from chicago chandigarh: a comparative analysis...eliminate shortage by 2016 –plus bonus …...
TRANSCRIPT
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From Chicago to Chandigarh: A Comparative Analysis
Bob LiebermanOctober, 2011
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The view from my window
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Nicholas Cage considerations
Favorite Nicholas Cage MovieLeast Favorite Nicholas Cage
Movie
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Decades pass, nothing happensWeeks pass, decades happen
V. I. Lenin1918
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Key regulatory and operational entities in Indian Power Sector
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Facts and forecastsMore or less current
2030 Base Case 2030 abatement case
Population 1.1 billion 1.5 billion 1.5 billion
Rate of GDP growth
8% 7.5% 7.5%
ElectricityConsumption
700 TWh 3,870 TWh 2,910 TWh
Generating Capacity
150 GW 760 GW 640 GW
Carbon Emissions 1.6 billion 5.7 billion 3.1 billion
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Basic FactsIndia Illinois
Residential Prices .066 ‐ .22 cents per kwh .12 per kwh
Per Capita Income $1,200 $23,000
Per Capita Electricity Consumption
700 kwh/year 4,600 kwh/year
Per Household Electricity Consumption
1200 kwh/year 10,000 kwh/year
Saturation of Air Conditioning
.05 1.0
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Total GWh ProducedIndia, China and US
1971 ‐ 2009
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Electricity Use per capitaIndia, China and US
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IND CHN USA
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Carbon tons/$ GDPChina, India and US
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Carbon tons per capitaIndia, China and US
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DistributionGeneration (Electrical Energy Generation)
Technology Ownership
Transmission
Total Generation = 671 TWhTotal Capacity = 132 GW
Retail Sales
Coal, 69%
Gas, 10%
Hydro, 17%
Renewable, 1%
Nuclear, 3%
State, 52%
Central, 38%
Private, 10%
Publicly Owned
Loss = 5.3% Loss = 24.7%
CategoryOwnership
Total Sales = 456 TWh
State, 87%
Private, 12%
Municipal, 1%
Domestic, 24%
Commercial, 9%
Industry, 38%
Agriculture, 22%
Other, 8%
Domestic, 24%
Total Revenue= Rs 1179 Bn
Revenue (State utilities only)
Domestic,19%
Commercial, 13%
Industry, 50%
Agriculture, 6%
Other, 12%
Indicates payment flowsIndian Power Sector (2007)
Government Subsidy = Rs 128 Bn
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Income and Expenditure of State Utilities
2007 2008 2009
Total Expenditure (Rs Cr) 159,941 183,604 221,267
Total income (excluding subsidy) Rs Cr 131,905 149,532 170,381
Subsidy Received (Rs Cr) 12,836 16,472 18,388
Tax (Rs Cr) ‐143 166 ‐301
Net Profit (after tax and subsidy) Rs Cr ‐15,200 ‐17,600 ‐32,498
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Sales by Category and by Ownership (2007)
Domestic, 32%Domestic, 39%
Domestic, 23%
Commercial, 18%
Commercial, 54%
Commercial, 7%
Industry, 40%
Industry, 6%
Industry, 38%
Agriculture, 3%
Agriculture, 25%
Other, 7%Other, 2%
Other, 8%
Private Municipalities State
Total Sales = 56 TWh 4.9 TWh 395 TWh
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Income, Expenditure and Profits of State Utilities
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Subsidy, 10%
Revenue, 91%
Subsidy, 9%
Net Profit = Rs ‐325 Bn *
Net Profit = Rs ‐152 Bn
* Note that 2009 was the national election year. Therefore, one might expect increase in the quantum
of expensive power purchase in that year, which might have made the state utilities worse off.
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10/24/2011 Dr. Jayant Sathaye17
•Daily power outages
•Impedes productivity
•High business costs for self‐generated power
•Half the population has no access to electricity
•Huge payback from investments in efficiency
India’s power sector: the challenge and opportunity
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Return on Investment: Typical India Values
Electricity Generation Own Plant Use
10% auxiliary loss
Transmission and Distribution
20% technical loss
+ 20% commercial loss
Electricity Use90 kWh 72 kWh100 kWh
Marginal cost of supply:
Rs 6 ‐ 8 /kWh
Marginal cost of demand reduction:
Rs. 1 ‐ 5 /kWh demand or Rs. 0.7 ‐ 3 /kWh supply
Efficient Use: Lower cost and shorter construction lead time than new supply
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Cost of conserved energy is less than the cost of energy from new power plants
RESULT: An aggressive and successful energy efficiency initiative will result in lower bills for customers, lower operating costs for utilities, and lower environmental costs.
This concept is used by governments and regulators in other countries to make resource choices.
Figure 1. Comparing Energy Efficiency with New Supply Side Options
Note: Incremental cost estimates for energy efficiency options are based on typical retail price differences for efficient versus inefficient products, and apply to new purchase decisions and not retrofits. The numbers presented are only indicative. For retrofits, CCE is higher; however, in most instances it is lower than Rs 4/kWh.
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BAU Scenario 1: Invest in supply capacity, but shortage continues
EE Scenario 2: Invest in efficiency, eliminate shortage by 2016 – plus bonus …
Scenario BAU Scenario EE Scenario2017 6% Deficit 2% Surplus
Capex (2009‐2017) Rs. 382 thousand crores
Rs. 378 thousand crores (incl. efficiency options)
Efficiency Options Lighting, fans, refrigerators, motors, agricultural pumping
SEE Scenario: Peak Demand and Supply Capacity
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Similarities• Illinois
– Little or no serious public planning
– Disinclination to charge customers for infrastructure upgrades
– Primacy of holding companies– Complex federalist structure
of governance– Restructuring efforts
hampered by Enron– Skewed income distributions – Don’t want to pay the extra
cost for clean resources– Most repeated line from
regulators: “We don’t have the legal authority”
• India– Little or no serious public
planning– Disinclination to charge
customers for infrastructure upgrades
– Primacy of holding companies– Complex federalist structure
of governance– Restructuring efforts
hampered by Enron– Skewed income distributions– Don’t want to pay the extra
cost for clean resources– Most repeated line from
regulators “We don’t have the legal authority”
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Another SimilarityFormer Karnataka chief minister
BS YeddyurappaFormer Governor Rod
Blagojevich
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Differences• Illinois
– Over‐capacity– Everyone is served– Financial health of the system
– Reliability is socialized
• India– Generation shortages– 50% of population currently unserved
– Distribution utilities effectively bankrupt
– Reliability is privatized
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ENERGY SECURITY:•Average Power Demand‐ Supply gap of 12%, peak gap of 16.7%!!•Rate of economic growth is 9% p.a.while power sector growth is 5‐6%.•This, when 412 million Indians have NO access to electricity.•India imports 78% of oil requirement. Will rise to 90% by 2030.•53% of power produced from coal, which will not last beyond 2040/50•Nuclear will play a marginal role. (10% of total by 2030)•Renewable Energy, Energy Efficiency and Conservation are key.
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