fo c electric rail car decisions capacity
DESCRIPTION
Caltrain ridership growth, capacity challenges and opportunitiesTRANSCRIPT
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Caltrain Ridership, Capacity, and Electric Rail Car Design Decisions
Friends of CaltrainAdina LevinSeptember 2014
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Topics
1) Ridership and Capacity2) Level Boarding3) Transbay4) Platform Compatibility5) Space on cars (standing room, bicycles,
bathrooms)
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Caltrain “success disaster” - Long-term ridership growth
Dot.Com Bust
Baby Bullet Launch
Financial crash & recession
Second bike car
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Trends - car-light culture
● Today’s workers prefer less driving...○ 40% of Caltrain riders don’t own a car or don’t drive○ Only 24% drive to station and park○ 17% use a bicycle for first/last mile
● ...fostered by transportation incentives and policies○ 42% of Stanford employees drive to work, down
from 72% a decade ago, following Santa Clara County trip cap and Stanford TDM program
○ 50% of Bay Meadows residents prefer to take the train in major City of San Mateo Transit-Oriented Development with transit incentives
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Trends - transit corridor growthPlan Bay Area - Priority Development Areas focused on transit corridors Regional goal:
accommodate 80% of housing, 60% of job growth in < 5% of land w/transit access
Price premium for offices, homes near Caltrain
National trend: growth, demand in walkable transit-served areas
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How much future ridership growth?
San Francisco expects Ridership to increase 3x by 2040
San Jose Expects Ridership to increase 5x by 2035
Caltrain expects ridership to increase less than 2x by 2040
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How much future ridership growth?
Caltrain Electrification Forecast
Continued Growth Trend?
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Why Level Boarding? Faster.
Credit: Clem TIllier
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Peak period growth and crowding
Train can seat 650 passengersHigh season trains carry over 900Peak and reverse peak crowding
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Crowding is concentrated in peak period, faster trains
Baby Bullet
Limited
Local
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Why level boarding? Smoother.
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Smooth schedule challenges with High Speed Rail blending
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Ridership driven by Downtown Extension to Transbay Terminal
Credit: Clem TIllier
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Service to Transbay
2 Caltrain trains to Transbay, in Caltrain electrification environmental impact report
6 Caltrain trains in blended system plan
10 Caltrain+HSR trains in blended system plan
16?? Maximum per preliminary engineering analysis???
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Keeping up with capacity
SF Central Subway
SF - Downtown Extension to Transbay
SJ - BART to Diridon Station
HSR - 2029+
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How to keep up with demand growth
Passengers per peak hour
Today 5 cars seated 3,250
Standing room 5 cars w/standees 4,225
6 car trains 6 cars x 5tph 5,070
Electrification 6 cars x 6tph 6,084
8 car trains 8 cars x 6tph 7,301
Increase freq. 8 cars x 8tph 9,710
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Timeline
2016 - Positive Train Control2019 - Caltrain Electrification2019 - Central Subway202x - Longer platforms at major stations202x - BART to Diridon202x - Downtown Extension to Transbay - drives demand for more frequent service~2029 - High Speed Rail
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Credits
Clem Tillier - Caltrain High Speed Rail Compatibility BlogGoogle - contributed to capacity analysis