Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit

Somalia

Northeast

Gu 2011

17th August , 2011

EUROPEAN COMMISSION

Swiss Agency for Development and

CooperationSDC

Information for Better Livelihoods

Gu 2011 Seasonal Assessment Coverage

Field Access and Field Data Locations

Normal access in all districts and livelihoods except Alula district due to political unrest

Main Livelihood Groups

Seven Pastoral Livelihood Groups: Hawd, Sool Plateau, Nugal valley, Addun, East Golis, Karkaar Dharoor and Coastal Deeh

Main Sources of Food and Income for the poor HH: oPrimary sources of income is sale of livestock & livestock products (fishing & gums for Coastal and Golis)oPrimary source of food is purchase oPrimary livelihood assets are camel and sheep/goat

Overall statement: The overall performance of the season was near normal in Northeast, except pockets in Nugal, Coastal Deeh and east Golis.

Start of RainsStarted late in 3rd Dekad of April in all livelihood zones

Temporal and spatial distributionBari Region: delayed, localized with average intensity.

Nugal and Northern Mudug: Generally average with the exception of Coastal Deeh of Eyl, localized areas in southern Hawd of Garowe and northern Galkayo.

ClimateGu 2011 Seasonal Performance

Gu 2011 RFE percent from normal (long-term mean)

ClimateVegetation conditions

Trends in NDVI & RFE by district & land cover

Civil Insecurity

Overall situation: Predominantly stable security situation

Bossaso: Tension related with clan retaliation has renewed and escalated in Kobdhexaad of Bossaso district. Frankincense collection activities have been hampered in East Golis LZ

Galkayo towns: Shooting and killing of the prominent figures on political ground in the town. Trade disruptions caused by instability of security situation.

Presence of sea pirates in the water off the Coastal Deeh livelihood: Affects income to fishing communities as well as trade activities of local traders/merchants.

Cereal Flow MapGu 2011

Cereal inflow from Togdheer through Sool

and Sanaag regions

Pasture and Browse conditionGenerally pasture and rangeland condition is average with the exception of Coastal Deeh and adjacent areas of Sool Plateau, parts of East Golis (Qandala and of Bari region) and localized area in southern Hawd of Garowe and northern sector of Galkayo.

LivestockVegetation Conditions and Migration

Migration:Livestock migration in most regions are normal with exceptions of Coastal Deeh and East Golis pastoralists which migrated to Sool Plateau of Qardho and Dharoor Valley - Iskushuban

Water ConditionVery Poor: In Coastal DeehPoor: East GolisNormal: in elsewhere Water Prices: High (4,000SoSh/20 liter)

Livestock Trends in Livestock Holdings and Milk Production

Region Livelihoods Conception

(Gu ’11) Calving/kidding

(Gu ‘11) Milk production

(Gu ‘11)

Expected calving/ kidding

Jul – Dec ’11Trends in Herd Size (Dec ‘11)

Northeast Hawd Pastoral Camel : low Sh/Goat: medium

Camel: mediumSh/goat: low

Camel: averageSh/goat: poor

Camel : low to mediumSh/Goat: medium

Camel: increase ( As Baseline)Goats: Decrease (Below Baseline)

East Golis Camel : low Sh/Goat: medium

Camel: lowSh/goat: low

poor Camel : low Sh/Goat: medium

Camel: slight decrease (No baseline)Goats: Decrease

Karkaar/Dharoor Camel : low Sheep/Goat: medium

Camel: mediumSheep/goat: low

Camel: averageSheep/goat: poor

Camel : low Sh/Goat: medium

Camel: slight decreaseGoats: Decrease (No baseline)

Nugal Pastoral Camel : low Sheep/Goat: medium

Camel: mediumSheep/goat: low

Camel: averageSheep/goat: poor

Camel : low Sheep/Goat: medium

Camel: Increase (Below Baseline) Sh/goats: Increase (Below Baseline)

Sool Pastoral Camel : low Sh/Goat: low

Camel: lowSh/goat: low

Camel: poorSh/goat: poor

Camel : low Sh/Goat: medium

Camel: slight Increase (Below baseline) Sh/goats: significant decrease (Same as Baseline)

Addun Pastoral Camel : low Sh/Goat: medium

Camel: mediumSh/goat: low

Camel: averageSh/goat: poor

Camel : low Sh/Goat: medium Camel: increase (As Baseline)

Goats: Decrease (Below Baseline)

Coastal Camel : low Sh/Goat: low

Camel: lowSh/goat: low

Camel: poorSh/goat: poor

Camel : low Sh/Goat: medium Camel: Decrease

Goats: Decrease (No baseline)

LivestockLivestock Prices

ToT 1. Garowe 2. Bosasso 3. Galkayo

Jun’11 58 kg 62 kg 50 kg

Jun’10 66 kg 72 kg 46 kg

14% 8% 7%

LivestockTerms of Trade (local quality goat/ rice)

1 2

3

Slight increase in Import Commodity Prices (last six months)

Factors Affecting CommercialImport Prices:•Increased global food prices

• Increased fuel prices

•Sea closure due to monsoon winds

Trends in Imported Commodity Prices Vs Exchange Rate

Markets

Livestock Exports-Bossaso

Destitute Camps and Families in Coastal Deeh, Hawd & Sool Plateau LZs

Rahmo Camp, Beyla town, FSNAU, 2011

Kalabayr camp, FSNAU 2011 B/Beyla town, FSNAU 2011

New destitute camping in Galdogob, FSNAU, 2011

Gu 2011 Assessment PhotosPasture & livestock condition

Poor pasture Harfo N. Galkayo, FSNAU 2011

Dharoor Valley, FSNAU 2011Nugaal Valley FSNAU, 2011

Dried shallow well, Afdicin, Xaafuun, Iskushuban, FSNAU 2011

NORTHEASTNutrition Situation Estimates

Nutrition Situation Estimates,August 2011

Aggravating factors:AWD and cholera outbreak; Measles outbreak in Nugal and Bari regionsLow income and food access (low frankincense production, fishing and low milk production in Golis/Karkaar, Coastal Deeh in NEPoor infrastructure, hindering transportation of commodities, or access to humanitarian assistancePoor shelter in IDPs, high morbidity, inappropriate child feeding and care practicesPoor food access for IDPs

Mitigating factors : Humanitarian access in the Hawd in Northeast Improved coverage of health programmes (polio and Vit A) in most LZs as a result of CHDs. Active social support: limited kinship support

Nutrition Situation Estimates, April 2011

NORTHEASTSummary: Progression of Rural IPC Situation

Key IPC Reference Outcomes (Aug-Sep)Urban Population: Bari 75% P-AFLC; Mudug 100% P AFLC; Nugaal 100% P AFLC Rural population: Hawd 100% P AFLC; Addun; 25% P HE; 75% P AFLC; Karkaar100% P AFLC; East Golis100% P AFLC; Sool Plateau 25% P HE; 75%P AFLC; Coastal Deeh 75%P HE; 25% P AFLC

• Acute malnutrition: Overall Serious to Very Critical in IDPs• Food Access: Severe entitlement gap, unable to meet 2,100 Kcal ppp day• Water Access: Average of 7.5-15 ltrs ppp day ( human usage only)• Destitution/Displacement: Predominantly stable security situation with

increasing pastoral destitution in mainly Coastal Deeh and Sool Bari region

• Coping: Distress strategies and high indebtedness for food and water expenses during prolonged Jilaal season

• Livelihood Assets: Accelerated and critical depletion or loss of access

Main Contributing Factors: • Deteriorated rangeland and water conditions in Costal Deeh, East-Golis

and parts of Addun LHZs due to below average Gu ‘11 rainfall • Prolonged dry conditions leading to increased livestock asset loss

(sheep/goats) and miscarriages among camel in all livelihoods• Below average camel milk production in most livelihoods• Significant increase in local cereal prices following the crop failure in

southern Somalia• Moderate increase in imported cereal (rice) prices • Reduced terms of trade (27%): local quality goat to red sorghum

(65kg/head in Jun ’10 to 41kg/head in Jun ‘11)• Reduced fishing activities due to piracy in Coastal Deeh and Monsoon

season

MAP 1: IPC April 2011

MAP 2: IPC Gu 2011

NORTHEAST Rural Population in Crisis by livelihoods

NORTHEAST Rural Population in Crisis by District

NORTHEAST Urban Population in Crisis

DistrictUNDP 2005

Total Population

UNDP 2005 Urban

Population

Deyr 2010/11 Gu 2011

Acute Food &Livelihood

Crisis (AFLC)

Humanitarian Emergency

(HE)

Total in AFLC or

HE as % of Urban

population

Acute Food & Livelihood

Crisis (AFLC)

Humanitarian Emergency

(HE)

Total in AFLC or HE

as % of Urban

population

Bari      

Bandarbayla 14,376 5,400 2,000 0 37 2,000 0 37

Bossaso 164,906 107,181 36,000 0 34 36,000 0 34

Caluula 40,002 13,000 4,000 0 31 4,000 0 31

Iskushuban 45,027 8,508 3,000 0 35 3,000 0 35

Qandala 42,502 15,600 5,000 0 32 5,000 0 32

Qardho 60,825 29,944 10,000 0 33 10,000 0 33

Sub-Total 367,638 179,633 60,000 0 33 60,000 0 33

Nugaal      

Burtinle 34,674 8,669 4,000 0 46 4,000 0 46

Dan Gorayo 20,331 5,599 3,000 0 54 3,000 0 54

Eyl 32,345 7,086 3,000 0 42 3,000 0 42

Garoowe 57,991 33,395 15,000 0 45 15,000 0 45

Sub-Total 145,341 54,749 25,000 0 46 25,000 0 46

North Mudug      

Galdogob 40,433 7,067 2,000 0 28 2,000 0 28

Jariiban 39,207 6,341 2,000 0 32 2,000 0 32

Sub-Total 79,640 13,408 4,000 0 30 4,000 0 30

Grand Total 592,619 247,790 89,000 0 36 89,000 0 36