fresh fruit trend analysis, market share … · fresh fruit trend analysis, market share seasonal...

FRESHFRUITTRENDANALYSIS,MARKETSHARE

SEASONALANALYSIS,VALUEANDVOLUME

PreparedbyWayneProwseFreshIntelligenceConsulting5thSeptember2018

1

Population=Consumers=DemandNosurprises–88%liveinNorthernHemisphere(44%northofTropicofCancer)

3%

53%

44%

Population=Consumers=DemandNosurprises–88%liveinNorthernHemisphereand82%liveinEasternHemisphere(Eurasia)

3%

53%

44%

82% 18%

Population=Consumers=DemandNosurprises–88%liveinNorthernHemisphereand82%liveinEasternHemisphere(Eurasia)50%livewithin5hoursflyingtimefromHongKong

3%

53%

44%

82% 18%

50%

GDPpercapita=PurchasingPowerNorthoftropics-NorthAmericaandEuropemostlucrative,China(EastCoast)isthefastestdeveloping

GDPpercapita=PurchasingPowerChinaEastCoasthasthehighestlevelofGDPinChina–averageUS$16,000(allofChinaisUS$9,300)

7 provinces along east coast have highest GDP in China

Endpointretailischangingfromtraditionalwetmarketstomoderncashlessonlinehybrid

GlobalTradeinFreshFruit2001-2017

-

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

70.00

80.00

90.00

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

MillionTo

nnes

Source:ITCTrademap;FreshIntelligenceanalysis

Other

Papaya

Rasberries&Blackberries

Blueberries

Cherries

Durians

Strawberries

Grapefruit

Kiwifruit

Mangoes

Avocados

Caneloupemelons

Pears

PeachesNectarines&Plums

DragonFruit,Longansandtropical

Watermelons

Lemons&Limes

Pineapples

Mandarins

Grapes

Oranges

Apples

Bananas

GlobalVolume 80.11 milliontonnes

1yrgrowth 3.6%5yrtrend 2.3% p.a.

10yrtrend 3.6% p.a+ 3.6% per year

GlobalFreshFruitRegionalShareofImportsEurope is the largest import trade. Asia has the highest consistent growth rate

Caution – all areas have intra-regional trade include which can cause double counting, for example: •  Netherlands imports from Southern Hemisphere and re exports to other Europe •  Hong Kong imports from outside Asia and re exports to China •  US imports from Mexico and re exports to Canada

Europe44%

Asia15%

NorthAmerica15%

MENA7%

Russia7%

SouthAmerica2%

Australia&NewZealand

0.3%

Other10%

2017 2017share 1yrchange 5yrtrend 10yrtrendMilTonnes % % % %

Europe 35.50 44.3% 5% 2.7% 2.2%

Asia 11.77 14.7% 9% 4.8% 6.3%NorthAmerica 12.29 15.3% 9% -2.1% 3.8%MENA 5.25 6.5% -12% -1.5% 2.5%Russia 5.36 6.7% 15% -2.5% 0.6%SouthAmerica 1.68 2.1% 5% 0.0% 3.3%Australia&NewZealand 0.27 0.3% 0% 0.2% 1.0%Other 8.00 10.0% -10% 16% 8.2%

allFreshFruit2017 80.11 100.0% 3.6% 2.3% 3.3%Source:ITCTrademap;FreshIntelligenceanalysis

TropicalFreshFruitProduction&Distribution

Temperate Fruit (northern season)

Temperate Fruit (southern season)

Tropical Fruit (year round)

Almostalltropicalfruitfornorthernmarketsmustbeshippedfromproducersinthetropics

GlobalTropical&SubTropicalFruitImportTrends

•  At 23 million tonnes, bananas are the leading fresh fruit product traded •  Dragon fruit, longans and other tropical fruits are mostly ASEAN to

China and growth driven from Vietnam and Thailand to China •  Avocados are largest consistent growth product mostly from Mexico


Bananas 23.33 57.72% 6.9% 2.9% 3.6%Melons 5.43 13.42% -8.3% 1.1% 3.1%Pineapples 3.45 8.53% -2.8% 2.6% 4.0%DragonFruit,Longansandtropical 3.12 7.72% 27.9% 6.0% 8.4%Avocados 2.14 5.29% 12.8% 10.5% 12.7%Mangoes 1.86 4.61% 6.2% 3.0% 7.7%Durians 0.75 1.84% 11.2% 2.2% 8.6%Papaya 0.36 0.88% -0.2% 5.1% 4.3%

TropicalFruit 40.43 100.00% 5.3% 3.1% 4.5%Source:ITCTrademap;FreshIntelligenceanalysis

1.1M t

BananaDistribution

350k t

800k t

600k t

400k t

110k t

2M t 6M t

1M t 7.5M t

GlobalTemperateFruitImportsTrends


Apples 8.87 21.99% -2.3% 0.5% 2.3%Oranges 7.09 17.58% -0.4% 0.4% 2.0%Grapes 4.59 11.38% 7.4% 2.4% 2.2%Mandarins 4.65 11.54% -1.0% 0.8% 0.9%PeachesNectarines&Plums 3.36 8.34% 9.4% 2.7% 3.8%Lemons&Limes 3.34 8.28% 2.7% 5.1% 5.9%Pears 2.76 6.85% 5.3% 2.0% 1.8%Kiwifruit 1.54 3.83% -6.7% 1.5% 2.8%Grapefruit 1.13 2.79% 8.5% -1.3% 0.4%Strawberries 0.95 2.35% 5.5% 1.1% 4.7%Cherries 0.60 1.48% 8.2% 6.0% 7.5%Blueberries 0.46 1.14% 10.0% 7.3% 13.4%Rasberries&Blackberries 0.36 0.90% 33.5% 10.5% 11.7%Other 0.62 1.54%

TemperateFruit2017 40.31 100.00% 2.1% 1.7% 3.0%Source:ITCTrademap;FreshIntelligenceanalysis

TemperateFreshFruitProduction&Distribution

Temperate Fruit (southern season)

Temperate Fruit (northern season)

Tropical Fruit (year round)

Marketsthatwantyearroundtemperatefruitmustimportcounter-seasonfruit.

7.2%peryeargrowthofFreshFruitimportsbyAsia

17

-

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

14,000,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Tonn

esperyear


AsianMarketImportGrowth2001-2017

India

Philippines

Taiwan

Thailand

Singapore

Malaysia

Indonesia

SouthKorea

VietNam

Japan

HongKong(net)

China

China Japan

AsianFreshFruitCountryShareofImports•  China is the largest import trade 3.86 million tonnes imported. •  India has the highest consistent growth rate off a small base 440,000 tonnes imported •  Japan was the largest importer in Asia though has not increased as others have


China 3.86 32.8% 11% 7.1% 12.2%HongKong(net) 0.66 5.6% -2% -4.9% 2.4%Japan 1.62 13.8% 1% -0.6% -0.8%VietNam 1.59 13.5% 41% 16.2% 11.8%SouthKorea 0.82 7.0% 9% 4.0% 5.4%Indonesia 0.62 5.2% 37% 5.6% 3.2%Malaysia 0.47 4.0% -11% -1.3% 1.2%Singapore 0.47 4.0% 3% 2% 3.7%Thailand 0.57 4.8% -14% 2% 9.0%Taiwan 0.34 2.8% -5% 3% 1.1%Philippines 0.33 2.8% 1% 10% 6.8%India 0.44 3.7% 17% 11% 19.9%

allFreshFruit2017 11.77 100.0% 9.1% 4.8% 6.3%Source:ITCTrademap;FreshIntelligenceanalysis

-

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

14,000,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Tonn

esperyear


AsianMarketImportGrowth2001-2017

India

Philippines

Taiwan

Thailand

Singapore

Malaysia

Indonesia

SouthKorea

VietNam

Japan

HongKong(net)

China

Asia’ssourcesoffreshfruitsupply

Asia62%

SouthernHemisphere

18%

USA10%

Europe1%

Other9%

ChinaImportgrowthofFreshFruitbyproduct2001-2017

-

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Tonnesperyear

Source:ChinaCustomsviaITCTrademap;FreshIntelligenceanalysis

ChinaImportGrowth2001-2017

Other

Pears

Blueberries

Avocados

Stonefruit

Apples

Cherries

Kiwifruit

Grapes

Citrus

Pineapples

Watermelons

Durians

Longan

DragonFruit

Bananas

ChinaImportsofTropicalFruit2001-2017

-

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Tonnesperyear


ChinaTropicalFruitImportGrowth2001-2017

Pineapples

Watermelons

Durians

Longan

DragonFruit

Bananas

2017 2017share 1yrchange 5yrtrend 10yrtrend000tonnes % % % %

Bananas 1,039 26.9% 17.1% 15.1% 12.4%DragonFruit 533 13.8% 1.3% -0.2% 18.2%Longan 529 13.7% 48.0% 7.7% 11.6%Durians 224 5.8% -23.3% -7.0% 5.5%Watermelons 188 4.9% -7.8% -5.5% -1.8%Pineapples 146 3.8% 43.2% 29.9% 33.5%Mangoes&mangosteens 77 2.0% 5.7% -11.1% 2.4%Tropical 2,737 71.0% 12.1% 4.8% 10.5%

ChinaImportsofTemperateFruit2001-2017

-

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Tonnesperyear


ChinaImportGrowthofTemperateFruit2001-2017

Pears

Blueberries

Avocados

Stonefruit

Apples

Cherries

Kiwifruit

Grapes

Citrus

2017 2017share 1yrchange 5yrtrend 10yrtrend000tonnes % % % %

Citrus 467 12.1% 57.9% 29.4% 21.7%Grapes 234 6.1% -7.3% 4.8% 18.3%Kiwifruit 113 2.9% -10.7% 18.5% 22.0%Cherries 182 4.7% 66.5% 37.1% 56.0%Apples 69 1.8% 2.6% 12.2% 5.5%Stonefruit 49 1.3% 9.6% 8.3% 21.7%Avocados 32 0.8% 27.9% 84.6% 171.5%Blueberries 12 0.3% 39.9% 38.3% 37.7%Pears 8 0.2% -7.9% 19.4% 111.3%Temperate 1,165 30.2% 24.3% 19.5% 21.3%

Includes avocados

China’simportflowsof3.86mtonnesoffreshfruit

122k t +50% 186k t

+47% 254k t -15%

76k t +7%

166k t -5%

China Imports 3.86 m t +10%

2.6 mt +9%

104k t -5%

114k t +200%

45k t +36% 152k t

+7%

In2017Chinaimported3.86milliontonnesoffreshfruit,+10%comparedtopreviousyear

SeasonalAnalysis–ImportsbyChina(fromoutsideAsia)•  Seasonal supply – Chilean cherries in January, grapes from February to May •  Peruvian grapes from January top April •  Australian grapes from March to June, then citrus from June to October •  South African citrus from June to October •  New Zealand kiwifruit from March to September •  European kiwifruit from November to March, and Spanish citrus February to May •  US citrus January to May, then cherries June to August. •  Egypt citrus March to June •  Ecuador bananas most of the year

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17

Tonn

esperm

onth


China-importsbymonthbysupplier(externalAsia)

Egypt

Ecuador

NewZealand

Australia

SouthAfrica

Peru

Chile

Europe

UnitedStates

South Africa

US

Chile

Australia

Egypt

Europe

FreshProduceTrendSummary• Modernconsumersareseekingfreshproduceatanytime

•  RetailersneedtosourceproductsgloballyifnotavailablewithinAsia•  Retailersaremodernizingroutestomarket

•  SouthernHemispheresuppliersareaddressingtheneedforcounter-seasonaltemperateproducethoughareneedingto:•  Overcomedistancescoveringhalftheworldtogetfreshproductstothemarket

•  Addressandmeetmarketaccessconditionsinmultiplemarkets•  Beexportfocused..producingmuchmorethantheirdomesticmarketsneed.

ThankYou

fresh fruit trend analysis, market share … · fresh fruit trend analysis, market share seasonal...

Documents