FLOODING FROM THE RED RIVER THREATENS THE FARGO, NORTH DAKOTA

AREA AGAIN

RECORD- TO NEAR-RECORD FLOOD LEVELS THREE YEARS IN A ROW

SUNDAY, APRIL 9, 2011

Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, University of

North Carolina, USA

COMMUNITYCOMMUNITYCOMMUNITYCOMMUNITYDATA BASES DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATIONDATA BASES DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATION

HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS

•HAZARD MAPS•INVENTORY•VULNERABILITY•LOCATION

RISK ASSESSMENTRISK ASSESSMENT

RISK

ACCEPTABLE RISK

UNACCEPTABLE RISK

FLOOD DISASTER RISK FLOOD DISASTER RISK REDUCTIONREDUCTION

•PREVENTION/MITIGATION•PREPAREDNESS•EMERGENCY RESPONSE•RECOVERY and RECONSTRUCTION

POLICY OPTIONSPOLICY OPTIONS

FARGO, NORTH DAKOTA: 2011

National Guards walk the levee protecting Fargo from the rising Red River, which reached 39 feet on April 9th, short of the 2009 record

RISK ASSESSMENT: FLOODING FROM RED RIVER: APRIL-MAY 2011

RISK ASSESSMENT: FLOODING FROM RED RIVER: APRIL-MAY 2011

• WHEN, WHERE, AND WHY WILL THE FLOODING OCCUR?

• HOW HIGH IS THE RIVER’S FLOOD STAGE?

• WHAT IS AT RISK?• VULNERABILITIES?• EXPECTED DAMAGE?• EXPECTED SOCIO-

ECONOMIC IMPACTS?

• WHEN, WHERE, AND WHY WILL THE FLOODING OCCUR?

• HOW HIGH IS THE RIVER’S FLOOD STAGE?

• WHAT IS AT RISK?• VULNERABILITIES?• EXPECTED DAMAGE?• EXPECTED SOCIO-

ECONOMIC IMPACTS?

LOSS OF FUNCTION OF STRUCTURES IN FLOODPLAIN

FLOODSFLOODS

INUNDATION

INTERACTION WITH HAZARDOUS MATERIALS

STRUCTURAL/CONTENTS DAMAGE FROM WATER

WATER BORNE DISEASES (HEALTH PROBLEMS)

EROSION AND MUDFLOWS

CONTAMINATION OF GROUND WATER

CAUSES OF RISK

CAUSES OF RISK

CASE HISTORIESCASE HISTORIES

EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR FLOOD RISK REDUCTION

EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR FLOOD RISK REDUCTION

• REAL TIME WEATHER FORCASTING AND WARNING SYSTEMS

• MEASURMENT TECHNOLOGIES (E.G., STREAM GAGUES)

• RISK MODELING (E.G., HAZUS, INSURANCE UNDERWRITING)

• REAL TIME WEATHER FORCASTING AND WARNING SYSTEMS

• MEASURMENT TECHNOLOGIES (E.G., STREAM GAGUES)

• RISK MODELING (E.G., HAZUS, INSURANCE UNDERWRITING)

• DATABASES • MAPS: 100-YEAR AND

500-YEAR FLOODS• FLOOD DISASTER

SCENARIOS• DRONE PLANES• HAZMAT

MANAGEMENT

• DATABASES • MAPS: 100-YEAR AND

500-YEAR FLOODS• FLOOD DISASTER

SCENARIOS• DRONE PLANES• HAZMAT

MANAGEMENT

NATURAL HAZARDS FOR WHICH NATURAL HAZARDS FOR WHICH EVACUATION IS TYPICALEVACUATION IS TYPICAL

NATURAL HAZARDS FOR WHICH NATURAL HAZARDS FOR WHICH EVACUATION IS TYPICALEVACUATION IS TYPICAL

FLOODS

HURRICANES

TYPHOONS

TSUNAMIS

VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS

WILDFIRES

HIGH BENEFIT/COST FOR SAVING LIVES, BUT LOW BEMEFIT/COST FOR PROTECTING PROPERTY

HIGH BENEFIT/COST FOR SAVING LIVES, BUT LOW BEMEFIT/COST FOR PROTECTING PROPERTY

GOAL: MOVE PEOPLE OUT GOAL: MOVE PEOPLE OUT OF HARM’S WAYOF HARM’S WAY

GOAL: MOVE PEOPLE OUT GOAL: MOVE PEOPLE OUT OF HARM’S WAYOF HARM’S WAY

LEARNING FROM THE PAST

PREPARATION WAS DIFFERENT IN 2011

• Both Fargo and neighboring Moorhead, MN., with a combined population of nearly 200,000, now have permanent and temporary dikes and levees reaching to at least 41 feet.

PREPARATION WAS DIFFERENT IN 2011

• The cities placed more than a million sandbags in advance.

• National Guard members were assigned to patrol all the flood defenses, augmented by un-manned drones.

PREPARATION WAS DIFFERENT IN 2011

• Fargo and Moorhead had reduced their vulnerability to floods by buying out homes in flood-prone areas, and purchasing miles of quick-install diking systems.

A BRIEF LOOK AT THE RECORD FLOODING OF

2009

LOOKING BACK

• The record flood of 2009 forced thousands to evacuate, inundated about 100 homes and caused an estimated $100 million in damage as the river crested at 40.84 feet.

• In 2010, the river crested at 36.99 feet, the sixth-highest crest on record

RECORD FLOODING THEN AND NOW WAS CAUSED BY

RAPID MELT OF A HEAVY SNOW PACK

MARCH 28-30, 2009