fitcher csp

Photovoltaics versus Concentrated Solar Power

Dr. Martin Stickel

ICCI International Energy and Environment Fair and Conference

Isanbul, 14th May 2010

2 Photovoltaics versus Concentrated Solar Power – Turkey 2010 Conference

Agenda

Fichtner GmbH & Co. KG

Photovoltaics and Concentrated Solar Power

Financial Results depending on Plant Location

Summary


The Fichtner Group

Established in 1922 – still a family-owned concern

Germany’s biggest independent engineering and

consultancy enterprise

More than 1700 employees worldwide – 450 in our Home Office

Project experience in 150 countries

Over 1200 ongoing projects – around 650 in our Home Office

Active on behalf of:

• enterprises in the central services and utilities sector

• energy-intensive industries

• international development and commercial banks

• government and communal institutions and authorities

Total turnover of 179 million € in 2008 – 67% international turnover

3


FICHTNER – Independent Engineering and Consulting

Germany’s biggest independent engineering and consultancy company

Founded in 1922 and 100% family owned since then

Staff strength:Home office (Stuttgart) ca. 450Total ca. 1,700

Turn-over 2008: Home office: 122 million EUR Total: 179 million EUR

On a global level FICHTNER is on average involved in approx.1,200 projects with an overall investment volume of about 60 billion EUR.

FICHTNER is represented in more than 50 countries worldwide.


FICHTNER Turkey

FICHTNER has been working for more than 40 years on various projects in Turkey

Established in July 2008, FICHTNER Turkey is100% owned by FICHTNER Germany

Completed numerous projects mainly in the private sector

Brought together experienced international experts & local engineers/consultants and worked on the most important projects of Turkey

Vision of FICHTNER Turkey:

• Become one of the biggest well established engineering companies in the region

• Provide state-of-the art engineering and technical services to meet the demands of the growing energy market

• Make use of Turkey’s young population: Train local engineers and technical staff to make them compatible with international experts

• Use them for the most challenging projects in the region and worldwide


Renewable Energy Technologies

HydropowerWind PowerSolarthermal PowerPhotovoltaicGeothermal PowerSolid BiomassSewage and Landfill GasBiogas

Biomass to Liquid (BtL)

Fuel Cells


Project phase Our service Objective

Concept study Development and review of Definition of approach realization concepts

Feasibility study Investigation of technical and Financing agreement/depiction of financial viability financial performance

Conceptual and Drawing up permit Construction and operation layout engineering application documents permits

Detail engineering Drawing up tender documents Project- and client-specific tender documents

Tendering and Bid evaluation and Plant procurement to meet quality, contract award contract negotiations time and cost requirements

Construction and installation Site supervision Functional plant

Commissioning / test operation Supervision of commissioning Production-ready plantand tests

Operation Check of routine operation Regular commercial utilization

Our Range of Engineering and Consultancy Services


Agenda




Summary


Solar Irradiation in Turkey

Turkey shows similar irradiation characteristics as Spain, one of the largest solar energy markets.


Worldwide Installed PV Supply


PV „Grid Parity“ in Germany

Bundesverband Solarwirtschaft


Solar TechnologiesSolar Power

PlantsSolar Thermal Photovoltaic

(PV)

Concentrating (CPV)

Non-Concentr.

DC-AC Inverter

Solar-Chimney

Linear Fresnel

Parabolic Trough

Central Receiver

Dish

Rankine Cycle (ST)

Brayton Cycle

StirlingEngine

Electric Power

Wind Turbine

Thermal Energy Storage

Concentration ratio and Temperature increasing

Integrated Solar Combined Cycle

Non-Concentrating

Linear-focusing (single axis)

Point-focusing (dual axias)


Photovoltaics

Source: Juwi AG


Photovoltaic Power - Module Types

•Mono-crystalline silicon: Most efficient technology (efficiencies of around 18% (commercial) to 28% (research)

•Multi-crystalline silicon: Cheaper than mono-crystalline silicon but also less efficient. Research cells approach 24% efficiency, and commercial modules approach around 16% efficiency.

•Thin film: •Cheaper than crystalline silicon but less efficient. •Various materials (amorphous silicon, Cadmium Telluride, Copper Indium Diselluride (CIS))

Selection of the technology depending on: site, irradiation, temperature, costs vs. efficiency etc.


Photovoltaic Power - Module Tracking

Mean annual radiation gain in Central Europe

Mean annual radiation gain in Southern Europe

Fix, optimum tilt angle 0% 0%

Horizontal N-S axis 11.5% 17.4%

30° tilt axis 22.9% 29.8%

Vertical axis, module tilt 50° 23.1% 29.6%

Biaxial tracking 27.2% 34%


Concentrated Solar Power (CSP)

General Technology Principle Concentration of solar energy flow (direct irradiation required) Conversion of Solar irradiation into high temperature heat Conversion of high temperature heat into mechanical energy Conventional power generation technology

Characteristics High energy density Conventional components used (hybridisation possible) Economy of scale leads to large scale plants Possibility of thermal energy storage

Types of Solar Thermal Power Plants Parabolic Trough Fresnel Trough Solar Tower (Central Receiver) Parabolic Dish (Dish/Stirling) Solar Chimney


Parabolic Trough

Condenser

Steam370°C, 100bar

395°C

Electricityto the grid

ParabolicTrough Field

295°C

Storage

Air and vapour

Air Air

G ~

Solar HX

Cooling Tower

Steam turbine30 MW

Source: Fichtner


Solar Heat

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Time (hr.)

So

lar

Hea

t (M

W-t

h)

21. Jundumpingto storagefrom storagedirect used

Thermal storage transfers excess solar heat into evening hours.

Extension of full load operation to night time hours Reduction of part load operation (cloud transients) Dispatchable power generation

State-of-the-art technology: Two-tank molten salt storage (E.g. AndaSol 1-3: 1050 MWh [7.5 h])

CSP Advantage: Operation without Sunshine


Trends & Expectations

Capital Costs PV plants: 2.5-4 €/Wp EPC prices depending on module type and tracking system Decreasing module costs (future 1€/Wp), i.e. even lower EPC prices

Capital Costs CSP plants: 4-6 €/Wp (parabolic trough, 50MW) Due to technological innovations and economies of scale decreasing

electricity generation costs expected

Peak load or “base load” PV: Peak load plants purely depending on global solar irradiation CSP: Possibility of energy storage & relatively high predictability

of plant availability

Project Capacities PV: 1kW – 50MW CSP: Parabolic trough 10MW – 300MW

Fresnel 30MW (first commercial plant)


Agenda




Summary


Feasibility of Solar Projects

Fichtner Cost Database

Plant Concept & Simulation of

Electricity Generation

Plant CAPEX Plant OPEX

Revenues for Electricity Sales

Feed-in Tariff

Modelling of Project Economics

Net present valueInternal rate of returnLevelized electricity costs…


PV Performance Projection - Example


Site Assessment

Source: Google Maps


Site Assessment

Example: Johannesburg, South Africa


Sensitivity of O&M Costs


Sensitivity of Land Costs


Sensitivity of Ambient Temperature


Sensitivity of Direct Normal Irradiation


Agenda




Summary


Global Annual Solar Cell Production

Source: Photon


PV: Projection of Module Production Capacity

Source: Paula Mints, Navigant Consulting, Inc., 2009


0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Cum

ulati

ve In

stal

led

Capa

city

[MW

]

Announced CSP Projects

Accelerated Base Case Slow Development


Summary

No general „better“ technology but project specific technology selection

Size, topography, irradiation (global / direct), Accessibility, grid condition Feed-in tariffs Relevance of dispatchability / storage

Design optimization required for each project

Thorough project development and due diligence process Reliable design “Bankable” EPC and O&M Contracts

performance and plant acceptance criteria and procedures liquidated damages and incentive schemes

Reliable Yield Forecasts

Enormous potential for solar technologies in Turkey and worldwide


Contact

Whom to contact?

FICHTNER GmbH & Co. KGBüyükdere Cad. 87/534387 MecidiyeköyIstanbulTurkey

Phone 212- 2171767 Fax 212-2178124Mobile 0549-2171775E-Mail [email protected]

www.fichtner.com.tr

FICHTNER GmbH & Co. KGSarweystraße 370191 StuttgartGermany

Dr. Martin StickelManager PV / Solar Technologies

Phone +49 (0)711 8995-684Fax +49 (0)711 8995-495Mobile +49 (0) 172 6358294E-Mail [email protected]

www.fichtner.de


Typical Project Constellation

Investor

Solar ProjectSpecial Purpose

Vehicle (SPV)

Lender Insurance company

Utility

EPC contractor(s)

Service Company

Equity

EPC Contract

O&M Contract

PoliciesLoans

Power purchase agreement

Developer ManagementProject

Rights

Operation

Contract

Objectives:

Implementation of a long life power plants with high energy yield and availability Proper and safe operation complying with the relevant requirements Low cost, high return on investment


Typical Solar Power Technical Due Diligence

•Project structure and obligations of project parties•Solar radiation measurements and long-term global solar radiation assumptions•Technical concept such as layout, grid connection, civil works•Energy yield assessment as to the reliability of the input data, simulation, methods and results (SOLPRO / PVSYST)

•Suitability of site (e.g. radiation, temperature, site complexity, soil conditions)•Contracts / project agreements including mainly: EPC-Contract, grid connection agreement, PPA, O&M, technical and administrative operation

•Adequacy of the technical warranties and verification procedures (e.g. performance test, availability, technical characteristics)

•Qualification of involved parties, QC/QA concept•Permits and licenses (status, constraints e.g. due to noise, etc.)•Project insurances•Time schedule / •Project management / risk management•Financial model: elaboration of model or providing input data to bank’s / financial advisor’s model

•Analysis of project sensitivities / risk assessment

Phase I: Pre-Financial Close Due Diligence

Engineering

and contract

award

Construction

Operation

Conceptual

study and

decision-

making phase

Facilitate

investment /

financing

decisions


Typical Solar Power Technical Due Diligence

•Construction monitoring (compliance with contract / specifications)•Compliance with project schedule•Review of EPC contractor‘s / owner‘s progress report•Site and workshop inspections•Preparation of monthly or quarterly progress reports

Phase II: Construction Monitoring

•Certification of completion•Review of commissioning and of trial operation•Attendance and monitoring of the performance and reliability tests •Review of performance test results in view of liquidated damages requests•PV plant installation and mounting inspections

Phase III: Testing and completion certificate

•Carry out annual site visits•Preparation of (semi-) annual operating status reports including•operating performance (availability, power performance, energy yield)•maintenance and extraordinary events

Phase IV: Monitoring during term of project loan facilities

Engineering

and contract

award

Construction

Operation

Conceptual

study and

decision-

making phase

Facilitate

investment /

financing

decisions


PV World Market 2008

Bundesverband Solarwirtschaft


Integrated Expertise

Complete solutions on a sound technical and economic footing

Broad-based range of services from one source

Comprehensive technological know-how as foundation

• conventional technologies

• innovative technologies / renewable energies

Extensive planning experience in all project phases

Classical planning services are rounded off by

our over-arching expertise in consultancy

Consultancy

Planning Technologies

Power Supply

Energy Technology

Environmental Technology

Water and Infrastructure

IT, Economics and Finances


Gas turbine 90 MW

Exhaust600°C

Steam turbine60 MW

Condenser

Steam540°C, 100bar

395°C

Electricityto the grid

ParabolicTrough Field

295°C

Storage

Air and vapour

Air Air

G ~

HRSGSolar HX

Cooling Tower

G ~

Stack Exhaust100°C

Solar Island Combined Cycle Island

Integrated Solar Combined Cycle (ISCC)


Solar Thermal Power Plants – Fresnel

Principle / Characteristics Line-focussing with long mirror strips onto fixed absorber Lower optical efficiency compared to parabolic trough More simple design offers potentially lower investment cost Direct steam generation in absorber (25 – 100 bar / 270 – 550°C) Conventional water-steam-cycle (now saturated, future superheated) Efficient use of land due to compact design

Status Relatively new technology Several pilot plants in operation in Australia, Spain and USA First pre-commercial demonstration plant for electricity generation

(5 MWe) started operation end of 2008 in California First large scale plant shall start operation in 2012 in California

using Ausra’s Compact Linear Fresnel Reflector technology. New 30MW project announced in Spain, recent large

investment by Swiss utility


Solar Thermal Power Plants – Solar Tower

Principle / Characteristics Tracked field of mirrors („heliostats“), point focussing (factor > 500) Concentration on small area on top of the tower („receiver“) High concentration factors = high temperatures (up to 700°C) High solar-electric efficiency due to higher temperatures Different heat transfer fluids (molten salt, air, water/steam) generation of steam by heat exchanger conventional water-steam-cycle

Status Potential successfully demonstrated in several large pilot plants Solar Tower technologies at different development stages First two commercial plants in operation in Spain (PS 10 & 20) Several large plants (>100 MWe) under development in US Despite first commercial plants still more R&D needed


PV related services

- technical due diligences - on behalf of lenders as well as investors

- techno-economic feasibility and conceptual studies

- yield projections

- specifications for large-scale PV installations

- check of construction and operating contracts - EPC and O&M -

under their technical and commercial aspects

- supervision of construction and progress monitoring

- participation in acceptance tests

- verification of electricity yields during operation

- other PV related technical advisory


Methodology


Methodology – Financial Calculation

Levelized electricity costs (LEC) in €/kWh

It Investment expenditures in the year t in € Mt Operations and maintenance expenditures in the year t in €Et Electricity generation in the year t in kWhi Discount rate n Life time of the system in years


Site Assessment

Nassau, Bahamas


Sensitivity of Wind Speed


Extract of Reference Projects – Solar Thermal

Abu Dhabi:Design and Engineering 100 MWe CST Plant

India, Mathania 140 MWe ISCC (solar 30 MWe)

JordanProject Development for 50 MWe Solar Rankine Cycle Plant

Greece, Theseus AE Project Company 50 MW Solar Rankine Cycle Plant

BMU / KfW, ZIP Program Ten research projects for Market Introduction of Solar Technology

AustraliaSite Selection andFeasibility Study 200 MW CST Plant

Spain, AndaSol-1, -2, -3: Three Solar Rankine Cycle Plants with storage, each 50 MWe

Spain, PS-1010 MW Central Receiver Plant

Spain, RentaSolar S.A. Project Company forPV Power Plants in Spain

Morocco, Ain Beni Mathar400 MWe ISCC (solar 20 MWe)

World BankGlobal Market Initiative (GMI)EM-Power

Arizona, USAProject Development for 250 MWe Solar Rankine Cycle Plant

BotswanaSite Selection and Feasibility Study for 200 Mwe CST Plant Egypt, El Nasr

Solar Process Heat Plant

Egypt, Kuraymat: 150 MWe ISCC (solar 20 MWe)


Solar Irradiation

Different technologies use different type of irradiation.

Direct

Diffuse

Global = Diffuse + DirectDirect Direct

on horizontal plane

on normal plane

Direct

Diffuse

Global = Diffuse + DirectDirect Direct

on horizontal plane

on normal plane


Solar Thermal Power Plants – Parabolic Trough

Principle / Characteristics Tracked parabolic trough focuses on a „receiver“ (up to factor 100) Heat transfer fluid (currently synthetic oil) heats up to 393°C in receiver Generation of superheated steam via solar heat exchanger Conventional water-steam-cycle Possibility to store thermal energy (currently molten salt storage) Solar-to-electric efficiency of 12-16%

Status Most mature and bankable CSP technology First nine plants (SEGS plants) successfully in operation

since more than 20 years in California Several Gigawatts of parabolic trough power plants in

planning or already under construction Major cost reduction due to mass production, economy

of scale and further technological advancements Next steps: Direct steam generation + implementation

of new storage technologies (e.g. concrete)


Site Assessment

SiteDNI

[kWh/m²]

Temperature

[°C]

Wind

[m/s]

Nassau 1,890 25.7 4.1

Montalto 1,584 16.0 3.0

Johannesburg 2,302 15.7 3.5

TechnologyNassau

[kWh/kWp]

Montalto

[kWh/kWp]

Johannesburg

[kWh/kWp]

Thin film 1,886 1,609 2,020

Monocrystalline 1,728 1,485 1,904

Polycrystalline 1,683 1,466 1,879

Parabolic trough 2,125 1,570 2,155

fitcher csp

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