flood forecasting in the republic of macedonia training workshop on flood risk assessment september...
TRANSCRIPT
FLOOD FORECASTING IN THEREPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA
TRAINING WORKSHOP ON FLOOD RISK ASSESSMENTSeptember 27 – October 1 2010, Istanbul, TURKEY
FLOOD FORECASTING IN THEREPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA
Vasko STOJOV
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL SERVICE – MACEDONIA
...Since absolute flood protectionis almost impossible,flood forecasting is the only chance to avoid catastrophe.
Introduction
• LOCATION
Relief-Map
Climatic conditions
- In the higher regions of the country exist mountainous climate with various subtypes;
- In the other parts is changing from continental to variable continental;
- In the river Vardar valley and in the lower parts of some tributaries exist Sub-Mediterranean climate.
Map of the main catchments
• Aegean See 1,2,4,5
• Adriatic See 3• Black See 6
Hydrographical Map
Hydro-net
Most flooded area
Flood Forecasting Activities
• Collection and processing of Hydrometeorological data• Analysing meteorological products;• Receiving Weather Forecast;• Analysing hydrological data;• Water Forecast;• Hydrological Information and Alarming.
Flood Forecasting Activities
• Collection and processing of Hydrometeorological data• Analysing meteorological products;• Receiving Weather Forecast;• Analysing hydrological data;• Water Forecast;• Hydrological Information and Alarming.
Collection and processing of
• Meteorological data;
• Hydrological data;
Analysing meteorological products
• Satellite Maps-EUMETSAT;• Internet Maps-Wetterzentrale;-Meteo Blue;
• NMM Maps;-temperature;-air pressure;-precipitation;-wind direction;-cloud cover• Forecast Meteograms.
Receiving weather forecast and alarming
Hydrological Analysing
• Hydrological Data;
Flood forecasting of the upper catchment of the r.Vardar
Hydrological StationInfo Hydrological Station
Rain Gauge Station
Graph-analytical method forFlood Forecasting
Rain
No.River and
Hydrological Station
Gostivar Tetovo Jazinci Kicevo M.Brod Zdunje Skopje
70 40 70.5 43.5 3.8 10 39 x
x1 x2 x3 x4 x5 x6 x7 mm
0.45 0.41 0.14 - - - -
32 16 10 - - - - 58
- - - 0.43 0.36 0.21 -
- - - 19 1 2 - 22
- - 1 - - - -
- - 70.5 - - - - 70.5
0.14 0.14 0.225 0.15 0.12 0.145 0.08
10 6 16 7 0 1 3 43
ESTIMATION OF AVERAGE RAIN VALUE FOR CATCHMENT OF THE R.VARDAR AT SKOPJE
Rain Gauge Stations
1Vardar Radusa
4 Vardar Skopje
2Treska Zdunje
3Lepenec
Lepenec Vliv
• Estimation of average precipitation for relevant catchments;
Graph-analytical method
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
-120 -100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0
-160
-140
-120
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
006.05.05 00:00 07.05.05 00:00 08.05.05 00:00 09.05.05 00:00
43
6080
20
Q (m3/s)
Qo (m3/s)
H (cm)
120 100 80 60 40 20
T (days)
40
Graph-analytical method
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
-120 -100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0
-160
-140
-120
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
006.05.05 00:00 07.05.05 00:00 08.05.05 00:00 09.05.05 00:00
43
6080
20
Q (m3/s)
Qo (m3/s)
H (cm)
120 100 80 60 40 20
T (days)
40
Hydrological Information and Alarming
• Crisis Management Centre• Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and
Water Management• Ministry of Ecology and Urban
Planning• Public and Media
Modernization
• With our NMM model weather prediction is on very high level, but for better water forecast we need modernization of our hydrological and meteorological network and hydrological forecast model.
Reality
Thank you for your
attention!