flood forecasting in the republic of macedonia hydrological forecasting in republic of macedonia...
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FLOOD FORECASTING IN THEREPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA
HYDROLOGICAL FORECASTING IN
REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA
Regional Workshop on Hydrological Forecasting and Real Time Data Management
11-13 May 2009, Dubrovnik, CROATIA
Vasko STOJOV ([email protected])
Nikola PETRESKI, Boza KOSTADINOVSKA
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL SERVICE – MACEDONIA
...Since absolute flood protectionis almost impossible,flood forecasting is the only chance to avoid catastrophe.
Introduction
• LOCATION
Relief-Map
Map of the main catchments
• Aegean See• Adriatic See• Black See
Climatic conditions
- In the higher regions of the country exist mountainous climate with various subtypes;
- In the other parts is changing from continental to variable continental;
- In the river Vardar valley and in the lower parts of some tributaries exist Sub-Mediterranean climate.
Flood Forecasting Activities
• Collection and processing of Hydrometeorological data• Analysing meteorological products;• Receiving Weather Forecast;• Analysing hydrological data;• Water Forecast;• Hydrological Information and Alarming.
Meteorological Data
Needs of new automatic stationsespecially in the mountainous regions
Collection and processing of
Hydrological Data
Needs of new automatic stationsespecially in the mountainous regions
Collection and processing of
Analysing meteorological products
• Satellite Maps-EUMETSAT;• Internet Maps-Wetterzentrale;-Meteo Blue;
• NMM Maps;-temperature;-air pressure;-precipitation;-wind direction;-cloud cover• Forecast Meteograms.
Receiving weather forecast and alarming
Hydrological Analysing
• Hydrological Data;
Flood forecasting of the upper catchment of the r.Vardar
Hydrological StationInfo Hydrological Station
Rain Gauge Station
Graph-analytical method forFlood Forecasting
Rain
No.River and
Hydrological Station
Gostivar Tetovo Jazinci Kicevo M.Brod Zdunje Skopje
70 40 70.5 43.5 3.8 10 39 x
x1 x2 x3 x4 x5 x6 x7 mm
0.45 0.41 0.14 - - - -
32 16 10 - - - - 58
- - - 0.43 0.36 0.21 -
- - - 19 1 2 - 22
- - 1 - - - -
- - 70.5 - - - - 70.5
0.14 0.14 0.225 0.15 0.12 0.145 0.08
10 6 16 7 0 1 3 43
ESTIMATION OF AVERAGE RAIN VALUE FOR CATCHMENT OF THE R.VARDAR AT SKOPJE
Rain Gauge Stations
1Vardar Radusa
4 Vardar Skopje
2Treska Zdunje
3Lepenec
Lepenec Vliv
• Estimation of average precipitation for relevant catchments;
Graph-analytical method
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
-120 -100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0
-160
-140
-120
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
006.05.05 00:00 07.05.05 00:00 08.05.05 00:00 09.05.05 00:00
43
6080
20
Q (m3/s)
Qo (m3/s)
H (cm)
120 100 80 60 40 20
T (days)
40
Graph-analytical method
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
-120 -100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0
-160
-140
-120
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
006.05.05 00:00 07.05.05 00:00 08.05.05 00:00 09.05.05 00:00
43
6080
20
Q (m3/s)
Qo (m3/s)
H (cm)
120 100 80 60 40 20
T (days)
40
Hydrological Information and Alarming
• Centre for Crisis;• Centre for informing and alarming;• Relevant Ministries;• Public and Media
What is reality
• With our NMM model, weather forecast is on very high level;
• METEO ALARM give public information about bad weather situations; but
• for better water forecast we need modernization of our hydrological network, raingauge system and update of our hydrological forecast model.
Flash Floods is our reality
Flash Floods is our reality (05.10.2008)
Flash Floods is our reality (05.10.2008)
Flash Floods is our reality (05.10.2008)
Salvador Dali
“Have no fear of perfection–you’ll never reach it”
“We know we are not perfect, but also we are not fear to keep on trying”
Vasko Stojov
Thank you for your attention