“Flexibility mechanisms”

TFIEP - Stockholm, Sweden2-3 May 2010

Andre Zuber

European Commission

Environment Directorate-General

The present Gothenburg protocol offers flexibility in:The present Gothenburg protocol offers flexibility in:

•appliction of measures on existing sources only when appliction of measures on existing sources only when techically and economically feasible;techically and economically feasible;

•alternative strategies to achieve the same overall effect as alternative strategies to achieve the same overall effect as ELVs.ELVs.

The present GP has little flexibility: The present GP has little flexibility:

•in application dates and levels of ELVs;in application dates and levels of ELVs;

•in respecting the 2010 ceilings that were set by negotiations.in respecting the 2010 ceilings that were set by negotiations.

Several Parties to the CLRTAP have not ratified the GP due to its Several Parties to the CLRTAP have not ratified the GP due to its complexity and lack of « legal control ».complexity and lack of « legal control ».

Several Parties to the GP have difficulties (in their view) in Several Parties to the GP have difficulties (in their view) in respecting the 2010 ceiling due to:respecting the 2010 ceiling due to:

•stronger than anticipated economic or population growth; stronger than anticipated economic or population growth;

•Changes in methodology for Inventories (including the fuels Changes in methodology for Inventories (including the fuels used/sold);used/sold);

•The failure of some policies to deliver anticipated reductions.The failure of some policies to deliver anticipated reductions.

Background

Emissions of all mobile sources - Inventory 2000 vs. Inventory 2001

Inventory version 2000

Inventory version 2001

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

10

00

t N

Ox

AT NOx emissions

Some examples – Updated activity data (non-road machinery

AT NOx emissions

Some examples – A new source category Agriculture manure management

NOx-emissions from agriculture - Inventory 2008 vs. Inventory 2009

Inventory version 2008

Inventory version 2009

0,00

1,00

2,00

3,00

4,00

5,00

6,00

7,00

8,00

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

10

00

t N

Ox

AT NOx emissions

Some examples – A new set of ELVs Anticipated vs real world emissions

Specific emissions of diesel fuelled cars

Inventory and projections 1999

Current inventory

0

0,1

0,2

0,3

0,4

0,5

0,6

0,7

0,8

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

g N

Ox

/km

AT NOx emissions

Some examples – Activity projection Anticipated vs materialised activity

Road performance of heavy duty vehicles(performance with fuel sold in Austria)

data and projections 1999

current data

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Mil

l. v

eh

icle

kil

om

etr

es

NOx emissions of heavy duty vehicles(emissions based on fuel sold in Austria)

data and projections 1999

current data

0

20

40

60

80

100

kt

NO

x

Potential new flexibility in the GP

The EU has invited to a discussion on increased flexibility to address Article 3 BASIC OBLIGATIONS:

“….1 bis. A Party having an annual emission in year X above the corresponding

emission ceiling set in Annex II still fulfils the obligations of paragraph 1 if: (a) the average of the annual emissions of the years X-1, X and X+1 does not

exceed that emission ceiling; or (b) the exceedance is caused by:

- new source categories found after the adoption of the Protocol and approved by the EMEP Steering Body, or

- significant differences between the emission factors and the way emissions of a source are calculated the setting of the emission ceilings and the updated emission factors and the way emissions are calculated in assessing emission inventories as approved by the EMEP Steering Body;

-and under the strict provision that the Party also fulfils the obligations of paragraphs 2 to 8 with regard to the pollutant for which the ceiling is exceeded.

Any Party intending to make use of one or more of these provisions shall document the underlying data in its Informative Inventory Report as referred to in Article 7, paragraph 1.”

What flexibility could/should be included in the GP in relation to What flexibility could/should be included in the GP in relation to compliance checking of emissions in relation to ceilings:compliance checking of emissions in relation to ceilings:

-that accounts for new source categories, new ELVs and new -that accounts for new source categories, new ELVs and new methodology;methodology;

-that accounts for flexibility in averaging over certain time -that accounts for flexibility in averaging over certain time period;period;

-that accounts for significant differences between anticipated -that accounts for significant differences between anticipated (ex ante) and real (ex-post) factors used for emission (ex ante) and real (ex-post) factors used for emission inventories (E.F. and activity); inventories (E.F. and activity);

-that is transparent, and does not create loopholes;-that is transparent, and does not create loopholes;

-that secures that « best estimates » are provided by parties ?-that secures that « best estimates » are provided by parties ?

What should be the requirement for parties to document the What should be the requirement for parties to document the adjusted IE and on what basis?adjusted IE and on what basis?

In which part of the GP or guidance such requirements would be In which part of the GP or guidance such requirements would be laid down? laid down?

Summary in a policy perspective

What technical guidance can the TFEIP give that addresses the What technical guidance can the TFEIP give that addresses the policy issues?policy issues?

To what extent would relative ceilings (for 2020) give flexibility?To what extent would relative ceilings (for 2020) give flexibility?

What technical guidance would have to be developed by the TFEIP What technical guidance would have to be developed by the TFEIP to secure both transparent and accurate reporting of emissions to secure both transparent and accurate reporting of emissions andand allow for an correct and acceptable « adjustment » of the EI. allow for an correct and acceptable « adjustment » of the EI.

What are the limitations to actually perform the recalcualtions for What are the limitations to actually perform the recalcualtions for adjustment of EI since some information on used factors may not adjustment of EI since some information on used factors may not be available? be available?

A summary paper by the TFEIP (similar to the chairs paper to the A summary paper by the TFEIP (similar to the chairs paper to the 48th WGSR would be helpful.48th WGSR would be helpful.

Summary in a TFIEP perspective