floods, climate and “cuisinart” hydrology: a recipe for disaster?
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Floods, Climate and “Cuisinart” Hydrology: A Recipe for Disaster?. ?. Dr. Katie Hirschboeck Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research & Chair, Global Change Graduate Interdisciplinary Program. QUESTIONS, QUESTIONS!. WHAT IS A FLOOD? . . . and what is a 100-Year Flood? - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Floods, Climate and “Cuisinart” Hydrology:
A Recipe for Disaster?Dr. Katie Hirschboeck
Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research& Chair, Global ChangeGraduate Interdisciplinary Program
?
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1.WHAT IS A FLOOD? . . . and what is a 100-Year Flood?
2.WHY DO WE NEED TO WORRY ABOUT THEM? . . . our Arizona rivers are dry most of the time!
3.WHAT CAUSES FLOODS ?. . . and what difference does this make?
4.WHAT CAN WE LEARN FROM THE PAST? . . . Are there such things as
“Paleofloods”?5.WHAT WILL THE FUTURE HOLD?
. . . will climate change make floods more extreme? or will they get smaller?
QUESTIONS, QUESTIONS!
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. . . and what the heck is
“CUISINART” HYDROLOGY
????
?
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WHAT IS A FLOOD?
Definition: “Any relatively high streamflow that overtops the natural or artificial
banks of a river”
Flooding on the Santa Cruz RiverWhat about steep-sided arroyo channels? These banks aren’t overtopped!
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Another: “An overflowing of water onto land that is normally dry”
WHAT IS A FLOOD?
SOURCE: David Rankin video, posted at Flood Control District of Maricopa County
http://www.fcd.maricopa.gov/Education/education.aspx
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Yet another: “The state of a river that is at an
abnormally high level”
WHAT IS A FLOOD?
The record flood of
October 1983!
vs.
The typically dry Santa Cruz River at very low flow
Santa Cruz River at Tucson, Arizona
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A rapid rise in flood level during the January 2010
flooding in Arizona
Taking a discharge
measurement during a flood
Automatic gagingstation
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Example of an even more rapid
rise in flood stage during the
January 2010 flooding in
ArizonaPhotos show low flow in Verde River near Clarkdale
during July 2009
streamflow gage
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Why do we need to worry about floods in Arizona when our rivers are dry most of the time? . . . WATCH THIS!
SOURCE: David Rankin video, posted at Flood Control District of Maricopa County
http://www.fcd.maricopa.gov/Education/education.aspx
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Why do we need to worry about floods in Arizona when our rivers are dry most of the time? . . . and this too!
SOURCE: David Rankin video, posted at Flood Control District of Maricopa County
http://www.fcd.maricopa.gov/Education/education.aspx
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WATER YEAR
DIS
CH
AR
GE
(cu
bic
feet
per
seco
nd)
Annual FloodTime Series
Largest peak in each year
More Definitions: “The ANNUAL FLOOD for a given
stream is the highest flow recorded at a point on a stream during any particular calendar year or water
year.”
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SOURCE: Pima County Regional Flood Control District
http://rfcd.pima.gov
Def: “The 100-YEAR FLOOD is a flood event that statistically has a 1 out of 100 (or one percent) chance of being equaled
or exceeded on a specific watercourse in any given year.”
SO WHAT IS A 100-YEAR FLOOD?
Flood Insurance Rate Maps are based on the 100-Year
Floodplain ( the area that will be inundated
by a 100-Year Flood)
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DO WE NEED 100 YEARS OF FLOOD RECORDS TO ESTIMATE IT?
SOURCE: modified from Jarrett, 1991 after Patton & Baker, 1977
Nope, the 100-Year Flood is estimated statistically from
the available record:!
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. . . but sometime
s there are
problems due to
“outliers”
SOURCE: modified from Jarrett, 1991, after Patton & Baker, 1977
Pecos River nr Comstock,
TX
Is this a recipefor
disaster?
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Flow Time Series
The gage was shut downin 1980
A fairly long record with lots of variability . . . .
Flow Time Series
The flood of October 1983!
(WY 1984)
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WHAT CAUSES FLOODS ?. . . and what difference does this make?
Seasonality of Peak Flooding
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Meteorological & climatological flood-producing
mechanisms operate at
varying temporal and spatial scales
FLOOD-CAUSING MECHANISMS
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Roosevelt Dam Jan 1993
Winter flooding on the Rillito in Tucson
Schematic showing 3 modes of westerly flow. FLOODING & EL NINO are more likely to be
associated with the Meridional Jet
or Split Jetpattern
WINTER & SPRING FRONTAL ACTIVITY
Canada del Oro flooding of La Cholla Road Jan 2008
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SUMMER CONVECTIVE “Monsoon”THUNDERSTORMS
Sabino Canyon flooding July 1999
Typical urban flash flooding in Arizona
Rillito July 2006
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IMPORTANT FLOOD-GENERATING TROPICAL STORMS
Tropical Storm Octave Oct 1983
ENHANCED PRECIPITATIONFROM EASTERNNORTH PACIFIC
TROPICAL STORMS
Tropical Storm Heather Oct 1977
Tropical Storm Norma & the Labor Day flood
of Sep 1970
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SO HOW DO WE ADDRESS
FLOOD HAZARDS?
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http://acwi.gov/hydrology/Frequency/B17bFAQ.html#mixed
“Flood magnitudes are determined by many factors, in unpredictable combinations.
It is conceptually useful to think of the various factors as "populations" and to think of each year's flood as being the result of random selection of a "population”, followed by random drawing of a particular flood magnitude from the selected population.”
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“ iid ” assumption: independently, identically distributed
The standard approach to
Flood Frequency Analysis (FFA)
assumes stationarity in the time series &
“iid”
The Standard iid Assumption for FFA
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The type of storm influences the shape
of the streamflow hydrograph
and the magnitude & persistence of the
flood peak
Different storm types produce different flood hydrographs:
Summer monsoon convective event
Synoptic-scale winter event
Tropical storm or other extreme event
Time
Dis
charg
e
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It all started with a newspaper ad . . . .
CLIMATIC CAUSE + FLOODS =
NEW & USEFUL INFORMATION FOR EVALUTING FLOOD RISK!
Therefore:
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“FLOOD PROCESSOR”
With expanded feed tube – for entering all kinds of flood data
including steel chopping, slicing & grating blades
– for removing unique physical characteristics, climatic information, and outliers
plus plastic mixing blade – to mix the populations together
Current practice analyzes floods using
“CUISINART”HYDROLOGY!
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Alternative Conceptual Framework:
Time-varying means
Time-varying variances
Both
SOURCE: Hirschboeck, 1988
Mixed frequency distributions may arise from:
• storm types
• synoptic patterns
• ENSO, etc. teleconnections
• multi-decadal circulation regimes
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Remember the Santa Cruz record?
What does it look like when classified hydroclimatically?
What kinds of storms produced the biggest floods?
Can we find out more about what drives this history of flooding?
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FLOOD HYDROCLIMATOLOGY = classifying each flood in the record according to cause
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Historical Flood
Many more winter floods!
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FLOOD HYDROCLIMATOLOGY
is the analysis of flood events within the context of their history of variation
- in magnitude, frequency, seasonality
- over a relatively long period of time
- analyzed within the spatial framework of changing combinations of meteorological causative mechanisms
SOURCE: Hirschboeck, 1988
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This framework of analysis allows a flood time series to be combined with climatic information . . .
To arrive at a mechanistic understanding of long-term flooding variability and the likelihood of different types of floods occurring.
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WHAT CAN WE LEARN FROM LARGE FLOODS OF THE PAST?
Datable flood deposits layers show how many larger floods occurred here
Here’s evidence that a large flood moved this huge boulder to this height on the
floodplain:
Scar on tree from flood damage
can be dated with tree-ring analysis;
also reveals the height of the floodwaters
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Paleoflood stage
Non-exceedence level
Threshold level
PALEOFLOOD RESEARCH!
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Historical FloodLargest paleoflood
(A.D. 1010 +- 95 radiocarbon date)
1993
FLOOD HYDROCLIMATOLOGY evaluate likely hydroclimatic causes of pre-
historic floods
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Compilations of paleoflood records combined with gaged records suggest there could be a natural, upper physical limit to the magnitude of floods in a given region
--- will this change if the climate changes?
Envelope curve for
Arizona peak flows
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CLASS ACTIVTY !
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CONTROLS OF FLOOD HYDROGRAPH CHARACTERISTICS
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WHAT WILL THE FUTURE HOLD?
. . . will climatic change
make floods more extreme?
or will they get smaller?
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Some Important Flood-Generating Tropical Storms
Tropical storm Octave Oct 1983
(2) A Change in Frequency or Intensity of Tropical Storms?
(1) A Northward Shift in Winter Storm Track?
Roosevelt Dam Jan 1993 Winter flooding
on Rillito in Tucson
(3) A More Intense Summer Monsoon?
Sabino Creek July 2006
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Is this evidence of climate change?
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Extreme events have a legacy of confounding us!
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LOOKING AT FLOODS NATIONALLY & GLOBALLY
after Costa (1985)
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Extreme Floods of Record evolved from:
• uncommon (or unseasonable) locations of typical circulation features (a future manifestation of climate change?)
• unusual combinations of atmospheric processes
• rare configurations in circulation patterns (e.g. extreme blocking)
• exceptional persistence of a specific circulation pattern.
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http://floodobservatory.colorado.edu/Archives/GlobalArchiveMap.swfhttp://floodobservatory.colorado.edu/archiveatlas/floodrecurrence.htm
http://floodobservatory.colorado.edu/index.html
THE GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE!
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Causes
Severity> 100 yr
> 20 yr
# Floods per YearComparable between
1985-1995 & 1998 - 2003
Flood Causes
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SUMMARY
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Hydroclimatic Regions
-- Rivers can be grouped according to how their floods respond to different types of mechanisms and circulation patterns.
-- This grouping may change from season to season and might possibly rearrange itself due to climate change and shifting storm tracks.
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A Mixture of Flood Causes:
Data from key flood subgroups could be better for estimating the probability and type of extremely rare floods than a single “100-Year Flood” calculated from all the flood data combined!
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Climatic change affects floods through time-varying atmospheric circulation patterns
Different weather and climate patterns (e.g., Tropical Storms, El Niño, La Niña) generate a mixture of shifting streamflow probabilities over time.
Flood Hydroclimatology provides a way to evaluate future extreme flooding scenarios in terms of shifting frequencies of known flood-producing synoptic patterns, ENSO, etc.
Projecting How Floods May Vary Under A Changing Climate
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. . . ONE MORE FLOOD An urban flooding event!
SOURCE: Pima Country Regional Flood Control District
http://rfcd.pima.gov/outreach/hank/
Near Silvercroft Neighborhood In Tucson AZ(East of Silverbell Rd, South of Grant Rd & North of Speedway)