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Foresight Exchange Workshop
“How to integrate agriculture and environmental
stakes in foresights?”
Beijing , 16th October 2011
With the support of the following institutions:
Presentation n°3 (A. Wongdeethai, STI)Thailand Agricultural Foresight 2020
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Thailand Agricultural Foresight 2020Thailand Agricultural Foresight 2020
Angkarn WongdeethaiNational Science Technology and Innovation Policy Office (STI)
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APEC Center for Technology Foresight
� Established in 1998 underAsia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC)
� Now part of STI, Thailand
Mission of APEC CTF
•RESEARCH: APEC-wide Foresight Studies
– 8 Projects finished since 1998, focusing on high impact area such as water, education, nanotechnology and energy, low-carbon society
– Methodologies include Delphi, Scenarios, and TRM
•CONSULTING: for Public and Private Sectors
•TRAINING: Seminars and Workshops (2-3 times a year)
●Conference on Foresight and Emerging Technologies
Towards “Best Practice” in Technology ForesightTowards “Best Practice” in Technology Foresight
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The generic foresight process
framework
inputs
analysis
interpretation
prospection
outputs
strategy
Foresight
Source: Voros (2003)
Strategic intelligence scanning, Delphi
Emerging issues/trends analysis
Systems thinking, Causal Layered Analysis
Scenarios, visioning, backcasts, roadmaps
Reports, presentations, workshops, multimedia
Strategy development & strategic planning: individual, workgroup, organisation, society,
etc.
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Objective
Exploring and envisioning possible futures of what could be
in the coming years, in order not only to survive but to thrive,
and sustain in those harsh environments.
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Commodity Value Chain
Market
DemandMarket
Demand
Supply
ResponseSupply
Response
Input
suppliesInput
suppliesProductionProduction HarvestingHarvesting
Post Harvest
HandlingPost Harvest
Handling
Fresh
MarketFresh
Market
Value
AddedValue
Added
ConsumersConsumers
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Outputs
� 2 Workshops (farm sectors: distributor/
wholesaler/ retailer > 100 participants)
� 1 Public hearing (consumer > 100 participants)
� Processes/ scenario planning : brainstorming,
focus group, card techniques (trends, driving
force (social, technology, economics,
environment, politics: STEEP); uncertainties
� Scenario logics (3 scenarios):
1) Wild trees
2) Planted trees
3) Fallen trees
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Jointly conducted by• Knowledge Network Institute of Thailand (KNIT)
• The Federation for the Promotion of Ministry of University Affairs
• National Science Technology and Innovation Policy Office (STI)
• APEC Center for Technology Foresight (APEC CTF)
• Faculty of Agriculture, Kasetsart University (KU)
• Thailand Environment Institute (TEI)
• Bank for Agriculture and Agricultural Co-Operatives (BAAC)
• National Research Council of Thailand (NRCT)
• Thailand Research Fund (TRF)
• Agricultural Research Development Agency (Public Organization) (ARDA)
• Thai Public Broadcasting Service (Thai PBS) (TV chanel)
• Thai Post Today (newspaper)
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InfoInfo
GG
Food prices
GDP Agri decline
Aging populationAgri. Pop decline
Climate change
Low productivity, Low value-addedEE
Debt, PovertyLand ownership
DD
II
Energy crisis
AEC 2015HH
Politics
Factors effecting Thailand agriculture
Water management
FF
CC
BB
AA
JJ
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1. Wild trees 2. Planted trees 3. Fallen trees
+ Climate Change
+ Politics
�Tech. Development
�Local knowledge
�Cluster/Networking
�SME growth
�Agri-Food Biz
+/- Climate Change
+ Politics
�Prachaniyom 2.0
�National Agri. Plan
�Social network
�Creative Agri-Industry
�Value added market
- Climate Change
- Politics
�Agri. Policy - no direction
�LE growth (w tech.)
�Land grabbing (nominee)
�Precision farming
�Low Agri. Pop.
�Low competitiveness
�Agri.-DARK AGE
Thailand Agricultural Foresight 2020: Scenario logics
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Outcomes - on process
� Foresight for Faculty of Agriculture, Kasetsart
University (KU)
� Thai Rice Strategy: Foresight (TRF, TDRI, STI)
� Agricultural Education System (KNIT)
� STI for Agriculture Foresight (STI)
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Ag
ricu
ltu
ral
Inn
ov
ati
on
Sy
ste
ms
Macroeconomic &
International Regulatory
Environment
Physical
Infrastructure
Farming & Soil
Conditions
Sector Performance Growth,
Jobs, Competitiveness
Product Market
Conditions
Education System
& Training
Agricultural Knowledge Generation,
Diffusion and Use
Firms and
Networks
Science
suppliers
Research &
standard
Setting
Bodies
Supporting
Institutions
FARMERS
Global Innovation networksGlobal Innovation networks
National Innovation SystemNational Innovation System
Industry
, oth
er
Industry
, oth
er
supply le
d sy
stem
s & va
lue chain
ssu
pply le
d sy
stem
s & va
lue chain
sRegio
nal in
novations sy
stem
sRegio
nal in
novations sy
stem
s
Agricultural
Innovation Capacity
Source: Adapted from OECD, Managing National Innovation Systems, 1999
Future »
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» Current situations : High impacts
Picture credit: Keradit, James, 14 Oct2011
Death 297 persons, loss 2 persons.
Impacted 61 provinces, 606 sub province.
Impacted 2,488,482 households 8,568,095
personsSource: Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation, 15 Oct 2011