APEC Center for Technology Foresight www.apecforesight.org

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Regional Foresight in Science Technology and InnovationNares DamrongchaiExecutive DirectorAPEC Center for Technology ForesightNational Science Technology and Innovation Policy Office (STI)

19 September 2011 @ San Francisco

Nares Damrongchai @APEC Center for Technology Foresight 2

Mission of APEC CTF

RESEARCH

CONSULTING

TRAINING&CONFERENCES

Towards “Best Practice” in Technology ForesightTowards “Best Practice” in Technology Foresight

Best information available

Policy Decision

Anticipatory intelligence

Foresight

APEC Center for Technology Foresight www.apecforesight.org

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patterns

+

signals

new context

©2011 Dr. Nares Damrongchai 5

Achieving Impact

• Informing regional and national government policy; e.g. Low Carbon Society

• Informing research agenda and government spending; e.g. Nanotechnology

• Changing governance structure; e.g. Forensic Science

Photograph from iStockphoto.com

Futures of Low Carbon SocietyNares Damrongchai

Real-time Delphi

• APEC Delphi Committee formulated 34 statements about the future

• 78 from 5 regions (Af, Am, As, Eu, Oc) invited to respond

• Used as key input to scenario building

6Photograph from iStockphoto.com

Futures of Low Carbon SocietyNares Damrongchai

Climate change and its impact

Migration, rural life, and natural resources

Society and health

Trade of goods and services

Housing, construction, urban life, transportation

http://www.lcs2050.com/

Participating member economies

1. Hong Kong, China2. Malaysia3. Korea4. Indonesia5. Philippines6. New Zealand7. Canada8. Japan9. Australia10. Vietnam11. Chinese Taipei12. Singapore13. China14. Russia15. Thailand16. United States

• Macao, China• United Kingdom• Germany

APEC

Non-APEC

Smart Grid Initiative• A smart grid is an electricity network that uses digital

and other advanced technologies to monitor and manage the transport of electricity from all generation sources to meet the varying electricity demand of end-users.

[Technology Roadmap: Smart Grids, IEA (2011)]

But first we need to assess what

technology we need most

Source of photo: UNDP photo library

technology need assessment

Developing countries need technology development &

transfer to move to LCS

ASEAN’s Future of Science, Technology, and Innovation: 2015 and Beyond

Source: World Bank, 2010

ASEA

N ASEAN’sKnowledgeEconomyIndex

APEC Center for Technology Foresight www.apecforesight.org

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Krabi Initiative 2010:Science Technology and Innovation (STI) for a Competitive , Sustainable and Inclusive ASEAN

STI Enculturation

Public-Private Partnership

Platform

Bottom-of-the -Pyramid (BOP)

Focus

Youth-focused Innovation

STI for Green Society

Organisational restructure for a meaningful delivery of STI agenda in ASEAN

ASEAN Innovation for Global Market

Green Technology

Digital Economy, New Media & Social Network

Science and Innovation for Life

Biodiversity for Health & Wealth

Energy Security

Water Management

Food Security

Thematic Tracks

Develop mechanisms to pursue partnerships and cooperation with other stakeholders in STI

Paradigm Shifts

ASEAN 2015 – Vision of ASEAN Leaders

Rationale Roles of STI – A Balance between Competitiveness and Human Development (People-oriented STI)

Reinventing ASEAN Scientific Community for a Meaningful Delivery of STI Agenda in ASEAN

Courses of Action

Enhance ASEAN Plan of Action on S&T for 2012-2015 and leverage the recommendations of the Krabi Retreat for development of future APAST beyond 2015

Implement monitoring and evaluation mechanism for the implementation of STI thematic tracks

Source: National Science Technology and Innovation Policy Office - Thailand, December 2010

From “OpenSpace” Workshop, Bangkok

From “OpenSpace” Workshop, Bangkok

From “OpenSpace” Workshop, Bangkok

The Project in a Nutshell

Jakarta, Indonesia

Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

Bangkok, Thailand

Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

Manila, Philippines

Singapore

Phase 1 PAST

Phase 2 Present

Phase 3 Future

Evolution of innovation system in Southeast

Asian context

City innovation system in the contemporary

Southeast Asian Megacities

City innovation foresight, paradigm and

policy development

Designing “City Innovation System”

CISIndividualSocial group

KnowledgeWisdom

SpaceCognitive

Physical

Information

Framework conditionsLegislation