forex markets & managing risks in forex business

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Forex Markets & Managing Risks in Forex Business

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Page 1: Forex markets & managing risks in forex business

Forex Markets & Managing Risks in Forex Business

Page 2: Forex markets & managing risks in forex business

Exchange Rate Arithmetic

Page 3: Forex markets & managing risks in forex business

Exchange Rate It reflects how much a currency values to another currency. It

is the rate at which one currency is converted in to another currency.

Exchange rate codes are expressed in 6 letter currency codes.

e. g.; USD/CHF ; GBP/USD; USD/ INR

In the first place : it is base currency code and quotations are expressed in units of the second currency against one unit of the first currency.

05/01/23

Page 4: Forex markets & managing risks in forex business

Currency Quotes

05/01/23

Page 5: Forex markets & managing risks in forex business

Currency QuotesWhat are Direct Quotes & Indirect Quotes ?

Direct Quote : system of expressing exchange rate for 1 unit of foreign currency in units of home currency i.e USD/INR = 52.50/52

Indirect Quote : system of expressing exchange rate of a unit of local currency in units of foreign currency i.e EUR/USD = 1.5930/ 35

Page 6: Forex markets & managing risks in forex business

Currency Quotes-combined CurrencyAll currencies are valued against the US Dollar.

A EUR / INR trade involves two legs since Euro cannot be directly converted to INR and vice-versa.EUR / INR = (EUR/USD)*(USD/INR)

If market quotes:

EUR / USD=1.2579 / 1.2582 & USD / INR=55.67 / 55.68then spot conversion rate of Euro to Rupee will be:

For an import transaction: 1.2582 * 55.68 = 70.0565

For an export transaction: 1.2579* 55.67 = 70.0273

05/01/23

Page 7: Forex markets & managing risks in forex business

Currency Quotes-combined Currency CONTD

All currencies are valued against the US Dollar.

A JPY / INR trade involves two legs since JPY cannot be directly converted to INR and vice-versa

JPY / INR = (USD / INR) / (USD / JPY)

If market quotes:USD/JPY=79.44/79.45 USD/INR=55.67/55.68

then spot conversion rate of JPY to Rupee will be:

For an import transaction: (55.68/79.44)*100 = 70.09

For an export transaction: (55.67/79.45)*100 = 70.07

05/01/23

Page 8: Forex markets & managing risks in forex business

Value Date - Time ScaleTime Scale

Cash Tom Spot Forward Maturities

Cash Deal is done today for delivery Today

Tom Deal is done today for delivery Tomorrow

Spot Deal is done today for delivery on 2nd Business Day

Forward Deal is done today for delivery beyond Spot Date

Page 9: Forex markets & managing risks in forex business

Forward Premium/Discount• When settlement date is beyond the spot date, it is called a forward

transaction.• In an exchange rate pair, the currency with lower interest rate will be

at premium • In an exchange rate pair, the currency with higher interest rate will be

at a discount • Forward premiums are a function of interest rate differential between

the two currencies of the pair• Since USD/INR spot & fwd rates are not purely market determined,

they also depend upon the demand and supply• More dollar inflow than outflow leads to a stronger rupee while net

dollar outflow leads to a weaker rupee.• More demand from importers in the forward market raises the forward

premium whereas, presence of more number of exporters leads to softening of forward premiums

05/01/23

Page 10: Forex markets & managing risks in forex business

Communication/Convention• Import transaction: Customer to buy– outward• Export transaction: Customer to sell– inward

• In a currency pair, it’s the base currency that is traded

Eg.1 Mio EUR/USD means 1 mio euro 1 Mio USD/JPY means 1 mio US dollar

• Mine – I Buy from you• Yours – I sell to you• Off - Rate no more valid

05/01/23

Page 11: Forex markets & managing risks in forex business

Forward Rate Calculation

• If the current market quote on 1st June,12 is Spot USD/INR= 55.75/55.76

Swap Cash spot= 2.00/2.50 Tom Spot= 1.00/1.50 June = 7.00/8.00

Value Date Import Txn Export Txn03.06.2012 55.76 55.750030.06.2012 55.84 55.820002.06.2012 55.75 55.7350

01.06.2012 55.74 55.7250

05/01/23

Page 12: Forex markets & managing risks in forex business

Forward Rate CalculationSpot USD/INR= 55.75/55.76 EUR/USD= 1.2579/1.2582Swap INR-June= 7.00/8.00 EUR-June= (-)0.0001/(-)0.0002

EUR/INR Forward rate for value date 30.06.2011

For import transaction: (1.2582 - 0.0001) * (55.76+0.08) = 70.2523

For export transaction:(1.2579-0.0002)* (55.75 +0.07) = 70.2048

05/01/23

Page 13: Forex markets & managing risks in forex business

Why need hedging ??

Page 14: Forex markets & managing risks in forex business

USD/INR

Page 15: Forex markets & managing risks in forex business

Gained by 12% from June’02 level of 49.07 to 43.28 in Apr’04

Crest and Troughs of USDINR

Gained by 17% from July’06 level of 47.04 to 39.23 in Nov’07

Lost by 33% from Feb’08 level of 39.33 to 52.18 in Mar’09

Lost by 24% from Jul’11 level of 43.86 to 54.30 in Dec’11

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Page 16: Forex markets & managing risks in forex business

USD 6-M LIBOR

Page 17: Forex markets & managing risks in forex business

INR-SENSEX

Page 18: Forex markets & managing risks in forex business

INR-NIFTY

Page 19: Forex markets & managing risks in forex business

WHY DO THEY MOVE• Causes for Volatility

– Nature Of Market» Size, Market Place, Regulatory Control,

Technical Analysis Models– Economic Factors

» Data, Events, Fundamentals» Interest Rates; Carry Trades

– Local Factors ( $/INR)» Demand & Supply; Capital Flows» RBI, Political Climate

Page 20: Forex markets & managing risks in forex business

DERIVATIVES

EXCHANGE TRADEDA)CURRENCY- FUTURES

OVER THE COUNTER(OTC)A)FOREX- FWDS-OPTIONS-SWAPS

B)CREDIT –CDS

DERIVATIVE PRODUCTS

Page 21: Forex markets & managing risks in forex business

HEDGING PRODUCTS

Common Derivative Products

Forwards-USD/INR, Cross,

Options-Put, Call & Combinations

Swaps -Principal, Interest & Both

Futures-Currency, Equity

Credit Derivatives-CDS

Common Underlying Assets

Commodities, Equity Shares

Foreign Exchange Revenue Flows ( Imports, Exports )

Assets & Liabilities ( Foreign Currency Loans & Deposits)

Interest Rate Exposures ( Foreign Currency Loans & Deposits)

Page 22: Forex markets & managing risks in forex business

TYPES OF EXPOSURE AND HEDGING PRODUCT

EXPOSURE RISK HEDGING PRODUCT

ECB/ BUYERS CREDIT/FCTL

EXCHANGE RISK POS, CALL SPREAD, CALL OPTION, FORWARD CONTRACT, RANGE FORWARD ETC

INTEREST RATE RISK IRS, FRA, CAP

EXPORTS EXCHANGE RISK FORWARDS/PUT OPTION/RANGE FORWARDS

IMPORTS/FCDL EXCHANGE RISK FORWARDS/CALL OPTIONS/ RANGE FORWARD

Page 23: Forex markets & managing risks in forex business

FORWARD CONTRACTS• A CONTRACT TO BUY OR SELL A SPECIFIED AMOUNT OF CURRENCY AT A SPECIFIED

PRICE FOR A SPECIFIC FUTURE DATE.• BOTH A RIGHT AND AN OBLIGATION TO BUY OR SELL• ADVANTAGE:

– SIMPLE , LIQUID , TRANSPARENT – REQUIRES NO OUTLAY OF FUNDS UPFRONT.

– WINDOW OPTION OF 30 DAYS

• DISADVANTAGE: – NO PARTICIPATION IN MARKET VOLATILITY– PROFIT AND LOSS ONLY CRYSTALLIZED ON DUE DATE– OPPORTUNITY PROFIT / OPPORTUNITY LOSS UNLIMITED

Page 24: Forex markets & managing risks in forex business

FORWARD CONTRACTS

47.50 52.0050.50

EXPORTER: SPOT: 50.00 + 3M FWD 0.50 Ps

RIGHT: PROTECTED RANGE

OBLIGATION:OPPORTUNITY LOSS RANGE

Page 25: Forex markets & managing risks in forex business

• Rate Calculation:– Exports/Imports Bid / Ask– Cash/Tom/Spot

• Forward Rates– Example: Spot Rate:50.00/01

FORWARD CONTRACTS

PERIOD PREMIUM FWD. RATE

1 MONTH 0.30/0.31 50.30/50.32

2 MONTHS 0.40/0.41 50.40/50.42

3 MONTHS 0.50/0.51 50.50/50.52

Page 26: Forex markets & managing risks in forex business

OPTIONS

Page 27: Forex markets & managing risks in forex business

OPTIONSA CONTRACT WHEREBY THE BUYER ACQUIRES RIGHT BUT NOT OBLIGATION

TO PURCHASE / SELL A SPECIFIED ASSET AT A PRE-DETERMINED PRICE ON A

SPECIFIED DATE. (EUROPEAN OPTION)• ADVANTAGE:

– OPPORTUNITY PROFIT UNLIMITED– OPPORTUNITY LOSS LIMITED TO THE PREMIUM PAID

• DISADVANTAGE:– PRICING LESS TRANSPARENT THAN FORWARD.

FACTOR OF A) SPOT B) STRIKE C) MATURITY D) INT. DIFF E) VOLATILITY – UPFRONTPREMIUM PAYMENT.– SPECIFIC DATE MATURITY- NOWINDOW OPTION

Page 28: Forex markets & managing risks in forex business

OPTION

47.5052.0050.50

ATM

1.00

RIGHT: PROTECTED RANGE

NO OBLIGATION:OPPORTUNITY PROFIT RANGE

EXPORTER: SPOT: 50.00 + 3M FWD 0.50 Ps

Page 29: Forex markets & managing risks in forex business

OPTIONS- GLOSSARY

• CALL OPTION

• PUT OPTION

• OPTION BUYER

• OPTION SELLER

• EXPIRATION

• STRIKE RATE

• IN THE MONEY

• OUT OF MONEY

• AT THE MONEY

• AMERICAN OPTION

• EUROPEAN OPTION

• PREMIUM

Page 30: Forex markets & managing risks in forex business

HOW TO CHOOSE?

Confidence High Low

View Buyer of USD Seller of USD Buyer of USD Seller of USD

INR Appreciating against USD

Keep exposure open Book forward Buy a Call Buy a Put

INR Depreciating against USD Book forward

Keep exposure

openBuy a Call Buy a Put

Page 31: Forex markets & managing risks in forex business

RANGE FORWARD OPTION FOR IMPORTERS

44.5045.82 48.50

47.65

RANGE FORWARD

45.35

Spot

Sell put

Buy call

Page 32: Forex markets & managing risks in forex business

Scenario Analysis : If, on maturity date-USD/INR is between 45.35 and 47.65 , Customer buys USD at market rates.USD/INR is above 47.65, Customer has the right to buy the USD notional at 47.65USD/INR is below 45.35, Customer has to buy the USD notional at 45.35

Page 33: Forex markets & managing risks in forex business

SWAPSExchange of future cash flows at pre-determined ratesBank meets Customer’s obligations of principal & / or

interest in the designated currency as per amortization

Customer pays the Bank in INR for the obligations at a pre-determined rate and thus is hedged against risks

Common Swap: FCNB loans, where customer is exchanging his INR cash flows to Foreign Currency cash flows (Assumes FC risk and if hedged exchanging USD cash flows to INR cash flows)

Page 34: Forex markets & managing risks in forex business

Bank A

USD Cash Flows

Corporate

USDLiability

INR Cash Flows @ spot(pays premium %)

PRINCIPAL ONLY SWAP

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Bank

Bank PaysFloating Interest Rate

6mL(1.20)+300

Corp Pays Fixed $ Interest Rate

5.00%

Corporate

INTEREST RATE SWAP

Page 36: Forex markets & managing risks in forex business

USD Cash Flows

USD Liability(FCL)

INR Cash Flows @ spot

CIRS

Pays Floating Interest Rate (L+450)

Corp Pays Rs Fixed Interest Rate

9.50%

BANK CORPORATE

USD loan converted into a INR loan synthetically

Page 37: Forex markets & managing risks in forex business

INR- Foreign Currency Swap

•Company should have a natural hedge.•If natural hedge is not their than INR-FCY swap is restricted to listed companies or unlisted companies with a minimum net worth of Rs 200 crore.•Once cancelled, shall not be rebooked •Leveraged structure not allowed•Notional Principal amount of swap should not exceed the outstanding amount of underlying.•Maturity of swap should not exceed remaining maturity of underlying

Cost reduction structure

•Restricted to listed companies and their subsidaries/joint ventures/associates having common treasury & consolidated balance sheet •Or unlisted companies with minimum net worth of Rs 200 crore.•Accounting standards with the principle of recognition of expected losses and non-recognition unrealized gains.•Disclosure are made in financial statements•Specific clause in risk management policy that allows using of types of cost reduction structures.•Leveraged structures, barriers, range accruals and exotic products not permitted

Page 38: Forex markets & managing risks in forex business

Forward Contract & FCY-INR option

Contracted Exposures

•Full particulars of the contracts should be marked on the original documents under proper authentication , where it is not possible to obtain original documents, a copy of original documents duly certified may be obtained.

•Maximum period of 15 days may be allowed for production of the underlying document.

•The Currency , Tenor & maturity of hedge should be in line with underlying exposure, where currency of hedge is different from currency of underlying exposure, the risk management policy should permit such hedging

•Exporters are allowed to cancel and rebook 25% of their annual Forward contracts.

•Long term contracts can be cancelled with one bank and rebooked with another bank but to be done simultaneously on maturity date.

Page 39: Forex markets & managing risks in forex business

Past performance :

Cost reduction structure : Companies with net worth of Rs 200 crore and annual export/ import turnover exceeding Rs 1000 crores may be allowed subject to satisfying other guidelines in this regard.

•Limit : Import : Limit to be reduced to 25% of eligible limit•Limit can not be reinstated either on cancellation or on maturity of the contract.

•Forwards booked under this facility should be on fully deliverable basis. In case of cancellation, exchange gains, if any, should not be passed to customer (both for exporter & importer)

•Higher limits may be permitted but after approval from RBI.

•Rollovers are also not permitted.

•Contract in excess of 50% of eligible limit may be permitted on obtaining (a) certificate from statutory auditor of the customer that all guidelines have been adhered to while utilizing the facility (b) Certificate of import/export turnover of the customer during past 3 years duly certified by the statutory auditor.

Page 40: Forex markets & managing risks in forex business

Setting up of Derivative Limit

• Sanctioned limit is a must for any deal• Total requirements for various types of FCs and derivatives should

be considered.• May consider total Balance Sheet exposures including exposures of

other banks.• Separate limits should be calculated for Imports and Exports• CEL arrived at by applying suitable CCFs• One limit to be sanctioned for both Contracted and Probable

exposures

Page 41: Forex markets & managing risks in forex business

Short term (upto 1 year) exposures

Existing units: Average of last three years turnover or last year’s turnover whichever is higher

Units having orders *} Limits to be assessed basedMore than eligibility*} on documentary evidence available.

New units*: A suitable CEL based on CMA

*The limit would be made available on production of documentary evidence.

Long term (over 1 year) exposures

Only on documentary evidence basisAs per Exchange/Interest exposure in particular maturity slot

Page 42: Forex markets & managing risks in forex business

Residual Maturity Conversion Factor

Applied on notional Principal amount

  Interest Rate Swap

Currency Swap

One year or less 0.5% 2.0%Over one year to 5 years 1.0% 10.0%

Over 5 years 3.0% 15.0%

Credit Conversion Factor

Credit Exposure Limit (CEL) = CCE + PFE; CCE = Current Credit Exposure; sum of negative MTMs of outstanding

contracts PFE = Potential Future Exposure; notional times the applicable credit

conversion factor

In case limit is breached the owner of account has to take call on whether to stop booking or ask for additional security. Example

Page 43: Forex markets & managing risks in forex business

Total of all outstanding transactions at any point of time should not exceed the notional limit amount, in any case. Available limit (CEL) at any point of time may be calculated as under:

Contracted Exposure (Documentary Evidence) Method :

Available Limit = Sanctioned Limit – (CCE + PFE of outstanding contracts)

Probable Exposures based on Past Performance :

Available Limit = Sanctioned Limit – PFE of FCs booked during the FY - (CCE+PFE of outstanding FCs)

Page 44: Forex markets & managing risks in forex business

Past performance limits once utilized are not be reinstated either on cancellation or on maturity of the contracts.

Aggregate contracts booked during the financial year and outstanding at any point of time should not exceed the Past Performance eligibility, separately for imports and exports, subject to availability of CEL

It is advisable to closely monitor the MTM and also to ensure that the –ve MTM has been factored to arrive at the overall indebtedness

To help branches in monitoring the credit risk derivative MTMs are made available at daily basis and for forwards the MTM is made available in liability account on weekly basis.

MTMs are also available in Global Markets report module (http://10.1.14.65:2525/SBI) the following day, which may be used for monitoring purpose.

Monitoring of Limit

Page 45: Forex markets & managing risks in forex business

Changes in the regulatory guidelines

FORWARDS: RBI circular dt 15th December 2011• Contracted exposure : Forward contracts booked by residents irrespective of the type and tenor

of the underlying exposure, once cancelled, cannot be rebooked.( Relaxed vide RBI circular dated 31st July 2012, Exporter are allowed to cancel & rebook forward contracts to the extent of 25% of the contracts booked in financial year)

FEDAI CLARIFICATION a) Only applicable to FCs involving Rupee as one of the currenciesb) Rollover (simultaneous cancellation and rebooking) allowed subject to maturity of hedge cannot

exceed maturity of underlyingc) Any unhedged position as on the date of the circular is allowed to be hedged but once cancelled, it

cannot be rebooked• Probable Exposure: - All FCs booked will be on fully deliverable basis. In case of cancellations, exchange gain , if any,

should not be passed on to the customer.- For importers availing PP facility, the facility stands reduced to 25% of the limitFEDAI CLARIFICATION a) Short term rollovers are permitted to align the maturity of the contract to that of the underlying

exposureb) Restriction on cancellation is applicable to contracts booked henceforthc) Cross-currency deals can be cancelled and exchange gains can be passed on45

Page 46: Forex markets & managing risks in forex business

Changes in the regulatory guidelines

DERIVATIVES: ‘Comprehensive Guidelines on Derivatives’ was modified by RBI on 2nd August 2011 and 2nd November 2011.

The revised guidelines which were applicable from 01st January 2012 have made a distinction between generic and structured derivative products.

Following instruments fall under the category of Generic derivative products –1. Forex Forward Contracts 2. Forward Rate Agreements 3. Interest rate caps and floors (plain vanilla only) 4. Plain Vanilla Options (call option and put option) 5. Interest Rate Swaps 6. Currency Swaps including Cross-Currency Swaps Structured derivative products have been defined as: 1. Instruments which are combinations of either cash instrument and one or

more generic derivative products.2. Instruments which are combination of two or more generic derivative

products.

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Page 47: Forex markets & managing risks in forex business

Before offering any derivative product to clients, banks should obtain Board resolution from the corporate which

a) explicitly mentions the limit assigned by the corporate to the bank. While monitoring this limit, bank would take into account absolute notional amount of all outstanding derivative contracts entered into by the corporate with the bank. In other words, notionals of long and short positions will not be netted for the purpose of compliance with the limit.

b) mentions the names and designation of the officials of the company authorised to undertake particular derivative transactions on behalf of the company.

c) specifies the names of the people to whom transactions should be reported by the bank. These personnel should be distinct from those authorized to undertake the transactions.

d) mentions the names and designation of person(s) authorised to sign the ISDA and similar agreements;

e) mentions specific products that can be transacted by the designated officials named therein.

It should be ensured that the Board resolution submitted by the company is signed by a person other than the persons authorized to undertake the transactions. 47

Page 48: Forex markets & managing risks in forex business

Banks are required to obtain Board resolution from the corporate which wants to deal in structured derivatives products that states the following:

i) The corporate has in place a Risk Management Policy approved by its Board which contains the following:

• Guidelines on risk identification, measurement and control • Guidelines and procedures to be followed with respect to revaluation and

monitoring of positions • Designation of officials authorized to undertake transactions and limits per

transaction assigned to them and a requirement that the assignment of limits to an official would be on per transaction basis

• Accounting policy and disclosure norms to be followed in respect of derivative transactions

• A requirement to disclose the MTM valuations appropriately • A requirement to ensure separation of duties between front, middle and back

office• Mechanism regarding reporting of data to the Board including financial position of

transaction etc ii) The corporate has laid down clear guidelines for conducting the transactions and

institutionalised the arrangements for a periodical review of operations and annual audit of transactions to verify compliance with the regulations.

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Page 49: Forex markets & managing risks in forex business

E- Circular No 647/2012-13 on Comprehensive guidelines on Derivatives

• Branch has to obtain Board resolution from existing / prospective derivative customer in line with RBI guidelines in this regard vide their circular dated 02nd Nov 2011

•Concurrent auditor/ authorised official at branch has to certify that the resolution conforms to the RBI guidelines.

•Relationship Manager to forward the resolution along with concurrent auditor’s certificate to RTMU(before entering any fresh derivative), who in turn will forward it to SSB Mumbai.

•At SSB Mumbai the resolution will again be vetted by concurrent auditor.

•Further as a onetime exercise, branch has to get all the available resolution certified from Branch Concurrent Auditors / authorised officers for all customers having outstanding derivative contracts as well as all active customers irrespective of derivative contracts are outstanding or not and forward the same to RTMU for onward submission to SSB.

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Customer Appropriateness & Suitability Policy

Page 51: Forex markets & managing risks in forex business

Margin Matrix

Transaction Margin is the margin over ruling inter-bank rate based on credit rating and pricing ability in respect of customer;

Volume Margin is the Margin arising from volume of transactions which would enable the Dealing Room to leverage on customer volumes to move the marke

Assessment of Transaction Margin: It is based on three parameters:

1. Credit Rating 2. Wallet Share 3. Size of the transaction

The ownership of transaction margin is with Branch. The responsibility of deciding Transaction Margin to be charged from individual customer / specific deal lie with Relationship Managers.

Page 52: Forex markets & managing risks in forex business

Some Important point

•Information sharing: sharing of unhedged position

•Requirement of ISDA : Not required for FC upto one year, Required for any other OTC derivative including more than one year forward.

•CAS : Not required for FC. Required for any other derivative.(but required for SME)

•Booking of FC beyond maturity date : In case of delay in realization banks can permit customer to book FC 15 days beyond maturity date of underlying or month end whichever is later.

Page 53: Forex markets & managing risks in forex business

Important circular

•RBI Master circular on risk management & Inter-Bank Dealings dated 02nd July 2012

•RBI comprehensive guidelines on derivatives dated 02nd Nov 2011(board resolution & risk management policy)

•E-circular no 739/2008-09 dated 16th March 2009(Limit/ CAS)

•RBI Circular on Risk Management & Inter Bank dealings dated 31st July 2012 (25% churning allowed for exporter)

•Bank’s Combined Derivative Trading Policy

• FD circular 36/2006-07 (Margin Matrix)

•FEDAI clarification on RBI circular dt 15.12.2011 on restriction on churning

•RBI Guidelines dt 21st Nov 2012 on unhedged exposure

•E-circular dated 647/2012-13 on modification of derivative guidelines (Board resolution)

Page 54: Forex markets & managing risks in forex business

THANK YOU

                                                 

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