france, 1901-2006. annual growth rate of total population, rate of natural increase, rate of net...

France, 1901-2006.France, 1901-2006.Annual growth rate of total population, rate of natural Annual growth rate of total population, rate of natural

increase, rate of net migration increase, rate of net migration (per 1000 inhabitants).(per 1000 inhabitants).

Croatian Chamber of Economy Conference (19-20 June 2008) — Alain Parant (INED / Futuribles)

Source : Insee, 2008.

-35,0

-25,0

-15,0

-5,0

5,0

15,0

25,0

19

01

19

06

19

11

19

16

19

21

19

26

19

31

19

36

19

41

19

46

19

51

19

56

19

61

19

66

19

71

19

76

19

81

19

86

19

91

19

96

20

01

20

06

Rate

(p

er

10

00

in

hab

itan

ts)

Growth rate Net migration Natural increase

France, 1999. Total demographic contribution of foreign immigrants to the French population, 1960-1998, by period of

immigration (in thousands).


Source: M. Tribalat, Cudep / Ined 2005.

Total demographic contribution 6325Direct contribution 3521Indirect contribution 2804

Of which : Immigration 1960-69First generation 730Second generation 255Total 985

Immigration 1970-79First generation 939Second generation 40Total 979

Immigration 1980-89First generation 638

Immigration 1990-98First generation 202

France, 1960-1998.France, 1960-1998.Contribution to births of successive immigration waves of Contribution to births of successive immigration waves of

foreigners and repatriated French national. foreigners and repatriated French national.


Source: M. Tribalat, Cudep / Ined 2005.

France,1999. Population age-pyramid on January 1st.France,1999. Population age-pyramid on January 1st.Components of the demographic contribution of foreign Components of the demographic contribution of foreign

immigration 1960-1998 immigration 1960-1998 (in thousands)(in thousands). .


Source: M. Tribalat, Futuribles, 2008.

France, 2006.France, 2006.The ten occupations with the most severeThe ten occupations with the most severe

recruitment problems.recruitment problems.

Source : Assedic/Credoc, 2006.


0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Qualified bricklayers

Plasterers, carpenters and otherqualified construction workers

Cooks

Health care workers

Lorry and heavy trucks drivers

Sales representatives

Building caretakers and securityguards

Domestic helpers and child carers(including domestic carers)

Information technology professionals(excluding sales)

Workers and supervisors in hotels andrestaurants (waiters, headwaiters etc)

Proportion of vacancies difficult to fill ( %)

98530

30643

33342

21879

33554

19019

19383

34565

12121

29120

In boxes: numbers of vacancies in 2006

France, 2008.France, 2008.Population age-pyramid.Population age-pyramid.

((Provisional estimation on 1st January)Provisional estimation on 1st January)

Source : Insee, 2008.


Some developed countries, 1995-2050.Some developed countries, 1995-2050.Replacement immigration. Simulations and results. Replacement immigration. Simulations and results.

Source : United Nations, 2000.


Population Population Total Population Ratio

prospect 1998 prospect 1998 population aged 15-64 years 15-64/65+

Medium variant Migration 0 constant constant constant

SIM 1 SIM 2 SIM 3 SIM 4 SIM 5

France 525 0 1 473 5 459 93 794

Germany 11 400 0 17 838 25 209 188 497

Italy 660 0 12 944 19 610 119 684

United Kingdom 1 200 0 2 634 6 247 59 775European Union

(15)16 361 0 47 456 79 605 700 506

United States 41 800 0 6 384 17 967 592 757

Japan 0 0 170 141 33 487 553 495

Russian Federation 7 417 0 27 952 35 756 257 110

Republic of Korea - 450 0 1 509 6 426 5 148 928

France 10 0 27 99 1 705

Germany 207 0 324 458 3 427

Italy 12 0 235 357 2 176

United Kingdom 22 0 48 114 1 087European Union

(15)297 0 863 1 447 12 736

United States 760 0 116 327 10 777

Japan 0 0 312 609 10 064

Russian Federation 135 0 508 650 4 675

Republic of Korea -8 0 27 117 93 617

Annual net immigration (in thousands)

Net immigration (in thousands)

OECD countries, 2006. Employment/OECD countries, 2006. Employment/population ratio.population ratio.Persons aged 15-64 years Persons aged 15-64 years (percentages)(percentages)..


Source: OECD, 2008.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Turk

ey

Pola

nd

Hunga

ryIta

ly

Slov

ak R

epub

lic

Belgi

um

Mex

ico

Greec

e

Fran

ce

Euro

pe

Kore

a

Czech

Rep

ublic

Spai

n

Euro

pean

Uni

on 1

5

OECD c

ount

ries

Germ

any

Portu

gal

Irela

nd

Finla

nd

Japa

n

Austri

a

Unite

d St

ates

Austra

lia

Nethe

rland

s

Unite

d Ki

ngdo

m

Canad

a

Swed

en

New Z

eala

nd

Norway

Denm

ark

Switz

erla

nd

Icel

and

Em

plo

yme

nt/

po

pu

lati

on

ra

tio

(p

erc

en

tag

es)

OECD countries, 2006. Employment/OECD countries, 2006. Employment/population ratio.population ratio.Women aged 15-64 years Women aged 15-64 years (percentages)(percentages)..


Source: OECD, 2008.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Turk

ey

Mex

ico

Italy

Greec

e

Pola

nd

Hunga

ry

Slov

ak R

epub

lic

Kore

a

Belgi

umSp

ain

Czech

Rep

ublic

OECD c

ount

ries

Fran

ce

Euro

pean

Uni

on 1

5

Irela

nd

Japa

n

Germ

any

Portu

gal

Austri

a

Austra

lia

Nethe

rland

s

Unite

d St

ates

Unite

d Ki

ngdo

m

Finla

nd

New Z

eala

nd

Canad

a

Switz

erla

nd

Swed

en

Norway

Denm

ark

Icel

and

Em

plo

yme

nt/

po

pu

lati

on

ra

tio

(p

erc

en

tag

es)



Source: OECD, 2008.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Hunga

ry

Pola

nd

Greec

e

Fran

ceIta

ly

Slov

ak R

epub

lic

Belgi

umKo

rea

Czech

Rep

ublic

Turk

ey

Portu

gal

Euro

pean

Uni

on 1

5

Finla

nd

Japa

n

Spai

n

OECD c

ount

ries

Germ

any

Swed

en

Mex

ico

Irela

nd

Norway

Austri

a

Unite

d St

ates

Unite

d Ki

ngdo

m

Canad

a

New Z

eala

nd

Switz

erla

nd

Denm

ark

Austra

lia

Nethe

rland

s

Icel

and

Em

plo

yme

nt/

po

pu

lati

on

ra

tio

(p

erc

en

tag

es)



Source: OECD, 2008.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Pola

nd

Turk

ey

Belgi

um Italy

Slov

ak R

epub

lic

Hunga

ry

Austri

a

Fran

ce

Greec

e

Spai

n

Czech

Rep

ublic

Euro

pean

Uni

on 1

5

Nethe

rland

s

Germ

any

Portu

gal

OECD c

ount

ries

Irela

nd

Finla

nd

Mex

ico

Austra

lia

Canad

a

Unite

d Ki

ngdo

mKo

rea

Denm

ark

Unite

d St

ates

Japa

n

Switz

erla

nd

Norway

Swed

en

New Z

eala

nd

Icel

and

Em

plo

yme

nt/

po

pu

lati

on

ra

tio

(p

erc

en

tag

es)

OECD countries, 2000-2006. Employment/OECD countries, 2000-2006. Employment/population ratio.population ratio.Persons aged 55-64 years Persons aged 55-64 years (percentages)(percentages)..


Source: OECD, 2008.

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Em

plo

ym

ent/

popula

tion r

ati

o (

perc

enta

ges)

Belgium

Denmark

Finland

France

Germany

Italy

Japan

Spain

Sweden

United Kingdom

United States

France, 2005-2050. Total population prospects France, 2005-2050. Total population prospects (in thousands)(in thousands)..


Source: Insee 2006.

50000

55000

60000

65000

70000

75000

80000

85000

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Pop

ula

tion

(in

th

ou

san

ds)

FERT.MED.MORT.MED.MIG.ZERO. FERT.MED.MORT.MED.MIG.LOW. FERT.MED.MORT.MED.MIG.MED.FERT.MED.MORT.MED.MIG.HIGH. FERT.LOW.MORT.LOW.MIG.LOW. FERT.HIGH.MORT.HIGH.MIG.HIGH.

France, 2008-2050. Employment of France, 2008-2050. Employment of persons aged 15-64 years persons aged 15-64 years according to two extreme prospects of total population and according to two extreme prospects of total population and

two assumptions of employment/population ratiotwo assumptions of employment/population ratio(in thousands)(in thousands)..


Source: A. Parant, Futuribles, 2008.

20000

21000

22000

23000

24000

25000

26000

27000

28000

29000

30000

31000

32000

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

2030

2032

2034

2036

2038

2040

2042

2044

2046

2048

2050

Em

plo

yme

nt

(in

th

ou

san

ds)

"Low population"Employment/population ratio: 70%

"High population"Employment/population ratio: 70%

"High Population"Employment/population ratio: 62%


Employment 2006

France, 2008-2050. Employment of France, 2008-2050. Employment of persons aged 55-64 years persons aged 55-64 years according to two extreme prospects of total population and according to two extreme prospects of total population and

two assumptions of employment/population ratiotwo assumptions of employment/population ratio(in thousands)(in thousands)..


Source: A. Parant, Futuribles, 2008.

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

2030

2032

2034

2036

2038

2040

2042

2044

2046

2048

2050

Em

plo

ym

en

t (i

n t

hou

san

ds)


Employment 2006




United Kingdom, 2001-2007.United Kingdom, 2001-2007.Vacancies Vacancies (in thousands).(in thousands).


Source: ONS, seasonally adjusted vacancies, 2008.

france, 1901-2006. annual growth rate of total population, rate of natural increase, rate of net...

Documents

cudep ined

years percentages

total population prospects

french population

employment of persons

population agepyramid

period of immigration

replacement immigration