flightsayer - making air travel smarter

13
© 2016 Resilient Ops, Inc. making air travel smarter V4.1 rev.12/2016

Upload: bala-chandran

Post on 16-Apr-2017

139 views

Category:

Travel


1 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Flightsayer - Making air travel smarter

© 2016 Resilient Ops, Inc.

making air travel smarter

V4.1 rev.12/2016

Page 2: Flightsayer - Making air travel smarter

© 2016 Resilient Ops, Inc. 2

Passengers today have multiple options to track and react to flight delays, but few that help proactively avoid them

“Where’s my flight? What’s the latest status?” “Will my flight be delayed and do I have options?”

Live tracking and historical stats Predictive analytics

Page 3: Flightsayer - Making air travel smarter

© 2016 Resilient Ops, Inc. 3

flightsayer: Helping passengers make informed decisions

What passengers need What is currently available

Historical delay stats by flight; inadequate because delays in past 2 months are not indicative of delays over the next 2 months & not all flights have sufficient history

Real-time updates from airlines & third-party apps; not useful informing passengers after the flight has been delayed, by which time it is often too late to avoid it

The flightsayer difference

flightsayer synthesizes weather, historical and seasonal trends, differences by airline, airport, etc. to estimate true delay risk

flightsayer continuously monitors the weather, airport conditions, & flight status, and issues predictive alerts 16+ hours before departure, and even suggests alternatives

Before booking

After booking

I need to make a 10am meeting in New York next

Monday. Which flight should I take?

I’m on tomorrow’s 8am flight to JFK. Will my flight arrive on time?

Page 4: Flightsayer - Making air travel smarter

© 2016 Resilient Ops, Inc. 4

Our sophisticated algorithms sift through vast and complex data to identify patterns that forecast future delays

Proprietary algorithms

Input: Various factors including weather, flight status, airspace constraints & flight connectivity

Output: estimated delay likelihood for all US flights hours

to months before departure

Page 5: Flightsayer - Making air travel smarter

© 2016 Resilient Ops, Inc. 5

flightsayer ranks flight delay risk on a 1—10 scaleDelay risk depends on the likelihood and duration of delay

DELAY INDEX

1LOW RISK

DELAY INDEX

2LOW RISK

DELAY INDEX

3LOW RISK

DELAY INDEX

4MED RISK

DELAY INDEX

5MED RISK

DELAY INDEX

6HIGH RISK

DELAY INDEX

7HIGH RISK

DELAY INDEX

8HIGH RISK

DELAY INDEX

9SEVERE RISK

DELAY INDEX

10SEVERE RISK

flightsayer delay risk

Before booking Book a flight with lower risk if possible Avoid booking these flights if you can

After booking Relax, we’re keeping an eye on it for you

Get ready to change plans

Rebook if possible

Rebook NOW!

Low likelihood and short delays

High likelihood and long delays

Page 6: Flightsayer - Making air travel smarter

© 2016 Resilient Ops, Inc. 6

An example: LaGuardia to Fort Lauderdale on Oct 28th, 2016 (I)

Flight may be delayed because of a late incoming flight and departure constraints at LGA

Find alternatives

JetBlue 1371 @ 9:41 pm LGA FLL

9:30a 9:30a

JetBlue 1201JFK FLL7:53p

JetBlue 553JFK PBI8:03p

United 711EWR FLL8:45p

Passenger gets a delay alert 12 hours before

departure, saying flight has

a high risk of delay

Passenger books the

9:41pm flight from LGA to FLL,

and tells flightsayer to

start monitoring the flight

1 2

Passenger works with ticket

provider to rebook on one of

the options

flightsayer recommends 3

alternatives, including flights to/from nearby

airports

3 4

DELAY INDEX

6HIGH RISK

DELAY INDEX

1LOW RISK

DELAY INDEX

1LOW RISK

DELAY INDEX

1LOW RISK

Page 7: Flightsayer - Making air travel smarter

© 2016 Resilient Ops, Inc. 7

An example: LaGuardia to Fort Lauderdale on Oct 28th, 2016 (II)

Flight may be delayed because of a late incoming flight and departure constraints at LGA

Find alternatives

JetBlue 1371 @ 9:41 pm LGA FLL

9:30a 9:30a

JetBlue 1201JFK FLL7:53p

JetBlue 553JFK PBI8:03p

United 711EWR FLL8:45p

DELAY INDEX

6HIGH RISK

DELAY INDEX

1LOW RISK

DELAY INDEX

1LOW RISK

DELAY INDEX

1LOW RISK

Greater productivity

Lower costs by avoiding last-minute rebooking and rescheduling

Higher passenger morale

How much is two hours of your customer’s / employee’s time worth?

Delayed 2½ hours Delayed 49 min

Delayed 1 min

On time

Page 8: Flightsayer - Making air travel smarter

© 2016 Resilient Ops, Inc. 8

Accuracy twelve hours out: Helping passengers proactively avoid delaysPredicted risk vs. actual delays for all domestic US flights Nov-Dec 2016

5% 12%23% 29%

41% 43%52% 50%

63%

89%

13 2647 60 81 81 96 105

132

263

Predicted risk 12 hours out

% flights delayed 60+ minutes on

arrival

Average arrival delay (minutes) • Predictions can be used to

drive better rebooking decisions the previous day or morning of travel, especially if alternative airports exist

• Flights with a risk of 5 or greater experience an average delay of more than 1 hour

How to read this chart: flights with a score of 9 twelve hours before departure had an average delay of 132 minutes and were delayed by 60+ minutes 63% of the time.

10x

Page 9: Flightsayer - Making air travel smarter

© 2016 Resilient Ops, Inc. 9

Accuracy three days out: Helping passengers book & rebook proactivelyPredicted risk vs. actual delays for all domestic US flights Nov-Dec 2016

4%11%

22%

37%48%

58%

1025

49

87117

172

Predicted risk 3 days out

% flights delayed 60+ minutes on

arrival

Average arrival delay (minutes)

• Predictions can be used to make better booking/ rebooking decisions, especially when faced with major delay events (e.g., snowstorms)

• Flights with a risk of 4-5 are ~10x more likely to be significantly delayed than those with a risk of 1

Predictions 3 days out rarely have a delay risk greater than 610x

Page 10: Flightsayer - Making air travel smarter

© 2016 Resilient Ops, Inc. 10

Accuracy four weeks out: Helping passengers book better flightsPredicted risk vs. actual delays for domestic US flights Nov-Dec 2016 on selected segments

7%

16%

29%

5%11%

31%

15

2936

1324

58

Predicted risk 4 weeks out

% flights delayed 60+ minutes on

arrival

Average arrival delay (minutes)

New York – Chicago(incl. nearby airports)

Predictions 4 weeks out

rarely have a delay risk

greater than 3

Los Angeles – San Francisco(incl. nearby airports)

• Predictions can be used to choose better flights (predictions account for differences by airport, airline, time of day, etc.)

• On two of the country’s busiest routes, flights with a risk of 3 are 4-6 times as likely to be significantly delayed than flights with a risk of 1

4x 6x

Page 11: Flightsayer - Making air travel smarter

© 2016 Resilient Ops, Inc. 11

Our Beta users are already seeing value…

“This tool is amazing! It has already saved the day for my team once.

We were able to switch to a better flight because of the warnings and

saved hours of headache.”

- User at global consulting firm after

using flightsayer for just one day

Page 12: Flightsayer - Making air travel smarter

© 2016 Resilient Ops, Inc. 12

Bala ChandranOptimization geek, graduate school research in optimizing air traffic flows and predicting airspace congestion, former operations consultant

Hamsa BalakrishnanMIT professor working on ways to improve airspace efficiency, working closely with the FAA, airports, and airlines to drive operational improvements

Loren WernerStats and modeling guru, former operations consultant, developed probabilistic risk models for healthcare, marketing, and financial services

Diana PfeilMachine learning and airspace weather buff, PhD thesis on impact of weather on airspace capacity, worked on big data at Amazon before it was cool

Powerful technology you can rely on, developed by a team of expertsCompany has received two NASA SBIR grants to develop algorithms for air traffic optimization

Michael JacquesBusiness development warrior, 30+ years in the travel industry working with companies ranging from startups to Fortune 500 companies

Page 13: Flightsayer - Making air travel smarter

© 2016 Resilient Ops, Inc. 13

Work with us

We are looking for business partners, especially in corporate travel

• We will work with you to conduct a low-overhead pilot to validate the value of our predictions to you

and your employees/customers

• License our API for integration into your travel application when you’re ready to scale

• Predictions are available only for domestic US flights; Canada and Europe are in the pipeline

www.flightsayer.com

[email protected]