frog iot big design iot world congress 2015

BIG DESIGN: HOW SYSTEMS OF SYSTEMS ARE CHANGING WHAT WE’RE DESIGNING, AND WHAT WE NEED TO MANUFACTURE

PATRICK KALAHER VP OF TECHNOLOGY STRATEGY

frog

As products, buildings, and infrastructure get smarter, more connected, and data-rich, design must expand from a singular focus on discrete things and structures towards the design of adaptive, modular, intelligent, and interdependent systems. This talk will showcase what frog sees as the emerging conceptual architecture of Big Design, and give examples of how this is changing what, and how, we make things.

TODAY

2

“We need to shrink our PDLC from 7 years to 3 years.”

— EXECUTIVE AT SCIENTIFIC MICROSCOPE MANUFACTURING COMPANY

3

WE SHRUNK THE PDLC, BUT THE CUSTOMER ISN’T BUYING MICROSCOPES ANYMORE.

OH MY

4

OH MY

SCIENTISTS WANT TO ANALYZE IMAGES OF CELLS.

5

OH MY

IMAGE ACQUISITION & MANIPULATION

STORAGE COLLABORATION SOFTWARE TO AID IN ANALYSIS & WORKFLOW

6

OH MY

“YOU’RE ACTUALLY IN THE IMAGING SYSTEMS BUSINESS NOW.”

ALONG WITH DOZENS OF OTHER COMPANIES.

7

SO, WHAT’S IT GOING TO TAKE TO BE GOOD AT THIS?

“What do you mean there’s no such thing as Zero Defect software?”

— EXECUTIVE AT SCIENTIFIC MICROSCOPE MANUFACTURING COMPANY

9

As products, buildings, and infrastructure get smarter, more connected and data-rich, design must expand from a singular focus on discrete things and structures towards the design of adaptive, modular, intelligent, and interdependent context—where things, services, people, and places are always already connected in direct and oblique ways.

Big Design uses design and engineering to shape connected, intelligent systems that bridge the human, enterprise, and urban—or even planetary— scale.

SHIFT OF VALUE TO THE SYSTEM, AWAY FROM THE DEVICE

INFRASTRUCTURE

ENTERPRISE

PERSONALHUMAN SCALE

DISCRETE LINKED, LAYERED

WEARABLE

MOBILE

DEVICE

CAR

BUILDING

COMPLEX

DISTRICT

CITY

REGION

PLANETURBAN SCALE

10

MUCH MORE ABOUT THIS LATER

14

TOTAL RUBBISH?

15

TOTAL RUBBISH?

MEET BRUNO. FIXES PROBLEMS YOU DIDN’T KNOW YOU HAD. CREATES NEW ONES.

15

DUMB RUBBISH?

16

SMARTBELLY, BIGBELLY SOLAR

SMART RUBBISH?

17

IT’S A SERIES OF PROCESSES AND SYSTEMS

18

Waste CollectionServices

Composting

Recycling

Other ProcessingActivities

Production

SortingSorting SortingFinal Disposal

Waste Recovery

BIGBELLY“BigBelly uses solar power for 100% of its energy needs for trash compacting. The unit takes up as much space as the "footprint" of an ordinary receptacle—but its capacity is five times greater. Increased capacity reduces collection trips and can cut fuel use and greenhouse gas emissions by 80%.”

www.bigbelly.com 19


Composting

Recycling


Production


Waste Recovery

IT’S GOT TO BE MUCH BETTER IN ORDER TO BE WORTH DOING

http://www.bigbelly.com/


COST

EFFICIENCY

www.bigbelly.com 19


Composting

Recycling


Production


Waste Recovery




COST

MANUFACTURING COMPLEXITY

DESIGNCOMPLEXITY

DESIGNCOMPLEXITY

OPERATIONALCOMPLEXITY

COST

EFFICIENCY

www.bigbelly.com 19


Composting

Recycling


Production


Waste Recovery



OH MY

“YOU’RE ACTUALLY IN THE BIG DESIGN BUSINESS NOW.”

ALONG WITH EVERYONE ELSE IN MANUFACTURING.

20

SO, WHAT’S IT GOING TO TAKE TO BE GOOD AT THIS?

22

DESIGN PRINCIPLES

ARCHITECTURE SECURITY & ANTI-FRAGILITY

EXPERIENCE STRATEGY

22

DESIGN PRINCIPLES


EXPERIENCE STRATEGY

23

1.

24

DESIGN PRINCIPLES

INVENT AS LITTLE AS POSSIBLE

2.

DESIGN FOR CHEAP MODULARITY

3.

HUMANS + MACHINES > HUMANS OR MACHINES

“Von Neumann had one piece of advice for us: not to originate anything.” This helped put the IAS project in the lead. “One of the reasons our group was successful, and got a big jump on others, was that we set up certain limited objectives, namely that we would not produce any new elementary components.” adds Bigelow.

“We would try and use the ones which were available for standard communications purposes. We chose vacuum tubes which were in mass production, and very common types, so that we could hope to get reliable components, and not have to go into component research.”

DESIGN PRINCIPLES: INVENT AS LITTLE AS POSSIBLE

25

DESIGN PRINCIPLES: INVENT AS LITTLE AS POSSIBLE

26Source: Nascent Objects

DESIGN PRINCIPLES: DESIGN FOR CHEAP MODULARITY

Source: Nascent Objects 27

COST

MANUFACTURING COMPLEXITY

DESIGNCOMPLEXITY

DESIGN PRINCIPLES: HUMANS + MACHINES > HUMANS OR MACHINES

28

MORAVEC’S PARADOX“The hard problems are easy, the easy problems are hard.” —Stephen Pinker

POLANYI’S PARADOX“The skill of a driver cannot be replaced by a thorough schooling in Motorcar Theory.”

www.blog.kinaxis.com/2014/10/humans-inloop-part-3-kinaxis-cognizant-series

Physical

Self Monitoring and Regulation‘Robot Farming’

Human InvolvementCognitive/Physical Workload

Remote Monitoring and Controlling

Non-Creative Mental Work-Managing Robots/Machines

High Percentage of PhysicalLabor

Cognitive

3

6

n Future

Tomorrow

Today

80s

60s<1

1

http://blog.kinaxis.com/2014/10/humans-inloop-part-3-kinaxis-cognizant-series/

29www.blog.kinaxis.com/2014/10/humans-inloop-part-3-kinaxis-cognizant-series

DESIGN PRINCIPLES: HUMANS + MACHINES > HUMANS OR MACHINES

MORAVEC’S PARADOX“The hard problems are easy, the easy problems are hard.” —Stephen Pinker

POLANYI’S PARADOX“The skill of a driver cannot be replaced by a thorough schooling in Motorcar Theory.”

Physical






Cognitive

3

6

n Future

Tomorrow

Today

80s

60s<1

1

Physical






Cognitive

3

6

n Future

Tomorrow

Today

80s

60s<1

1

http://blog.kinaxis.com/2014/10/humans-inloop-part-3-kinaxis-cognizant-series/

30


DESIGN PRINCIPLES


EXPERIENCE STRATEGY

32

ARCHITECTURE

1.

THERE ARE THREE SCALES OF BIG DESIGN

2.

DESIGN SMALL PIECES, LOOSELY JOINED

3.

RESPECT THE IOT WELL CURVE

33

BIG DESIGN AT THREE SCALES

UNIT SCALE Constrained systems for specialized needs; constrained by compute, network, or power capabilities.

• System on Chip • Wireless Sensors • Energy Harvesting

LOCAL SCALE Edge compute systems for real time needs; general purpose computing platforms.

• Operating Systems • Autonomous Vehicles • Smartphones • Network Appliances

PLANETARY SCALE Redundant, parallel compute systems ideally suited for parallel processing and distributed storage needs; Big Data.

• Hadoop • Data Centers • Virtualization

34

Source: The Opte Project

SMALL PIECES, SOMETIMES SCALE-FREE

“What the Web has done to documents it is doing to just about every institution it touches. The Web isn't primarily about replacing atoms with bits so that we can, for example, shop online or make our supply chains more efficient…Rather, the Web is changing our understanding of what puts things together in the first place. We live in a world that works well if the pieces are stable and have predictable effects on one another. We think of complex institutions and organizations as being like well-oiled machines that work reliably and almost serenely so long as their subordinate pieces perform their designated tasks. Then we go on the Web, and the pieces are so loosely joined that frequently the links don't work; all too often we get the message “404!”

But, that's ok because the Web gets its value not from the smoothness of its overall operation but from its abundance of small nuggets that point to more small nuggets.”

35

“The Internet consists of Small Pieces, Loosely Joined.”— DAVID WEINBERGER

35

SMALL PIECES, JOINED LIKE THE INTERNET

36Source: frog

eg:FitbitNike +SmartthingsTwine

eg:SmartphonesiPadsNest

Device Complexity and Cost

Rel

ativ

e N

umbe

r of

Uni

ts (

Log)

COMPLEXITY & COST WELL CURVE

37Source: frog

Dead Zone

eg:FitbitNike +SmartthingsTwine

eg:SmartphonesiPadsNest

Device Complexity and Cost

Rel

ativ

e N

umbe

r of

Uni

ts (

Log)


37Source: frog

Device Profitability

Dead Zone

— RICHARD TYSON

“Big Design is about a shift of value to the system, from the device.”

38

($5)

39


Source: DLB Associates

($7B)

DESIGN PRINCIPLES


EXPERIENCE STRATEGY

41

42

SECURITY & ANTI-FRAGILITY

1.

DESIGN FOR BAD DESIGN

2.

DESIGN FOR FAILURE

3.

DESIGN FOR FAT TAILS & WEIRDNESS

OUR SELF-DRIVING FUTURE

http://www.bsfilms.com.ar/ 43

http://www.bsfilms.com.ar/

YOU’RE ONLY AS GOOD AS YOUR WORST DESIGN DECISION

www.arstechnica.com 44

REMOTELINK DATA An example of decrypted RemoteLink data captured by OwnStar, from Kamkar's DefCon presentation.

http://arstechnica.com

NO MATTER WHAT, IT WILL BE HACKED

45

There have been an increasing number of safety critical hacks of production vehicles. This one resulted in more than 1 Million Jeeps being recalled.

“Hackers remotely kill a Jeep on the highway.”

— ANDY GREENBERG

Source: Wired

INDUSTRY STANDARD ATTACK SURFACES

46Source: Sean Gallagher / www.arstechnica.com

http://cyberphysicalsystems.org/

47

47

“An escalator can never break: it can only become stairs.”

— MITCH HEDBERG

BEWARE FAT TAILS

1. Disproportionate Role 2. Non-Computability 3. Psychological Biases 4. Things keep getting weirder

48Source: Wikipedia / Cauchy Distribution

FAT TAILS HAPPEN EVERY DAY

49Source: Internet

THE WORLD IS GETTING WEIRDER

50

DESPITE BILLIONS SPENT ON SAFETY AND SECURITY, THERE REALLY IS NO WAY TO STOP A PILOT FROM INTENTIONALLY CRASHING A PLANE.

50Source: stevecoast.com

http://stevecoast.com






DESIGN FOR FAILURE




DESIGN PRINCIPLES


EXPERIENCE STRATEGY

52

53

EXPERIENCE STRATEGY

1.

DON’T JUST MAKE THINGS

2.

CREATE ANCHOR POINTS

3.

ORGANIZE FOR EXPERIENCE


54

Previous Products

Market/Customersays...

SortingWe think...

SortingNo ExistingMarket

SortingCan we?Should we?

SortingWe should make a thing

SortingThe MarketIndicates

CREATE EXPERIENCES

55

People have been doing...

Experimentsto understandbehavior...

These thingsexist

Learning

Adapting

Networksfeel...

SortingWe could be...

CREATE EXPERIENCES

56

BUILDING NEW PRODUCTS & SERVICES What needs and desires are we trying to address?

UNDERSTANDING THE IMPACT OF NEW TECHNOLOGIESWhat do we need to understand and when? How do we react?

New products and services create new behaviors

A better understanding of needs and desires can validate decisions

ANCHOR POINTS: THINGS YOU CAN RELY ON

57Source: GE

58

— OPERATIONS MANAGER, MAJOR CITY TRANSIT

“Before CNG in a Box, it took all night to fuel my busses. And sometimes it didn’t work.”

CNG in a Box

59


CNG in a Box

Schedules

59


CNG in a BoxInterfaces

Schedules

59


CNG in a BoxInterfaces

Services

Schedules

59


CNG in a BoxInterfaces Distribution

Services

Schedules

59


HEADLINE

LOREM IPSUM DOLOR SIT AMET, CONSECTETUR ADIPISICING ELIT, SED DO EIUSMOD TEMPOR

60

ANCHOR POINTS FOR CONNECTED EXPERIENCES

60

IOT ExperienceInterfaces Distribution

Services

Schedules

61


ORGANIZED FOR EXPERIENCE?

Which company is better organized to create the best experiences? Who can introduce new services and products, or pivot quickly to change existing ones?

62Source: Internet Meme

ORGANIZED FOR EXPERIENCE?

“Schiller’s Marketing function includes product marketing by product line, but these are not business ownership roles…there is no “head of devices” or “head of iPhone”…Product is a “horizontal” responsibility for which every function is partially responsible.”

“When seen in this light, the first observation is that there is no ‘product business’ ownership.”

—HORACE DEDIU, ASYMCO

CEO

HR Marketing - Schiller

Design - Ive

Technologies - Mansfield

Internet SW-Cue

Operations

HW Engineering -Riccio

Legal

NA Sales

Int. Sales

Communications

Retail

Finance -Oppenheimer

SW Engineering -Federighi

SUSTAIN

DISRUPT

63Source: asymco.com

http://asymco.com




DESIGN FOR FAILURE









DESIGN FOR FAILURE







CREATE ANCHOR POINTS

ORGANIZE FOR EXPERIENCE