food 2040 project overview
TRANSCRIPT
Presented by: Geoffrey Wiggin Minister-‐Counselor, FAS/Tokyo
• Food 2040—Hypothesis, ObjecHve, Outcomes
• Technology Convergence—Consumer of the Future
• Vision of Future State Requirements
• The Research
• Moving Ahead/ Wrap-‐Up
Discussion Guide
Global wealth creaHon will drive the emergence of affluent consumers who will demand func%onal foods that align with their health and wellness lifestyle strategies.
Hypothesis
Food 2040 will provide decision-‐makers a catalyst to define a shared understanding of the infinite opportuni%es that will arise in the food system due to the convergence of mulHple interacHng factors.
ObjecHve
Food 2040 stakeholders will put research results to work in framing and acHvaHng acHon plans that incorporate this new vision and will begin to define how they will benefit from the next quantum leap in food.
Outcomes
• Who will meet the needs of this future consumer and profit from new opportuniHes?
• How will our food producHon system evolve to meet these needs?
• How should our global regulatory policy systems transform to meet these needs?
Who will benefit from the next quantum leap in food?
Technology Convergence— Consumer of the Future
Consumer Driven
Next GeneraHon Biotechnology
Cultured Foods
Nanotechnology Nutrigenomics
Technology Convergence— Consumer of the Future
Today
Future Commodity-‐based system
Identity-preserved system
Vision of Future State Requirements
Today
Future Few large commercial
global registrants of biotech transgenic events
600+ firms seeking to register transgenic and novel technology events
Vision of Future State Requirements
Today
Future Integrated medical, food and
genomics models that are infinite and evolve exponentially
Compartmentalized nutriHon and wellness model
Vision of Future State Requirements
Today
Future AnHquated transportaHon
systems A highly sophisticated modern transportation and infrastructure system
Vision of Future State Requirements
Today
Future Middle class development
focused on caloric increase
Middle class with means to be increasingly discerning about food choices
Vision of Future State Requirements
The future is about the global caloric needs required to feed 9 billion people and planning for macro protein and energy demands
The more compelling opportunity for food system stakeholders to expand margins may be by targeHng exciHng new consumer-‐driven idenHty-‐preserved markets
Vision of Future State Requirements
Research Process and Methodology
• Biotech acceleraHon • Cheap genomics • Specialty GM crops • Biosensors • High-‐intensity agriculture • AutomaHc agriculture • Biopharming
Food and Technology—Biotech and Agricultural InnovaHon
Research Theme 1
Consumer Trends—Upper and Middle Class Asia
• Middle class growth • UrbanizaHon • Gray Asia • Changing diets • Diseases of affluence
Research Theme 2
CompeHHve and Policy/Regulatory Landscape—Evolving Issues and Standards
Research Theme 3
• Chinese wages rising • Regulatory capacity • China ascending the food value chain • CounterfeiHng, adulteraHon, and
intellectual property • Asian credit crises • Rising transparency • Asian freight infrastructure
• Infrastructure build-‐out • Rising volumes • Energy costs • IdenHfy preservaHon and traceability • Shiaing product mixes • Smart packaging
Agriculture Food DistribuHon and Packaging—TransportaHon and Infrastructure
Research Theme 4
Environment and Resources— Impacts of Global Growth
Research Theme 5
• Water scarcity • Soil depleHon • Scarce ferHlizer • China’s shrinking farmland • Global fishery depleHon • Food insecurity
Thank You