flexible inflation targeting and alternative … · nominal gdp targeting disadvantages more...
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FLEXIBLE INFLATION TARGETING AND ALTERNATIVE MONETARY
POLICY TARGETS – WHAT DOES RESEARCH TELL US?
ØISTEIN RØISLAND
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Disclaimer
Views and conclusions expressed in this presentation are my
own should not be taken to represent the views of Norges Bank
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Theory: Welfare-maximizing monetary policy can be implemented
through FIT– Woodford
Caveat 1: Welfare-maximizing monetary policy imply stabilizing a large
number of variables
Caveat 2: FIT might require considerable flexibility to implement
welfare-optimizing policy– “Divine coincidence” only in very simple, unrealistic models
Flexible Inflation targeting (FIT)
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Price-level targeting– Or a less extreme variant: average inflation targeting
Nominal GDP targeting
– Level
– Growth
Alternatives to FIT
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Price-level targeting
Inflation Price level
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Price-level targeting
Resembles optimal policy under commitment
– History-dependence
Easier to escape a liquidity trap
– Expectations of expansionary future monetary policy
Less uncertainty about the future price level– Smaller unexpected changes in real value of debt
Advantages
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Price-level targetingDisadvantages
Can lead to large fluctuations output (and inflation) if– expectations are not forward-looking, or
– price-level target not credible
More difficult to understand for the public
Has not (really) been tested in practice
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Nominal GDP targetingAdvantages
Hard-wires a balance between price stability and output stability – PY = target
Resembles optimal policy under commitment– History-dependence
Easier to escape a liquidity trap
Reduces financial risk– Debt contracts based on fixed nominal repayments
Good properties for small open economies hit by ToT shocks– Difference between GDP deflator and CPI
Correlated with house prices and credit– Less need for “leaning against the wind”
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Nominal GDP targetingDisadvantages
More difficult than IT to explain to the public
Large revisions in NGDP data
NGDP-level targeting has same problems as price-level
targeting if expectations are non-rational or limited credibility
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NGDP and CPI tell different stories about nominal stability
10Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
0
2
4
6
8
10
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014
Core CPI (l.h.s)
NGDP mainland (r.h.s.)
Annual change. Percent
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Positively correlated with terms of trade shocks
11
Annual change. Percent
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
NGDP mainland (l.h.s.) ToT mainland (r.h.s.)
Source: Statistics Norway
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…and credit growth
12
Four-quarter change. Percent
-4
0
4
8
12
16
-4
0
4
8
12
16
1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014
NGDP mainland
Domestic gross debt held by the public
Source: Statistics Norway
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Difficult to beat flexible inflation targeting
Trade-off between flexibility and credibility/accountability
Research question: Could an alternative target (e.g. NGDP) provide sufficient real
and financial stability without requiring too much flexibility?
ReFIT research
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Welfare loss under FIT and NGDP targeting for various degrees of flexibility
Brubakk and Røisland (2017)
Welfare
loss • NEMO
• Welfare depends on stability
in CPI inflation, output gap
and house prices (small
weight) (+ interest rate smoothing)
• Foreign and domestic shocks
St.dev. of target variable
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Welfare loss under FIT and NGDP targeting for various degrees of flexibility
Bergholt (2017)
Welfare
loss
St.dev. of target variable(percentage points)
FIT
NGDP
• Three-sector model• Commodity (oil)
• Manufacturing
• Service
• Welfare depends on stability in CPI
inflation and output gap (+ interest rate smoothing)
• International shocks only
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Conclusions
Welfare-optimal monetary policy can in principle be implemented through FIT– But needs to be flexible
Trade-off between flexibility and credibility/accountability
Price-level targeting and NGDP targeting have some nice properties in theory– But has some practical problems
Relatively strict NGDP targeting could come quite close to «optimal» FIT for
Norway– Correlated with house prices and credit: less need for “leaning”
– Implies appropriate monetary policy responses to ToT shocks
– NGDP as a cross-check on nominal stability?
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FLEXIBLE INFLATION TARGETING AND ALTERNATIVE MONETARY
POLICY TARGETS – WHAT DOES RESEARCH TELL US?
ØISTEIN RØISLAND
NORGES BANK
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Extra
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NGDP and house prices
19
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014
Nominal GDP growth
Houce price growth
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
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Price-level targeting
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No weight on stabilizing house prices
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Equal weight on inflation and house prices
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Three-sector model (Bergholt)