Forecast Review—Burlington, Vermont

Joshua Gooch, Michael Page, Heather WaldmanMETEO 415November 13, 2012

Burlington, Vermont

Map Facts• Size: 15.5 square

miles• City: 42,417• Metro: 211,261• Nickname: Queen

City• Home of University of

Vermont

Observations

• KBTV 072354Z 36010KT 10SM CLR 01/M06 A3008 AO2 SLP191 CIG OVC180 T00061061 10028 20006 52002

• KBTV 072254Z 34010KT 10SM CLR 01/M06 A3008 AO2 SLP190 CIG OVC190 T00061056

• KBTV 072154Z 35010KT 10SM SCT090 BKN120 01/M06 A3007 AO2 SLP189 CIG OVC200 T00111056

• KBTV 072054Z 36008KT 10SM SCT085 OVC120 02/M07 A3007 AO2 SLP188 T00221072 56015

• KBTV 071954Z 36008KT 10SM SCT085 BKN120 03/M07 A3009 AO2 SLP194 T00281067

• KBTV 071854Z 01009KT 10SM BKN085 BKN110 02/M06 A3010 AO2 SLP196 T00221061

• KBTV 071754Z 36006KT 10SM BKN085 BKN110 02/M07 A3012 AO2 SLP204 T00171067 10017 21050 58023

Observations• KBTV 081254Z 36010KT 10SM SCT065 BKN120 M01/M06 A3000 AO2 SLP163 T10111061

• KBTV 081154Z 36013KT 10SM SCT120 M02/M07 A3000 AO2 SLP162 T10171067 11006 21017 53006

• KBTV 081054Z 35012KT 10SM CLR M02/M07 A2998 AO2 SLP158 T10171067

• KBTV 080954Z 35014KT 10SM CLR M01/M07 A2998 AO2 SLP155 T10111067

• KBTV 080854Z 35011KT 10SM CLR M01/M07 A2998 AO2 SLP155 T10111067 58006

• KBTV 080754Z 35013KT 10SM CLR M01/M07 A2999 AO2 SLP159 T10111067

• KBTV 080654Z 35010KT 10SM CLR M01/M07 A2999 AO2 SLP160 T10061067

• KBTV 080554Z 35008KT 10SM CLR M01/M07 A3000 AO2 SLP161 T10061067 10006 21006 56015

• KBTV 080454Z 35007KT 10SM CLR 00/M07 A3001 AO2 SLP166 T00001067 400281056

• KBTV 080354Z 34005KT 10SM CLR M01/M06 A3002 AO2 SLP170 T10061061

• KBTV 080254Z 35010KT 10SM CLR 00/M06 A3004 AO2 SLP176 CIG OVC160 T00001061 58014

• KBTV 080154Z 36010KT 10SM CLR 00/M06 A3006 AO2 SLP182 CIG OVC160 T00001061

• KBTV 080054Z 35008KT 10SM CLR 01/M06 A3007 AO2 SLP187 CIG OVC160 T00061061

Observations• KBTV 082354Z 36012G20KT 10SM OVC024 03/M03 A2998 AO2 SLP156 T00331028 10033 20028 53009

• KBTV 082254Z 36010G20KT 10SM OVC024 03/M02 A2997 AO2 SLP152 T00331022

• KBTV 082154Z 01012KT 10SM OVC026 03/M03 A2995 AO2 SLP147 T00331028

• KBTV 082054Z 35013G21KT 10SM OVC026 03/M03 A2995 AO2 SLP146 T00331028 53002

• KBTV 081954Z 36012G19KT 10SM OVC024 03/M02 A2994 AO2 SLP143 T00331022

• KBTV 081854Z 35010KT 10SM OVC024 03/M03 A2994 AO2 SLP142 T00281028

• KBTV 081754Z 34014G22KT 10SM OVC026 03/M03 A2994 AO2 SLP144 T00281033 10028 21017 56012

• KBTV 081654Z 01013KT 10SM BKN024 BKN049 BKN060 03/M04 A2996 AO2 SLP149 T00281039

• KBTV 081650Z 36009KT 10SM BKN024 BKN049 BKN060 03/M04 A2996 AO2

• KBTV 081554Z 36011G19KT 10SM FEW030 BKN048 BKN060 01/M04 A2998 AO2 SLP156 T00111044

• KBTV 081454Z 36008KT 10SM FEW030 BKN065 BKN110 01/M05 A2999 AO2 SLP159 T00061050 58002

• KBTV 081354Z 35012G19KT 10SM FEW020 BKN065 BKN090 M01/M06 A3000 AO2 SLP163 T10111056

12z 7 November

15z SREF Guidance—for 12z 8 November

18z 7 November

2z 8 November

15z 8 November

KBTV Verifications

Survey Scores

Career Scores

Up Close & Personal…with Sean

Lessons Learned• North/Northwest wind off of nearby Lake

Champlain likely kept overnight lows above MOS

• Proximity to water can often lead to higher than expected gusts

• Good agreement from operational and ensembles on back-edge of precipitation leads to higher forecast confidence

Forecast Review—Nantucket, Massachusetts

Nantucket, Massachusetts

Map Facts• Size: 105.3 square

miles• Island (Full Time):

10,172• Island (Summer):

56,000• Settled: 1641• No traffic lights!

Observations• KACK 080253Z AUTO 02036G50KT 3SM BR BKN011 BKN014 OVC018 07/06 A2950 AO2 PK WND 03052/0200 RAE0157

SLP989 P0004 60011 T00670061 58031 TSNO• KACK 080242Z AUTO 03030G50KT 3SM BR BKN009 OVC016 07/06 A2951 AO2 PK WND 03052/0200 RAE0157 P0003 TSNO• KACK 080222Z AUTO 03034G49KT 2 1/2SM BR BKN009 OVC014 07/06 A2952 AO2 PK WND 03052/0200 RAE0157 P0002

TSNO• KACK 080206Z AUTO 03032G52KT 2 1/2SM BR OVC011 07/06 A2952 AO2 PK WND 03052/0200 RAE0157 P0000 TSNO • KACK 080153Z AUTO 03036G50KT 3SM -RA BR OVC011 07/06 A2953 AO2 PK WND 03050/0153 RAB25 SLP001 P0004

T00720056 TSNO • KACK 080115Z 03039G48KT 3SM BR BKN011 OVC019 07/06 A2955 AO2 PK WND 04049/0059 P0001• KACK 080107Z 03033G49KT 2 1/2SM BR BKN011 OVC017 07/06 A2956 AO2 PK WND 04049/0059 P0001 • KACK 080053Z 03035G48KT 3SM BR BKN013 OVC018 07/05 A2957 AO2 PK WND 04052/0023 RAE27 SLP013 P0003

T00670050 • KACK 080017Z 03032G47KT 4SM BR OVC013 06/05 A2959 AO2 PK WND 03050/0006 RAE04 P0000 • KACK 080004Z 03037G50KT 5SM BR OVC015 06/04 A2959 AO2 PK WND 03050/0003 RAE04 P0000 • KACK 072353Z 03034G47KT 5SM -RA BR BKN013 OVC020 06/04 A2959 AO2 PK WND 03053/2341 RAB24 SLP020 P0003

60067 T00610044 10072 20056 58007

Observations• KACK 080753Z AUTO 02040G57KT 2 1/2SM -SN OVC007 A2931 AO2 PK WND 02057/0752 SLP927 P0014 TSNO

• KACK 080746Z AUTO 02035G53KT 2 1/2SM -SN OVC007 A2932 AO2 PK WND 02054/0703 P0012 TSNO

• KACK 080732Z AUTO 02039G53KT 1 3/4SM -SN OVC009 A2933 AO2 PK WND 02054/0703 P0010 TSNO

• KACK 080724Z AUTO 02038G52KT 3SM -SN BKN009 OVC012 A2934 AO2 PK WND 02054/0703 P0005 TSNO

• KACK 080653Z AUTO 02039G57KT 2SM -SN OVC009 A2936 AO2 PK WND 03057/0651 SLP944 P0016 TSNO

• KACK 080643Z AUTO 02038G53KT 1 1/2SM -SN OVC009 A2936 AO2 PK WND 03053/0642 P0013 TSNO

• KACK 080626Z AUTO 02036G47KT 2 1/2SM -SN BKN009 OVC013 A2938 AO2 PK WND 01052/0556 P0005 TSNO

• KACK 080613Z AUTO 02036G50KT 4SM -SN BKN011 OVC014 A2940 AO2 PK WND 01052/0556 P0002 TSNO

• KACK 080600Z AUTO 03031G52KT 2 1/2SM -SN OVC011 A2940 AO2 PK WND 01052/0556 P0001 TSNO

• KACK 080553Z AUTO 03039G52KT 3SM -SN BKN009 OVC014 A2940 AO2 PK WND 03059/0455 UPB15E39SNE11B20E35B39 SLP957 P0002 60034 58031 TSNO

• KACK 080504Z AUTO 03038G59KT 4SM -SN BKN011 OVC016 A2943 AO2 PK WND 03059/0455 CIG 007V014 P0000 TSNO

• KACK 080457Z AUTO 02036G59KT 2 1/2SM -SN BKN011 OVC016 A2943 AO2 PK WND 03059/0455 P0000 TSNO

• KACK 080453Z AUTO 03041G50KT 3SM -SN BKN009 OVC016 A2943 AO2 PK WND 03055/0406 RAE29SNB17 SLP968 P0018 400940056 TSNO

• KACK 080435Z AUTO 03036G50KT 5SM -SN BKN009 BKN016 OVC022 A2945 AO2 PK WND 03055/0406 RAE29SNB17 P0017 TSNO

• KACK 080408Z AUTO 03036G55KT 2SM RA BR BKN009 OVC017 08/07 A2948 AO2 PK WND 03055/0406 P0008 TSNO

• KACK 080353Z AUTO 03036G52KT 3SM -RA BR BKN009 OVC015 08/07 A2948 AO2 PK WND 03053/0325 RAB13E20B41 SLP981 P0003 T00780067 TSNO

• KACK 080341Z AUTO 03038G51KT 3SM -RA BR BKN009 OVC017 08/07 A2947 AO2 PK WND 03053/0325 RAB13E20B41 P0001 TSNO

Observations• KACK 081553Z 05018G26KT 1 3/4SM -RA BR OVC008 13/12 A2917 AO2 PK WND 06032/1506 SLP880 P0008 T01280117

• KACK 081534Z 05021G30KT 1 3/4SM R24/4000VP6000FT +RA BR OVC008 13/12 A2917 AO2 PK WND 06032/1506 P0006

• KACK 081453Z 05022G31KT 5SM -RA BR BKN011 OVC026 13/12 A2916 AO2 PK WND 06034/1438 RAE32B53 SLP876 P0000 60005 T01330117 55020

• KACK 081353Z 03019G34KT 6SM -RA BR OVC013 13/12 A2916 AO2 PK WND 01034/1345 SLP876 P0003 T01280117

• KACK 081253Z 02023KT 6SM -RA BR BKN019 OVC024 13/12 A2920 AO2 PK WND 02031/1154 RAB1154 SLP887 P0002 T01330117

• KACK 081153Z 01025G34KT 6SM BR FEW007 SCT011 OVC019 12/11 A2922 AO2 PK WND 01046/1102 RAB1055E51 SLP896 P0003 60113 70245 T01170111 58014

• KACK 081148Z 02028G34KT 6SM BR SCT007 BKN016 OVC021 12/11 A2922 AO2 PK WND 01046/1102 RAB1055E47 P0003

• KACK 081053Z AUTO 01034G49KT 5SM BR BKN007 OVC013 10/09 A2923 AO2 PK WND 01051/1004 RAB10E32 SLP899 P0026 T01000094 TSNO

• KACK 081030Z AUTO 02039G47KT 2SM R24/5000VP6000FT -RA BR OVC007 10/09 A2925 AO2 PK WND 01051/1004 RAB10 P0024 TSNO

• KACK 081000Z AUTO 02035G51KT 1 1/4SM R24/5500VP6000FT BR OVC007 10/09 A2926 AO2 PK WND 03051/0958 P0005 TSNO

• KACK 080953Z AUTO 02040G50KT 2SM BR OVC007 10/09 A2926 AO2 PK WND 02055/0903 RAE41 SLP909 P0023 T01000089 TSNO

• KACK 080950Z AUTO 02034G50KT 3SM BR OVC007 09/09 A2927 AO2 PK WND 02055/0903 RAE41 P0021 TSNO

• KACK 080853Z AUTO 02039G51KT 2SM -RA BR OVC007 09/09 A2929 AO2 PK WND 01056/0823 RAB46SNE09 SLP917 P0031 60061 T00940089 56040 TSNO

• KACK 080809Z AUTO 02041G53KT 1 1/4SM R24/5500VP6000FT BR OVC007 09/08 A2929 AO2 PK WND 02054/0756 SNE09 P0009 TSNO

Observations• KACK 082353Z AUTO 34029G43KT 10SM OVC008 09/08 A2949 AO2 PK WND 34043/2352 RAE49 CIG 007V012 SLP986 P0000

60001 T00890078 10122 20089 51051 TSNO

• KACK 082253Z 33027G41KT 9SM -RA BKN008 BKN015 OVC020 09/08 A2945 AO2 PK WND 33043/2233 RAB51 CIG 007V011 SLP971 P0000 T00890078

• KACK 082202Z 33025G34KT 10SM SCT008 OVC012 09/08 A2940 AO2 PK WND 33034/2202

• KACK 082155Z 33024G33KT 10SM BKN008 OVC012 10/08 A2940 AO2 PK WND 32033/2154 CIG 006V012

• KACK 082153Z 33024G32KT 10SM OVC012 10/09 A2939 AO2 PK WND 34035/2121 RAB16E20 SLP954 P0001 T01000089

• KACK 082146Z 33024G30KT 10SM SCT008 BKN014 OVC019 10/09 A2939 AO2 PK WND 34035/2121 RAB16E20 P0001

• KACK 082053Z 36025G39KT 10SM BKN013 BKN024 11/08 A2934 AO2 PK WND 35043/2033 SLP935 60000 T01060083 53054

• KACK 081953Z 36026G41KT 10SM BKN013 OVC020 11/08 A2928 AO2 PK WND 36041/1951 RAE07B27E37 SLP916 P0000 T01060083

• KACK 081950Z 36028G41KT 9SM BKN015 OVC023 10/08 A2928 AO2 PK WND 01041/1944 RAE07B27E37 P0000

• KACK 081853Z 01026G34KT 4SM -RA BR BKN008 OVC012 11/09 A2923 AO2 PK WND 02035/1835 CIG 006V010 SLP897 P0000 T01060094

• KACK 081753Z 01021G29KT 5SM -RA BR BKN006 OVC039 12/11 A2918 AO2 PK WND 03032/1742 SLP882 P0000 60015 T01220111 10139 20117 53005

• KACK 081705Z 04021G32KT 3SM -RA BR BKN006 BKN011 OVC018 12/12 A2917 AO2 PK WND 03032/1703 P0000

• KACK 081658Z 04022G30KT 2 1/2SM -RA BR BKN006 BKN011 OVC018 13/12 A2917 AO2 PK WND 04030/1655 P0000

• KACK 081653Z 03022G31KT 3SM -RA BR SCT006 SCT011 OVC018 13/12 A2917 AO2 PK WND 03031/1645 SLP878 P0002 T01280122

2z 8 November

12z 8 November

18z GFS Guidance—for 12z 8 November

13z 8 November

23z 8 November

Damage

KACK Verifications

Career Scores

Up Close and Personal…with Billy

Lessons Learned

• Island locations stay windy, especially with storm nearby

• Proximity to center of the storm will impact wind direction

• Temperatures likely to warm as coastal storm nears