fractal maslow windows and the near-term colonization of mars bruce cordell, ph.d. 2012.8.3...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Fractal Maslow Windows and the Near-Term Colonization of Mars Bruce Cordell, Ph.D. 2012.8.3 21stCenturyWaves.com](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062408/56649f175503460f94c2d70e/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Fractal Maslow Windows and the Near-Term Colonization of Mars
Bruce Cordell, Ph.D.2012.8.3
21stCenturyWaves.com
![Page 2: Fractal Maslow Windows and the Near-Term Colonization of Mars Bruce Cordell, Ph.D. 2012.8.3 21stCenturyWaves.com](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062408/56649f175503460f94c2d70e/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
JFK’s 50th Moon Anniversary
May 25, 1961: “…this nation should commit itself to achieving the goal, before this decade is out, of landing a man on the moon and returning him safely to the earth.
Freeman Dyson, ISDC 2010:
‘Why have we been stuck in LEO
for 40 Years?’
![Page 3: Fractal Maslow Windows and the Near-Term Colonization of Mars Bruce Cordell, Ph.D. 2012.8.3 21stCenturyWaves.com](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062408/56649f175503460f94c2d70e/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Our Approach is Different
Long-Term
Empirical
Global
![Page 4: Fractal Maslow Windows and the Near-Term Colonization of Mars Bruce Cordell, Ph.D. 2012.8.3 21stCenturyWaves.com](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062408/56649f175503460f94c2d70e/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Preview• Apollo, the post-Apollo letdown, and the last 200
yrs of great explorations explained in terms of “critical states”
• Early Self-Sufficiency in deep space is essential– Maslow Windows close quickly
• Growth, Technology are the triggers…– Ebullience is the driver
• Our Window opens ~2015; next opens ~2071– Some urgency
![Page 5: Fractal Maslow Windows and the Near-Term Colonization of Mars Bruce Cordell, Ph.D. 2012.8.3 21stCenturyWaves.com](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062408/56649f175503460f94c2d70e/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Introduction
![Page 6: Fractal Maslow Windows and the Near-Term Colonization of Mars Bruce Cordell, Ph.D. 2012.8.3 21stCenturyWaves.com](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062408/56649f175503460f94c2d70e/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
The Patterns
Over the last 200+ years…
Twice-Per-Century Clusters of these exist:
• Great Explorations (e.g., Lewis and Clark)• Macro-Engineering Projects (e.g., Panama Canal)• Major Wars (e.g., World War I)
![Page 7: Fractal Maslow Windows and the Near-Term Colonization of Mars Bruce Cordell, Ph.D. 2012.8.3 21stCenturyWaves.com](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062408/56649f175503460f94c2d70e/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Standard Chartered Bank’s “Super-Cycles”
![Page 8: Fractal Maslow Windows and the Near-Term Colonization of Mars Bruce Cordell, Ph.D. 2012.8.3 21stCenturyWaves.com](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062408/56649f175503460f94c2d70e/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Why Should NASA Care?• A Framework for long-range planning and specific
Forecast Models
• A Marketing Theme – Space Exploration is the most recent manifestation of the tradition of Great Explorations that can be traced back to Lewis and Clark; And, they are always the result of economic booms
• A Morale Boost -- Timing is based on patterns (i.e., Maslow Windows) that are observed over the last 200+ years
![Page 9: Fractal Maslow Windows and the Near-Term Colonization of Mars Bruce Cordell, Ph.D. 2012.8.3 21stCenturyWaves.com](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062408/56649f175503460f94c2d70e/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Disney and Von Braun
The 1960sweretransformative…
![Page 10: Fractal Maslow Windows and the Near-Term Colonization of Mars Bruce Cordell, Ph.D. 2012.8.3 21stCenturyWaves.com](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062408/56649f175503460f94c2d70e/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
The Way We Were…
![Page 11: Fractal Maslow Windows and the Near-Term Colonization of Mars Bruce Cordell, Ph.D. 2012.8.3 21stCenturyWaves.com](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062408/56649f175503460f94c2d70e/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
The Way We Will Be
![Page 12: Fractal Maslow Windows and the Near-Term Colonization of Mars Bruce Cordell, Ph.D. 2012.8.3 21stCenturyWaves.com](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062408/56649f175503460f94c2d70e/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
The Maslow WindowEconomic Model
![Page 13: Fractal Maslow Windows and the Near-Term Colonization of Mars Bruce Cordell, Ph.D. 2012.8.3 21stCenturyWaves.com](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062408/56649f175503460f94c2d70e/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
It’s 1987. Why the smiles?
![Page 14: Fractal Maslow Windows and the Near-Term Colonization of Mars Bruce Cordell, Ph.D. 2012.8.3 21stCenturyWaves.com](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062408/56649f175503460f94c2d70e/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Great Exploration Events and MEPs: DefinitionsGreat Exploration Events are recognized by:1. Exploration of significantly new geographical sites
2. An international audience attracted by competition, nationalism, and/or danger
3. Often, the use of state-of-the-art technology
Macro-Engineering Projects (MEPs) are recognized by:1. Use of state-of-the-art technology, that is often improved
2. High cost ($ Multi B) and very large physical size
3. Ability to satisfy intangible needs of a spiritual or psychological nature, and to be highly inspiring (in addition to any practical purpose)
![Page 15: Fractal Maslow Windows and the Near-Term Colonization of Mars Bruce Cordell, Ph.D. 2012.8.3 21stCenturyWaves.com](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062408/56649f175503460f94c2d70e/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Compelling Clusters
Energy Peaks 1801 1857 1913 1969
Great Lewis & Clark/ Livingstone/ Peary/ Apollo/
Explorations N. America Africa Polar Moon
Macro-Engineering (Erie Canal) Suez Canal Panama Canal Apollo
Projects (MEP)
Major Wars Napoleanic Wars/ Civil War W.W. I Vietnam/
War of 1812 Cold War
![Page 16: Fractal Maslow Windows and the Near-Term Colonization of Mars Bruce Cordell, Ph.D. 2012.8.3 21stCenturyWaves.com](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062408/56649f175503460f94c2d70e/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
The 56 Yr Energy/Boom Cycle
From Hugh B. Stewart (1989), Recollecting the Future, Dow Jones-Irwin, Homewood, IL, pp. 64.
Replotted in Theodore Modis (1992) Predictions, Simon & Schuster, New York, pp. 148.
![Page 17: Fractal Maslow Windows and the Near-Term Colonization of Mars Bruce Cordell, Ph.D. 2012.8.3 21stCenturyWaves.com](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062408/56649f175503460f94c2d70e/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
The “Maslow Window” Model
• Rhythmic, twice-per-century economic booms occur (“Super-Cycle”)
• Widespread affluence (the “Great Prosperity”)
• Many ascend Maslow’s Hierarchy (“ebullience”); GEs and MEPs supported
• Some do not ascend Maslow’s Hierarchy (“animal spirits”)
![Page 18: Fractal Maslow Windows and the Near-Term Colonization of Mars Bruce Cordell, Ph.D. 2012.8.3 21stCenturyWaves.com](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062408/56649f175503460f94c2d70e/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Maslow Windows as “Critical States”
![Page 19: Fractal Maslow Windows and the Near-Term Colonization of Mars Bruce Cordell, Ph.D. 2012.8.3 21stCenturyWaves.com](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062408/56649f175503460f94c2d70e/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Are Maslow Windows Self Organized Criticality Phenomena?
• Punctuated Equilibria
• “Wars & GEs, like forest fires, are Fractal and SOC processes.” (MEP still TBD)
• Obey Bak’s Gap Equation– Agent-based model
• Large, unexpected changes from small triggers– “Avalanches”
![Page 20: Fractal Maslow Windows and the Near-Term Colonization of Mars Bruce Cordell, Ph.D. 2012.8.3 21stCenturyWaves.com](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062408/56649f175503460f94c2d70e/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Are Critical States Like Falling Grains of Sand?
![Page 21: Fractal Maslow Windows and the Near-Term Colonization of Mars Bruce Cordell, Ph.D. 2012.8.3 21stCenturyWaves.com](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062408/56649f175503460f94c2d70e/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Are Great Explorations Fractal?
![Page 22: Fractal Maslow Windows and the Near-Term Colonization of Mars Bruce Cordell, Ph.D. 2012.8.3 21stCenturyWaves.com](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062408/56649f175503460f94c2d70e/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Are Space Programs Like Wildfires and Wars?
Wernher von Braun (1948) compared the logistics of a manned mission to Mars to “…a minor military operation
extending over a limited theater of war.”
Roberts & Turcotte (1998): “A war must begin similar to the ignition of a forest … The frequency-size statistics are power law (fractal) … World order behaves as a SOC system independent of the efforts to stabilize interactions between people and countries.”
Are Apollo-level space programs likewise robust, SOC-driven systems?
![Page 23: Fractal Maslow Windows and the Near-Term Colonization of Mars Bruce Cordell, Ph.D. 2012.8.3 21stCenturyWaves.com](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062408/56649f175503460f94c2d70e/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Are Maslow Windows Predictable?
Near-Critical Potential Signatures Include:
• Financial Panics; e.g., Panics of 2008, 1893…
• Great Recessions; Great Recessions of 2008-10, 1890s…
• Major Economic Booms; e.g., 1899, 2014 (?)…
• Geopolitical Tensions/Conflicts; e.g., Cuban Missile Crisis, Spanish-American War…
A 21st Century “Sputnik Moment”?
![Page 24: Fractal Maslow Windows and the Near-Term Colonization of Mars Bruce Cordell, Ph.D. 2012.8.3 21stCenturyWaves.com](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062408/56649f175503460f94c2d70e/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
The 1960s As a “Critical State”• Sputnik (1957)• Cuban Missile Crisis• Peace Corps• Apollo Moon Program• Civil Rights Movement• Vietnam
Yale Sociologist Gary Brewer: During Apollo,
NASA was “a perfect place.”
![Page 25: Fractal Maslow Windows and the Near-Term Colonization of Mars Bruce Cordell, Ph.D. 2012.8.3 21stCenturyWaves.com](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062408/56649f175503460f94c2d70e/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
A Maslow Case Study: 1890-1913
![Page 26: Fractal Maslow Windows and the Near-Term Colonization of Mars Bruce Cordell, Ph.D. 2012.8.3 21stCenturyWaves.com](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062408/56649f175503460f94c2d70e/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Forecasts and Issues
![Page 27: Fractal Maslow Windows and the Near-Term Colonization of Mars Bruce Cordell, Ph.D. 2012.8.3 21stCenturyWaves.com](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062408/56649f175503460f94c2d70e/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Greatest Global Boom – 7/23/07
![Page 28: Fractal Maslow Windows and the Near-Term Colonization of Mars Bruce Cordell, Ph.D. 2012.8.3 21stCenturyWaves.com](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062408/56649f175503460f94c2d70e/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
A Few Forecasts: 2015 - 2025
• The Great Boom of 2015– Required trigger for Maslow Window
• A Great Exploration in Space– “Sputnik-like” competitors?– A “Grand Alliance for Space”?
• A Primary MEP, w Secondary MEPs– E.g., manned Mars, solar power, space tourism
– Cost ~ 10x Apollo
• A Major 2020s War– An early war could eliminate GE/MEP events.
![Page 29: Fractal Maslow Windows and the Near-Term Colonization of Mars Bruce Cordell, Ph.D. 2012.8.3 21stCenturyWaves.com](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062408/56649f175503460f94c2d70e/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
The Trajectory of Great Explorations
Lewis and Clark/NW U.S.
Dr. Livingstone/Eq Africa
Peary/Amundsen/Poles
Apollo/Moon
What’s Next? Or ?
![Page 30: Fractal Maslow Windows and the Near-Term Colonization of Mars Bruce Cordell, Ph.D. 2012.8.3 21stCenturyWaves.com](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062408/56649f175503460f94c2d70e/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
What About the Moon?
“The Moon will never motivate the American people again.” (1984)Tom Paine, NASA Admin 1968-70
• Star Trek: The Next Generation
• ISS Model and Interspace
• “The potential for cultural shock and social disorganization…”
The “Earth” Model or the “Moon” Model?
![Page 31: Fractal Maslow Windows and the Near-Term Colonization of Mars Bruce Cordell, Ph.D. 2012.8.3 21stCenturyWaves.com](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062408/56649f175503460f94c2d70e/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
What Explorations Will Work?
• A Great Exploration• Program Culminates by 2025 or before• Early Self-Sufficiency in deep space
CandidatesZubrin SpaceX Mars
Aldrin; Russia/China Phobos
Davies 1-Way MarsInternational Moon Base w In Situ Resources
![Page 32: Fractal Maslow Windows and the Near-Term Colonization of Mars Bruce Cordell, Ph.D. 2012.8.3 21stCenturyWaves.com](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062408/56649f175503460f94c2d70e/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
Who’s the Next Space President?
![Page 33: Fractal Maslow Windows and the Near-Term Colonization of Mars Bruce Cordell, Ph.D. 2012.8.3 21stCenturyWaves.com](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062408/56649f175503460f94c2d70e/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
Summary
• 2015-2025: analog of the transformative1960s/1900s “critical states”
• The key: early self-sufficiency in deep space – because support ends abruptly
• One wildcard: timing of projected major war in 2020s
• After 2025, next Maslow Window of opportunity is between 2071 – 2081.
Can Humanity Afford to Wait?