forecasting - town of cary
DESCRIPTION
Presentation by Scott Fogleman, Town of Cary, on Financial Forecasting - Presented at 2012 Winter NCLGBA ConferenceTRANSCRIPT
TOWN Of CARY
Forecasting in Cary
LI
NA
,
1871
C
ON
RA
Y
ROT H C A R
TOWN Of CARY 2
1) Quick tour of Cary
2) Summary of our growth patterns
3) General Fund Forecast
4) Utility Fund Forecast
Forecasting in Cary
TOWN Of CARY
First Thought When You
Hear Town of Cary?
3
TOWN Of CARY 4
• Containment Area for
Relocated Yankees
• Known for beige colors and
lack of signs
• Fast Growing
• Town? That’s a City!
• We now have chickens!
Cary?
TOWN Of CARY
Cary, North Carolina
TOWN Of CARY
Our Town Morrisville
Raleigh
Apex
RDU
Holly
Springs
RTP
Wes
tern
Wake
Expre
ssw
ay
TOWN Of CARY
Cary
Town
Limits:
1900-
2010
1900
TOWN Of CARY
Cary
Town
Limits:
1900-
2010
1949
TOWN Of CARY
Cary
Town
Limits:
1900-
2010
1960
TOWN Of CARY
Cary
Town
Limits:
1900-
2010
1970
TOWN Of CARY
Cary
Town
Limits:
1900-
2010
1980
TOWN Of CARY
Cary
Town
Limits:
1900-
2010
1990
TOWN Of CARY
Cary
Town
Limits:
1900-
2010
1995
TOWN Of CARY
Cary
Town
Limits:
1900-
2010
2000
TOWN Of CARY
Cary
Town
Limits:
1900-
2010
2005
TOWN Of CARY
Cary
Town
Limits:
1900-
2010
10/15/2010
2010
TOWN Of CARY
Town of Cary Decennial Census
Year Population Increase % Increase
Average
Increase Per
Year
1940 1,141
1950 1,496 355 31% 3.1%
1960 3,356 1,860 124% 12.4%
1970 7,640 4,284 128% 12.8%
1980 21,763 14,123 185% 18.5%
1990 43,858 22,095 102% 10.2%
2000 94,536 50,678 116% 11.6%
2010 Est. 141,271 46,735 49% 4.9%
TOWN Of CARY _____________________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________TOWN Of CARY
TOWN Of CARY
Town of Cary Decennial Census Results
Year Population Increase % Increase
Average Increase
Per Year in The
Prior Decade
1940 1,141
1950 1,496 355 31% 3.1%
1960 3,356 1,860 124% 12.4%
1970 7,640 4,284 128% 12.8%
1980 21,763 14,123 185% 18.5%
1990 43,858 22,095 102% 10.2%
2000 94,536 50,678 116% 11.6%
2010 135,234 40,698 43% 4.3%
2012 142,257 2.6%
TOWN Of CARY
Town of Cary Decennial Census Results
Year Population Increase % Increase
Average Increase
Per Year in The
Prior Decade
1940 1,141
1950 1,496 355 31% 3.1%
1960 3,356 1,860 124% 12.4%
1970 7,640 4,284 128% 12.8%
1980 21,763 14,123 185% 18.5%
1990 43,858 22,095 102% 10.2%
2000 94,536 50,678 116% 11.6%
2010 135,234 40,698 43% 4.3%
2012 142,257 2.6%
TOWN Of CARY
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_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Adopted Capital Appropriation Summary
R:\addrv\BUDOFFCE\FY 2012 Budget\Worksession #1\Capital Docs\[Capital Summaries.xls]NEW Rev Est UTIL CAP Report
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Do
llars
in
Mil
lio
ns
Fiscal Year
General Capital Adopted CIB
Gen'l Gov't
Parks
Fire
Transportation
TOWN Of CARY
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Adopted Capital Appropriation Summary
R:\addrv\BUDOFFCE\FY 2012 Budget\Worksession #1\Capital Docs\[Capital Summaries.xls]NEW Rev Est UTIL CAP Report
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Do
llars
in
Mil
lio
ns
Fiscal Year
General Capital Adopted CIB
Gen'l Gov't
Parks
Fire
Transportation
FY1990 to FY1998
total of $54M or
avg. of $6M per
year
TOWN Of CARY
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Adopted Capital Appropriation Summary
R:\addrv\BUDOFFCE\FY 2012 Budget\Worksession #1\Capital Docs\[Capital Summaries.xls]NEW Rev Est UTIL CAP Report
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Do
llars
in
Mil
lio
ns
Fiscal Year
General Capital Adopted CIB
Gen'l Gov't
Parks
Fire
Transportation
FY1990 to FY1998
total of $54M or
avg. of $6M per
year
FY1999 to FY2009
total of $482M or
avg. of $44M per
year
TOWN Of CARY
General Capital Proportion of Debt Funding
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%1
99
8
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
Funding Portion Breakdown for
General Capital Adopted Budget
Cash Debt
R:\addrv\BUDOFFCE\FY 2012 Budget\Worksession #1\Capital Docs\[Capital Summaries.xls]NEW Rev Est UTIL CAP Report
TOWN Of CARY
General Capital Projects and Funding
Steps
1) Historical revenue and appropriation summary
2) Today’s capital planning approach
3) Time is right for another look to determine where we go next
4) Options for Council consideration
5) Feedback and direction from Council
Goal Statement
Update Council and receive direction regarding general capital
projects (transportation, fire, PRCR, general government,
downtown) and available funding options for FY2013 and
beyond including usage of the 2003 street and park bond
authority.
TOWN Of CARY
2003 Bond Referendum Summary
TOWN Of CARY
2003 Bond Referendum Summary April 8, 2003 April 8, 2013
FY 2003 FY 2004 FY 2005 FY 2006 FY 2007 FY 2008 FY 2009 FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013
Voter Approved Bonding Authority Good For Seven Years {3 Year Extension Approved}
TOWN Of CARY
2003 Bond Referendum Summary April 8, 2003 April 8, 2013
FY 2003 FY 2004 FY 2005 FY 2006 FY 2007 FY 2008 FY 2009 FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013
Voter Approved Bonding Authority Good For Seven Years {3 Year Extension Approved}
TOWN Of CARY
2003 Bond Referendum Summary April 8, 2003 April 8, 2013
FY 2003 FY 2004 FY 2005 FY 2006 FY 2007 FY 2008 FY 2009 FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013
Voter Approved Bonding Authority Good For Seven Years {3 Year Extension Approved}
$0
$10,000,000
$20,000,000
$30,000,000
$40,000,000
$50,000,000
$60,000,000
$70,000,000
$80,000,000
$90,000,000
$100,000,000
$110,000,000
$120,000,000
$130,000,000
FY
20
03
FY
20
04
FY
20
05
FY
20
06
FY
20
07
FY
20
08
FY
20
09
FY
20
10
FY
20
11
FY
20
12
FY
20
13
In W
ho
le D
olla
rs
Fiscal Year
Town of CaryTransportation 2003 GO $130M Referendum Status Summary
Total Appropriated = $76.9M
Remainder = $53.1M
TOWN Of CARY
2003 Bond Referendum Summary April 8, 2003 April 8, 2013
FY 2003 FY 2004 FY 2005 FY 2006 FY 2007 FY 2008 FY 2009 FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013
Voter Approved Bonding Authority Good For Seven Years {3 Year Extension Approved}
$0
$10,000,000
$20,000,000
$30,000,000
$40,000,000
$50,000,000
$60,000,000
$70,000,000
$80,000,000
$90,000,000
$100,000,000
$110,000,000
$120,000,000
$130,000,000
FY
20
03
FY
20
04
FY
20
05
FY
20
06
FY
20
07
FY
20
08
FY
20
09
FY
20
10
FY
20
11
FY
20
12
FY
20
13
In W
ho
le D
olla
rs
Fiscal Year
Town of CaryTransportation 2003 GO $130M Referendum Status Summary
Streetscapes = $34.3M of Total
Total Appropriated = $76.9M
Remainder = $53.1M
TOWN Of CARY
2003 Bond Referendum Summary April 8, 2003 April 8, 2013
FY 2003 FY 2004 FY 2005 FY 2006 FY 2007 FY 2008 FY 2009 FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013
Voter Approved Bonding Authority Good For Seven Years {3 Year Extension Approved}
$0
$5,000,000
$10,000,000
$15,000,000
$20,000,000
$25,000,000
$30,000,000F
Y 2
00
3
FY
20
04
FY
20
05
FY
20
06
FY
20
07
FY
20
08
FY
20
09
FY
20
10
FY
20
11
FY
20
12
FY
20
13
In W
ho
le D
olla
rs
Fiscal Year
Town of CaryPRCR 2003 GO $30M Referendum Status Summary
Total Appropriated = $22.4M
Remainder = $7.6M
TOWN Of CARY
2003 Bond Referendum Summary April 8, 2003 April 8, 2013
FY 2003 FY 2004 FY 2005 FY 2006 FY 2007 FY 2008 FY 2009 FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013
Voter Approved Bonding Authority Good For Seven Years {3 Year Extension Approved}
$0
$5,000,000
$10,000,000
$15,000,000
$20,000,000
$25,000,000
$30,000,000F
Y 2
00
3
FY
20
04
FY
20
05
FY
20
06
FY
20
07
FY
20
08
FY
20
09
FY
20
10
FY
20
11
FY
20
12
FY
20
13
In W
ho
le D
olla
rs
Fiscal Year
Town of CaryPRCR 2003 GO $30M Referendum Status Summary
Total Appropriated = $22.4M
Aquatics = $13.5M of Total
Remainder = $7.6M
TOWN Of CARY
How Much Might New Debt Service Cost ?
R:\addrv\BUDOFFCE\Retreat\2012\[MMD History.xls]10-Year MMD
TOWN Of CARY
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
How Much Might New Debt Service Cost ?
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
10-Year Municipal Market Data (MMD) Benchmark Tax-Exempt Interest Rate Since January 1991
R:\addrv\BUDOFFCE\Retreat\2012\[MMD History.xls]10-Year MMD
TOWN Of CARY
Debt Service Payment Sensitivity on $20M of Debt At Various Interest Rates
R:\addrv\BUDOFFCE\FY 2013 Budget\A-Models\[1-2-12 Model Updated w ith FY2011 Actuals, Budget FY12.xls]Debt Paydown Sensitivity
TOWN Of CARY
Debt Service Payment Sensitivity on $20M of Debt At Various Interest Rates
R:\addrv\BUDOFFCE\FY 2013 Budget\A-Models\[1-2-12 Model Updated w ith FY2011 Actuals, Budget FY12.xls]Debt Paydown Sensitivity
1.6
$0.0
$0.5
$1.0
$1.5
$2.0
$2.5
20
13
20
15
20
17
20
19
20
21
20
23
20
25
20
27
20
29
20
31
An
nu
al D
eb
t S
erv
ice
Pa
ym
en
t $
M
(In
clu
de
s P
rin
cip
al a
nd
Inte
res
t)
Debt Repayment Scenarios Based on $20M of Borrowing
at Various Interest Rates
3% Total = $26.3M
TOWN Of CARY
Debt Service Payment Sensitivity on $20M of Debt At Various Interest Rates
R:\addrv\BUDOFFCE\FY 2013 Budget\A-Models\[1-2-12 Model Updated w ith FY2011 Actuals, Budget FY12.xls]Debt Paydown Sensitivity
1.6
1.4
$0.0
$0.5
$1.0
$1.5
$2.0
$2.5
20
13
20
15
20
17
20
19
20
21
20
23
20
25
20
27
20
29
20
31
An
nu
al D
eb
t S
erv
ice
Pa
ym
en
t $
M
(In
clu
de
s P
rin
cip
al a
nd
Inte
res
t)
Debt Repayment Scenarios Based on $20M of Borrowing
at Various Interest Rates
3% Total = $26.3M
2% Total = $24.2M
TOWN Of CARY
Debt Service Payment Sensitivity on $20M of Debt At Various Interest Rates
R:\addrv\BUDOFFCE\FY 2013 Budget\A-Models\[1-2-12 Model Updated w ith FY2011 Actuals, Budget FY12.xls]Debt Paydown Sensitivity
1.6
1.4
1.2
$0.0
$0.5
$1.0
$1.5
$2.0
$2.5
20
13
20
15
20
17
20
19
20
21
20
23
20
25
20
27
20
29
20
31
An
nu
al D
eb
t S
erv
ice
Pa
ym
en
t $
M
(In
clu
de
s P
rin
cip
al a
nd
Inte
res
t)
Debt Repayment Scenarios Based on $20M of Borrowing
at Various Interest Rates
3% Total = $26.3M
2% Total = $24.2M
1% Total = $22.1M
TOWN Of CARY
Debt Service Payment Sensitivity on $20M of Debt At Various Interest Rates
R:\addrv\BUDOFFCE\FY 2013 Budget\A-Models\[1-2-12 Model Updated w ith FY2011 Actuals, Budget FY12.xls]Debt Paydown Sensitivity
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
$0.0
$0.5
$1.0
$1.5
$2.0
$2.5
20
13
20
15
20
17
20
19
20
21
20
23
20
25
20
27
20
29
20
31
An
nu
al D
eb
t S
erv
ice
Pa
ym
en
t $
M
(In
clu
de
s P
rin
cip
al a
nd
Inte
res
t)
Debt Repayment Scenarios Based on $20M of Borrowing
at Various Interest Rates
4% Total = $28.4M
3% Total = $26.3M
2% Total = $24.2M
1% Total = $22.1M
TOWN Of CARY
Debt Service Payment Sensitivity on $20M of Debt At Various Interest Rates
R:\addrv\BUDOFFCE\FY 2013 Budget\A-Models\[1-2-12 Model Updated w ith FY2011 Actuals, Budget FY12.xls]Debt Paydown Sensitivity
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
$0.0
$0.5
$1.0
$1.5
$2.0
$2.5
20
13
20
15
20
17
20
19
20
21
20
23
20
25
20
27
20
29
20
31
An
nu
al D
eb
t S
erv
ice
Pa
ym
en
t $
M
(In
clu
de
s P
rin
cip
al a
nd
Inte
res
t)
Debt Repayment Scenarios Based on $20M of Borrowing
at Various Interest Rates
5% Total = $30.5M
4% Total = $28.4M
3% Total = $26.3M
2% Total = $24.2M
1% Total = $22.1M
TOWN Of CARY
Debt Service Payment Sensitivity on $20M of Debt At Various Interest Rates
R:\addrv\BUDOFFCE\FY 2013 Budget\A-Models\[1-2-12 Model Updated w ith FY2011 Actuals, Budget FY12.xls]Debt Paydown Sensitivity
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
$0.0
$0.5
$1.0
$1.5
$2.0
$2.5
20
13
20
15
20
17
20
19
20
21
20
23
20
25
20
27
20
29
20
31
An
nu
al D
eb
t S
erv
ice
Pa
ym
en
t $
M
(In
clu
de
s P
rin
cip
al a
nd
Inte
res
t)
Debt Repayment Scenarios Based on $20M of Borrowing
at Various Interest Rates
5% Total = $30.5M
4% Total = $28.4M
3% Total = $26.3M
2% Total = $24.2M
1% Total = $22.1M
Effectively, for each 1% increment in the interest
rate, the first year of debt service is $100K more
expensive for each $10M borrowed, so for the $20M
($10M x 2) in this example, the difference between
each increment is $200K ($100K x 2). If $100M
($10M x 10) were borrowed, the increment in the 1st
year of debt service would be $1M ($100K x 10).
TOWN Of CARY
General Fund Forecast Key Variables
• Tax Base
• Sales tax
• Investment Earnings
• Other revenues
• Baseline expenditure growth rate
• Operating Impacts of Capital
• Debt service % (ceiling of 15%)
• Maintain Fund balance (6 months)
• Operating margin in cents on tax rate
TOWN Of CARY
Various Debt Capacity Scenarios
R:\addrv\BUDOFFCE\FY 2013 Budget\A-Models\[1-2-12 Model Updated with FY2011 Actuals, Budget FY12.xls]Graphs
TOWN Of CARY
Various Debt Capacity Scenarios
R:\addrv\BUDOFFCE\FY 2013 Budget\A-Models\[1-2-12 Model Updated with FY2011 Actuals, Budget FY12.xls]Graphs
0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%
10%11%12%13%14%15%16%17%18%19%20%21%
FY
20
00
FY
20
02
FY
20
04
FY
20
06
FY
20
08
FY
20
10
FY
20
12
FY
20
14
FY
20
16
FY
20
18
FY
20
20
An
nu
al D
eb
t S
erv
ice
Pe
rce
nta
ge
Historical and Forecasted Annual General Fund Debt
Service % Scenarios
Already Issued As of FY12
TOWN Of CARY
Various Debt Capacity Scenarios
R:\addrv\BUDOFFCE\FY 2013 Budget\A-Models\[1-2-12 Model Updated with FY2011 Actuals, Budget FY12.xls]Graphs
0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%
10%11%12%13%14%15%16%17%18%19%20%21%
FY
20
00
FY
20
02
FY
20
04
FY
20
06
FY
20
08
FY
20
10
FY
20
12
FY
20
14
FY
20
16
FY
20
18
FY
20
20
An
nu
al D
eb
t S
erv
ice
Pe
rce
nta
ge
Historical and Forecasted Annual General Fund Debt
Service % Scenarios
Already Issued As of FY12
+ DS to Hold at 12%
Already Issued As of FY12
TOWN Of CARY
Various Debt Capacity Scenarios
R:\addrv\BUDOFFCE\FY 2013 Budget\A-Models\[1-2-12 Model Updated with FY2011 Actuals, Budget FY12.xls]Graphs
0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%
10%11%12%13%14%15%16%17%18%19%20%21%
FY
20
00
FY
20
02
FY
20
04
FY
20
06
FY
20
08
FY
20
10
FY
20
12
FY
20
14
FY
20
16
FY
20
18
FY
20
20
An
nu
al D
eb
t S
erv
ice
Pe
rce
nta
ge
Historical and Forecasted Annual General Fund Debt
Service % Scenarios
Already Issued As of FY12
+ DS to 15% Gradually
Already Issued As of FY12
+ DS to Hold at 12%
Already Issued As of FY12
TOWN Of CARY
Various Debt Capacity Scenarios
R:\addrv\BUDOFFCE\FY 2013 Budget\A-Models\[1-2-12 Model Updated with FY2011 Actuals, Budget FY12.xls]Graphs
0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%
10%11%12%13%14%15%16%17%18%19%20%21%
FY
20
00
FY
20
02
FY
20
04
FY
20
06
FY
20
08
FY
20
10
FY
20
12
FY
20
14
FY
20
16
FY
20
18
FY
20
20
An
nu
al D
eb
t S
erv
ice
Pe
rce
nta
ge
Historical and Forecasted Annual General Fund Debt
Service % Scenarios
Already Issued As of FY12
+ DS to 15% Right Away
Already Issued As of FY12
+ DS to 15% Gradually
Already Issued As of FY12
+ DS to Hold at 12%
Already Issued As of FY12
TOWN Of CARY
Various Debt Capacity Scenarios
0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%
10%11%12%13%14%15%16%17%18%19%20%21%
FY
20
00
FY
20
02
FY
20
04
FY
20
06
FY
20
08
FY
20
10
FY
20
12
FY
20
14
FY
20
16
FY
20
18
FY
20
20
An
nu
al D
eb
t S
erv
ice
Pe
rce
nta
ge
Historical and Forecasted Annual General Fund Debt
Service % Scenarios
Already Issued As of FY12
+ DS to 20% Gradually
Already Issued As of FY12
+ DS to 15% Right Away
Already Issued As of FY12
+ DS to 15% Gradually
Already Issued As of FY12
+ DS to Hold at 12%
Already Issued As of FY12
R:\addrv\BUDOFFCE\FY 2013 Budget\A-Models\[1-2-12 Model Updated with FY2011 Actuals, Budget FY12.xls]Graphs
TOWN Of CARY
Various Debt Capacity Scenarios
R:\addrv\BUDOFFCE\FY 2013 Budget\A-Models\[1-2-12 Model Updated w ith FY2011 Actuals, Budget FY12.xls]Debt Paydown Sensitivity
61
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
FY
20
13
FY
20
14
FY
20
15
FY
20
16
FY
20
17
FY
20
18
FY
20
19
FY
20
20
De
bt B
ala
nc
e in
Millio
ns
General Capital Debt Balance Scenarios
Existing Debt
Balance
TOWN Of CARY
Various Debt Capacity Scenarios
R:\addrv\BUDOFFCE\FY 2013 Budget\A-Models\[1-2-12 Model Updated w ith FY2011 Actuals, Budget FY12.xls]Debt Paydown Sensitivity
89
61
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
FY
20
13
FY
20
14
FY
20
15
FY
20
16
FY
20
17
FY
20
18
FY
20
19
FY
20
20
De
bt B
ala
nc
e in
Millio
ns
General Capital Debt Balance Scenarios
New Capacity if DS
to Hold at 12%
Existing Debt
Balance
TOWN Of CARY
Various Debt Capacity Scenarios
R:\addrv\BUDOFFCE\FY 2013 Budget\A-Models\[1-2-12 Model Updated w ith FY2011 Actuals, Budget FY12.xls]Debt Paydown Sensitivity
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General Capital Debt Balance Scenarios
New Capacity if DS
to 15% Gradually
New Capacity if DS
to Hold at 12%
Existing Debt
Balance
TOWN Of CARY
Various Debt Capacity Scenarios
R:\addrv\BUDOFFCE\FY 2013 Budget\A-Models\[1-2-12 Model Updated w ith FY2011 Actuals, Budget FY12.xls]Debt Paydown Sensitivity
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200
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bt B
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nc
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General Capital Debt Balance Scenarios
New Capacity If DS
to 15% Right Away
New Capacity if DS
to 15% Gradually
New Capacity if DS
to Hold at 12%
Existing Debt
Balance
TOWN Of CARY
Various Debt Capacity Scenarios
R:\addrv\BUDOFFCE\FY 2013 Budget\A-Models\[1-2-12 Model Updated w ith FY2011 Actuals, Budget FY12.xls]Debt Paydown Sensitivity
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100
150
200
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De
bt B
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nc
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General Capital Debt Balance Scenarios
New Capacity if DS
to 20% Gradually
New Capacity If DS
to 15% Right Away
New Capacity if DS
to 15% Gradually
New Capacity if DS
to Hold at 12%
Existing Debt
Balance
TOWN Of CARY
Value of One Cent on the Tax Rate Used to
Define Operating Margin
R:\addrv\BUDOFFCE\FY 2013 Budget\A-Models\[1-2-12 Model Updated with FY2011 Actuals, Budget FY12.xls]General Fund Summary
$0.0
$0.5
$1.0
$1.5
$2.0
$2.5
$3.0
FY
2000
FY
20
01
FY
20
02
FY
20
03
FY
20
04
FY
20
05
FY
20
06
FY
20
07
FY
20
08
FY
2009
FY
20
10
FY
20
11
FY
20
12
FY
20
13
FY
20
14
FY
20
15
FY
20
16
FY
2017
FY
20
18
FY
20
19
FY
20
20
An
nu
al R
ev
en
ue
of 1
Ce
nt o
n th
e
Tax R
ate
($ M
illi
on
s)
Actual Value Through FY2012Projections Through 2020
TOWN Of CARY
Various Debt Capacity Scenarios
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
FY
20
11
FY
20
12
FY
20
13
FY
20
14
FY
20
15
FY
20
16
FY
20
17
FY
20
18
FY
20
19
FY
20
20
Ta
x E
qu
iva
len
t o
f A
dd
itio
na
l Ma
rgin
Ne
ed
ed
Forecasted General Fund Operating Margin Scenarios Expressed in
Additional Cents on the Tax Rate of 33 Cents
Baseline Forecast Including No
New Debt @ 6.4 cents by 2020
TOWN Of CARY
Various Debt Capacity Scenarios
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
FY
20
11
FY
20
12
FY
20
13
FY
20
14
FY
20
15
FY
20
16
FY
20
17
FY
20
18
FY
20
19
FY
20
20
Ta
x E
qu
iva
len
t o
f A
dd
itio
na
l Ma
rgin
Ne
ed
ed
Forecasted General Fund Operating Margin Scenarios Expressed in
Additional Cents on the Tax Rate of 33 Cents
To CoverAlready Issued As of
FY12 + DS to Hold at 12% @ 3.7 more cents by 2020
Baseline Forecast Including No
New Debt @ 6.4 cents by 2020
TOWN Of CARY
Various Debt Capacity Scenarios
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
FY
20
11
FY
20
12
FY
20
13
FY
20
14
FY
20
15
FY
20
16
FY
20
17
FY
20
18
FY
20
19
FY
20
20
Ta
x E
qu
iva
len
t o
f A
dd
itio
na
l Ma
rgin
Ne
ed
ed
Forecasted General Fund Operating Margin Scenarios Expressed in
Additional Cents on the Tax Rate of 33 Cents
To CoverAlready Issued As of
FY12 + DS to 15% Gradually @ 6.2 more cents by 2020
To CoverAlready Issued As of
FY12 + DS to Hold at 12% @ 3.7 more cents by 2020
Baseline Forecast Including No
New Debt @ 6.4 cents by 2020
TOWN Of CARY
Various Debt Capacity Scenarios
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
FY
20
11
FY
20
12
FY
20
13
FY
20
14
FY
20
15
FY
20
16
FY
20
17
FY
20
18
FY
20
19
FY
20
20
Ta
x E
qu
iva
len
t o
f A
dd
itio
na
l Ma
rgin
Ne
ed
ed
Forecasted General Fund Operating Margin Scenarios Expressed in
Additional Cents on the Tax Rate of 33 Cents
To CoverAlready Issued As of
FY12 + DS to 15% Right Away @ 7 cents more by 2020
To CoverAlready Issued As of
FY12 + DS to 15% Gradually @ 6.2 more cents by 2020
To CoverAlready Issued As of
FY12 + DS to Hold at 12% @ 3.7 more cents by 2020
Baseline Forecast Including No
New Debt @ 6.4 cents by 2020
TOWN Of CARY
Various Debt Capacity Scenarios
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
FY
20
11
FY
20
12
FY
20
13
FY
20
14
FY
20
15
FY
20
16
FY
20
17
FY
20
18
FY
20
19
FY
20
20
Ta
x E
qu
iva
len
t o
f A
dd
itio
na
l Ma
rgin
Ne
ed
ed
Forecasted General Fund Operating Margin Scenarios Expressed in
Additional Cents on the Tax Rate of 33 Cents
To CoverAlready Issued As of
FY12 + DS to 20% Gradually @ 10.8 more cents by 2020
To CoverAlready Issued As of
FY12 + DS to 15% Right Away @ 7 cents more by 2020
To CoverAlready Issued As of
FY12 + DS to 15% Gradually @ 6.2 more cents by 2020
To CoverAlready Issued As of
FY12 + DS to Hold at 12% @ 3.7 more cents by 2020
Baseline Forecast Including No
New Debt @ 6.4 cents by 2020
TOWN Of CARY
2012 Bond Referendum
Total $80M
TOWN Of CARY
2012 Bond Referendum
Total $80M
TOWN Of CARY
2012 Bond Referendum
Total $80M
TOWN Of CARY
2012 Bond Referendum
Total $80M
TOWN Of CARY
2012 Bond Referendum
Total $80M
Fire $6.4M PRCR $15.9M Trans $57.7M
TOWN Of CARY
2012 Bond Referendum
Total $80M
2 Cents Tax Increase in FY2014
Fire $6.4M PRCR $15.9M Trans $57.7M
TOWN Of CARY
2012 Bond Referendum
Total $80M
2 Cents Tax Increase in FY2014
2 Cents More in FY2016
Fire $6.4M PRCR $15.9M Trans $57.7M
TOWN Of CARY
2012 Bond Referendum
Total $80M
All three approved by voters
November 6, 2012
Fire $6.4M PRCR $15.9M Trans $57.7M
TOWN Of CARY
2012 Bond Referendum
Total $80M
All three approved by voters
November 6, 2012
Vote 80/20
Fire $6.4M PRCR $15.9M Trans $57.7M
TOWN Of CARY
2012 Bond Referendum
Total $80M
All three approved by voters
November 6, 2012
Vote 80/20
Fire $6.4M PRCR $15.9M Trans $57.7M Vote 69/31
TOWN Of CARY
2012 Bond Referendum
Total $80M
All three approved by voters
November 6, 2012
Vote 80/20 Vote 69/31 Vote 70/30
Fire $6.4M PRCR $15.9M Trans $57.7M
TOWN Of CARY
Model
Summary
FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018
Row # Row Description Previews Projection Projection Projection Projection Projection
1 Base Tax Rate 33 35 35 37 37 37
2 Revenues 122.3 129.2 132.3 140.4 144.6 148.9
3 - Operating Costs (108.2) (113.6) (118.7) (123.9) (129.3) (134.9)
4 - Debt Service (13.3) (13.4) (12.9) (12.7) (12.3) (12.1)
5 - Debt Service Adjustments (4.0) (3.9) (7.8) (7.6) (7.4)
6 = Operating Margin After Debt Service 0.8 (1.8) (3.2) (4.1) (4.7) (5.5)
7 + Margin to Cover Expenses & Debt Service - 1.8 3.2 4.1 4.7 5.5
8 + Margin to Maintain Fund Balance Reserve - 4.2 2.3 3.8 2.4 2.5
9 - Transfer (out to) capital & other (5.0) - - - - -
10 = Change in fund balance (4.2) 4.2 2.3 3.8 2.5 2.6
11 + Beginning Fund Balance 74.3 70.1 74.3 76.7 80.5 83.0
12 = Ending Fund Balance 70.1 74.3 76.7 80.5 83.0 85.6
13 - Fund Balance Reserved (17.1) (18.2) (19.0) (19.8) (20.7) (21.6)
14 - 4 Months of Unreserved as Floor (40.5) (43.7) (45.2) (48.2) (49.7) (51.5)
15 = Fund Balance Available for Capital 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5
16 Number of Months of Annual Expenditures and
Debt Service in UNRESERVED Fund Balance 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0
17 Debt Service As A % of Operating Expenses and
Debt Service (Scenario: Recommended Budget) 10.9% 13.3% 12.4% 14.2% 13.3% 12.6%
18 Tax base growth rate 1.8% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.0%
19 Value of one cent on the tax rate 2.11 2.14 2.19 2.24 2.31 2.38
20 Operating Margin as % of Revenues 1% -1% -2% -3% -3% -4%
21 Value of one month of annual operating
expenditures and debt service 10.1 10.9 11.3 12.0 12.4 12.9
TOWN Of CARY
FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018
Row # Row Description Previews Projection Projection Projection Projection Projection
1 Base Tax Rate 33 35 35 37 37 37
2 Revenues 122.3 129.2 132.3 140.4 144.6 148.9
3 - Operating Costs (108.2) (113.6) (118.7) (123.9) (129.3) (134.9)
4 - Debt Service (13.3) (13.4) (12.9) (12.7) (12.3) (12.1)
5 - Debt Service Adjustments (4.0) (3.9) (7.8) (7.6) (7.4)
6 = Operating Margin After Debt Service 0.8 (1.8) (3.2) (4.1) (4.7) (5.5)
7 + Margin to Cover Expenses & Debt Service - 1.8 3.2 4.1 4.7 5.5
8 + Margin to Maintain Fund Balance Reserve - 4.2 2.3 3.8 2.4 2.5
9 - Transfer (out to) capital & other (5.0) - - - - -
10 = Change in fund balance (4.2) 4.2 2.3 3.8 2.5 2.6
11 + Beginning Fund Balance 74.3 70.1 74.3 76.7 80.5 83.0
12 = Ending Fund Balance 70.1 74.3 76.7 80.5 83.0 85.6
13 - Fund Balance Reserved (17.1) (18.2) (19.0) (19.8) (20.7) (21.6)
14 - 4 Months of Unreserved as Floor (40.5) (43.7) (45.2) (48.2) (49.7) (51.5)
15 = Fund Balance Available for Capital 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5
16 Number of Months of Annual Expenditures and
Debt Service in UNRESERVED Fund Balance 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0
17 Debt Service As A % of Operating Expenses and
Debt Service (Scenario: Recommended Budget) 10.9% 13.3% 12.4% 14.2% 13.3% 12.6%
18 Tax base growth rate 1.8% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.0%
19 Value of one cent on the tax rate 2.11 2.14 2.19 2.24 2.31 2.38
20 Operating Margin as % of Revenues 1% -1% -2% -3% -3% -4%
21 Value of one month of annual operating
expenditures and debt service 10.1 10.9 11.3 12.0 12.4 12.9
TOWN Of CARY
FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018
Row # Row Description Previews Projection Projection Projection Projection Projection
1 Base Tax Rate 33 35 35 37 37 37
2 Revenues 122.3 129.2 132.3 140.4 144.6 148.9
3 - Operating Costs (108.2) (113.6) (118.7) (123.9) (129.3) (134.9)
4 - Debt Service (13.3) (13.4) (12.9) (12.7) (12.3) (12.1)
5 - Debt Service Adjustments (4.0) (3.9) (7.8) (7.6) (7.4)
6 = Operating Margin After Debt Service 0.8 (1.8) (3.2) (4.1) (4.7) (5.5)
7 + Margin to Cover Expenses & Debt Service - 1.8 3.2 4.1 4.7 5.5
8 + Margin to Maintain Fund Balance Reserve - 4.2 2.3 3.8 2.4 2.5
9 - Transfer (out to) capital & other (5.0) - - - - -
10 = Change in fund balance (4.2) 4.2 2.3 3.8 2.5 2.6
11 + Beginning Fund Balance 74.3 70.1 74.3 76.7 80.5 83.0
12 = Ending Fund Balance 70.1 74.3 76.7 80.5 83.0 85.6
13 - Fund Balance Reserved (17.1) (18.2) (19.0) (19.8) (20.7) (21.6)
14 - 4 Months of Unreserved as Floor (40.5) (43.7) (45.2) (48.2) (49.7) (51.5)
15 = Fund Balance Available for Capital 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5
16 Number of Months of Annual Expenditures and
Debt Service in UNRESERVED Fund Balance 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0
17 Debt Service As A % of Operating Expenses and
Debt Service (Scenario: Recommended Budget) 10.9% 13.3% 12.4% 14.2% 13.3% 12.6%
18 Tax base growth rate 1.8% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.0%
19 Value of one cent on the tax rate 2.11 2.14 2.19 2.24 2.31 2.38
20 Operating Margin as % of Revenues 1% -1% -2% -3% -3% -4%
21 Value of one month of annual operating
expenditures and debt service 10.1 10.9 11.3 12.0 12.4 12.9
FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018
Row # Row Description Previews Projection Projection Projection Projection Projection
1 Base Tax Rate 33 35 35 37 37 37
2 Revenues 122.3 129.2 132.3 140.4 144.6 148.9
3 - Operating Costs (108.2) (113.6) (118.7) (123.9) (129.3) (134.9)
4 - Debt Service (13.3) (13.4) (12.9) (12.7) (12.3) (12.1)
5 - Debt Service Adjustments (4.0) (3.9) (7.8) (7.6) (7.4)
6 = Operating Margin After Debt Service 0.8 (1.8) (3.2) (4.1) (4.7) (5.5)
7 + Margin to Cover Expenses & Debt Service - 1.8 3.2 4.1 4.7 5.5
8 + Margin to Maintain Fund Balance Reserve - 4.2 2.3 3.8 2.4 2.5
9 - Transfer (out to) capital & other (5.0) - - - - -
10 = Change in fund balance (4.2) 4.2 2.3 3.8 2.5 2.6
11 + Beginning Fund Balance 74.3 70.1 74.3 76.7 80.5 83.0
12 = Ending Fund Balance 70.1 74.3 76.7 80.5 83.0 85.6
13 - Fund Balance Reserved (17.1) (18.2) (19.0) (19.8) (20.7) (21.6)
14 - 4 Months of Unreserved as Floor (40.5) (43.7) (45.2) (48.2) (49.7) (51.5)
15 = Fund Balance Available for Capital 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5
16 Number of Months of Annual Expenditures and
Debt Service in UNRESERVED Fund Balance 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0
17 Debt Service As A % of Operating Expenses and
Debt Service (Scenario: Recommended Budget) 10.9% 13.3% 12.4% 14.2% 13.3% 12.6%
18 Tax base growth rate 1.8% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.0%
19 Value of one cent on the tax rate 2.11 2.14 2.19 2.24 2.31 2.38
20 Operating Margin as % of Revenues 1% -1% -2% -3% -3% -4%
21 Value of one month of annual operating
expenditures and debt service 10.1 10.9 11.3 12.0 12.4 12.9
TOWN Of CARY
Assessing Model Changes
• Projections for FY2013?
• Back to the Future of FY2006
• How well did we do?
TOWN Of CARY
110.9 115.8
125.6 137.4
118.8 124.0 122.6 122.3
-
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
7 YrsAgo-06
6 YrsAgo-07
5 YrsAgo-08
4 YrsAgo-09
3 YrsAgo-10
2 YrsAgo-11
1 YrAgo-12
ThisYear-13
Revenues Projected for FY2013
107.0 118.9 114.2
124.3 111.9 110.1 107.6 108.2
-
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
7 YrsAgo-06
6 YrsAgo-07
5 YrsAgo-08
4 YrsAgo-09
3 YrsAgo-10
2 YrsAgo-11
1 YrAgo-12
ThisYear-13
Operating Expenses Projected for FY2013
12.7 13.9
21.9 21.8 21.8
14.3 13.4 13.3
-
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
7 YrsAgo-06
6 YrsAgo-07
5 YrsAgo-08
4 YrsAgo-09
3 YrsAgo-10
2 YrsAgo-11
1 YrAgo-12
ThisYear-13
Debt Service Projected for FY2013
(8.8)
(16.9)
(10.4)
(8.8)
(14.9)
(0.3)
1.6 0.8
(20.0)
(15.0)
(10.0)
(5.0)
-
5.0
7 YrsAgo-06
6 YrsAgo-07
5 YrsAgo-08
4 YrsAgo-09
3 YrsAgo-10
2 YrsAgo-11
1 YrAgo-12
ThisYear-13
Operating Margin Projected for FY2013
TOWN Of CARY
110.9 115.8
125.6 137.4
118.8 124.0 122.6 122.3
-
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
7 YrsAgo-06
6 YrsAgo-07
5 YrsAgo-08
4 YrsAgo-09
3 YrsAgo-10
2 YrsAgo-11
1 YrAgo-12
ThisYear-13
Revenues Projected for FY2013
107.0 118.9 114.2
124.3 111.9 110.1 107.6 108.2
-
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
7 YrsAgo-06
6 YrsAgo-07
5 YrsAgo-08
4 YrsAgo-09
3 YrsAgo-10
2 YrsAgo-11
1 YrAgo-12
ThisYear-13
Operating Expenses Projected for FY2013
12.7 13.9
21.9 21.8 21.8
14.3 13.4 13.3
-
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
7 YrsAgo-06
6 YrsAgo-07
5 YrsAgo-08
4 YrsAgo-09
3 YrsAgo-10
2 YrsAgo-11
1 YrAgo-12
ThisYear-13
Debt Service Projected for FY2013
(8.8)
(16.9)
(10.4)
(8.8)
(14.9)
(0.3)
1.6 0.8
(20.0)
(15.0)
(10.0)
(5.0)
-
5.0
7 YrsAgo-06
6 YrsAgo-07
5 YrsAgo-08
4 YrsAgo-09
3 YrsAgo-10
2 YrsAgo-11
1 YrAgo-12
ThisYear-13
Operating Margin Projected for FY2013
TOWN Of CARY
110.9 115.8
125.6 137.4
118.8 124.0 122.6 122.3
-
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
7 YrsAgo-06
6 YrsAgo-07
5 YrsAgo-08
4 YrsAgo-09
3 YrsAgo-10
2 YrsAgo-11
1 YrAgo-12
ThisYear-13
Revenues Projected for FY2013
107.0 118.9 114.2
124.3 111.9 110.1 107.6 108.2
-
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
7 YrsAgo-06
6 YrsAgo-07
5 YrsAgo-08
4 YrsAgo-09
3 YrsAgo-10
2 YrsAgo-11
1 YrAgo-12
ThisYear-13
Operating Expenses Projected for FY2013
12.7 13.9
21.9 21.8 21.8
14.3 13.4 13.3
-
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
7 YrsAgo-06
6 YrsAgo-07
5 YrsAgo-08
4 YrsAgo-09
3 YrsAgo-10
2 YrsAgo-11
1 YrAgo-12
ThisYear-13
Debt Service Projected for FY2013
(8.8)
(16.9)
(10.4)
(8.8)
(14.9)
(0.3)
1.6 0.8
(20.0)
(15.0)
(10.0)
(5.0)
-
5.0
7 YrsAgo-06
6 YrsAgo-07
5 YrsAgo-08
4 YrsAgo-09
3 YrsAgo-10
2 YrsAgo-11
1 YrAgo-12
ThisYear-13
Operating Margin Projected for FY2013
TOWN Of CARY
110.9 115.8
125.6 137.4
118.8 124.0 122.6 122.3
-
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
7 YrsAgo-06
6 YrsAgo-07
5 YrsAgo-08
4 YrsAgo-09
3 YrsAgo-10
2 YrsAgo-11
1 YrAgo-12
ThisYear-13
Revenues Projected for FY2013
107.0 118.9 114.2
124.3 111.9 110.1 107.6 108.2
-
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
7 YrsAgo-06
6 YrsAgo-07
5 YrsAgo-08
4 YrsAgo-09
3 YrsAgo-10
2 YrsAgo-11
1 YrAgo-12
ThisYear-13
Operating Expenses Projected for FY2013
12.7 13.9
21.9 21.8 21.8
14.3 13.4 13.3
-
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
7 YrsAgo-06
6 YrsAgo-07
5 YrsAgo-08
4 YrsAgo-09
3 YrsAgo-10
2 YrsAgo-11
1 YrAgo-12
ThisYear-13
Debt Service Projected for FY2013
(8.8)
(16.9)
(10.4)
(8.8)
(14.9)
(0.3)
1.6 0.8
(20.0)
(15.0)
(10.0)
(5.0)
-
5.0
7 YrsAgo-06
6 YrsAgo-07
5 YrsAgo-08
4 YrsAgo-09
3 YrsAgo-10
2 YrsAgo-11
1 YrAgo-12
ThisYear-13
Operating Margin Projected for FY2013
TOWN Of CARY
110.9 115.8
125.6 137.4
118.8 124.0 122.6 122.3
-
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
7 YrsAgo-06
6 YrsAgo-07
5 YrsAgo-08
4 YrsAgo-09
3 YrsAgo-10
2 YrsAgo-11
1 YrAgo-12
ThisYear-13
Revenues Projected for FY2013
107.0 118.9 114.2
124.3 111.9 110.1 107.6 108.2
-
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
7 YrsAgo-06
6 YrsAgo-07
5 YrsAgo-08
4 YrsAgo-09
3 YrsAgo-10
2 YrsAgo-11
1 YrAgo-12
ThisYear-13
Operating Expenses Projected for FY2013
12.7 13.9
21.9 21.8 21.8
14.3 13.4 13.3
-
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
7 YrsAgo-06
6 YrsAgo-07
5 YrsAgo-08
4 YrsAgo-09
3 YrsAgo-10
2 YrsAgo-11
1 YrAgo-12
ThisYear-13
Debt Service Projected for FY2013
(8.8)
(16.9)
(10.4)
(8.8)
(14.9)
(0.3)
1.6 0.8
(20.0)
(15.0)
(10.0)
(5.0)
-
5.0
7 YrsAgo-06
6 YrsAgo-07
5 YrsAgo-08
4 YrsAgo-09
3 YrsAgo-10
2 YrsAgo-11
1 YrAgo-12
ThisYear-13
Operating Margin Projected for FY2013
TOWN Of CARY
110.9 115.8
125.6 137.4
118.8 124.0 122.6 122.3
-
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
7 YrsAgo-06
6 YrsAgo-07
5 YrsAgo-08
4 YrsAgo-09
3 YrsAgo-10
2 YrsAgo-11
1 YrAgo-12
ThisYear-13
Revenues Projected for FY2013
107.0 118.9 114.2
124.3 111.9 110.1 107.6 108.2
-
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
7 YrsAgo-06
6 YrsAgo-07
5 YrsAgo-08
4 YrsAgo-09
3 YrsAgo-10
2 YrsAgo-11
1 YrAgo-12
ThisYear-13
Operating Expenses Projected for FY2013
12.7 13.9
21.9 21.8 21.8
14.3 13.4 13.3
-
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
7 YrsAgo-06
6 YrsAgo-07
5 YrsAgo-08
4 YrsAgo-09
3 YrsAgo-10
2 YrsAgo-11
1 YrAgo-12
ThisYear-13
Debt Service Projected for FY2013
(8.8)
(16.9)
(10.4)
(8.8)
(14.9)
(0.3)
1.6 0.8
(20.0)
(15.0)
(10.0)
(5.0)
-
5.0
7 YrsAgo-06
6 YrsAgo-07
5 YrsAgo-08
4 YrsAgo-09
3 YrsAgo-10
2 YrsAgo-11
1 YrAgo-12
ThisYear-13
Operating Margin Projected for FY2013
TOWN Of CARY
110.9 115.8
125.6 137.4
118.8 124.0 122.6 122.3
-
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
7 YrsAgo-06
6 YrsAgo-07
5 YrsAgo-08
4 YrsAgo-09
3 YrsAgo-10
2 YrsAgo-11
1 YrAgo-12
ThisYear-13
Revenues Projected for FY2013
107.0 118.9 114.2
124.3 111.9 110.1 107.6 108.2
-
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
7 YrsAgo-06
6 YrsAgo-07
5 YrsAgo-08
4 YrsAgo-09
3 YrsAgo-10
2 YrsAgo-11
1 YrAgo-12
ThisYear-13
Operating Expenses Projected for FY2013
12.7 13.9
21.9 21.8 21.8
14.3 13.4 13.3
-
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
7 YrsAgo-06
6 YrsAgo-07
5 YrsAgo-08
4 YrsAgo-09
3 YrsAgo-10
2 YrsAgo-11
1 YrAgo-12
ThisYear-13
Debt Service Projected for FY2013
(8.8)
(16.9)
(10.4)
(8.8)
(14.9)
(0.3)
1.6 0.8
(20.0)
(15.0)
(10.0)
(5.0)
-
5.0
7 YrsAgo-06
6 YrsAgo-07
5 YrsAgo-08
4 YrsAgo-09
3 YrsAgo-10
2 YrsAgo-11
1 YrAgo-12
ThisYear-13
Operating Margin Projected for FY2013
TOWN Of CARY
110.9 115.8
125.6 137.4
118.8 124.0 122.6 122.3
-
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
7 YrsAgo-06
6 YrsAgo-07
5 YrsAgo-08
4 YrsAgo-09
3 YrsAgo-10
2 YrsAgo-11
1 YrAgo-12
ThisYear-13
Revenues Projected for FY2013
107.0 118.9 114.2
124.3 111.9 110.1 107.6 108.2
-
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
7 YrsAgo-06
6 YrsAgo-07
5 YrsAgo-08
4 YrsAgo-09
3 YrsAgo-10
2 YrsAgo-11
1 YrAgo-12
ThisYear-13
Operating Expenses Projected for FY2013
12.7 13.9
21.9 21.8 21.8
14.3 13.4 13.3
-
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
7 YrsAgo-06
6 YrsAgo-07
5 YrsAgo-08
4 YrsAgo-09
3 YrsAgo-10
2 YrsAgo-11
1 YrAgo-12
ThisYear-13
Debt Service Projected for FY2013
(8.8)
(16.9)
(10.4)
(8.8)
(14.9)
(0.3)
1.6 0.8
(20.0)
(15.0)
(10.0)
(5.0)
-
5.0
7 YrsAgo-06
6 YrsAgo-07
5 YrsAgo-08
4 YrsAgo-09
3 YrsAgo-10
2 YrsAgo-11
1 YrAgo-12
ThisYear-13
Operating Margin Projected for FY2013
TOWN Of CARY
110.9 115.8
125.6 137.4
118.8 124.0 122.6 122.3
-
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
7 YrsAgo-06
6 YrsAgo-07
5 YrsAgo-08
4 YrsAgo-09
3 YrsAgo-10
2 YrsAgo-11
1 YrAgo-12
ThisYear-13
Revenues Projected for FY2013
107.0 118.9 114.2
124.3 111.9 110.1 107.6 108.2
-
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
7 YrsAgo-06
6 YrsAgo-07
5 YrsAgo-08
4 YrsAgo-09
3 YrsAgo-10
2 YrsAgo-11
1 YrAgo-12
ThisYear-13
Operating Expenses Projected for FY2013
12.7 13.9
21.9 21.8 21.8
14.3 13.4 13.3
-
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
7 YrsAgo-06
6 YrsAgo-07
5 YrsAgo-08
4 YrsAgo-09
3 YrsAgo-10
2 YrsAgo-11
1 YrAgo-12
ThisYear-13
Debt Service Projected for FY2013
(8.8)
(16.9)
(10.4)
(8.8)
(14.9)
(0.3)
1.6 0.8
(20.0)
(15.0)
(10.0)
(5.0)
-
5.0
7 YrsAgo-06
6 YrsAgo-07
5 YrsAgo-08
4 YrsAgo-09
3 YrsAgo-10
2 YrsAgo-11
1 YrAgo-12
ThisYear-13
Operating Margin Projected for FY2013
TOWN Of CARY
110.9 115.8
125.6 137.4
118.8 124.0 122.6 122.3
-
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
7 YrsAgo-06
6 YrsAgo-07
5 YrsAgo-08
4 YrsAgo-09
3 YrsAgo-10
2 YrsAgo-11
1 YrAgo-12
ThisYear-13
Revenues Projected for FY2013
107.0 118.9 114.2
124.3 111.9 110.1 107.6 108.2
-
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
7 YrsAgo-06
6 YrsAgo-07
5 YrsAgo-08
4 YrsAgo-09
3 YrsAgo-10
2 YrsAgo-11
1 YrAgo-12
ThisYear-13
Operating Expenses Projected for FY2013
12.7 13.9
21.9 21.8 21.8
14.3 13.4 13.3
-
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
7 YrsAgo-06
6 YrsAgo-07
5 YrsAgo-08
4 YrsAgo-09
3 YrsAgo-10
2 YrsAgo-11
1 YrAgo-12
ThisYear-13
Debt Service Projected for FY2013
(8.8)
(16.9)
(10.4)
(8.8)
(14.9)
(0.3)
1.6 0.8
(20.0)
(15.0)
(10.0)
(5.0)
-
5.0
7 YrsAgo-06
6 YrsAgo-07
5 YrsAgo-08
4 YrsAgo-09
3 YrsAgo-10
2 YrsAgo-11
1 YrAgo-12
ThisYear-13
Operating Margin Projected for FY2013
TOWN Of CARY
110.9 115.8
125.6 137.4
118.8 124.0 122.6 122.3
-
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
7 YrsAgo-06
6 YrsAgo-07
5 YrsAgo-08
4 YrsAgo-09
3 YrsAgo-10
2 YrsAgo-11
1 YrAgo-12
ThisYear-13
Revenues Projected for FY2013
107.0 118.9 114.2
124.3 111.9 110.1 107.6 108.2
-
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
7 YrsAgo-06
6 YrsAgo-07
5 YrsAgo-08
4 YrsAgo-09
3 YrsAgo-10
2 YrsAgo-11
1 YrAgo-12
ThisYear-13
Operating Expenses Projected for FY2013
12.7 13.9
21.9 21.8 21.8
14.3 13.4 13.3
-
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
7 YrsAgo-06
6 YrsAgo-07
5 YrsAgo-08
4 YrsAgo-09
3 YrsAgo-10
2 YrsAgo-11
1 YrAgo-12
ThisYear-13
Debt Service Projected for FY2013
(8.8)
(16.9)
(10.4)
(8.8)
(14.9)
(0.3)
1.6 0.8
(20.0)
(15.0)
(10.0)
(5.0)
-
5.0
7 YrsAgo-06
6 YrsAgo-07
5 YrsAgo-08
4 YrsAgo-09
3 YrsAgo-10
2 YrsAgo-11
1 YrAgo-12
ThisYear-13
Operating Margin Projected for FY2013
TOWN Of CARY
110.9 115.8
125.6 137.4
118.8 124.0 122.6 122.3
-
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
7 YrsAgo-06
6 YrsAgo-07
5 YrsAgo-08
4 YrsAgo-09
3 YrsAgo-10
2 YrsAgo-11
1 YrAgo-12
ThisYear-13
Revenues Projected for FY2013
107.0 118.9 114.2
124.3 111.9 110.1 107.6 108.2
-
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
7 YrsAgo-06
6 YrsAgo-07
5 YrsAgo-08
4 YrsAgo-09
3 YrsAgo-10
2 YrsAgo-11
1 YrAgo-12
ThisYear-13
Operating Expenses Projected for FY2013
12.7 13.9
21.9 21.8 21.8
14.3 13.4 13.3
-
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
7 YrsAgo-06
6 YrsAgo-07
5 YrsAgo-08
4 YrsAgo-09
3 YrsAgo-10
2 YrsAgo-11
1 YrAgo-12
ThisYear-13
Debt Service Projected for FY2013
(8.8)
(16.9)
(10.4)
(8.8)
(14.9)
(0.3)
1.6 0.8
(20.0)
(15.0)
(10.0)
(5.0)
-
5.0
7 YrsAgo-06
6 YrsAgo-07
5 YrsAgo-08
4 YrsAgo-09
3 YrsAgo-10
2 YrsAgo-11
1 YrAgo-12
ThisYear-13
Operating Margin Projected for FY2013
TOWN Of CARY
110.9 115.8
125.6 137.4
118.8 124.0 122.6 122.3
-
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
7 YrsAgo-06
6 YrsAgo-07
5 YrsAgo-08
4 YrsAgo-09
3 YrsAgo-10
2 YrsAgo-11
1 YrAgo-12
ThisYear-13
Revenues Projected for FY2013
107.0 118.9 114.2
124.3 111.9 110.1 107.6 108.2
-
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
7 YrsAgo-06
6 YrsAgo-07
5 YrsAgo-08
4 YrsAgo-09
3 YrsAgo-10
2 YrsAgo-11
1 YrAgo-12
ThisYear-13
Operating Expenses Projected for FY2013
12.7 13.9
21.9 21.8 21.8
14.3 13.4 13.3
-
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
7 YrsAgo-06
6 YrsAgo-07
5 YrsAgo-08
4 YrsAgo-09
3 YrsAgo-10
2 YrsAgo-11
1 YrAgo-12
ThisYear-13
Debt Service Projected for FY2013
(8.8)
(16.9)
(10.4)
(8.8)
(14.9)
(0.3)
1.6 0.8
(20.0)
(15.0)
(10.0)
(5.0)
-
5.0
7 YrsAgo-06
6 YrsAgo-07
5 YrsAgo-08
4 YrsAgo-09
3 YrsAgo-10
2 YrsAgo-11
1 YrAgo-12
ThisYear-13
Operating Margin Projected for FY2013
TOWN Of CARY
110.9 115.8
125.6 137.4
118.8 124.0 122.6 122.3
-
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
7 YrsAgo-06
6 YrsAgo-07
5 YrsAgo-08
4 YrsAgo-09
3 YrsAgo-10
2 YrsAgo-11
1 YrAgo-12
ThisYear-13
Revenues Projected for FY2013
107.0 118.9 114.2
124.3 111.9 110.1 107.6 108.2
-
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
7 YrsAgo-06
6 YrsAgo-07
5 YrsAgo-08
4 YrsAgo-09
3 YrsAgo-10
2 YrsAgo-11
1 YrAgo-12
ThisYear-13
Operating Expenses Projected for FY2013
12.7 13.9
21.9 21.8 21.8
14.3 13.4 13.3
-
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
7 YrsAgo-06
6 YrsAgo-07
5 YrsAgo-08
4 YrsAgo-09
3 YrsAgo-10
2 YrsAgo-11
1 YrAgo-12
ThisYear-13
Debt Service Projected for FY2013
(8.8)
(16.9)
(10.4)
(8.8)
(14.9)
(0.3)
1.6 0.8
(20.0)
(15.0)
(10.0)
(5.0)
-
5.0
7 YrsAgo-06
6 YrsAgo-07
5 YrsAgo-08
4 YrsAgo-09
3 YrsAgo-10
2 YrsAgo-11
1 YrAgo-12
ThisYear-13
Operating Margin Projected for FY2013
TOWN Of CARY
110.9 115.8
125.6 137.4
118.8 124.0 122.6 122.3
-
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
7 YrsAgo-06
6 YrsAgo-07
5 YrsAgo-08
4 YrsAgo-09
3 YrsAgo-10
2 YrsAgo-11
1 YrAgo-12
ThisYear-13
Revenues Projected for FY2013
107.0 118.9 114.2
124.3 111.9 110.1 107.6 108.2
-
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
7 YrsAgo-06
6 YrsAgo-07
5 YrsAgo-08
4 YrsAgo-09
3 YrsAgo-10
2 YrsAgo-11
1 YrAgo-12
ThisYear-13
Operating Expenses Projected for FY2013
12.7 13.9
21.9 21.8 21.8
14.3 13.4 13.3
-
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
7 YrsAgo-06
6 YrsAgo-07
5 YrsAgo-08
4 YrsAgo-09
3 YrsAgo-10
2 YrsAgo-11
1 YrAgo-12
ThisYear-13
Debt Service Projected for FY2013
(8.8)
(16.9)
(10.4)
(8.8)
(14.9)
(0.3)
1.6 0.8
(20.0)
(15.0)
(10.0)
(5.0)
-
5.0
7 YrsAgo-06
6 YrsAgo-07
5 YrsAgo-08
4 YrsAgo-09
3 YrsAgo-10
2 YrsAgo-11
1 YrAgo-12
ThisYear-13
Operating Margin Projected for FY2013
TOWN Of CARY
110.9 115.8
125.6 137.4
118.8 124.0 122.6 122.3
-
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
7 YrsAgo-06
6 YrsAgo-07
5 YrsAgo-08
4 YrsAgo-09
3 YrsAgo-10
2 YrsAgo-11
1 YrAgo-12
ThisYear-13
Revenues Projected for FY2013
107.0 118.9 114.2
124.3 111.9 110.1 107.6 108.2
-
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
7 YrsAgo-06
6 YrsAgo-07
5 YrsAgo-08
4 YrsAgo-09
3 YrsAgo-10
2 YrsAgo-11
1 YrAgo-12
ThisYear-13
Operating Expenses Projected for FY2013
12.7 13.9
21.9 21.8 21.8
14.3 13.4 13.3
-
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
7 YrsAgo-06
6 YrsAgo-07
5 YrsAgo-08
4 YrsAgo-09
3 YrsAgo-10
2 YrsAgo-11
1 YrAgo-12
ThisYear-13
Debt Service Projected for FY2013
(8.8)
(16.9)
(10.4)
(8.8)
(14.9)
(0.3)
1.6 0.8
(20.0)
(15.0)
(10.0)
(5.0)
-
5.0
7 YrsAgo-06
6 YrsAgo-07
5 YrsAgo-08
4 YrsAgo-09
3 YrsAgo-10
2 YrsAgo-11
1 YrAgo-12
ThisYear-13
Operating Margin Projected for FY2013
TOWN Of CARY
110.9 115.8
125.6 137.4
118.8 124.0 122.6 122.3
-
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
7 YrsAgo-06
6 YrsAgo-07
5 YrsAgo-08
4 YrsAgo-09
3 YrsAgo-10
2 YrsAgo-11
1 YrAgo-12
ThisYear-13
Revenues Projected for FY2013
107.0 118.9 114.2
124.3 111.9 110.1 107.6 108.2
-
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
7 YrsAgo-06
6 YrsAgo-07
5 YrsAgo-08
4 YrsAgo-09
3 YrsAgo-10
2 YrsAgo-11
1 YrAgo-12
ThisYear-13
Operating Expenses Projected for FY2013
12.7 13.9
21.9 21.8 21.8
14.3 13.4 13.3
-
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
7 YrsAgo-06
6 YrsAgo-07
5 YrsAgo-08
4 YrsAgo-09
3 YrsAgo-10
2 YrsAgo-11
1 YrAgo-12
ThisYear-13
Debt Service Projected for FY2013
(8.8)
(16.9)
(10.4)
(8.8)
(14.9)
(0.3)
1.6 0.8
(20.0)
(15.0)
(10.0)
(5.0)
-
5.0
7 YrsAgo-06
6 YrsAgo-07
5 YrsAgo-08
4 YrsAgo-09
3 YrsAgo-10
2 YrsAgo-11
1 YrAgo-12
ThisYear-13
Operating Margin Projected for FY2013
TOWN Of CARY
110.9 115.8
125.6 137.4
118.8 124.0 122.6 122.3
-
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
7 YrsAgo-06
6 YrsAgo-07
5 YrsAgo-08
4 YrsAgo-09
3 YrsAgo-10
2 YrsAgo-11
1 YrAgo-12
ThisYear-13
Revenues Projected for FY2013
107.0 118.9 114.2
124.3 111.9 110.1 107.6 108.2
-
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
7 YrsAgo-06
6 YrsAgo-07
5 YrsAgo-08
4 YrsAgo-09
3 YrsAgo-10
2 YrsAgo-11
1 YrAgo-12
ThisYear-13
Operating Expenses Projected for FY2013
12.7 13.9
21.9 21.8 21.8
14.3 13.4 13.3
-
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
7 YrsAgo-06
6 YrsAgo-07
5 YrsAgo-08
4 YrsAgo-09
3 YrsAgo-10
2 YrsAgo-11
1 YrAgo-12
ThisYear-13
Debt Service Projected for FY2013
(8.8)
(16.9)
(10.4)
(8.8)
(14.9)
(0.3)
1.6 0.8
(20.0)
(15.0)
(10.0)
(5.0)
-
5.0
7 YrsAgo-06
6 YrsAgo-07
5 YrsAgo-08
4 YrsAgo-09
3 YrsAgo-10
2 YrsAgo-11
1 YrAgo-12
ThisYear-13
Operating Margin Projected for FY2013
TOWN Of CARY
110.9 115.8
125.6 137.4
118.8 124.0 122.6 122.3
-
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
7 YrsAgo-06
6 YrsAgo-07
5 YrsAgo-08
4 YrsAgo-09
3 YrsAgo-10
2 YrsAgo-11
1 YrAgo-12
ThisYear-13
Revenues Projected for FY2013
107.0 118.9 114.2
124.3 111.9 110.1 107.6 108.2
-
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
7 YrsAgo-06
6 YrsAgo-07
5 YrsAgo-08
4 YrsAgo-09
3 YrsAgo-10
2 YrsAgo-11
1 YrAgo-12
ThisYear-13
Operating Expenses Projected for FY2013
12.7 13.9
21.9 21.8 21.8
14.3 13.4 13.3
-
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
7 YrsAgo-06
6 YrsAgo-07
5 YrsAgo-08
4 YrsAgo-09
3 YrsAgo-10
2 YrsAgo-11
1 YrAgo-12
ThisYear-13
Debt Service Projected for FY2013
(8.8)
(16.9)
(10.4)
(8.8)
(14.9)
(0.3)
1.6 0.8
(20.0)
(15.0)
(10.0)
(5.0)
-
5.0
7 YrsAgo-06
6 YrsAgo-07
5 YrsAgo-08
4 YrsAgo-09
3 YrsAgo-10
2 YrsAgo-11
1 YrAgo-12
ThisYear-13
Operating Margin Projected for FY2013
TOWN Of CARY
110.9 115.8
125.6 137.4
118.8 124.0 122.6 122.3
-
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
7 YrsAgo-06
6 YrsAgo-07
5 YrsAgo-08
4 YrsAgo-09
3 YrsAgo-10
2 YrsAgo-11
1 YrAgo-12
ThisYear-13
Revenues Projected for FY2013
107.0 118.9 114.2
124.3 111.9 110.1 107.6 108.2
-
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
7 YrsAgo-06
6 YrsAgo-07
5 YrsAgo-08
4 YrsAgo-09
3 YrsAgo-10
2 YrsAgo-11
1 YrAgo-12
ThisYear-13
Operating Expenses Projected for FY2013
12.7 13.9
21.9 21.8 21.8
14.3 13.4 13.3
-
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
7 YrsAgo-06
6 YrsAgo-07
5 YrsAgo-08
4 YrsAgo-09
3 YrsAgo-10
2 YrsAgo-11
1 YrAgo-12
ThisYear-13
Debt Service Projected for FY2013
(8.8)
(16.9)
(10.4)
(8.8)
(14.9)
(0.3)
1.6 0.8
(20.0)
(15.0)
(10.0)
(5.0)
-
5.0
7 YrsAgo-06
6 YrsAgo-07
5 YrsAgo-08
4 YrsAgo-09
3 YrsAgo-10
2 YrsAgo-11
1 YrAgo-12
ThisYear-13
Operating Margin Projected for FY2013
TOWN Of CARY
110.9 115.8
125.6 137.4
118.8 124.0 122.6 122.3
-
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
7 YrsAgo-06
6 YrsAgo-07
5 YrsAgo-08
4 YrsAgo-09
3 YrsAgo-10
2 YrsAgo-11
1 YrAgo-12
ThisYear-13
Revenues Projected for FY2013
107.0 118.9 114.2
124.3 111.9 110.1 107.6 108.2
-
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
7 YrsAgo-06
6 YrsAgo-07
5 YrsAgo-08
4 YrsAgo-09
3 YrsAgo-10
2 YrsAgo-11
1 YrAgo-12
ThisYear-13
Operating Expenses Projected for FY2013
12.7 13.9
21.9 21.8 21.8
14.3 13.4 13.3
-
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
7 YrsAgo-06
6 YrsAgo-07
5 YrsAgo-08
4 YrsAgo-09
3 YrsAgo-10
2 YrsAgo-11
1 YrAgo-12
ThisYear-13
Debt Service Projected for FY2013
(8.8)
(16.9)
(10.4)
(8.8)
(14.9)
(0.3)
1.6 0.8
(20.0)
(15.0)
(10.0)
(5.0)
-
5.0
7 YrsAgo-06
6 YrsAgo-07
5 YrsAgo-08
4 YrsAgo-09
3 YrsAgo-10
2 YrsAgo-11
1 YrAgo-12
ThisYear-13
Operating Margin Projected for FY2013
TOWN Of CARY
110.9 115.8
125.6 137.4
118.8 124.0 122.6 122.3
-
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
7 YrsAgo-06
6 YrsAgo-07
5 YrsAgo-08
4 YrsAgo-09
3 YrsAgo-10
2 YrsAgo-11
1 YrAgo-12
ThisYear-13
Revenues Projected for FY2013
107.0 118.9 114.2
124.3 111.9 110.1 107.6 108.2
-
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
7 YrsAgo-06
6 YrsAgo-07
5 YrsAgo-08
4 YrsAgo-09
3 YrsAgo-10
2 YrsAgo-11
1 YrAgo-12
ThisYear-13
Operating Expenses Projected for FY2013
12.7 13.9
21.9 21.8 21.8
14.3 13.4 13.3
-
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
7 YrsAgo-06
6 YrsAgo-07
5 YrsAgo-08
4 YrsAgo-09
3 YrsAgo-10
2 YrsAgo-11
1 YrAgo-12
ThisYear-13
Debt Service Projected for FY2013
(8.8)
(16.9)
(10.4)
(8.8)
(14.9)
(0.3)
1.6 0.8
(20.0)
(15.0)
(10.0)
(5.0)
-
5.0
7 YrsAgo-06
6 YrsAgo-07
5 YrsAgo-08
4 YrsAgo-09
3 YrsAgo-10
2 YrsAgo-11
1 YrAgo-12
ThisYear-13
Operating Margin Projected for FY2013
TOWN Of CARY
110.9 115.8
125.6 137.4
118.8 124.0 122.6 122.3
-
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
7 YrsAgo-06
6 YrsAgo-07
5 YrsAgo-08
4 YrsAgo-09
3 YrsAgo-10
2 YrsAgo-11
1 YrAgo-12
ThisYear-13
Revenues Projected for FY2013
107.0 118.9 114.2
124.3 111.9 110.1 107.6 108.2
-
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
7 YrsAgo-06
6 YrsAgo-07
5 YrsAgo-08
4 YrsAgo-09
3 YrsAgo-10
2 YrsAgo-11
1 YrAgo-12
ThisYear-13
Operating Expenses Projected for FY2013
12.7 13.9
21.9 21.8 21.8
14.3 13.4 13.3
-
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
7 YrsAgo-06
6 YrsAgo-07
5 YrsAgo-08
4 YrsAgo-09
3 YrsAgo-10
2 YrsAgo-11
1 YrAgo-12
ThisYear-13
Debt Service Projected for FY2013
(8.8)
(16.9)
(10.4)
(8.8)
(14.9)
(0.3)
1.6 0.8
(20.0)
(15.0)
(10.0)
(5.0)
-
5.0
7 YrsAgo-06
6 YrsAgo-07
5 YrsAgo-08
4 YrsAgo-09
3 YrsAgo-10
2 YrsAgo-11
1 YrAgo-12
ThisYear-13
Operating Margin Projected for FY2013
TOWN Of CARY
110.9 115.8
125.6 137.4
118.8 124.0 122.6 122.3
-
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
7 YrsAgo-06
6 YrsAgo-07
5 YrsAgo-08
4 YrsAgo-09
3 YrsAgo-10
2 YrsAgo-11
1 YrAgo-12
ThisYear-13
Revenues Projected for FY2013
107.0 118.9 114.2
124.3 111.9 110.1 107.6 108.2
-
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
7 YrsAgo-06
6 YrsAgo-07
5 YrsAgo-08
4 YrsAgo-09
3 YrsAgo-10
2 YrsAgo-11
1 YrAgo-12
ThisYear-13
Operating Expenses Projected for FY2013
12.7 13.9
21.9 21.8 21.8
14.3 13.4 13.3
-
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
7 YrsAgo-06
6 YrsAgo-07
5 YrsAgo-08
4 YrsAgo-09
3 YrsAgo-10
2 YrsAgo-11
1 YrAgo-12
ThisYear-13
Debt Service Projected for FY2013
(8.8)
(16.9)
(10.4)
(8.8)
(14.9)
(0.3)
1.6 0.8
(20.0)
(15.0)
(10.0)
(5.0)
-
5.0
7 YrsAgo-06
6 YrsAgo-07
5 YrsAgo-08
4 YrsAgo-09
3 YrsAgo-10
2 YrsAgo-11
1 YrAgo-12
ThisYear-13
Operating Margin Projected for FY2013
TOWN Of CARY
Utility Fund Forecast Key Variables
TOWN Of CARY
Utility Fund Forecast Key Variables
$330M Western Wake
Regional Wastewater
Treatment Plant
In the CIP since 1997
TOWN Of CARY
Jordan
Lake
Holly
Springs
Apex
Cary
Harris
Lake
Shearon
Harris
Utility Fund Forecast Key Variables
TOWN Of CARY
Jordan
Lake
Holly
Springs
Apex
Cary
Harris
Lake
Shearon
Harris
Utility Fund Forecast Key Variables
TOWN Of CARY
Jordan
Lake
Holly
Springs
Apex
Cary
Harris
Lake
Shearon
Harris
• 2 major raw
wastewater pump
stations
• 8.5 miles of raw
wastewater
conveyance
• Wastewater treatment
facility 14 MGD
• Biosolids
management facilities
(holding tanks and
dewatering facilities)
• Effluent pump station
and 13.4 miles of
effluent pipeline
Utility Fund Forecast Key Variables
TOWN Of CARY
Utility Fund Forecast Key Variables
• Customer Base changes
• Consumption rate changes
• Investment Earnings
• Other revenues
• Baseline expenditure growth rate
• Operating Impacts of Capital
• Debt service needs
• Bond covenant coverage
(12 months operating expenses)
• % increase in rates for typical customer
TOWN Of CARY
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19
FY2009 Comparison: Original vs Rate Smoothing
FY 2009 Original
Utility Rate Increases
TOWN Of CARY
Implications of Rate Smoothing
Pro: Prevents huge increase in one year
Con: Steady pace of increases
Utility Rate Increases
TOWN Of CARY
Implications of Rate Smoothing
Pro: Prevents huge increase in one year
Con: Steady pace of increases
Pro: Generates PAYGO cash
Con: Raises cash before “necessary”
Utility Rate Increases
TOWN Of CARY
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19
FY2009 Comparison: Original vs Rate Smoothing
FY 2009 Original
Utility Rate Increases
TOWN Of CARY
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19
FY2009 Comparison: Original vs Rate Smoothing
FY 2009 Original FY 2009 Rate Smoothing
Utility Rate Increases
TOWN Of CARY
TOWN Of CARY
5,329 5,299
4,819 4,925 5,136
4,641 4,496
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
FY 2007 FY 2008 FY 2009 FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012
Estimated
FY 2013
Budget
Nu
mb
er o
f m
ete
rs
Average Number of Gallons Consumed Monthly by Single Family Residential Customers
Utility Rate Increases
TOWN Of CARY 126
0.0%
3.3%
13.2%
8.8%
2.7%
6.3%
1.9%
5.8%
2.2% 1.6%
6.0%
5.7%
6.6% 6.6% 4.1%
4.8%
3.9%
3.8%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020 FY 2021 FY 2022
An
nu
al %
In
cre
ase
Town of Cary Utility Rate Increase Forecast
(7,000 Gallon/Month Residential Customer)
Continuing to smooth rates in FY2013 and FY2014 generates an extra $7 million in revenue and avoids higher percentage increases in FY2015 and FY2016
Utility Rate Increases
TOWN Of CARY
Utility Rate Increases Water/Sewer
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
FY
20
02
FY
20
03
FY
20
04
FY
20
05
FY
20
06
FY
20
07
FY
20
08
FY
20
09
FY
20
10
FY
20
11
FY
20
12
FY
20
13
FY
20
14
FY
20
15
FY
20
16
FY
20
17
FY
20
18
FY
20
19
An
nu
al
Increa
se f
or a
7,0
00
Ga
llo
n
Resi
den
tia
l C
ust
om
er
Utility Rate Increases Historical and Projected As Of The
FY2013 Previews
TOWN Of CARY
Financial Forecasting in Cary
Utility Fund 1) Helped prepare for major $330M
project
2) Helped Council decide to smooth
rate increases starting 5 years early
TOWN Of CARY
Financial Forecasting in Cary
Utility Fund 1) Helped prepare for major $330M
project
2) Helped Council decide to smooth
rate increases starting 5 years early
General Fund 1) Delayed major capital projects and
related 2003 GO Debt
2) Helped Council with new GO Bond
decision factors