Forestry Project

Bewertung von Senken - Technologien

Forestry Project, IIASA

April 2003, Graz

Forestry Project

Input Datasets

C-flux Algorithms

C-flux Spatial Locator

GISDatabase

2

1

222

2_

222_

22

1

1

ROSROsLeak

SROsLeakLeakSROs

Leak

RORO

2

1

222_

2

222_

2

_

ROSROsSROs

DetATransTrans

totTransRO

DetA

DisConDetNPPAntDetNPPdt

dV

Spatial Accounting Concept

Forestry Project

Geographical Distribution of Terrestrial Sinks/Sources in 1990 – Baseline!

Value

Sink

Source

Forestry Project

Biomass&

waste

Carbon Dioxide

Carbon to Permanent Storage

forests grasslands & shrubs

Aquatic ecosystem

s

agricultureplantations

Energy Carries

Forest, Plastics and Fibre Products

Electricity and Heat

Products based on Molecular carbon

Durable Products

Forestry Project

BECS-toolbox

Land Use/cover

Biomass Productivity

Ancillary Cost / Technology data

Hydrogen

Biomass Products

Electricity and Heat

Sequestered carbon20502000

2100

Global Carbon Cycle

Forestry Project

Hydrogen Costs and CO2 Taxes

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

0 100 200 300 400 500

Carbon tax ($/tC)

Hy

dro

ge

n c

os

t ($

/GJ

-H2

)

SMR(Base case)

SMR-R(w. carbon scrubbing)

SMR(size x 10)

SMR-R(size x 10)

BHP(Base case )

BHP-R(w. carbon scrubbing)

BHP-R(CO2 x 2)

Makihira et al. (2002)

Forestry Project

Carbon permitElectricityElectricity Pulp / paper

Biomass

Energy Market

Policy

Climate PolicySector Policy /

Technology

Land use Policy

Forestry Project

Situation

• Biomassebasierte Negative Emissions technologien sind noch nicht kompetitiv

• Hauptgruende:

– Limitierte Scalenertraege

– Technologisches Lernen

Forestry Project

Langfristige Perspektive

• Biomassedominiertes Globales Energiesystem

• Hedging Technologie bzgl. Stabilisierung

• Kurzfristige Schritte: “buy down” costs (technology policies):

– Demonstrationsanlagen

– R&D

– Capacity building (besonders auf der Biomasseproduktionsseite)