fleet numerical… …atmospheric & oceanographic prediction enabling fleet safety and decision...

Fleet Numerical……Atmospheric & Oceanographic Prediction Enabling Fleet Safety and Decision Superiority…

Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center

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CAPT John Okon (CAPT Russ Smith – SEP15)Commanding Officer

Mr. Bill KerrInterim Technical Director

Mr. John ErtlDeputy Operations Officer

COPCMay 2015


Information Dominance Type Commander “Command Relationships”

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CNMOC Operational Control

Chief of Naval Operations

Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center

(FNMOC)Monterey, CA

Naval Oceanography Operations Command (NOOC)

Stennis Space Center, MS

U.S. Naval Observatory(NAVOBSY)

Washington, D.C.

Naval Oceanographic Office(NAVOCEANO)

Stennis Space Center, MS

Commander, U. S. Fleet Forces Command

Commander, Naval Meteorology andOceanography Command

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Fleet Weather Center Norfolk(FWC-N)

Norfolk, VA

Fleet Weather Center San Diego (FWC-SD)

San Diego, CA


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• NAVGEM – NAVal Global Environment Model; (T359L50) ~ 37KM, 50 vertical levels; Semi-Lagrangian dynamic core model. At the center of FNMOC production.

• COAMPS – Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System; regional mesoscale model; multi-nested to ~45/15/5 KM resolution (some ~1.67KM); 60 vertical levels. Driven by NAVGEM. At the center of FNMOC production.

• WW3 – WaveWatch III; spectral ocean wave model; global (~35KM) and regional (5KM) implementations. Driven by NAVGEM and COAMPS.

• EFS – Ensemble Forecast System; NAVGEM 1.1(NAVGEM on 21 May 2014) global 20-member, 16-day forecast; includes 20-member global WW3 ensemble.

• GFDN – Navy implementation of the GFDL TC model; ~17KM resolution; the only moveable-nest TC model operational in ALL ocean basins and a critical model for extended TC forecasts. Driven by NAVGEM.

• NAAPS – Navy Atmospheric Aerosol Prediction System; the only operational global aerosol model. Atmospheric optical properties output feeds Target Acquisition Weapons Software (TAWS). Driven by NAVGEM.

Models Overview

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EOM - FDP System Connection

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DREN SDPStennis

Navy DSRCDREN SDP

Service RouterAlcatel-Lucent 7750 SR-7 NRL Firewall

NIPRNET Router

EOM/FDPFirewall

McAfee S5032

EOM/FDP RouterCisco 7604

EOM/FDP SwitchCisco Nexus 5548lansu700eom-dmz

NRL MRY

BFT11, BFT12

FNMOC Firewall Sledge

McAfee 2150F

EOM/FDP SwitchCisco Nexus 5548

lansu700eom-inside

BFT13, BFT14

FNMOC Switchlansu700c,d

FNMOC Switchlansu700a6

FNMOC/Alpha, FNMOC/Beta

FNMOC/Ops

NRL Border Router

EOM/FDP Enclave

FNMOC Enclave DMZ

Many DMZ Systems

FNMOC Enclave LAN

FNMOC Border Router

Cisco 6509

2.5 Gb

10 Gb

1 Gb

1 Gb

10 Gb

10 Gb

10 Gb

10 Gb

10 Gb10 Gb

1 Gb

10 Gb

EOM/FDP NetApp

DREN10 Gb

NIPRNET74AC

NOAAOTN

BFTN

KDC


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76 min

44 min

48 min

EOM/FDP NAVGEM v1.2.3 vs OPSRun

EOM IOC 18MAY – NAVGEM 1.3 (31km)


• Recent Events– NAVGEM v1.3

• T425L60 (~31 km horizontal grid spacing; 0.04 HPa model top ~71 km)• Reduced Gaussian Grids• Submitted for TD2 approval by NRL• OpEval Initiated.

• Plans– NAVGEM v1.3 operational implementation [10JUN15]– NAVGEM v1.3.1 [4QFY15]

• Primarily data assimilation upgrades

– NAVGEM v1.4 [4QFY16]• T681L80 (~19 km horizontal grid spacing; 0.01HPa model top ~80 km)

– NAVGEM v2.0 [FY18]• T10XXL80 (~13 km)

Global - NAVGEM


NAVGEM 1.3

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NAVGEM 1.3 (T425L60, ~31km) in OPS ~ 10JUN


Model Bias as compared to altimeter measurements v4 (BETA)

WW3

Model Bias as compared to altimeter measurements v3.14 (OPS)

WW3 v4 in OPS ~ 10APR


COAMPS

• Recent Events– COAMPS v5.1 into OPS OCT14– COAMPS NAVDAS v2.5 implemented operationally [Dec 2014]

• Improved 10 m wind increments

– COAMPS 4DVar Validation Test Panel convened [Feb 2015]– Acquiring Predator Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) data from AFWA

• Data decoding in development• In preparation for upgrades from UAS RTP

– Assimilation of radar reflectivity data• OpEval underway for Next Generation Radar (NEXRAD) and Hazardous Weather

Detection and Display Capability (HWDDC) ship-board radar [Dec 2014 – Mar 2015]

• Plans– Initial implementation of radar reflectivity [3QFY15]

• NEXRAD in SOCAL and VACAPES• HWDDC for ships in their area of interest (AOI)

– COAMPS 4DVAR operational implementation [1QFY16]– Ship following areas for HWWDC equipped CVN/LHA/LHDs– Continue to move legacy areas to Hi-Top

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• Plans (con’t)– Operational Implementation of COAMPS v5.2 [3QFY15]

• Cloud and Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) upgrade features:– Merging of code trees for COAMPS and COAMPS-TC– Improved microphysics (reduced upper level cloud bias, important for ballistic reentry

forecasts)– Modified PBL entrainment– New shallow cumulus scheme– Simplified Arakawa cumulus scheme (improves Madden-Julian Oscillation predictions over

tropical oceans)

• Initial operational interest is for merging of the COAMPS and COAMPS-TC code trees in time for the TC season [3QFY15]

• Implementation of other features will follow further testing and evaluation [1QFY16]

– Mesoscale ensemble forecasting [FY16]• Supported by FY14 Unfunded to transition a version of COAMPS-OS to support

uncoupled ensemble capability• Planned for Navy DSRC to run in low-load period following completion of global

ensemble• Initial focus on EM/EO/EW applications• Collaborate with AF on a multi-model ensemble where our missions overlap

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COAMPS (cont.)


COAMPS-OS

• Recent Events– Operational implementation COAMPS-OS v2.5.1 [2QFY15]

• Includes upgrades to support implementation of Atmospheric Acoustic Propagation (AAP)

– NRL AAP propagation model to replace NASA model– AAP GUI refinements based on feedback from Marine Aviation Weapons

and Tactics Squadron (MAWTS-1)– DTED level 1 (1 km) hi res DB from National Geospatial Agency for use

with propagation model

• Plans– Operational implementation of COAMPS-OS v2.5.2

[4QFY15]• Includes support for Fleet Synthetic Training (FST) requirements

– 3 TB database of global initial and boundary conditions– 1 contractor to install & respond to FST requests for products

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COAMPS-TC

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V2.1(2014)

V1.1(2013)

33%

Track Error 2013 v 2014 WPAC Forecast Intensity Error 2014

COAMPS-TC 2.2 in OPS 1JUN


Atmospheric Acoustic Propagation (AAP)

• In COAMPS-OS• Handles weather and terrain• Manual or file-based (CRD)

flight plan inputs • On-Demand COAMPS model

run for high resolution over target

• Output Formats: KML, Shapefile, PNG Images

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Green = 20-40% detection, Red = 90-100%


Climatology Services

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• Archives/Updates ocean surface (i.e. wind and swell waves) and atmospheric numerical model fields.

• Provides tailored climatology products in requested format - briefs, narratives, station and port briefs, forecaster handbooks, via the Climatology Portal on the NEP-Oc.

• Maintains the Advanced Climate Analysis and Forecasting (ACAF) system on the NEP-Oc.


Advanced Climate Analysis and Forecast v4

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ACAF v4 All Domains - Q1FY16


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Projected FNMOC HPC Systems

System TypeCore Count TFlops

FY13 FY14 FY15 FY13 FY14 FY15

A2 Emerald Dell Linux Cluster System 2952 5640 9600 34.2 96.6 188.5

A2 Alpha Dell Linux Cluster System 1280 1280 1620 29.7 29.7 37.6

A2 Beta Dell Linux Cluster System 1312 1312 2772 24.0 24.0 57.8

A2 Beryl Dell Linux Cluster System 1176 1688 1688 13.6 25.5 25.5

A2 Zircon Dell Linux Cluster System 232 232 232 2.6 2.6 2.6

Total Unclassified 6952 10152 15912 104.1 178.4 312.0

A2 Ruby Dell Linux Cluster System 2048 2816 6656 38.6 56.4 145.5


A2 Beta Dell Linux Cluster System 256 256 1496 5.9 5.9 34.7

Total Secret 2560 3328 8808 50.5 68.3 195.4

A2 Topaz Dell Linux Cluster System 910 1422 5582 10.5 22.4 118.9


A2 Beta Dell Linux Cluster System 0 0 1020 0.0 0.0 23.7Total TS 910 1422 6942 10.5 22.4 150.4

FS1 SGI ORIGIN 3900 256 256 0 0.7 0.7 0.0

FS2 SGI ORIGIN 3900 256 256 0 0.7 0.7 0.0

Totals 10422 14902 31662 165.10 269.03 657.87

Increased usage of NAVY DSRC allows increased COAMPS areas being fully coupled (where appropriate), Geospatial Services and anticipated future customer requests for additional COAMPS areas

935 1730

FY16 FY17DSRC


Future of Navy Modeling

Intent:

Align Naval Oceanography Enterprise atmospheric & physical oceanographic BonD Tier 1 modeling efforts to best support contingencies and operations.

End State:

Modeling resources are optimized, modeling intellectual capital is aligned, and BonD Tier 1 efforts are prepared for future operations and ESPC.


Questions?

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