Lifecycle Cost Analysis of Electric, Hybrid, and Conventional Vehicles

in Singapore

Samir M. NazirUnder the guidance of WONG Yuk Sum

About me

• BSME 2001 – University of Texas• 2002-2008: Baker Hughes (oilfield services)• Summer 2009 – EAR, FWHA, USDOT• Fall 2009 – OES, State Dept• 2010 – Magna Powertrain• MS-STPP 2011 – Rochester Institute of Technology

– Fuel conversion of UAV engine– Catalyst deactivation in SOFC diesel reformers– Thesis: Variation of PHEV benefits across the US

This is a presentation discussing project scope before final results were developed. This work is currently in progress.

Why Singapore?

• Research conducted at ESI• Interactions with Chinese automotive industry• Cross-section of Asia• Financial hub, but governed by technocrats• Proximity to rapidly developing economies while

being comparatively advanced

This is a presentation discussing project scope before final results were developed. This work is currently in progress.

Energy Studies Institute

• Policy-oriented research institute that seeks to produce independent research to inform debate on energy issues of key interest

• Research and analysis on energy economics, security and the environment that affect the national, regional and global arena

• Concerned with the threat of a worldwide depletion of fossil fuels, the impact of climate change, and the growing importance of geopolitics on energy supplies

This is a presentation discussing project scope before final results were developed. This work is currently in progress.

Evaluation of the Cost, Benefits and Feasibility of Adopting Electric Vehicles in Singapore

“This study aims to evaluate the economic costs, benefits and feasibility of adopting EVs in Singapore. The evaluation will include recommendations for policies regarding EVs, including whether or not to encourage the adoption of these vehicles. Through the test-bed, ESI will also advise on regulations governing the use of EVs such as creating standards for the charging of EVs, targeted density of charging stations in the market, etc.”

This is a presentation discussing project scope before final results were developed. This work is currently in progress.

EV Task Force

Chairs

Government

Industry

This is a presentation discussing project scope before final results were developed. This work is currently in progress.

EV Task Force

• Year 2010 – 2012 • Install 63 chargers, to be complete by end of 2011• Corporate fleet owners purchase EVs for trial and

data collection

Mitsubishi i-MiEV Renault Fluence Z.E.

This is a presentation discussing project scope before final results were developed. This work is currently in progress.

Background on Singapore

• Tropical island with land area of 710km2 • Heterogeneous population with 4 national

languages: English, Chinese, Malay, and Tamil• Modern and rapidly growing economy

– Export driven– Refining of imported petroleum– Financial center– Logistics hub

This is a presentation discussing project scope before final results were developed. This work is currently in progress.

Singapore Energy Production and Usage

• Population – 5M• Electricity

– 80% natural gas– 20% fuel oil

• Vehicle population – 584,000• Private vehicles: 19,600 km driven per year

This is a presentation discussing project scope before final results were developed. This work is currently in progress.

Electric Vehicles

• Diversify energy feedstock used to fuel private transportation

• Cleaner sources of electricity can result in pollution reduction

• More than twice as efficient as internal combustion engines

• Battery technology (cost and range anxiety) remain challenges

• Vehicle ranges vary 90-160 km on full charge

This is a presentation discussing project scope before final results were developed. This work is currently in progress.

Lifecycle Analysis

We are investigating the implications of consumer costs exceeding societal costs.

Societal

Upfront costw/o tax

Consumer

Upfront costwith tax

Operation costw/o tax

Operation costwith tax

External cost

Life

cyc

le c

ost

This is a presentation discussing project scope before final results were developed. This work is currently in progress.

Vehicles Compared

This is a presentation discussing project scope before final results were developed. This work is currently in progress.

Externalities

• Negative consequence of combusting fuels to generate energy that are not internalized

• Result of poorly defined property rights• Externalities considered for analysis

– Health impacts– Material damage– Productivity losses– Reduction of aesthetic quality

This is a presentation discussing project scope before final results were developed. This work is currently in progress.

Pollutants

• Local effect– PM10– SO2

– NOx

• Global effect (greenhouse gases)– CO2

– CH4

– N2O

This is a presentation discussing project scope before final results were developed. This work is currently in progress.

Vehicle Open Market Value

The EV has the highest price, followed by the HEVs, and then the ICEs.

This is a presentation discussing project scope before final results were developed. This work is currently in progress.

Upfront Costs

Under the TIDES scheme, the i-MiEV has the lowest societal costs and second lowest consumer costs. Otherwise, the EV is the most

expensive vehicle, followed by the HEVs and ICEs, respectively.

This is a presentation discussing project scope before final results were developed. This work is currently in progress.

Fuel Costs

The EV has the lowest fuelling costs. Among comparable vehicles, HEVs will have lower fuelling costs compared to an ICE.

This is a presentation discussing project scope before final results were developed. This work is currently in progress.

Emissions

W2W Corolla Prius Camry Camry Hybrid Mitsubishi i i-MiEV

PM10 g/km 0.025 0.014 0.028 0.021 0.016 0.009

SO2 g/km 0.072 0.042 0.080 0.061 0.046 0.167

NOx g/km 0.189 0.110 0.211 0.161 0.122 0.107

GHG g/km 239 139 267 204 154 90

The EV will likely result in the lowest PM10, NOx, and GHG emissions and may offer lower levels of these emissions than the Prius. It may result in the highest SO2 emissions, depending on

when it is charged.

This is a presentation discussing project scope before final results were developed. This work is currently in progress.

Pollutant Costs

Because of the makeup of Singapore’s energy portfolio, the i-MiEV may have higher pollutant costs than its petrol variant and the Prius.

This will depend on when the vehicle is charged.

This is a presentation discussing project scope before final results were developed. This work is currently in progress.

Discussion

• Depending on the subsidy scheme, the upfront societal cost for the i-MiEV can be either the highest or lowest among the vehicles considered. The consumer cost is marginally higher than the lowest cost vehicle, its petrol variant

• Difficulty in projecting damage costs• EV pollutant costs are a function of the fuel

composition used to generate electricity• This analysis is limited purely to cost and does not

take into account other considerations

This is a presentation discussing project scope before final results were developed. This work is currently in progress.

Discussion

This is a presentation discussing project scope before final results were developed. This work is currently in progress.