fobawi biomass transportation presentation...
TRANSCRIPT
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FREIGHTPOLICYTRANSPORTATIONINSTITUTE
Transportation Economics andBio-Mass Transportation
Eric Jessup
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TRANSPORTATION ECONOMICSANDBIO-MASS TRANSPORTATION
Eric Jessup
Associate Professor
School of Economic Sciences
April 27, 2010
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The road ahead…..
Why Does Transportation Matter ?
Transportation Economic Fundamentals
Bio-Fuels: The Story of Ethanol in the U.S.
Open Discussion / Dialogue
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Overarching Themes
Transportation Matters……..a great deal! It always has…… It always will…….
Especially when considering policies on: Food Agriculture Energy Environment Everything else……
Issues are often quite complicated
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Why is Transportation Important?
Affects practically all aspects of your life? Where you live What you eat What you buy What you sell
Transportation creates time and place utility
Creation of markets……..and value that otherwise wouldn’t exist
This isn’t a recent phenomenon
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Two Examples of Markets Created
Hay to Asia
Dell Computers Prior to 1996, computers were assembled similar to other
manufacturing processes
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Pre-1996 Dell Supply Chain
DistributionCenter Supplier
Customer
Supplier ManufacturingSite
DistributionCenter
Supplier
Customer
Customer
Customer
Customer
Customer
Customer
Carrier
Carrier
Carrier
Carrier
Carrier
Carrier
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Net Effect
•Orders are made online
•Components are provided from supplier “Just-in-Time”
•Inventory of parts reduced:• 75-100 days of inventory• Down to 6 – 7 days of inventory
•From time of order, computers are assembled, software loaded, tested and delivered around 36 hours
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After 1996 Dell Supply Chain
DistributionCenter Supplier
Customer
Supplier ManufacturingSite
DistributionCenter
Supplier
Customer
Customer
Customer
Customer
Customer
Customer
Carrier
Carrier
Carrier
Carrier
Carrier
Carrier X
X X
X
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Transportation Influences…..
Product Physical characteristics
Pricing
Supply Markets
Target Markets
Facility Location
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Factors InfluencingTransportation Costs
Product-Related
Density Refers to a products weight-to-volume ratio.
Stowability The degree to which a product can utilize available space in transport
vehicle.
Handling Ease Uniform sizes or odd shapes.
Liability Important for products with high value-to-weight ratios.
Perishability Degree to which the product may be damaged in transit.
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Factors InfluencingTransportation Costs
Market-Related
Degree of Intra- and Inter-Modal competition
Location of Markets Distance goods must be transported
Government Regulation
Seasonality
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Distance-Transportation Costs Relationships
D
Length of Haul0
B
Tc
Tran
spor
tatio
n C
ost P
er U
nit
A
C
TB
TA
TD
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Transportation Cost SurfaceAssuming Linear Costs
Length of Haul
0
Isocost Contours
D2
T2
T3
T4
T1
D3 D4D1
Market Center
Transportation Cost Function
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Transportation Cost SurfaceAssuming Increasing Costs at a Decreasing Rate
Length of Haul
0
Isocost Contours
D2
T2
T3
T4
T1
D3 D4D1
Market Center
Transportation Cost Function
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Mode Comparison by Economics
Economic Characteristic Truck Rail Air Water
Cost Moderate Low High LowMarket Coverage Point-to-point Terminal-to-
terminalTerminal-to-
terminalTerminal-to-
terminalDegree of Competition
Many Few Moderate Few
Traffic TypeAll types Low to moderate
value, relatively high density
High value, relatively low
density
Low value, High density
Length of Haul Short to long Medium to long Medium to long Medium to long
Capacity (tons) 10-25 50-12,000 5-125 1,000-60,000
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Mode Comparison by Service
Service Characteristics Truck Rail Air Water
Speed Moderate-Fast Slower Fast Slow
Availability High Moderate Moderate Low
Consistency (delivery time)
High Moderate Moderate Low
Loss and damage
Low Moderate Low Low
Flexibility High Low Low Low
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Freight Mode Comparison
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Energy Use Per Freight Mode
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
BTU
/ T
onm
ile
Rail Barge Truck
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Agricultural Supply Chain
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Biomass Supply Chain
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Alternative Mode Cost Relationships
Optimal Transport
Length of Haul0
Large
Tran
spor
tatio
n C
ost P
er U
nit
Zone2
Zone3
Zone4
Zone1
SmallMedium
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What Happened with Ethanol in the U.S.?
Rising conventional fossil fuel prices
Too dependent on foreign oil sources
If Brazil can do it…….we can too!
Let’s grow our way out of this energy problem!!
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U.S. Ethanol Production
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
Mill
ion
Gal
lons
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Total Number of Ethanol PlantsNew Plants Under Construction
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10
Nub
er o
f Pl
ants
Plants Under Construction Total Plants
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RFS Mandated BioFuel Schedule(Billion Gallons)
Source: National Commission on Energy Policy’s Task Force on Biofuels and Infrastructure, 2008
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Total Tonnage Moving at R/VC above 300%
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Ethanol Challenges
Grew too fast, too soon………over expansion
Ethanol Plants that are long distances from source, will face competitive disadvantages
Cost Risk Dealing with the Railroad
Many of the smaller plants may struggle due to lack of economies of scale
Food vs. Fuel?
Doesn’t score well from environmentalist (LCA) perspective
May be an important part of the solution, but certainly not the total Energy solution
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Other Bio-Fuels?
Switchgrass Canola Forest Residue Municipal Waste Animal Waste Others…….
Many Difficult Questions
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Such as:
Where to put a plant? Economically viable Water Availability Consistent low-cost supply Proximity to feedstock supply and fuel demand markets Access to transportation
How big should it be?
Conversion technology?
By-Products?
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Processing Versus Transportation Costs
Total Costs
Total Costs ($/gallon)
Processing Costs
Transportation Costs
Plant Processing Capacity (million gallons/year)
Optimal PlantSize
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Site Identification
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Bio-Mass Availability and Collection Cost:Forest Biomass and Ag. Residue
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360 390 420
Feedstock Transportation Distances (miles)
Etha
nol P
roce
ssin
g (M
GY
)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Feed
stoc
k Tr
ansp
orta
tion
Cos
ts ($
/ton)
Longview Ferndale Ellensburg Spokane Feedstock Transportaton Costs ($/ton)
Spokane
Ellensburg
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Vancouver/Longview Plant
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The energy road ahead……
Competition between two paths
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What will the energy ofthe future look like?
Some behavioral changes are likely to occur
Multiple feed stock sources that allows for regional specialization
Regional bio-fuel plants that generate electricity and supply the grid that then supplies our automobiles
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Questions?
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Discussion Questions:
Why hasn’t the U.S.’s reliance on fuel not declined, (in terms of consumption per capita)?
If fuel is more expensive, why not just ship everything on more efficient modes such as railroads?
Why don’t we have better passenger rail service in the U.S.? (High speed rail projects)