football league play-offs: the true value of football’s most lucrative game

8/9/2019 Football League Play-Offs: The true value of football’s most lucrative game

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Football League Play-Offs

The true value of football’s most lucrative game.This weekend sees the conclusion of the Football League season with the Play-Off

Finals at Wembley.

Billed as the £100M match by the media, Octagon decided to take a deeper

dive into the true value of the Championship Play-Off and what promotion really

means in monetary value to the winning team.

Here, Dan Haddad takes a look at the commercial streams of the two clubs in the

Final and the added value they would receive once in the Premier League inorder to put a true value on football’s most lucrative game.

www.octagon-uk.com | T: 020 7862 0000

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£60M £5.2M £2.9M £68.1M

£40M £2.8M £3.1M £45.9M

THE REAL* VALUE OF THE PLAY-OFF FINAL

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Middlesbrough

BROADCAST REVENUE: £60m - Based on reaching the Play-Off Final, Middlesbrough’s share of

Football League centrally distributed revenue will be enhanced. Based on numbers of teams

reaching the Play-Off Final over the past few seasons, Boro’s TV revenue will be in the region of£5.5m this season. If Middlesbrough finish bottom of the Premier League next season, under current

PL distribution they will expect in the region of £65.5m (based on QPR this season). The additional

value for next season is therefore around £60m

GATE RECEIPTS: £5.2m - Last season Middlesbrough’s gate receipts totalled £3.8m. If we use this asthe base, and assuming in the Premier League they achieved average capacity in the mid-90%s, we

would expect this to rise to around £9m based on the size of the Stadium and expected ticket prices

and hospitality sales for a Club in the North East of England. Additional value of £5.2m

COMMERCIAL: £2.1m - Last season Middlesbrough totalled commercial revenue of £3.4m. In the first

season back in the Premier League, with increased LED sales and enhanced partnership values we

would conservatively estimate a value of £5.5m. Additional value £2.1m

OTHER: £0.8m - We could expect increase in merchandise sales from £1.2m to around £2m with a

more engaged fan base next season. Additional value £0.8m

TOTAL MINIMUM INCREASED VALUE FOR 2015/16 SEASON - £68.1M





Norwich

BROADCAST: £40m - Norwich will be receiving parachute payments this season due to relegation a

year ago. We expect their broadcast revenue to be around £30m this season – if Norwich were to

remain in the Championship next season, their parachute payments would fall by £4.8m. Using the

value for finishing bottom of the Premier League next season, this represents additional value of£40m

GATE RECEIPTS: £2.8m - Last season in the Premier League, the Club’s gate receipts were £11.3m.Club accounts for recent seasons when the Club have competed in the Championship indicate thisseason’s gate receipts will be around £8.5m. Additional value of £2.8m

COMMERCIAL: £3.1m - Last season in the Premier League, the Club’s commercial revenue totalled

£9.1m. Club accounts for recent seasons when the Club have competed in the Championshipindicate this season’s commercial income may fall to around £6m. Additional value of £3.1m.

Norwich do not break down merchandise sales in annual reports, so assume this increase includes

increased sales

TOTAL MIMIMUM INCREASED VALUE FOR 2015/16 SEASON - £45.9M







“THE FINANCIAL BENEFIT OF PROMOTION IS CLEAR, BUT THE KEY WILL

BE FOR THE PROMOTED SIDE TO SURVIVE NEXT SEASON IN THE PREMIERLEAGUE TO BENEFIT FROM THE NEW PREMIER LEAGUE TV DEAL WHICH

COMMENCES AT THE START OF THE 2016/17 SEASON”

DANIEL HADDAD

Senior Account ManagerStrategy & Insights

football league play-offs: the true value of football’s most lucrative game

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