flinders island isolated power system (ips) connect 2016 t edis green energy markets
TRANSCRIPT
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Australian Renewable Energy
Market Update
Tristan Edis – Director Analysis & Advisory
Nov 2016
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Outline
• Australia’s coal love affair
• Policy support for renewables
• Trends and outlook
• The sad story of remote/small grids
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About Green Energy Markets
• Green Energy Markets produces analysis on
supply, demand and prices in Australia’s major
carbon abatement certificate markets.
• Tristan Edis:
– Climate Spectator, Grattan Institute, EY, Clean Energy
Council, Australian Government Greenhouse Office
• Subscribers include power co’s, developers,
equipment suppliers and government.
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Australia’s coal love affair
• Australia’s biggest export earner has been coal.
• Australia’s electricity mix dominated by coal.
• The carbon emissions intensity of Australia’s
electricity supply is the highest in the OECD
(excepting Estonia) and higher than China.
• The wholesale cost of generating electricity (not
delivered cost) in Australia has historically been
some of the lowest in the developed world approx.
US$32/MWh or $40AUD
• We also have good solar and wind resources but
$40 insufficient.
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Policy support for renewables
• Government policy known as the Renewable
Energy Target scheme underpins project viability.
• For solar below 100kW it provides an upfront rebate
of up to $40 per MWh for imputed generation over
next 15 years. Equates to:
– Vic: $700/kW
– NSW, Southern QLD, WA, SA: $800/kW
– Northern/Inland Aust: $900/kW
• By comparison you can buy a system pre-rebate for
about $1300/kW - $2000/kW
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Policy support for renewables
• For larger than 100kW you receive financial support
per MWh after it is generated. Financial value
varies up to cap of $65 non-tax deductible or
$92.86 tax effective.
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Trends & outlook
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Monthly renewable generation in NEM
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Trends and outlook
• Supply of renewable energy falls short of demand
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Large-scale RET demand-supply balance
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Trends and outlook
• We need an awful lot of capacity and quickly
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Historical MWs committed versus required to meet RET
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Trends and outlook
• The cost of renewables is less than available prices
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• ACT wind auction results
(nominal):
– Hornsdale I – $92
– Hornsdale II – $77
– Sapphire – $89.10
– Coonooer Bridge – $81.50
– Ararat - $87
Combined value
Power + LGC
Power price -
2019
Plus LGC @
$85
SA $99 $184
QLD $68 $153
NSW $67 $152
VIC $68 $153
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Trends and outlook
• Solar PV market gone through two booms and then
slow decline and now may be stabilising.
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Trends and outlook
• Growth in system size has offset large drop in
system numbers
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Proportion of systems installed by size category
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Solar share of total generation
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Sunday 20 Nov 2016 32%
24%
16%
8%
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Solar share of total generation
14
Monday 21 Nov 2016
32%
24%
16%
8%
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Solar share of total generation
15
32%
24%
16%
8%
Tuesday 22 Nov 2016
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Solar share of total generation
16
Wednesday 23 Nov 2016 32%
24%
16%
8%
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Solar share of total generation
17
Thursday 24 Nov 2016 32%
24%
16%
8%
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Solar share of total generation
18
32%
24%
16%
8%
Friday 25 Nov 2016
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Solar share of total generation
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Saturday 26 Nov 2016
32%
24%
16%
8%
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20
Darwin
12.7% dwellings
Outer Melbourne
Suburbs
20%+ dwellings
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21
Esperance
9.3%
Karatha
4.1%
Derby
2.7%
Canning Vale
37.6%
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Brisbane
30+%
Karumba/
Normanton
4.5%
Birdsville
8.2%
Inland of Cairns
11.6%
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Huge cost difference
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REALITY
100kW system: $1.20
10kW system: $1.40
5kW system:$1.55
Note: based on landed
module prices @
US$0.40 (AUD$0.53)
Using Fronius/SMA+
Jinko/Trina
NT Power & Water
Experienced urban
solar retailer
Cost per watt - remote utility vs urban retailer
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Conclusion
• Policy settings require big step-up in investment in
utility-scale.
• Rooftop PV now a big player in major cities and
grids.
• Cost of solar PV now very attractive but can it be
replicated outside urbanised areas.
• But uptake lagging well behind in remote/smaller
grids.
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Presented by:
Tristan Edis Bcom (Hons)
Director – Analysis & Advisory
T +61 3 9805 0777
greenmarkets.com.au