

DRAGONAIR CAFES automatically redirects Turbulence Report to the Server

Network

Uplink of message

Server Network Alert message created for uplink to applicable

tail numbers.

DRAGONAIR CAFES redirects message

to applicable aircraft

DATA LINK

Future

• Many private companies offering data and alerting systems, but operate independently.

• For maximum benefit the industry requires a global approach

Summary

• Consistent,accurate and frequent forecast/updates to aid proactive decision making, including refined use of TEMPO/BECMG

• Improved weather charts & digital solutions • Global solutions lead by observatories

Questions?

Thank You!