Food and Governance

Duncan GreenEcumenical World Development

ConferenceSwanwick

October 2012

The Challenge:

Slide back into an Age of Scarcity

Or go forward into an Age of Development?

The food system is failing

A billion hungry people 1.5 billion anaemic through iron deficiency Half a million kids go blind every year due

to lack of vitamin A

And at the same time 1.5 billion overweight adults (of which 0.5

billion obese)

Hunger rising since the mid 90s

Source: WFP

Framing: The Standard Response

Increased demand 50% by 2030 (IEA)

Energy

Water Increased demand

30% by 2030(IFPRI)

FoodIncreased demand

50% by 2030(FAO)

Climate Change

1. Can 9 billion people be fed equitably, healthily and sustainably?

2. Can we cope with the future demands on water?

3. Can we provide enough energy to supply the growing population coming out of poverty?

4. Can we mitigate and adapt to climate change?

5. Can we do all this in the context of redressing the decline in biodiversity and preserving ecosystems?Biodiversity

What’s missing from this picture?

Power: who decides? (Amartya Sen on famine)

Distribution: who benefits? Justice: what is fair? Which brings us to governance

Governance in the south: my guru

Ha-Joon Chang: lessons from 21 successful countries Need to ‘free policy imagination’ Role of the state

– Smallscale farmers are central (Vietnam)– Importance of land reform (Japan, Taiwan)– State-backed credit and insurance– Encourage organization (co-ops etc)– Stabilize prices (USA, Chile)

But delivery can be public, private or mixed (i.e. Different from industry)

To which, I would add Gender

– Gender equality would boost output by up to 10%

– land ownership (15-20% women)– Access to credit– extension services (5% aimed at women)– Reproductive health

Resilience– Adapting to climate change (rubber)– From tradition to science

The Power of Organization– Against land grabs and rip-offs– For better deals in markets (farmers want to

sell, not just grow)

Other missing pieces: Volatility and urbanization The Number of hungry people in cities is

rising. Our research (with IDS) shows– Food Price Volatility -> inequality– Having fun matters as well as eating

What do poor people need?– Jobs– Social protection (often informal)– Price stability– Women need help with extra pressure

Why Food Price Volatility matters

What about the rich countries? Production: Waste Consumption: is meat murder? Competition (biofuels, land grabs) R&D:

– Technology for whom? – Decelerating productivity growth

Aid to ag down in last 20 years from 20% to 7%

Aid and Trade

WTO lets rich countries off eg with subsidies (40 x aid)

Food security v self sufficiency– Panic buying and export bans, but what

about Yemen? Biofuels waste money and food Food aid system overstretched and clunky Policy advice often very free market

(ignoring lessons of history)

PROBLEM – more of the same, elites failing

a failing food system

disempoweringinequality

the age of crisis

planetaryboundarie

s

SOLUTION – the many working together

the new prosperity

a good food system

fair shares

valuing precious

resources