足球比赛预测

主讲人：卢亮组长：徐飒

组员：陈新平、董师师、刘禄斌、李成果

两种预测方法• 整体预测法• 过程预测法

整体预测法• Forecasting the Professional Team Sporting

Events: Evidence from Euro 2000 and 2004 Football Tournaments(Ferda HALICIOGLU, 2005 )

• There exists empirical evidence that the tight competition in domestic football would improve international success considerably.

整体预测法 (2)

• The seasonal CV(coefficient of variation) values computed from the end-of-season points of a domestic football league.

• Short-term, mid-term and long-term seasonal CV values.

• This forecasting approach provides significantly reliable results in the case of Euro 2000 but not in the case of Euro 2004.

整体预测法 (3)

整体预测法 (4)

• 优点： Short-term, mid-term and long-term seasonal CV values 容易计算或近似，如使用UEFA 的 Season country coefficients 和Country coefficients.

• 缺点：没有考虑分组情况、比赛过程；国内联赛排名与国家队国际比赛并不直接相关。

过程预测法• 排名与分级FIFA World RankingElo Ratings System

FIFA World Ranking

特点：官方、公认、积分方式公开、定期更新

FIFA World Ranking (Calculation)

• Calculation of points for a single match

• M: Points for match result• I: Importance of match• T: Strength of opposing team• C: Strength of confederation

(from fifa.com)

P = M x I x T x C

Elo Ratings System

• ELO 等级分制度是指由匈牙利裔美国物理学家 Elo 创建的一个衡量各类对弈活动水平的评价方法，是当今对弈水平评估的公认的权威方法。被广泛用于国际象棋、围棋、足球、篮球等运动。 (Wikipedia)

• 特点：严格的数学模型、通行于对弈类活动、方便计算双方胜率、以及根据对阵结果进行更新反馈。

Elo Ratings System( 计分方法 )

• Elo 模型使用 Logistic distribution

• 假设选手 ( 球队 )A 和 B 的当前等级分为 RA和 RB

• 假如选手在比赛中的真实得分与其胜率期望值不同，则等级分要作相应的调整

Elo Ratings

(from eloratings.net)

过程预测法 (2)

• 过程预测法可以充分利用 FIFA World Ranking 或 Elo Ratings System 进行单场比赛的预测 ( 后者还可以进行反馈 ).

• 根据小组赛和淘汰赛阶段的分组对阵情况预测各球队的胜率，进而预测冠军归属。

过程预测法 (3)

• 优点：考虑到分组情况、比赛过程等因素；可以根据实际比赛结果对预测结果进行更新。在预测模型中可以对球队数据进行反馈。

• 缺点：预测模型复杂，数据量和计算量较大。

预测实例： The Castrol EDGE UEFA EURO 2012™ Tournament Calculator

• Predict by evaluating each team's attack and defense.

• Together with the structure of the tournament, to predict how well each team will do.

• 过程预测法(from castroledge.com)

The Castrol EDGE UEFA EURO 2012™ Tournament Calculator Explained

• Step 1:use goals scored and conceded to generate the attack and defense ratings for each team. More recent goals are given greater relevance than those scored longer ago.

The Castrol EDGE UEFA EURO 2012™ Tournament Calculator Explained(2)

• Step 2:take the attack and defense ratings and convert them to average number of goals scored for Team A vs Team B.

Home team:Team A: Attack = 0.8 Defense = 1.1Home advantage = 1.4Away team:Team B: Attack = 1.7 Defense = 0.7

Average number of Team A goals:0.8 x 0.7 x 1.4 = 0.784Average number of Team B goals:1.7 x 1.1 = 1.870

The Castrol EDGE UEFA EURO 2012™ Tournament Calculator Explained(3)

• Step 3: feed the average number of goals into a probability distribution model to calculate the likelihood of a team scoring a specific number of goals.

Probability Team A score:0 goals = 46%1 goals = 36%2 goals = 14% etc.

Probability Team B score:0 goals = 15%1 goals = 29%2 goals = 27% etc.

The Castrol EDGE UEFA EURO 2012™ Tournament Calculator Explained(4)

• Step 4:Through these percentages we can calculate the probability of any score.

The Castrol EDGE UEFA EURO 2012™ Tournament Calculator Results

参考文献• Forecasting the Professional Team Sporting Events: Evidence

from Euro 2000 and 2004 Football Tournaments (Ferda HALICIOGLU, 2005 )

• Forecasting sports tournaments by ratings of (prob)abilities A comparison for the EURO 2008 (Christoph Leitner etc, 2010)

• FIFA World Ranking (fifa.com)• Wikipedia: Elo rating system, Logistic distribution

(wikipedia.org)• World Football Elo Ratings (eloratings.net)• Castrol Football EURO 2012 Tournament Calculator

(castroledge.com)

谢谢！