Food security in the context of Climate Change in Martadi VDC of Bajura district (FWDR), Nepal

By Basudev UpadhyayRegistration No: 5-2-37-790-2002

College of Applied sciences - NepalM.Sc. 63/64Roll No 525

Introduction

Background information/Research needPoor self sufficiency (Deficit by 12,935 Mt. in 2011) (CBS 2011)Average income – Rs 3,428 per month (CBS 2011) Approx. 92,700 people out of a district total of 123,400 are classified as highly or severely food insecure (NeKSAP 2009)Availability and Requirement of Cereals (Mt.) (MoAC 2011)Total edible prod – 9825; Requirement – 22760; Deficit – 12935Transportations is poorly developedNo intensive studies have been carried out in the area of interestNo climatic data availableMigrations (poverty induced, seasonal)Calorie consumption for Bajura: 1628 kcal/person/day (MoAC 2010)

Introduction…

Specific Research QuestionsWhat is Food Security in Nepalese context?Who is food insecure in the far western region?Why are they food insecure?How is the situation likely to evolve and what are the Risks threatening them? How have the climate change affected the food security situation in the district?What will be the future scenario of agricultural productivity with the existing climatic conditions?How have the locals been coping with food insecure situation?What are the government, non-government and other agencies’ interventions to overcome the food security situation? What can be done to save their lives and livelihoods in food insecure situation?

Introduction…

ObjectivesTo understand the food security situation in Martadi VDC of Bajura district of far western region, Nepal.To know the climate change impacts on agriculture and agricultural productions.To explore the possible adaptation measures in agriculture and livelihood of people.To analyze the interventions of the government, non government and community organizations in coping food insecure situation.

Methodology

Literature Reviews Socio-economic surveys

Household Questionnaire surveys

Sampling:

Sample size (n) = N*z2*P (1-P)/N*d2 + z2*P (1-P) (Arkin and Colton 1963)

N = Total number of households (1109)z = value of standard variate at 95% confidence level (1.96)P = estimated population proportion (0.05)d = error limit of 5% (0.05)Hence, Sample size (n) = 69

Sampling Design = n/N *100 n=sample households in the specific village cluster N = total no. of households in the entire study area

Stakeholders consultations Field Observations Analysis/Writing

Study area maps

Map of the district (Not to scale) Digital Himalaya

Zoom in Map of Martadi VDC (Imported from google earth on 1st Feb 2012)

Village clusters

Martadi Ukhadi Kabalta Chaurata Total

TotalHH 757 89 100 162 1109Samples 47 6 7 10 69

Result and Discussions

Agricul-ture

Livestock Services Business Remitance Others

<5000 0.345454545000002

0.381818182000004

0 0.154545455000002

0 0.018181818

5000-15000

0.672727273000008

0.209090909

0.127272727

0.127272727

0 0.054545455

>15000

0.072727273000000

4

0 0.581818181999996

0.2 0.045454545

0.109090909

5.0%

15.0%

25.0%

35.0%

45.0%

55.0%

65.0%

75.0%

<5000 5000-15000 >15000

Response to Income Level

37%

32%

16%

1%13%

Crop farming Livestock Service

Overseas employment Others

Response to Occupations

Peoples perceptions

< 10 Ropani 10-20 Ropani 20-25 Ropani > 25 Ropani Landless

37.3%

30.9%

22.7%

1.9%

7.3%

Landholdings

Landholding sizes

Landless 3 Months 6 Months 9 Months 12 Months Others

7.0%

39.4%

28.1%

8.5%5.9%

11.1%

Food Sufficiency

Food Sufficiency

People’s perceptions…

Peoples perceptions…

Yes43%

No57%

Yes No

Response to state of climate change awareness

48.2%

39.1%

12.7%

Decreasing Increasing No significance

Response to Impact on crop farming

Disease

/pests

Lack

of Irrig

ation

Lack

of quality

Seed gra

ins

Lack

of Ferti

lizers

Don't know

27.9%

41.9%

10.1%

20.2%

13.2%

Reason for decrease in production

People’s perceptions…

Firewood Fodder and Grass

Medicinal herbs

Others

41.0% 38.2%

9.0% 11.8%

Purpose of forest use

Forest utility

Degraded Improved No change

49.8%

35.6%

14.5%

Forest Status

Forest status over the years

People’s perceptions…

Increased Decreased No Change Don' know Irrigular

Temperature 0.445454545 0.0272727270000002 0.236363636 0.109090909 0.181818182000002

Precipitation 0.181818182000002 0.390909091000003 0.181818182000002 0.127272727 0.118181818

Snowfall 0 0.663636364 0.0272727270000002 0.136363636 0.172727273

5.0%

15.0%

25.0%

35.0%

45.0%

55.0%

65.0%

Response to climatic parameters

People’s perceptions…

River water Rain water Sprins and wells

Others

33.1%

11.0%18.1%

37.8%

Source of water for Irrigation

Source of water for irrigation

Drought Flood Landslide Soil erosion others

24.7%

17.7%

34.8%

13.6%9.1%

Disaster types

Disaster types

People’s perceptions…

Drinking water Agriculture Infrastructure No impact

19.2%

55.8%

11.7% 13.3%

Climate induced disaster

Climate induced disaster44.1%

16.2% 9.8%24.5%

5.4%

Preventive measures

Preventions measures

Support

from Gos/N

GOs

Sellin

g live

stock

Loan

Support

from neig

hbour

Migrate

Remitt

ance

Off-farm

No resp

onse

21.8%

29.1%

10.0% 10.0%3.6% 1.8%

10.9% 12.7%

Resilience measures

Resilience measures

Adaptation and Mitigation Techniques in Practice

Traditional Practices - Terraces shortening weeding calendar dry leaves spreading and reaping after sawing seed Burning offering Puja Scare crow Mulching Mixed – ( inter ) cropping Keeping the land fallow for sometimes Use of plant indigenous materials (Titepati, Khirro, ashuro, Dhangari.. Planting trees , using stone dykes to prevent extreme case of flooding Fodder collection during August, September, and October small ditches are constructed to cope water needs,

Modified techniques – plastic sheet cover over seedling, support sticks to prevent crops from falling, making greenhouse , hybrid

seeds..

District Stats

Cultivated Land Grass Lands Forests Shrubs/Bushes Others 0

20000400006000080000

100000120000140000160000180000

Area (ha) 1986 Area (ha) 2001 Area (ha) 2006 Land Cover 2010

Land-use change through 1986 – 2010 Source: NLS 2011

Cereals

Cash

Specia

l Cro

ps

Marke

ting

Agri-tools

Irrigation

Energy/B

iogas

Land/H

ousing

Agri/Cotton In

dustry

Godown

Livesto

ck

Herticu

lture

Tea Coffee

Business/

Servi

ces

Others0

2000000

4000000

6000000

0150030004500

Investment in the country Investment in Bajura

Investment comparison (‘000) Source: ESD 2006/07

Agriculture Irrigation Forest0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

Current Capital Total

Expenditure of Govt. (Million) Source: ESD 2006/07

Agriculture Irrigation Forest0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

Grant Loan Total

Foreign Aid Distribution in Bajura (Million) Source: ESD 2006/07

1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 20121000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

2400

2600

2800

f(x) = − 16.7484485724176 x + 35541.0695872157

Total Annual Linear (Total Annual) 3 years moving mean Linear (3 years moving mean) MeanRainfall is decreasing with the decrease in total rainy days.

Precipitation in Bajura 1990 – 2010Source: DHM 2011

Annual mean Annual max Annual min Pre- Monsoon Monsoon Post- monsoon

Winter

17.8 24.4 6.6 18.63 17.45 19.4 17.73

Seasonal breakdown of temperature

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec0

10203040506070

Tmax( ) Tmin() Mean

Temperature 2010 (DHM 2011)

Discharge Analysis

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 20070

20

40

60

80

100

120

f(x) = − 2.57985714285648 x + 5246.33600793518

Annual Mean discharge Linear (Annual Mean discharge) MeanAverage3 yr moving mean

Government and stakeholder interventions

• NFC distributes cereals at subsidized prices delivers emergency food relief to communities that have been affected by natural disasters.

• The World Bank and the ADB are the principal multilateral donors (poverty alleviation interventions: food/cash-for-assets (F/CFA) .

• DFID is working especially in helping make the APP more pro-poor: DoLIDAR road project.

• WFP works with government to improve food access for the disadvantaged, including mothers and babies, Schoolchildren, refugees!

• WUPAP – joint endeavor between GoN and IFAD – poverty alleviation (phase 1: Jan 2003)

• local stakeholders playing notable roles - DAO, GIFT Bajura, MISS Bajura, SAPROS, DRSP etc.)

Agricultural Land-use Change land is not so productive – near by pastures and forests

being cleared – khets decreasing, Pakho bari increasing irrigated soil washed away due to monsoon rain and

flood Increased barren lands due to construction of

agriculture road

Crop Farming and Food Sufficiency Each household practiced farming along with livestock

raring Not a single irrigation canal exists Winter crops have high potential The main source of every day diet is bread Slight shift in the plantation and harvesting time

Conclusions and Recommendations

Adaptation Measures Planting trees Constructing river embankments and stone dykes Terraces of different forms, Crop rotation Inter cropping Mixed cropping Use of high yielding variety seeds Maintaining seed storages

Conclusions and Recommendations…

Conclusions and Recommendations…

Recommendations• Further research on impact of climate change on specific crops• Promotion of bread yielding and dry land crops (millet, maize,

potato wheat and vegetables..)• Irrigations • Create Emergency preparedness stocks (e.g. micro-irrigation

equipment; pipe/sprinkler irrigation and cash crop seeds) • Community seed production• Need to increase the supply quota by NFC

Climate change and food security•Erratic climatic patterns - Rainfall is decreasing with the decrease in total rainy days. •Natural disasters - deteriorating food security situation (Lack of early warning system and preparedness to disaster)• Decreasing productivity – increasing food deficiency•Several traditional adaptive techniques are practiced to overcome climate induced disasters.. Should be accompanied with modern techniques and improvised..

Changes high in the mountains affect availability of resources downstream

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