fisheries models: methods, data requirements, environmental linkages

Fisheries Models:Methods, Data Requirements, Environmental LinkagesRichard MethotNOAA FisheriesScience & Technology

Stock Assessment Overview

PRESENTATION OUTLINEAssessment GoalsWhat is a Stock Assessment?Data InputsAssessment MethodsRole of Environmental Data


Stock AssessmentCollecting, analyzing, and reporting demographic information for the purpose of determining the effects of fishing on fish populations.Key Concepts / JargonStock; Population; UnitAbundance; Biomass; Spawning BiomassRecruitment; Yearclass; CohortFisheryFishing mortality (F); Exploitation Rate


STOCK ASSESSMENT PROCESSPOPULATION MODEL:(Abundance, mortality)STOCK STATUSOPTIMUM YIELDCATCHLOGBOOKS,OBSERVERS,AGE/SIZE DATABIOLOGY AGE, GROWTH, MATURITYABUNDANCE TREND RESOURCE SURVEY,FISHERY CPUE, AGE/SIZE DATAADVANCED MODELS HABITAT CLIMATE ECOSYSTEM MANMADE STRESSSOCIOECONOMICS


STOCK ASSESSMENT & ECOSYSTEMOPTIMUM YIELDSINGLE SPECIESASSESSMENTMODELTIME SERIESOF RESULTS BIOMASS,RECRUITMENT,GROWTH,MORTALITYHOLISTIC ECOSYSTEM MODEL CUMULATIVE EFFECTS OF ALL FISHERIES AND OTHER FACTORSINDICATORS ENVIRONMENTAL,ECOSYSTEM,OCEANOGRAPHICRESEARCH ONINDICATOREFFECTS


Assessment ResultsUsed in Fishery ManagementMonitoring / ReactiveExploitation rate is higher than a maximum limit:overfishing is occurring and must be eliminated;biomass is below a minimum level:the stock is overfished (depleted). A rebuilding plan must be prepared to rebuild the stock in as short a time as possible;ProactiveAssessment forecasts provide the technical basis (operational model) for setting and adjusting fishery quotas and other management measures to:implement harvest policiesRebuild depleted stocks


HARVEST CONTROL RULE= OPERATIONAL MODELWhat is the current stock abundance relative to historical and target levels?What level of fishing mortality (F) is the limit (RED) and target (GREEN)?What level of short-term future catch would achieve target?


Chart3

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RELATIVE ABUNDANCE

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RELATIVE ABUNDANCE

YIELD

Sheet1

Widow

POPSpOutputchili-spawnsable(98) Q=.5

624213931648011157633189712.57571

YEARPOPWIDOWCHILISABLECANARYHAKEYEARPOPWIDOWCHILISABLECANARYHAKE

19455992419450.9599974368

19465963219460.9553195239

19475928619470.9497765175

19485890819480.9437208632

19495851219490.9373768443

19505810419500.9308405825

19515768919510.9241921789

19525726719520.9174316336

19535683619530.910526906

19545639219540.9034139152

19555592719550.8959644991

19565543519560.8880825363

19575491019570.8796719053

19585435419580.8707646465

19595378719590.861681165

19605220119600.8362730491

19615065419610.811489723

19624984119620.7984652601

19634970219630.7962384454

19645134919640.8226237965

19655470419650.8763717339

19665832119660.9343169767

1967608221897119670.97438362091

1968624213066218384196810.77988605150.9690580359

196961190306641763919690.98027907270.77993692140.9297875705

19705103430668479461736619700.81757741790.78003866110.99864614360.9153971852

19713538530716479241576331711019710.56687653190.78125953810.998187915310.9019029044

1972275773091048011157316168560.81911519720.44179042310.78619391610.99798899980.88851404780.3180152269

1973268413137147480155305165221.1347919730.42999951940.79791942210.98894003460.98523151880.87090822830.4405736671

1974251573209646404153984149121.2285419740.40302141910.81635975180.96652850390.97685129380.78604185340.4769713982

1975230733329845502150836147731.1955519750.36963521890.84693254650.94774114270.95688085620.77871488060.4641632793

1976212303525444499146592144211.164619760.34010989890.89668328420.92685009690.92995755960.76016024460.452147175

1977197463773143872136605142941.0431419770.31633584850.95968562420.91379058970.86660153650.75346581620.4049912451

1978192363918943959133090137570.94703919780.30816552120.99676976290.91560267440.84430290610.72515945390.367680756

1979184933931644093128211129121.0061419790.296262475810.91839370140.81335126530.6806177850.3906262739

1980175463803242546119927117121.1454819800.28109129940.96734154030.88617191890.76079881750.61736334410.444723979

1981175333225339778117963106001.1742219810.28088303620.82035303690.82851846450.74833949740.55874756210.4558820675

198217131253293691511594998011.172219820.27444289580.64424153020.76888629690.73556298490.51663064680.4550978177

198316464194573420111212382981.8473119830.26375738930.49488757760.71235758470.71129141740.43740445940.7172041884

198415572175923089310924469952.3093919840.24946732670.44745141930.64345670780.69302747520.36872067890.8966032667

198514873170552786610595368732.1599519850.23826917220.43379285790.58040865630.67214986710.36228981080.8385843127

198614388166652395510074366962.0869319860.23049935120.42387323230.49894815770.63909841210.35295978070.8102348479

19871352816481218379495966132.5757119870.21672193650.41919320380.45483326740.60240558770.34858468191

19881280115782227228980760652.4356719880.20507521510.40141418250.47326654310.5697220760.31969848720.9456305252

19891224314978244548536354972.2088619890.19613591580.38096449280.50934160920.54153000960.28975805180.8575732516

19901181413019257078204647342.0181719900.18926322870.33113745040.5354397950.52048746140.24953876970.783539296

19911166911553265627945042051.9553119910.18694029250.29384983210.5532482140.50401882850.22165410360.7591343746

19921159811079269347727233021.5908319920.18580285480.28179367180.56099643830.49020192470.17405513680.6176277609

19931137110632275207574925561.3883819930.18216625820.27042425480.57320197450.48054024220.13473195930.5390280738

1994112509860278497450019621.1970819940.18022780790.25078848310.58005457080.47261677440.1034210110.4647572902

1995110959533278527231718260.94512619950.17774466930.24247125850.58011705650.45876815130.09625217440.3669380481

1996112738985273446910717890.85777519960.18059627370.22853291280.5695361480.4384043950.09430182910.3330246806

1997113958664270336527816440.87685419970.18255074410.22036829790.56305846580.4141137960.08665858420.3404319586

1998115948261267446210014800.79774619980.18573877380.21011801810.55703901190.39395304280.07801381060.3097188736

199911998822312650.6868190.06668072320.2666523017

2000124570.6223560.2416250277

Sheet1

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POP

WIDOW

CHILI

SABLEFISH

CANARY

HAKE

FISHING REDUCES LIFETIME EGG PRODUCTION


DIRECT FISHING EFFECTSYield per Recruit and Eggs (Spawning Biomass) per Recruit


Assessment InputsSTOCK STRUCTURE: Spatial limits of demographic unitTOTAL CATCH: total removals due to human activities (due to fishery landings, discarded bycatch, and cryptic mortality due to encounters with fishing gear);SURVEYS: the relative or absolute magnitude of a fish population (by age);LIFE HISTORY: growth, maturation, fecundity, natural mortality, and other characteristics of individual fish.


STOCK ASSESSMENT PROCESS

POPULATION MODEL:(Abundance, mortality)

STOCK STATUS

OPTIMUM YIELD

CATCHLOGBOOKS,OBSERVERS,AGE/SIZE DATA

BIOLOGY AGE, GROWTH, MATURITY

ABUNDANCE TREND RESOURCE SURVEY,FISHERY CPUE, AGE/SIZE DATA

ADVANCED MODELS HABITAT CLIMATE ECOSYSTEM MANMADE STRESS

SOCIOECONOMICS


What is a Stock?A group of individuals of the same species that:inhabit the same geographic region;interbreed when mature;have sufficiently high levels of diffusion/mixingNorthern StockSouthern StockHigh mixing withinLow mixing between


Pillar I - Catch DataFisheries Information SystemCommercial fishing effort, catch, and valueDealer reports Vessel trip reportsRecreational fishing effort and catchTelephone surveysShoreside sampling surveysSize and age structure of catchCommercial catch sampling surveysRecreational catch sampling surveys Electronic dissemination of dataServes stock assessment, economic analysis, and fishery monitoring needs


Fishery ObserversSince 1972 NOAA Fisheries has deployed fishery observers to collect catch and bycatch data from US and foreign commercial fishing and processing vessels.Today, 42 fisheries all around the nation are monitored by observer programs logging over 60,000 observer days at sea.Data support fish stock assessment, fishery monitoring, protected species mortality monitoring, and other conservation and management programs.


Pillar II - Abundance IndexFishery-Independent SurveysCatch/Effort = q * AbundanceSurvey sampling units (effort) is highly standardized;Sampling follows a statistical design;Assert that q is sufficiently constant;Sometimes, q can be measured directly, so survey catch rate can be transformed directly to measure of abundance


Fishery-Independent Surveys10 NOAA ShipsPlus 1768 charter DAS


Fishery CPUE as Abundance IndexFishery Catch = q * Effort * AbundanceSoCatch/Effort = q * Abundance

Unfortunately,Fishing effort is very hard to standardize, so the effective q may not be constant;Fishing tends to occur where abundance is high, not where abundance is average.


Advanced TechnologyAutonomous Underwater VehicleContains cameras, sensors, acousticsReach into habitats inaccessible to other survey tools


Pillar III - Fish Biology / Life HistoryEase: Length > Weight >> Age > Eggs & Maturity >>> Mortality


STOCK ASSESSMENT LOGICEstimating AbundanceHow big must stock have been if:We saw a relative decline of X% per year in the survey index;While Y tons of catch were removed per year;And the stocks biology indicates that natural changes in abundance are only +/-Z% per year


BASIC ASSESSMENT APPROACHESIndex MethodsIs stock abundance:Increasing, decreasing, or stable?Equilibrium MethodsOn average, is fishing mortality: too high, too low, or just right?Dynamic Population MethodsEstimates time series of stock abundance and mortalityForecast stock abundance and catch level that maintains mortality targetCan be biomass-based, but age & size structure provide more detail, especially for forecastingChoice depends on data availability and complexity of management questions


Trend in Survey Abundance IndexLack of fit due to:Sampling variability of the observationsEnvironmental data can improve stratification and adaptive samplingUnknown changes in the calibration, qEnvironmental data can inform about changes in availability of fish to the surveyOther Data in Model:Recruitment index for some yearsProportion at each age in the fisheryTotal catch


INTEGRATED ANALYSISAbility to use various age, length, abundance data to calibrate modelSmoothly transitions from pre-data era, to data-rich era, to forecast.Produces estimates of model uncertainty


MODEL PROCESSESCONSTANT

Assert, Believe!, Hope!! To Be Stable Over TimeTraditional Data Provide Little Information To Estimate VariabilityExamples:Natural MortalitySurvey CatchabilityAverage Spawner-Recruitment RelationshipVARIABLE

Expected To Vary Over TimeData Are Informative About FluctuationsExamples:Fishing MortalityAnnual RecruitmentGrowth and Maturity Changes


PRODUCTIVITYHigh productivity stocks maintain high recruitment levels even as stock abundance declines. They rebuild quickly as fishing mortality is reduced.Low productivity stocks can sustain only low fishing mortality rates. They require multiple generations to rebuild from low biomass levels.Short-term (annual) environmental variability obscures these ecological relationshipsLong-term (decadal) environmental and ecosystem shifts are confounded with relationships


ENVIRONMENTAL DATA &VARIABLE PROCESSESIncluding environmental component in model can:Reduce alias in estimate of biomass linkage caused by long-term environmental patterns;Provide additional information on historical fluctuations during data-poor periods;Provide early indicators of upcoming fluctuations.Similar situation for environmental effects on body growthEcosystem effects are harder!Recruitment = f(biomass, environment, ecosystem) + e


ENVIRONMENTAL DATA &CONSTANT PROCESSESNew Information About Changes In Constant ProcessesNeed Validation Outside ModelEXAMPLES:Predators Affect Natural MortalitySpatial Distribution Affects CatchabilityThermocline Depth Affects CatchabilityPDO Regime Affects Average Recruitment


Fisheries And The Environment

FATEA NOAA Fisheries Oceanographic Program

Supporting NOAAs mission to ensure the sustainable use of US fishery resources under a changing climate


A FATE Ecosystem Indicator Peterson et al.; Northwest Fisheries Science CenterThis function can be used to predict returns of salmon the following year; copepod anomalies from 2001 predict that about 10% of the juvenile salmon that went to sea in spring 2001 will return to spawn in fall 2002.


Sablefish Recruitment VariabilityMichael J. Schirripa and Jim J. ColbertNorthwest Fisheries Science Center, Oregon State University

Recruitment is fit to stock biomass as well as annual deviations in the Spring sea level anomalies. This made possible estimates of current year-class strengths


Chart1

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-0.0847823

0.408314

0.0341029

0.638211

0.181566

0.313869

0.180391

-0.177646

0.0722126

0.600547

0.424761

0.423017

0.289101

0.43457

0.512722

-0.0277958

-0.439369

-0.788165

-0.167588

0.269711

-1.17832

-1.97205

-0.0580758

0.892358

1.01236

0.503645

-0.24085

-1.64832

P < 0.0001R-squared = 0.436

1997 El Nino

2003

1999

Q2 North Sea Level (Z-score)

Rec Dev

Iy = (SL*0.393)-0.016

Sheet1

CV =0.060.63make ENVmake INDEX

YearQ2CoastalSeaLvlNorZ-scoreEst RecruitsyearseasonZ-sealevelyearseasonfleetvaluecvYearQ2CoastalSeaLvlNorZ-Scoredev4SERecruitswt est devnc_run_noenv

19251.457671.43964936.35933192514936.360.2019741.310530.15455-0.319030.5949110113.50.0427656772-0.401794

19261.34367-0.0220110502.5553319261410502.560.2019751.22000-1.641310.1048210.4162715378.90.8253584-0.00669805

19271.384500.501547076.067001927147076.070.2019761.28103-0.430660.1228610.3551215555.40.2977866872-0.0847823

19281.480001.72599-937.72000192814-937.720.2019771.22200-1.601630.5311840.2251722882.30.808068840.408314

19291.406700.786175213.1762011929145213.180.2019781.309890.141880.07369180.2355614344.20.04828873110.0341029

19301.381330.460947341.794672192511.43963981930147341.790.2019791.23900-1.264390.7159880.1624126860.70.661107580.638211

19311.380330.448117425.70867319261-0.02200601931147425.710.2019801.29992-0.055950.3021320.172417265.20.13449639830.181566

19321.449501.334931621.657004192710.50153671932141621.660.2019811.303500.015140.3903440.1478818686.30.103519270.313869

19331.379300.434877512.419805192811.72598561933147512.420.2019821.316670.276330.1116230.1350814006.6-0.01030366670.180391

19341.455671.414001104.187336192910.78617301934141104.190.2019831.371831.37071-0.2827710.157949293.43-0.4872073633-0.177646

19351.372330.345548097.020677193010.46093541935148097.020.2019841.330830.557370.09328510.1239213382.4-0.13277138330.0722126

19361.481001.73881-1021.634008193110.4481140193614-1021.630.2019851.26750-0.699020.6437210.0937722935.20.414731350.600547

19371.439331.204582474.782679193211.33493121937142474.780.2019861.29083-0.236140.3592490.09453716916.60.21301981670.424761

19381.392000.597706446.7120010193310.43486511938146446.710.2019871.27250-0.599830.3781250.08783716878.20.371507450.423017

19391.33900-0.0818410894.1540011193411.413996919391410894.150.2019881.309330.130860.2105620.08768113982.60.05309138670.289101

19401.356000.136139467.6160012193510.34554231940149467.620.2019891.29442-0.165050.3450420.09023915749.30.18204268830.43457

19411.400670.708825719.4573313193611.73880711941145719.460.2019901.308170.107710.4470740.09238817210.90.06317696330.512722

19421.445331.281511971.2986714193711.20457981942141971.300.2019911.26358-0.77671-0.1122790.10879723.420.4485900717-0.0277958

19431.435801.159282771.2788015193810.59769761943142771.280.2019921.330250.54580-0.5286570.160836348.72-0.127728595-0.439369

19441.30733-0.4878513551.430671619391-0.081839519441413551.430.2019931.448002.88168-0.8537980.12584541.65-1.14565144-0.788165

19451.31867-0.3425412600.4053317194010.136125219451412600.410.2019941.30075-0.03941-0.2003470.109328665.880.127292415-0.167588

194618194110.70881691946140.000.2019951.305420.053160.2581380.1124513558.30.08695010830.269711

19471.397000.661806027.1420019194211.28150851947146027.140.2019961.339420.72764-1.123870.154913338.87-0.2069724117-1.17832

19481.581673.02950-9468.9766720194311.1592773194814-9468.980.2019971.399831.92617-1.930290.200631448.4-0.7292612033-1.97205

19491.533002.40552-5385.162002119441-0.4878522194914-5385.160.2019981.331580.57225-0.1292980.183118527.66-0.1392549683-0.0580758

19501.33180-0.1741511498.334802219451-0.342542419501411498.330.2019991.25208-1.004850.8906440.1809823210.50.54800504170.892358

19511.400000.700275775.4000023194610.00000001951145775.400.2020001.309420.132511.336550.2008435213.30.05237098831.01236

19521.376400.397687755.7704024194710.66180491952147755.770.2020011.22950-1.452850.7271640.2660718545.30.743232990.503645

19531.387670.542146810.3393325194813.02950021953146810.340.2020021.23400-1.36358-0.07505360.384898102.180.70433148-0.24085

19541.412300.857974743.2578026194912.40552271954144743.260.2020031.327500.49124-2.48680.88807729.974-0.10395545-1.64832

19551.33900-0.0818410894.154002719501-0.174154019551410894.150.2020041.30050-0.044370.129453610.12945361

19561.420500.963114055.1630028195110.70026921956144055.160.2020051.367801.29074-0.4523573736-0.4523573736

19571.393900.622066287.2754029195210.39768291957146287.280.20

19581.458671.45246852.4453330195310.5421380195814852.450.20

19591.393670.619076306.8553331195410.85797311959146306.860.20

19601.380000.443847453.680003219551-0.08183951960147453.680.20

19611.353000.097669719.3580033195610.96310911961149719.360.20

19621.30183-0.5583714012.9576734195710.622058419621414012.960.20

19631.385000.507957034.1100035195811.45246121963147034.110.20

19641.25333-1.1802118082.7866736195910.619066719641418082.790.200.3200862133

19651.30650-0.4985413621.3590037196010.443840119651413621.360.20

19661.24367-1.3041518893.9553338196110.097660919661418893.960.20

19671.29800-0.6075214334.628003919621-0.558370219671414334.630.20

19681.19839-1.8846822693.3947840196310.507947419681422693.390.20

19691.366890.275748553.885784119641-1.18021081969148553.890.20

19701.18767-2.0221523593.139334219651-0.498536819701423593.140.20

19711.31744-0.3582112702.966894319661-1.304151519711412702.970.20

19721.33156-0.1772911518.847114419671-0.607519119721411518.850.20

19731.18808-2.0168123558.175174519681-1.884678519731423558.180.20

19741.31053-0.4468913283.372060.1295446196910.275736619741413283.370.20

19751.22000-1.6075920879.92000-1.674974719701-2.022152919751420879.920.20

19761.28103-0.8251315758.83506-0.458494819711-0.358213119761415758.840.20

19771.22200-1.5819520712.09200-1.635104919721-0.177288119771420712.090.20

19781.30989-0.4550913336.983780.116805019731-2.016810719781413336.980.20

19791.23900-1.3639819285.55400-1.296245119741-0.446894819791419285.550.20

19801.29992-0.5829414173.79283-0.081985219751-1.607592619801414173.790.20

19811.30350-0.5370013873.10100-0.010555319761-0.825127719811413873.100.20

19821.31667-0.3681912768.233330.251915419771-1.581949719821412768.230.20

19831.371830.339138138.977671.351555519781-0.45508631983148138.980.20

19841.33083-0.1865511579.451670.534295619791-1.363984919841411579.450.20

19851.26750-0.9985716894.00500-0.728145719801-0.582944719851416894.010.20

19861.29083-0.6994114936.01167-0.263045819811-0.537001119861414936.010.20

19871.27250-0.9344716474.43500-0.628485919821-0.368185319871416474.440.20

19881.30933-0.4622113383.602670.1057360198310.339131619881413383.600.20

19891.29442-0.6534614635.31983-0.191616119841-0.186548019891414635.320.20

19901.30817-0.4771713481.502330.082476219851-0.998573519901413481.500.20

19911.26358-1.0487917222.66817-0.806216319861-0.699406219911417222.670.20

19921.33025-0.1940311628.401500.522666419871-0.934466219921411628.400.20

19931.448001.315701747.528002.869806519881-0.46220931993141747.530.20

19941.30075-0.5722614103.86450-0.065366619891-0.653462719941414103.860.20

19951.30542-0.5124313712.265830.027666719901-0.477167719951413712.270.20

19961.33942-0.0765010859.189830.705396819911-1.048790919961410859.190.20

19971.399830.698135789.385671.909686919921-0.19402721997145789.390.20

19981.33158-0.1769311516.516170.5492470199311.315699119981411516.520.20

19991.25208-1.1962418187.67917-1.035457119941-0.572260119991418187.680.20

20001.30942-0.4611413376.609830.107397219951-0.512426720001413376.610.20

20011.22950-1.4857920082.73700-1.485607319961-0.076497220011420082.740.20

20021.23400-1.4280919705.12400-1.3959074199710.698132320021419705.120.20

20031.32750-0.2292911859.165000.467857519981-0.176931920031411859.170.20

20041.30050-0.5754714124.84300-0.070357619991-1.196237620041414124.840.20

20051.3678020.287448477.262971.271197720001-0.4611409

7820011-1.4857888

1.345387920021-1.4280922

8020031-0.2292862

8120041-0.5754655

200510.2874440

Sheet1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Year

Sea Level Z-Score

Sheet2

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Sea Level

Number of Recruits

Sheet3

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Year

Number of Recruits

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

RecDev = 11.37 + (SL*-8.64)P < 0.0001R-squared = 0.436

1997 El Nino

2003

1999

Q2 North Sea Level (m)

Rec Dev

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Sea Level Z-score

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Sea Level Z-score

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

RecDev = (SL*-0.3933)-0.0163P < 0.0001R-squared = 0.436

1997 El Nino

2003

1999

Q2 North Sea Level (Z-score)

Rec Dev

HEREARENEWANDIMPROVEDESTIMATES

X1X2X3Estimated

YearMissingMoApr-MayMay-JunApr&JunQ2

192761.3915

1.384548

19295

1.41151.406714

19324

1.469

1.44956

19334

1.384

1.379392

193861.3995

1.392013

194361.4465

1.435874

19464thru6

DISCUSS

195061.335

1.331822

19525

1.37951.3764

19545

1.41751.412398

195661.43

1.420476

195751.3981.393925

Evan Howell and Jeff Polovina, Pacific Islands Fishery Science Center


1981 cohortSTD Growth rateGrowth yearUsing variables related to oceanic conditions* we can fit growth rates for individual California cohorts and the probability that a cohort will mature after the third ocean winter at sea.

*e.g. Wind Turbulence,Upwelling, Sea Level Height, Sea Surface Temperature.

Proportion maturing after 3 OWBrood year (cohort)CA Chinook Growth and Maturation Vary with the EnvironmentB. Wells, C. Grimes, J. Field, C. Reiss; Southwest Fisheries Science Center


Chart3

-0.068218606-0.172669218

0.07633170940.0727257414

-0.284557147-0.370439794

0.02983462760.1119483415

Predicted

MODELEDGROWTHRATE

these are built from age and environment models uses data title modeledgrowthrate.txt

systembroodyrgrowthyr_TYPE__FREQ__STAT_GROWTHRATEannuluswidth

REDW1978197803MEAN0-0.142239811

REDW1978197903MEAN-0.051906354-0.105150937

REDW1978198003MEAN-0.021589851-0.453028729

REDW1978198103MEAN0-0.113273188

REDW1978198201MEAN0-0.157317646

REDW19791979018MEAN00.0248490778

REDW19791980017MEAN0.05428576770.0647274948

REDW19791981017MEAN0.02169024790.0234418595

REDW1979198201MEAN00.1063268124

REDW19801980014MEAN00.0529601889

REDW19801981015MEAN0.08424539020.0414290634

REDW1980198209MEAN-0.121953631-0.071984284

REDW1980198302MEAN0-0.291723188

REDW19811981016MEAN0-0.127639811

REDW19811982016MEAN0.0458598939-0.06690927

REDW19811983010MEAN-0.049794878-0.176478729

REDW19811984010MEAN00.0574968124

REDW19821982037MEAN00.0052574862

REDW19821983037MEAN0.0090959436-0.038727513

REDW19821984036MEAN0.04622625310.1894629379

REDW1983198308MEAN0-0.058502311

REDW1983198408MEAN-0.0041799980.01095323

REDW1983198503MEAN0.0072002434-0.055795395

REDW1983198603MEAN00.1359268124

REDW19841984037MEAN0-0.003772244

REDW19841985035MEAN0.00905221540.1026814443

REDW19841986035MEAN-0.0073264860.0626969855

REDW1984198702MEAN0-0.093823188

REDW19851985011MEAN00.0491783707

REDW19851986011MEAN0.04131362580.0238611846

REDW1985198705MEAN-0.005170442-0.157908729

REDW1985198804MEAN0-0.042573188

REDW19861986029MEAN00.0339912234

REDW19861987028MEAN0.0194897382-0.01225927

REDW19861988027MEAN0.018299464-0.084162062

REDW1986198906MEAN0-0.023123188

REDW19871987022MEAN0-0.039089811

REDW19871988022MEAN0.0229537236-0.027806997

REDW19871989019MEAN-0.012025299-0.133028729

REDW1987199002MEAN0-0.101773188

REDW1987199102MEAN0-0.005117646

REDW19881988022MEAN00.0716647343

REDW19881989021MEAN-0.039220363-0.111493794

REDW19881990016MEAN-0.025691567-0.069491229

REDW19881991014MEAN00.1039053838

REDW19891989014MEAN00.0211101889

REDW19891990015MEAN-0.062415424-0.18006427

REDW19891991015MEAN-0.035518575-0.004862062

REDW1989199206MEAN0-0.071806521

REDW1989199301MEAN0-0.016517646

REDW1990199005MEAN0-0.081339811

REDW1990199105MEAN0.0083186824-0.03776427

REDW1990199203MEAN0.0370869795-0.139128729

REDW1990199301MEAN0-0.219673188

REDW1991199104MEAN00.0331601889

REDW1991199204MEAN0.09078103670.06961573

REDW1991199302MEAN-0.0299615220.2870712712

REDW1992199202MEAN00.4269101889

REDW1992199302MEAN0.010485060.28536573

Mill1977197704MEAN0.0473106859-0.060529218

Mill1977197804MEAN-0.377576759

Mill1977197904MEAN-0.081623128

Mill1977198004MEAN0.06838018660.0110566748

Mill19781978029MEAN-0.020590425

Mill19781979029MEAN-0.095842276

Mill19781980029MEAN0.0953178719-0.022018817

Mill1978198104MEAN0.09401666970.1226316748

Mill1978198201MEAN00.1765126491

Mill19791979031MEAN-0.104675186MILL

Mill19791980031MEAN0.12344074130.1277587252

Mill19791981029MEAN-0.0216201020.0463501481

Mill1979198204MEAN0.11161089240.1567816748

Mill19801980020MEAN0.13883422850.0836607822

Mill19801981020MEAN0.07273386420.1122432414

Mill19801982018MEAN-0.10507703-0.176987017

Mill1980198303MEAN-0.107897292-0.374534992

Mill19811981040MEAN-0.068218606-0.172669218

Mill19811982040MEAN0.07633170940.0727257414

Mill19811983036MEAN-0.284557147-0.370439794

Mill19811984012MEAN0.02983462760.1119483415

Mill19821982055MEAN-0.061940082-0.113909672

Mill19821983055MEAN-0.124995997-0.14376585

Mill19821984053MEAN0.08878833580.1862377213

Mill1982198505MEAN0.11536346590.2953116748

Mill19831983026MEAN-0.132912897-0.135192679

Mill19831984026MEAN0.13363421440.1386847798

Mill19831985026MEAN-0.0146786050.1045826415

Mill1983198601MEAN0.0549146185-0.067268325

Mill19841984044MEAN0.0846962760.1509753277

Mill19841985044MEAN0.04777859460.1371391505

Mill19841986037MEAN0.0355019160.0839478182

Mill1984198708MEAN0.03699600720.0124191748

Mill19851985078MEAN0.08547562890.1673611668

Mill19851986078MEAN0.09848037840.1122104209

Mill19851987073MEAN-0.005362946-0.065741963

Mill1985198808MEAN0.0227380822-0.063268325

Mill19861986013MEAN0.09969622830.2570265514

Mill19861987013MEAN0.07079613560.014438626

Mill1986198809MEAN0.0441878573-0.146431461

Mill1987198707MEAN0.0583871408-0.008118504

Mill1987198806MEAN0.0281363044-0.098343425

Mill1987198906MEAN0.0220883385-0.277081461

Mill1987199004MEAN-0.001799888-0.276843325

Mill1987199101MEAN0-0.349587351

Mill19881988015MEAN0.14832635650.0473957822

Mill19881989015MEAN0.0145576077-0.043476759

Mill19881990015MEAN-0.072310221-0.283218128

Mill1988199106MEAN0.08838970760.1829483415

Mill19891989023MEAN0.1254959349-0.015939

Mill19891990023MEAN-0.05120175-0.246924585

Mill19891991020MEAN0.03455688760.2832668722

Mill1989199203MEAN0.0262808636-0.179534992

Mill1989199301MEAN0-0.073387351

Mill1990199007MEAN0.1186822214-0.198218504

Mill1990199107MEAN0.11301549310.0627232414

Mill1990199205MEAN-0.338433556-0.136918128

Mill1990199303MEAN-0.113357541-0.165268325

Mill19911991018MEAN0.0588278429-0.047598662

Mill19911992018MEAN-0.100848049-0.102815648

Mill19911993018MEAN-0.095781176-0.085614794

Mill1991199405MEAN0.09478457160.3679316748

Mill19921992013MEAN-0.120034871-0.147181141

Mill19921993013MEAN-0.0324058560.0898617029

Mill19921994012MEAN-0.072401030.1287102056

Mill19931993028MEAN-0.009283176-0.006647075

Mill19931994028MEAN0.02659110410.1173518128

Mill19931995026MEAN-0.158640567-0.119713512

Mill19931996012MEAN0.0658169070.0740733415

Mill19941994024MEAN0.01526921650.1886999489

Mill19941995024MEAN-0.001522987-0.072401759

Mill19941996024MEAN-0.004488167-0.124381461

Mill1994199706MEAN-0.1276829240.0862816748

Mill19951995027MEAN-0.047689481-0.083378292

Mill19951996027MEAN0.06211185180.0963602784

Mill19951997024MEAN-0.169963578-0.060039794

Mill1995199806MEAN0.0452623045-0.016718325

Mill1995199901MEAN0-0.124587351

Mill19961996022MEAN0.054078525-0.037690581

Mill19961997022MEAN-0.120210082-0.054904031

Mill19961998020MEAN-0.117676376-0.182558128

Mill1996199908MEAN0.17805244960.0357441748

Mill19971997037MEAN-0.065154709-0.066160975

Mill19971998037MEAN0.01679389580.0116529711

Mill19971999035MEAN0.0762889529-0.059658128

Mill1997200002MEAN0.04911572360.0849816748

Mill19981998025MEAN-0.068102266-0.072084218

Mill19981999025MEAN0.17833002260.0718672414

Mill19982000014MEAN-0.0063463030.077816158

Mill1998200103MEAN0.0836869670.0292650081

Mill19991999026MEAN-0.147807828-0.064358064

Mill19992000026MEAN0.08849352630.084188626

Mill19992001017MEAN-0.0257116080.1180842252

Mill2000200001MEAN-0.091001162-0.059404218

Mill2000200101MEAN0.0526954840.4391232414

MODELEDGROWTHRATE

00

00

00

00

Predicted

1980

00

00

00

00

Predicted

00

00

00

00

Predicted

1982

00

00

00

00

Predicted

1983

00

00

00

00

Predicted

1984

00

00

00

00

Predicted

1985

00

00

00

Predicted

1986

00

00

00

00

00

Predicted

1987

00

00

00

00

Predicted

1988

00

00

00

00

00

Predicted

1989

00

00

00

00

Predicted

1990

00

00

00

00

Predicted

1991

00

00

00

Predicted

1992

00

00

00

00

Predicted

1994

00

00

00

00

00

Predicted

1995

00

00

00

00

Predicted

00

00

00

00

Predicted

1997

0-0.142239811

-0.051906354-0.105150937

-0.021589851-0.453028729

0-0.113273188

0-0.157317646

Predicted

1978

00.0248490778

0.05428576770.0647274948

0.02169024790.0234418595

00.1063268124

Predicted

1979

00.0529601889

0.08424539020.0414290634

-0.121953631-0.071984284

0-0.291723188

Predicted

1980

00

00

00

00

Predicted

1981

00.0052574862

0.0090959436-0.038727513

0.04622625310.1894629379

Predicted

1982

0-0.058502311

-0.0041799980.01095323

0.0072002434-0.055795395

00.1359268124

Predicted

1983

0-0.003772244

0.00905221540.1026814443

-0.0073264860.0626969855

0-0.093823188

Predicted

1984

00

00

00

00

Predicted

1985

00.0339912234

0.0194897382-0.01225927

0.018299464-0.084162062

0-0.023123188

Predicted

1986

0-0.039089811

0.0229537236-0.027806997

-0.012025299-0.133028729

0-0.101773188

0-0.005117646

Predicted

1987

00.0716647343

-0.039220363-0.111493794

-0.025691567-0.069491229

00.1039053838

Predicted

1988

00

00

00

00

00

Predicted

1989

0-0.081339811

0.0083186824-0.03776427

0.0370869795-0.139128729

0-0.219673188

Predicted

1990

00.0331601889

0.09078103670.06961573

-0.0299615220.2870712712

Predicted

1991

00

00

00

00

Predicted

1992

00

00

00

00

Predicted

1997

MBD000301FD.xls

Chart8

-0.053314819-0.08482216

0.0659507970.0863556233

0.12585564850.0980796919

0.10523222520.0338525224

Predicted

MODELEDGROWTHRATE

these are built from age and environment models uses data title modeledgrowthrate.txt

systembroodyrgrowthyr_TYPE__FREQ__STAT_GROWTHRATEannuluswidth

REDW1978197803MEAN0-0.142239811

REDW1978197903MEAN-0.051906354-0.105150937

REDW1978198003MEAN-0.021589851-0.453028729

REDW1978198103MEAN0-0.113273188

REDW1978198201MEAN0-0.157317646

REDW19791979018MEAN00.0248490778

REDW19791980017MEAN0.05428576770.0647274948

REDW19791981017MEAN0.02169024790.0234418595

REDW1979198201MEAN00.1063268124

REDW19801980014MEAN00.0529601889

REDW19801981015MEAN0.08424539020.0414290634

REDW1980198209MEAN-0.121953631-0.071984284

REDW1980198302MEAN0-0.291723188

REDW19811981016MEAN0-0.127639811

REDW19811982016MEAN0.0458598939-0.06690927

REDW19811983010MEAN-0.049794878-0.176478729

REDW19811984010MEAN00.0574968124

REDW19821982037MEAN00.0052574862

REDW19821983037MEAN0.0090959436-0.038727513

REDW19821984036MEAN0.04622625310.1894629379

REDW1983198308MEAN0-0.058502311

REDW1983198408MEAN-0.0041799980.01095323

REDW1983198503MEAN0.0072002434-0.055795395

REDW1983198603MEAN00.1359268124

REDW19841984037MEAN0-0.003772244

REDW19841985035MEAN0.00905221540.1026814443

REDW19841986035MEAN-0.0073264860.0626969855

REDW1984198702MEAN0-0.093823188

REDW19851985011MEAN00.0491783707

REDW19851986011MEAN0.04131362580.0238611846

REDW1985198705MEAN-0.005170442-0.157908729

REDW1985198804MEAN0-0.042573188

REDW19861986029MEAN00.0339912234

REDW19861987028MEAN0.0194897382-0.01225927

REDW19861988027MEAN0.018299464-0.084162062

REDW1986198906MEAN0-0.023123188

REDW19871987022MEAN0-0.039089811

REDW19871988022MEAN0.0229537236-0.027806997

REDW19871989019MEAN-0.012025299-0.133028729

REDW1987199002MEAN0-0.101773188

REDW1987199102MEAN0-0.005117646

REDW19881988022MEAN00.0716647343

REDW19881989021MEAN-0.039220363-0.111493794

REDW19881990016MEAN-0.025691567-0.069491229

REDW19881991014MEAN00.1039053838

REDW19891989014MEAN00.0211101889

REDW19891990015MEAN-0.062415424-0.18006427

REDW19891991015MEAN-0.035518575-0.004862062

REDW1989199206MEAN0-0.071806521

REDW1989199301MEAN0-0.016517646

REDW1990199005MEAN0-0.081339811

REDW1990199105MEAN0.0083186824-0.03776427

REDW1990199203MEAN0.0370869795-0.139128729

REDW1990199301MEAN0-0.219673188

REDW1991199104MEAN00.0331601889

REDW1991199204MEAN0.09078103670.06961573

REDW1991199302MEAN-0.0299615220.2870712712

REDW1992199202MEAN00.4269101889

REDW1992199302MEAN0.010485060.28536573

Mill1977197704MEAN0.0307706327-0.07326716

Mill1977197804MEAN-0.363088377

Mill1977197904MEAN-0.025436865-0.061359594

Mill1977198004MEAN0.19612126330.0156441891

Mill19781978030MEAN-0.043975493

Mill19781979030MEAN0.0273365159-0.07606171

Mill19781980030MEAN0.0349128927-0.033684594

Mill1978198105MEAN0.24624148080.1445191891

Mill1978198201MEAN00.143972972

Mill19791979031MEAN-0.041582573-0.117413127MILL

Mill19791980031MEAN0.18427876610.1422471071

Mill19791981029MEAN0.1464047930.066613682

Mill1979198204MEAN-0.1931803720.1613691891

Mill19801980021MEAN-0.0590992490.0665197451

Mill19801981021MEAN0.17395050.139225909

Mill19801982019MEAN-0.213914002-0.167313541

Mill1980198304MEAN-0.232377421-0.471155811

Mill1980198401MEAN00.076172972

Mill19811981041MEAN-0.076566757-0.181947038

Mill19811982042MEAN0.00325745840.078775909

Mill19811983038MEAN-0.294971615-0.333450383

Mill19811984014MEAN0.05986745410.0521334748

Mill19821982056MEAN-0.087856342-0.129143945

Mill19821983055MEAN-0.074018398-0.129277468

Mill19821984053MEAN0.08580865790.2065012552

Mill1982198505MEAN-0.0136546630.2998991891

Mill19831983027MEAN-0.097973945-0.149579197

Mill19831984027MEAN0.00799326750.1535005122

Mill19831985027MEAN0.06131183170.123317258

Mill1983198602MEAN-0.093608849-0.415280811

Mill1983198701MEAN00.034772972

Mill19841984049MEAN0.04300223220.1243721261

Mill19841985049MEAN0.04336198060.1262340722

Mill19841986042MEAN-0.0529883390.0518439776

Mill19841987013MEAN-0.069717529-0.225680811

Mill19851985079MEAN0.10338761490.15480341

Mill19851986079MEAN0.07085911010.1288002309

Mill19851987074MEAN-0.000435199-0.046606215

Mill1985198809MEAN0.0322843499-0.1375697

Mill19861986014MEAN0.07377428560.2384506975

Mill19861987014MEAN0.03407631830.0198473376

Mill19861988010MEAN0.099175427-0.104114594

Mill1986198901MEAN-0.046581149-0.774880811

Mill1987198707MEAN0.0813385474-0.020856445

Mill1987198806MEAN0.1069398037-0.083855043

Mill1987198906MEAN0.0172217703-0.256817927

Mill1987199004MEAN-0.136537909-0.272255811

Mill1987199101MEAN0-0.382127028

Mill19881988015MEAN0.14173151540.0346578404

Mill19881989015MEAN-0.02384533-0.028988377

Mill19881990015MEAN-0.055807584-0.262954594

Mill1988199106MEAN0.06464610160.1875358557

Mill19891989023MEAN0.1003212427-0.028676942

Mill19891990023MEAN-0.097358275-0.232436203

Mill19891991020MEAN0.04941958820.3035304062

Mill1989199203MEAN-0.280056603-0.174947478

Mill1989199301MEAN0-0.105927028

Mill1990199008MEAN0.0863025688-0.19214216

Mill1990199108MEAN0.08379385660.0089991233

Mill1990199206MEAN-0.205178229-0.098867927

Mill1990199304MEAN-0.097322382-0.108555811

Mill1990199401MEAN0-0.590627028

Mill19911991018MEAN0.0417652709-0.060336604

Mill19911992018MEAN-0.066999032-0.088327266

Mill19911993018MEAN-0.063659928-0.06535126

Mill1991199405MEAN0.17601531460.3725191891

Mill19921992015MEAN-0.077432227-0.137095493

Mill19921993015MEAN0.02166897630.1179982899

Mill19921994014MEAN0.11285568820.1127154062

Mill1992199502MEAN-0.119254123-0.377130811

Mill1992199601MEAN0-0.588527028

Mill19931993028MEAN0.0530691601-0.019385017

Mill19931994028MEAN0.1539743750.1318401947

Mill19931995026MEAN-0.089516227-0.099449978

Mill19931996012MEAN0.06155410360.0786608557

Mill19941994024MEAN0.01113286450.175962007

Mill19941995024MEAN0.022393542-0.057913377

Mill19941996024MEAN0.0877647121-0.104117927

Mill1994199706MEAN0.00413470740.0908691891

Mill19951995027MEAN-0.02158325-0.096116234

Mill19951996027MEAN0.12584423350.1108486603

Mill19951997024MEAN-0.008757875-0.03977626

Mill1995199806MEAN-0.133746372-0.012130811

Mill1995199901MEAN0-0.157127028

Mill19961996022MEAN0.0348191006-0.050428523

Mill19961997022MEAN-0.085507233-0.040415649

Mill19961998020MEAN-0.073691627-0.162294594

Mill1996199908MEAN0.06613723930.0403316891

Mill19971997037MEAN-0.092716333-0.078898916

Mill19971998037MEAN0.11189111520.026141353

Mill19971999035MEAN0.005869756-0.039394594

Mill1997200002MEAN0.01205021560.0895691891

Mill19981998025MEAN-0.053314819-0.08482216

Mill19981999025MEAN0.0659507970.0863556233

Mill19982000014MEAN0.12585564850.0980796919

Mill1998200103MEAN0.10523222520.0338525224

Mill19991999026MEAN-0.113670687-0.077096006

Mill19992000026MEAN0.06759367070.0986770079

Mill19992001017MEAN0.0112301380.1383477591

Mill2000200001MEAN0.0777427096-0.07214216

Mill2000200101MEAN0.18349133560.4536116233

MODELEDGROWTHRATE

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1981

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1982

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1983

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1984

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1985

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1986

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1987

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1988

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1990

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1991

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1992

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1994

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1995

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1996

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1997

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1978

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1979

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1980

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1981

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1982

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1983

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1984

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1985

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1986

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1987

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1988

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1989

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1990

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1991

Chart1

0.8333333330.8438591269

0.6666666670.596626707

0.9056603770.8659000356

0.9615384620.8592621374

0.7837837840.8494425575

0.8904109590.8326431925

10.8153035899

0.3333333330.8573579599

0.60.834581045

0.850.8761986272

0.40.5302070585

0.7222222220.6783999191

10.7865543135

0.5384615380.6787403856

0.750.7955721504

0.750.7447664222

0.60.652641875

0.9428571430.9539767356

Observed

predicted

Sheet1

GrowthZonebroodyrratio3_totratio4_totratio5_totratio3_no_2predRESIDpred2RESIDbroodyrLengthOceanTotalLengthReturnYrOceanTotalGrowthZoneGROUPyearBPrin1Prin2Prin3Prin4Prin5predRESIDbrood year

319800.750.1500.8333333330.60444785380.2288854792896.9772941217.4227058851978914.431977219773.6110910003-1.370984850.5756061557-0.3593327-0.750534699

319810.60.300.6666666670.56335201010.1033146569896.9772941230.1227058851978927.13197821978

319820.8727272730.09090909100.9056603770.86975389280.0359064842896.9772941242.8227058851978939.831979219791.6128470721-0.4584376181.7295064991-2.0723232931.4636383264

319830.9615384620.03846153800.9615384620.7926701970.168868265896.97729412-7.977294115197888931980219803.1081024303-0.7653210474.97356965980.4908464317-0.373348483

319840.6590909090.18181818200.7837837840.70884284760.0749409364896.97729412-33.377294121978863.63914.4198133219813.9024006468-1.4680125511.77458825471.2139847993-0.406521039886.6488238427.7511761651978

319850.8333333330.10256410300.8904109590.73389151790.1565194411896.97729412-33.377294121978863.63927.1198133219813.9024006468-1.4680125511.77458825471.2139847993-0.406521039886.6488238440.4511761651978

319860.6923076920010.84083460020.1591653998896.9772941242.8227058851978939.83939.8198133219813.9024006468-1.4680125511.77458825471.2139847993-0.406521039886.6488238453.1511761651978

319870.3333333330.50.1666666670.3333333330.7581486773-0.424815344896.97729412-7.97729411519788893889198133219813.9024006468-1.4680125511.77458825471.2139847993-0.406521039886.648823842.35117616481978

319880.60.400.60.6638342067-0.063834207896.9772941268.2227058851978965.23863.6198133219813.9024006468-1.4680125511.77458825471.2139847993-0.406521039886.64882384-23.048823841978

319890.7391304350.0869565220.0434782610.850.8747640289-0.024764029896.9772941268.2227058851978965.23863.6198133219813.9024006468-1.4680125511.77458825471.2139847993-0.406521039886.64882384-23.048823841978

319900.2857142860.42857142900.40.5133631394-0.113363139896.97729412-33.377294121978863.63939.8198133219813.9024006468-1.4680125511.77458825471.2139847993-0.406521039886.6488238453.1511761651978

319910.7222222220.27777777800.7222222220.70494942330.0172727987896.97729412-7.97729411519788893889198133219813.9024006468-1.4680125511.77458825471.2139847993-0.406521039886.648823842.35117616481978

319920.9230769230010.99152822040.0084717796896.97729412-160.37729411978736.63965.2198133219813.9024006468-1.4680125511.77458825471.2139847993-0.406521039886.6488238478.5511761651978

319930.50.42857142900.5384615380.6819552582-0.14349372896.9772941242.8227058851978939.83965.2198133219813.9024006468-1.4680125511.77458825471.2139847993-0.406521039886.6488238478.5511761651978

319940.750.2500.750.8715222475-0.121522247896.97729412-33.377294121978863.63863.6198133219813.9024006468-1.4680125511.77458825471.2139847993-0.406521039886.64882384-23.048823841978

319950.6666666670.1851851850.0370370370.750.8113213249-0.061321325896.97729412-7.97729411519788893889198133219813.9024006468-1.4680125511.77458825471.2139847993-0.406521039886.648823842.35117616481978

319960.5454545450.36363636400.60.6667609713-0.066760971896.9772941217.4227058851978914.43736.6198133219813.9024006468-1.4680125511.77458825471.2139847993-0.406521039886.64882384-150.04882381978

319970.8918918920.05405405400.9428571430.87632740070.0665297423896.97729412-7.97729411519788893939.8198133219813.9024006468-1.4680125511.77458825471.2139847993-0.406521039886.6488238453.1511761651978

896.97729412-33.377294121978863.63863.6198133219813.9024006468-1.4680125511.77458825471.2139847993-0.406521039886.64882384-23.048823841978

896.9772941217.4227058851978914.43889198133219813.9024006468-1.4680125511.77458825471.2139847993-0.406521039886.648823842.35117616481978

896.97729412-33.377294121978863.63914.4198133219813.9024006468-1.4680125511.77458825471.2139847993-0.406521039886.6488238427.7511761651978

896.97729412-122.27729411978774.73889198133219813.9024006468-1.4680125511.77458825471.2139847993-0.406521039886.648823842.35117616481978

896.97729412-109.57729411978787.43863.6198133219813.9024006468-1.4680125511.77458825471.2139847993-0.406521039886.64882384-23.048823841978

896.97729412-109.57729411978787.43914.4198133219813.9024006468-1.4680125511.77458825471.2139847993-0.406521039886.6488238427.7511761651978

896.9772941268.2227058851978965.23863.6198133219813.9024006468-1.4680125511.77458825471.2139847993-0.406521039886.64882384-23.048823841978

918.5839363621.2160636381979939.83774.7198133219813.9024006468-1.4680125511.77458825471.2139847993-0.406521039886.64882384-111.94882381978

918.58393636-105.78393641979812.83787.4198133219813.9024006468-1.4680125511.77458825471.2139847993-0.406521039886.64882384-99.248823841978

918.58393636-42.283936361979876.331978884787.4198133219813.9024006468-1.4680125511.77458825471.2139847993-0.406521039886.64882384-99.248823841978

918.58393636-42.283936361979876.331979922965.2198133219813.9024006468-1.4680125511.77458825471.2139847993-0.406521039886.6488238478.5511761651978

918.5839363646.6160636381979965.231980854939.819823321982-3.061495587-2.4986255020.35636278710.28747028471.8317292433911.9122024327.8877975731979

918.58393636-29.58393636197988931981826812.819823321982-3.061495587-2.4986255020.35636278710.28747028471.8317292433911.91220243-99.112202431979

lastfulllastseason918.58393636-4.1839363621979914.431982901876.319823321982-3.061495587-2.4986255020.35636278710.28747028471.8317292433911.91220243-35.612202431979

0.83333333318lastf0.843859126919800.8113968542918.58393636-54.983936361979863.631983909876.319823321982-3.061495587-2.4986255020.35636278710.28747028471.8317292433911.91220243-35.612202431979

0.66666666736lastf0.59662670719810.723983858918.58393636122.8160636419791041.431984889965.219823321982-3.061495587-2.4986255020.35636278710.28747028471.8317292433911.9122024353.2877975731979

0.90566037753lastf0.865900035619820.8602446404918.5839363621.2160636381979939.83198589188919823321982-3.061495587-2.4986255020.35636278710.28747028471.8317292433911.91220243-22.912202431979

0.96153846226lastf0.859262137419830.7888256906918.5839363672.0160636381979990.631986847914.419823321982-3.061495587-2.4986255020.35636278710.28747028471.8317292433911.912202432.48779757261979

0.78378378437lastf0.849442557519840.7983044622918.5839363646.6160636381979965.231987787863.619823321982-3.061495587-2.4986255020.35636278710.28747028471.8317292433911.91220243-48.312202431979

0.89041095973lastf0.832643192519850.831729364918.5839363621.2160636381979939.8319888951041.419823321982-3.061495587-2.4986255020.35636278710.28747028471.8317292433911.91220243129.487797571979

19lastf0.815303589919860.8326087662918.5839363646.6160636381979965.231989905939.819823321982-3.061495587-2.4986255020.35636278710.28747028471.8317292433911.9122024327.8877975731979

0.3333333336lastf0.857357959919870.8662496111918.5839363672.0160636381979990.631990921990.619823321982-3.061495587-2.4986255020.35636278710.28747028471.8317292433911.9122024378.6877975731979

0.615lastf0.83458104519880.820812507918.58393636-29.58393636197988931991785965.219823321982-3.061495587-2.4986255020.35636278710.28747028471.8317292433911.9122024353.2877975731979

0.8520lastf0.876198627219890.8113051894918.5839363621.2160636381979939.831992851939.819823321982-3.061495587-2.4986255020.35636278710.28747028471.8317292433911.9122024327.8877975731979

0.45lastf0.530207058519900.7532478508918.5839363646.6160636381979965.231993865965.219823321982-3.061495587-2.4986255020.35636278710.28747028471.8317292433911.9122024353.2877975731979

0.72222222218lastf0.678399919119910.8265420771918.5839363621.2160636381979939.831994869990.619823321982-3.061495587-2.4986255020.35636278710.28747028471.8317292433911.9122024378.6877975731979

112lastf0.786554313519920.7862216322918.58393636-29.5839363619798893199585588919823321982-3.061495587-2.4986255020.35636278710.28747028471.8317292433911.91220243-22.912202431979

0.53846153826lastf0.678740385619930.77255327918.58393636-4.1839363621979914.431996824939.819823321982-3.061495587-2.4986255020.35636278710.28747028471.8317292433911.9122024327.8877975731979

0.7524lastf0.795572150419940.7956284437918.58393636-42.283936361979876.331997867965.219823321982-3.061495587-2.4986255020.35636278710.28747028471.8317292433911.9122024353.2877975731979

0.7524lastf0.744766422219950.6765641851918.58393636-54.983936361979863.631998909939.819823321982-3.061495587-2.4986255020.35636278710.28747028471.8317292433911.9122024327.8877975731979

0.620lastf0.65264187519960.8001912248918.58393636-4.1839363621979914.43199992388919823321982-3.061495587-2.4986255020.35636278710.28747028471.8317292433911.91220243-22.912202431979

0.94285714335lastf0.953976735619970.7784210805918.58393636-29.5839363619798893914.419823321982-3.061495587-2.4986255020.35636278710.28747028471.8317292433911.912202432.48779757261979

864.45699804-64.356998041980800.13876.319823321982-3.061495587-2.4986255020.35636278710.28747028471.8317292433911.91220243-35.612202431979

864.45699804-102.45699819807623863.619823321982-3.061495587-2.4986255020.35636278710.28747028471.8317292433911.91220243-48.312202431979

864.45699804-26.256998041980838.23914.419823321982-3.061495587-2.4986255020.35636278710.28747028471.8317292433911.912202432.48779757261979

864.4569980449.9430019611980914.4388919823321982-3.061495587-2.4986255020.35636278710.28747028471.8317292433911.91220243-22.912202431979

864.45699804-127.8569981980736.63800.119833321983-3.6826849581.92549775564.5415214923-0.5999048120.6667192177859.57415505-59.474155051980

864.45699804-0.8569980391980863.6376219833321983-3.6826849581.92549775564.5415214923-0.5999048120.6667192177859.57415505-97.574155051980

864.45699804240.4430019619801104.93838.219833321983-3.6826849581.92549775564.5415214923-0.5999048120.6667192177859.57415505-21.374155051980

864.45699804-204.0569981980660.43914.419833321983-3.6826849581.92549775564.5415214923-0.5999048120.6667192177859.5741550554.8258449541980

864.45699804-38.956998041980825.53736.619833321983-3.6826849581.92549775564.5415214923-0.5999048120.6667192177859.57415505-122.9741551980

864.45699804-0.8569980391980863.63863.619833321983-3.6826849581.92549775564.5415214923-0.5999048120.6667192177859.574155054.0258449541980

864.45699804-127.8569981980736.631104.919833321983-3.6826849581.92549775564.5415214923-0.5999048120.6667192177859.57415505245.325844951980

864.4569980475.3430019611980939.83660.419833321983-3.6826849581.92549775564.5415214923-0.5999048120.6667192177859.57415505-199.1741551980

864.45699804-0.8569980391980863.63825.519833321983-3.6826849581.92549775564.5415214923-0.5999048120.6667192177859.57415505-34.074155051980

864.45699804-77.056998041980787.43863.619833321983-3.6826849581.92549775564.5415214923-0.5999048120.6667192177859.574155054.0258449541980

864.45699804253.1430019619801117.63736.619833321983-3.6826849581.92549775564.5415214923-0.5999048120.6667192177859.57415505-122.9741551980

815.71307452-53.7130745219817623939.819833321983-3.6826849581.92549775564.5415214923-0.5999048120.6667192177859.5741550580.2258449541980

815.71307452-2.9130745211981812.83863.619833321983-3.6826849581.92549775564.5415214923-0.5999048120.6667192177859.574155054.0258449541980

815.7130745260.5869254791981876.33787.419833321983-3.6826849581.92549775564.5415214923-0.5999048120.6667192177859.57415505-72.174155051980

815.71307452-53.71307452198176231117.619833321983-3.6826849581.92549775564.5415214923-0.5999048120.6667192177859.57415505258.025844951980

815.71307452-104.51307451981711.23762198433219840.94877106281.5426699503-0.425542315-0.920347521-0.883704834849.14043731-87.140437311981

815.71307452-2.9130745211981812.83812.8198433219840.94877106281.5426699503-0.425542315-0.920347521-0.883704834849.14043731-36.340437311981

815.713074529.78692547931981825.53876.3198433219840.94877106281.5426699503-0.425542315-0.920347521-0.883704834849.1404373127.159562691981

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889.8537816149.946218391984939.83914.419873321987-1.104873675-0.666194137-0.890509852-0.349028768-0.717033017882.5515965131.8484034921984

889.8537816137.246218391984927.13863.619873321987-1.104873675-0.666194137-0.890509852-0.349028768-0.717033017882.55159651-18.951596511984

889.85378161-216.75378161984673.13863.619873321987-1.104873675-0.666194137-0.890509852-0.349028768-0.717033017882.55159651-18.951596511984

889.85378161-26.253781611984863.63901.719873321987-1.104873675-0.666194137-0.890509852-0.349028768-0.717033017882.5515965119.1484034921984

889.85378161-26.253781611984863.63939.819873321987-1.104873675-0.666194137-0.890509852-0.349028768-0.717033017882.5515965157.2484034921984

885.241376823.758623184819858893927.119873321987-1.104873675-0.666194137-0.890509852-0.349028768-0.717033017882.5515965144.5484034921984

885.24137682-21.641376821985863.63673.119873321987-1.104873675-0.666194137-0.890509852-0.349028768-0.717033017882.55159651-209.45159651984

885.241376823.758623184819858893863.619873321987-1.104873675-0.666194137-0.890509852-0.349028768-0.717033017882.55159651-18.951596511984

885.2413768279.9586231851985965.23863.619873321987-1.104873675-0.666194137-0.890509852-0.349028768-0.717033017882.55159651-18.951596511984

885.24137682206.9586231819851092.23889198833219880.5116378754-0.283525375-0.638022355-0.26541821-1.606162442874.3383401414.6616598631985

885.241376823.758623184819858893863.6198833219880.5116378754-0.283525375-0.638022355-0.26541821-1.606162442874.33834014-10.738340141985

885.2413768216.4586231851985901.73889198833219880.5116378754-0.283525375-0.638022355-0.26541821-1.606162442874.3383401414.6616598631985

885.24137682-8.9413768151985876.33965.2198833219880.5116378754-0.283525375-0.638022355-0.26541821-1.606162442874.3383401490.8616598631985

885.24137682-72.441376821985812.831092.2198833219880.5116378754-0.283525375-0.638022355-0.26541821-1.606162442874.33834014217.861659861985

885.2413768229.1586231851985914.43889198833219880.5116378754-0.283525375-0.638022355-0.26541821-1.606162442874.3383401414.6616598631985

885.24137682-21.641376821985863.63901.7198833219880.5116378754-0.283525375-0.638022355-0.26541821-1.606162442874.3383401427.3616598631985

885.2413768292.6586231851985977.93876.3198833219880.5116378754-0.283525375-0.638022355-0.26541821-1.606162442874.338340141.96165986321985

885.2413768229.1586231851985914.43812.8198833219880.5116378754-0.283525375-0.638022355-0.26541821-1.606162442874.33834014-61.538340141985

885.24137682-34.341376821985850.93914.4198833219880.5116378754-0.283525375-0.638022355-0.26541821-1.606162442874.3383401440.0616598631985

885.2413768254.5586231851985939.83863.6198833219880.5116378754-0.283525375-0.638022355-0.26541821-1.606162442874.33834014-10.738340141985

885.2413768241.8586231851985927.13977.9198833219880.5116378754-0.283525375-0.638022355-0.26541821-1.606162442874.33834014103.561659861985

885.24137682105.358623181985990.63914.4198833219880.5116378754-0.283525375-0.638022355-0.26541821-1.606162442874.3383401440.0616598631985

885.2413768254.5586231851985939.83850.9198833219880.5116378754-0.283525375-0.638022355-0.26541821-1.606162442874.33834014-23.438340141985

885.2413768254.5586231851985939.83939.8198833219880.5116378754-0.283525375-0.638022355-0.26541821-1.606162442874.3383401465.4616598631985

885.24137682-47.041376821985838.23927.1198833219880.5116378754-0.283525375-0.638022355-0.26541821-1.606162442874.3383401452.7616598631985

885.241376823.758623184819858893990.6198833219880.5116378754-0.283525375-0.638022355-0.26541821-1.606162442874.33834014116.261659861985

885.241376823.758623184819858893939.8198833219880.5116378754-0.283525375-0.638022355-0.26541821-1.606162442874.3383401465.4616598631985

885.24137682-47.041376821985838.23939.8198833219880.5116378754-0.283525375-0.638022355-0.26541821-1.606162442874.3383401465.4616598631985

885.24137682-21.641376821985863.63838.2198833219880.5116378754-0.283525375-0.638022355-0.26541821-1.606162442874.33834014-36.138340141985

885.241376823.758623184819858893889198833219880.5116378754-0.283525375-0.638022355-0.26541821-1.606162442874.3383401414.6616598631985

885.2413768254.5586231851985939.83889198833219880.5116378754-0.283525375-0.638022355-0.26541821-1.606162442874.3383401414.6616598631985

885.24137682-47.041376821985838.23838.2198833219880.5116378754-0.283525375-0.638022355-0.26541821-1.606162442874.33834014-36.138340141985

885.24137682-34.341376821985850.93863.6198833219880.5116378754-0.283525375-0.638022355-0.26541821-1.606162442874.33834014-10.738340141985

885.2413768241.8586231851985927.13889198833219880.5116378754-0.283525375-0.638022355-0.26541821-1.606162442874.3383401414.6616598631985

885.24137682-47.041376821985838.23939.8198833219880.5116378754-0.283525375-0.638022355-0.26541821-1.606162442874.3383401465.4616598631985

885.2413768254.5586231851985939.83838.2198833219880.5116378754-0.283525375-0.638022355-0.26541821-1.606162442874.33834014-36.138340141985

885.2413768241.8586231851985927.13850.9198833219880.5116378754-0.283525375-0.638022355-0.26541821-1.606162442874.33834014-23.438340141985

885.24137682-8.9413768151985876.33927.1198833219880.5116378754-0.283525375-0.638022355-0.26541821-1.606162442874.3383401452.7616598631985

885.24137682-21.641376821985863.63838.2198833219880.5116378754-0.283525375-0.638022355-0.26541821-1.606162442874.33834014-36.138340141985

885.24137682118.0586231819851003.33939.8198833219880.5116378754-0.283525375-0.638022355-0.26541821-1.606162442874.3383401465.4616598631985

885.241376823.758623184819858893927.1198833219880.5116378754-0.283525375-0.638022355-0.26541821-1.606162442874.3383401452.7616598631985

885.24137682-47.041376821985838.23876.3198833219880.5116378754-0.283525375-0.638022355-0.26541821-1.606162442874.338340141.96165986321985

885.2413768279.9586231851985965.23863.6198833219880.5116378754-0.283525375-0.638022355-0.26541821-1.606162442874.33834014-10.738340141985

885.24137682-34.341376821985850.931003.3198833219880.5116378754-0.283525375-0.638022355-0.26541821-1.606162442874.33834014128.961659861985

885.24137682-47.041376821985838.23889198833219880.5116378754-0.283525375-0.638022355-0.26541821-1.606162442874.3383401414.6616598631985

885.2413768279.9586231851985965.23838.2198833219880.5116378754-0.283525375-0.638022355-0.26541821-1.606162442874.33834014-36.138340141985

885.24137682-97.841376821985787.43965.2198833219880.5116378754-0.283525375-0.638022355-0.26541821-1.606162442874.3383401490.8616598631985

885.24137682-72.441376821985812.83850.9198833219880.5116378754-0.283525375-0.638022355-0.26541821-1.606162442874.33834014-23.438340141985

885.24137682-59.741376821985825.53838.2198833219880.5116378754-0.283525375-0.638022355-0.26541821-1.606162442874.33834014-36.138340141985

885.24137682-47.041376821985838.23965.2198833219880.5116378754-0.283525375-0.638022355-0.26541821-1.606162442874.3383401490.8616598631985

885.24137682-97.841376821985787.43787.4198833219880.5116378754-0.283525375-0.638022355-0.26541821-1.606162442874.33834014-86.938340141985

885.24137682-47.041376821985838.23812.8198833219880.5116378754-0.283525375-0.638022355-0.26541821-1.606162442874.33834014-61.538340141985

885.241376823.758623184819858893825.5198833219880.5116378754-0.283525375-0.638022355-0.26541821-1.606162442874.33834014-48.838340141985

885.2413768267.2586231851985952.53838.2198833219880.5116378754-0.283525375-0.638022355-0.26541821-1.606162442874.33834014-36.138340141985

885.2413768279.9586231851985965.23787.4198833219880.5116378754-0.283525375-0.638022355-0.26541821-1.606162442874.33834014-86.938340141985

885.24137682-21.641376821985863.63838.2198833219880.5116378754-0.283525375-0.638022355-0.26541821-1.606162442874.33834014-36.138340141985

885.24137682-59.741376821985825.53889198833219880.5116378754-0.283525375-0.638022355-0.26541821-1.606162442874.3383401414.6616598631985

885.24137682105.358623181985990.63952.5198833219880.5116378754-0.283525375-0.638022355-0.26541821-1.606162442874.3383401478.1616598631985

885.24137682-72.441376821985812.83965.2198833219880.5116378754-0.283525375-0.638022355-0.26541821-1.606162442874.3383401490.8616598631985

885.24137682-34.341376821985850.93863.6198833219880.5116378754-0.283525375-0.638022355-0.26541821-1.606162442874.33834014-10.738340141985

885.24137682-97.841376821985787.43825.5198833219880.5116378754-0.283525375-0.638022355-0.26541821-1.606162442874.33834014-48.838340141985

885.2413768279.9586231851985965.23990.6198833219880.5116378754-0.283525375-0.638022355-0.26541821-1.606162442874.33834014116.261659861985

885.24137682-110.54137681985774.73812.8198833219880.5116378754-0.283525375-0.638022355-0.26541821-1.606162442874.33834014-61.538340141985

885.2413768292.6586231851985977.93850.9198833219880.5116378754-0.283525375-0.638022355-0.26541821-1.606162442874.33834014-23.438340141985

885.2413768279.9586231851985965.23787.4198833219880.5116378754-0.283525375-0.638022355-0.26541821-1.606162442874.33834014-86.938340141985

885.24137682-72.441376821985812.83965.2198833219880.5116378754-0.283525375-0.638022355-0.26541821-1.606162442874.3383401490.8616598631985

885.2413768216.4586231851985901.73774.7198833219880.5116378754-0.283525375-0.638022355-0.26541821-1.606162442874.33834014-99.638340141985

885.24137682-47.041376821985838.23977.9198833219880.5116378754-0.283525375-0.638022355-0.26541821-1.606162442874.33834014103.561659861985

885.2413768229.1586231851985914.43965.2198833219880.5116378754-0.283525375-0.638022355-0.26541821-1.606162442874.3383401490.8616598631985

885.2413768229.1586231851985914.43812.8198833219880.5116378754-0.283525375-0.638022355-0.26541821-1.606162442874.33834014-61.538340141985

899.66247168-61.462471681986838.23901.7198833219880.5116378754-0.283525375-0.638022355-0.26541821-1.606162442874.3383401427.3616598631985

899.66247168-36.062471681986863.63838.2198833219880.5116378754-0.283525375-0.638022355-0.26541821-1.606162442874.33834014-36.138340141985

899.662471682.03752832361986901.73914.4198833219880.5116378754-0.283525375-0.638022355-0.26541821-1.606162442874.3383401440.0616598631985

899.66247168-86.862471681986812.83914.4198833219880.5116378754-0.283525375-0.638022355-0.26541821-1.606162442874.3383401440.0616598631985

899.66247168-99.562471681986800.13838.219893321989-0.7382115460.2161724537-1.584890968-1.766120268-0.329616085863.55461258-25.354612581986

899.66247168-86.862471681986812.83863.619893321989-0.7382115460.2161724537-1.584890968-1.766120268-0.329616085863.554612580.04538742231986

899.6624716840.1375283241986939.83901.719893321989-0.7382115460.2161724537-1.584890968-1.766120268-0.329616085863.5546125838.1453874221986

899.66247168-86.862471681986812.83812.819893321989-0.7382115460.2161724537-1.584890968-1.766120268-0.329616085863.55461258-50.754612581986

899.66247168-61.462471681986838.23800.119893321989-0.7382115460.2161724537-1.584890968-1.766120268-0.329616085863.55461258-63.454612581986

878.284879-90.8848791987787.43812.819893321989-0.7382115460.2161724537-1.584890968-1.766120268-0.329616085863.55461258-50.754612581986

878.284879-90.8848791987787.43939.819893321989-0.7382115460.2161724537-1.584890968-1.766120268-0.329616085863.5546125876.2453874221986

877.9245345549.1754654541988927.13812.819893321989-0.7382115460.2161724537-1.584890968-1.766120268-0.329616085863.55461258-50.754612581986

877.92453455-65.124534551988812.83838.219893321989-0.7382115460.2161724537-1.584890968-1.766120268-0.329616085863.55461258-25.35

fisheries models: methods, data requirements, environmental linkages

Documents

level of fishing mortality

fishery cpue

fishery quotas

target levels

target green

fisheries models

effects of fishing

minimum level