flourishing in an age of disruption
TRANSCRIPT
Flourishing in an Age of Disruption Åre Capital Market Day
Anna Pollock, Founder, Conscious Travel April 7th, 2016
•The Nature of Disruption•How to ensure success•5 pathways to Flourishing
Scope TodayScope Today
CONNECTIVITY
INFORMATION and COMPLEXITY
7 billion Mobile phones
3 billion web users
1 billion web sites
100 million blogsTumbler.com alone
7 billion people
9 billion people
The Challenge of Connectivity
1.5 billion Facebook users
More Complexity = More Uncertainty
Most damage comes from from what you cannot see!
If the Future were an iceberg, what should you pay attention to?
TRENDS Fixable Problems• Y2K• HIV/Aids• Ebola Virus• Ozone Layer• Flooding• Decline in visitors• Congestion
• China outbound
• Millennials• The Sharing
Economy• Athletic Events
& Challenges• Social Good• Luxury
TRENDS
DRIVERS
Change Drivers• Climate Change• Wealth disparity• Resource scarcity• Global connectivity• Transparency • Democratization of
everything• Changing Values• All sorts of technology
These are all “WICKED problems”
Business as Usual IS unsustainable
10 mega forces
All connected
“Population growth,exploitation of naturalresources, climate
changeand other factors areputting the world on adevelopment trajectorythat is not sustainable…ifwe fail to alter ourpatterns of productionand consumption, thingswill begin to go badlywrong”
Systemic breakdowns are breakdowns that occur in an entire system, as opposed to breakdowns in individual parts and components.
Challenges are systemic, structural & interconnected
Impact of Systemic Risk
Systemic risks are endemic everywhere – in supply chains, pandemics, infrastructure, ecology, and climate change, economics and politics.
Unless we are better able to address these concerns, they will lead to greater protectionism, xenophobia, nationalism, and, inevitably, deglobalization, rising conflict and slower growth.
TRENDS
DRIVERS
DEEPER TECTONIC FORCES
Tectonic Forces• Affect the entire
human species
• Expressed as universal dynamics/patterns
• Involve deep questioning
• How do we respond?
The world we have created is a product of our thinking; it cannot be changed without changing our thinking.
No problem can be solved with the same consciousness that created it.
We must learn to see the world anew.
Need to change our minds, our mindsets
“We have one generation in which to shift human consciousness”
Jeremy Rifkin
Coping with systemic risk and disruption
Behaving
Being
Seeing
Action
Values
Perception
How do you spot a tectonic shift?
Look for simple, universal patterns
THE DOMINANT PATTERN
4 - 4.5% CAGR
1.2 billion international trips in 2013
What will doubling tourism in 17 years look and feel like?
What kind of leadership will be needed to manage that growth and impact?
International Tourism Arrivals
THE GREAT UNRAVELLING
Assessing tourism’s global impact 1990-2010Stefan Gossling and Paul PetersJournal of Sustainable Tourism, 2015Vol23, No 5, 639-659
Waking Up to the Real Nature of Change The Promise The Reality
Dr. Butler’s TALC modelSigmoid Curve
This is where we are at as a species
Decaying Old System
Emerging New System
Disruptive Questions: Who am I?How do I see my world?How do I relate to other life forms?Why am I here?
What Does All This Have to Do with
If you want to survive, harness the change drivers
If you want to flourish, jump curves and harness the tectonic forces!
5 curve leaping moves!
1. Change your PURPOSEIncreased
GROWTH as in MORE volume
Increased NET BENEFIT as in
BETTER value
Aim for People and Place to FLOURISHHosts – Guests – Host Businesses – Residents – Host Community – Your Descendants
Indicators from Positive Psychology (People) & Ecology (systems, enterprises & places) to trackLong-term NET BENEFIT – HEALTH/VITALITY – RESILIENCE - PASSIONATE/ENGAGED – BALANCE –
SELF ORGANZING – SELF GENERATING
2. Practice a new way of SEEING, together
old new
Industry – machine- separate parts – hierarchy – command & control - me –scarcity - competition
Living ecosystem – community – interdependent relationships – self organizing network - we – collaborate
HOW DO YOU SEE PLANET EARTH?
OLD
Floating real estate to be:
• Exploited• Developed• Fixed• Scarce• Worth
competing for
NEW
Living organism Community of self-organising elements to be:
• Revered• Life Support• Teacher• Mother• Capacity for
abundance• Collaborativ
e
Re-imagine, Re-member our Relationship with Nature
“Nature” is NOT a market segment Nor a problem to be
solved
The clearest way into the Universe is through a forest
(John Muir)
Nor even a set of services
to be paid for
“I only went out for short walk but stayed till dark, for going out I found I was really
going in”
There is no wifi in the forest but I promise you will find a
better connection there.
Natural Opportunities
3. Grow Profit by being a PLACE that CARES about THE NEEDS OF THEIR EMPLOYEES, AND …
Suppliers Community
AND THE NEEDS OF ALL THEIR STAKEHOLDERS
3. Grow Profit by Growing Your PEOPLE
4. Unleash the Power of PlaceWe cannot know who we are, until we know where we are.Wendell Berry
4. Unleash the Power of PlaceThere are no unsacred placesThere are only sacred places
And desecrated placesWendell Berry
When we see land as a community to which we belong, we may begin
to use it with love and respectAldo Leopold
This is NOT about BRANDING! It IS about becoming INDIGENOUS.
5. Step Up to Lead as Hosts
“The leaders we need today are not heroes who command but hosts who convene” Margaret Wheatley
New and exciting forms of leadership and collaboration thatEnable innovation to emerge will need to be learned and practiced.
PEAK PLACES are places where • All life flourishes; tourism is the means not the end• There’s a distinct, feeling, character, “spirit” and personality• Hosts are in love with their home and look after it with a shared
passion• Guests experience an authentic welcome that inspires and
transforms• Hosts help each other and collaborate to create sustained livelihoods• Visitors generate sustained net benefits to the community as a whole• Where the community determines direction, pace and type of
tourism that is right for them.
Conscious Travel Pathways
Thank you and good luckAnna Pollock, Founder, Conscious Travel
For more please [email protected]
www.conscious.travel