First Results on theQuantitative Data Analysis

in Madagascar

Vakinankaratra

To FianarantsoaRN 7

To Antananarivo

To MorondavaWest Coast

Fianarantsoa

To Antsirabe

To Toliara

Village Strata VAKINA

Paved Road Large Small

PANEL Close Mandriankeni Iandratsay

Ambohiambo

Far Manarintsoa Ambohijafy

Antampondra

Tsaramody

NEW Close Ambatomainty Tsaratanana

Far Zanakambony Andranokely

Village Strata FIANAR

Paved Road Large Small

FIANAR Close Miandrifekona Ambohimaha

Far Sahavanana

Sangasanga

Tsararivotra

Ampampana

Samples

N 1992 N 1997 N 2000 N 2002

Panel 135 135 135 135

New 80

VAKINA 135 135 135 215

FIANAR 0 95 122 122

Attrition Rate

Sample size Between

97 – 00

Between

00 – 02

VAKINA 135 32 (23.7%) 7 (5.1%)

FIANAR 122 29 (23.8%) 16 (13.1%)

A.R. Vakinankaratra

To FianarantsoaRN 7

To Antananarivo

To Morondava

27/0

13/0 53/20

12/8

20/8

27/0

40/0

A.R Fianarantsoa

To Antsirabe

To Toliara

21/16

45/15

31/25

7/0

45/1520/819/5

Reason of Non-Retrieval

- Temporary absent from the village (may be re-surveyed)- Temporary migration for Ag. salary worker- Temporary migration to mining area- Refuse to be interviewed (sickness, too old)- Definitive migration

Survey Facts

- Time consuming: 5 to 10 hours per HH- F(# of plots, # Ag. Activities)- Split interview in 2 stages- No time to visit all plots

- 40% Vakinankaratra- 60% Fianarantsoa

- Have to pay farmers

Income Computation

- AGRICULTURAL INCOME- Sales- Consumption: Food, Feed, Seed

- LIVESTOCK INCOME- Sales- Consumption- Farm product (Valued at 25% village price of adult)

- NONFARM INCOME (NET)- Wage (including Ag. Wage)- Transfer - Non agricultural Activities

Income Computation (cont'd)

- Official Minimum Wage = US$ 30 = US$ 1 per day per capita- Family of 2 Extreme-poor- Family of 4 Ultra-poor

-Average household size in Madagascar: Between 4 and 6

-Average Agricultural wage for hired labor = US$1- 50 to 70% Cash- 30 – 70% Food

Transition Matrix Vakinankaratra

Poverty line US$ 0.50 Poverty line US$ 0.25

Poor in 2002

Non Poor in 2002

Poor in 2002

Non Poor in 2002

Poor in 1997

61.7% 8.5% 30.9% 6.4%

Non Poor in 1997

27.7% 8.5% 27.7% 35.1%

Transition Matrix Fianarantsoa

Poverty line US$ 0.50 Poverty line US$ 0.25

Poor in 2002

Non Poor in 2002

Poor in 2002

Non Poor in 2002

Poor in 1997

91.4% 5.2% 48.3% 5.2%

Non Poor in 1997

3.4% 0.0% 34.5% 12.1%

Vakinankaratra 1997 – 2002Per capita INCOME

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5

1997 US$/day per capita

2002

US

$/d

ay p

er c

apit

a

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5

1997 US$/day per capita

2002

US

$/d

ay p

ar c

apit

a

Fianarantsoa 1997 – 2002Per capita INCOME

Stat : Demographic Char. V

VAKINA

(US$ .25)

Household Size Age of HHH Education level of HHH

P1/P2 7.1 48.3 2.2

P1/NP2 3.0 51.5 2.3

NP1/P2 6.6 51.3 2.1

NP1/NP2 6.1 49.5 2.5

Stat : Demographic Char. F

FIANAR

(US$ .25)

Household Size Age of HHH Education level of HHH

P1/P2 8.1 49.3 2.3

P1/NP2 5.3 45.3 2.0

NP1/P2 8.1 52.9 2.6

NP1/NP2 7.6 43.4 3.1

Stat : Food Security V

Number of Months where food consumption is low

Average kg of rice purchased during the year

P1/P2 5.5 505

P1/NP2 5.8 233

NP1/P2 5.5 367

NP1/NP2 2.8 376

VAKINANKARATRA 4.6 405

Stat : Food Security F

Number of Months where food consumption is low

Average kg of rice purchased during the year

P1/P2 6.1 328

P1/NP2 4.7 150

NP1/P2 4.9 262

NP1/NP2 5.1 310

FIANARANTSOA 5.5 293

Stat : Agricultural Land V

HH Rice field in are

HH upland in are

Per capita Rice field in are

Per capita upland in are

P1/P2 31.8 83.1 4.5 11.7

P1/NP2 14.3 42.1 4.8 14.0

NP1/P2 31.3 103.0 4.7 15.6

NP1/NP2 85.6 171.8 14.0 28.2

VAKINA 49.4 117.2 7.8 18.6

Stat : Agricultural Land F

HH Rice field in are

HH upland in are

Per capita Rice field in are

Per capita upland in are

P1/P2 51.3 65.4 6.3 8.1

P1/NP2 32.5 45.8 6.1 8.6

NP1/P2 69.1 62.5 8.5 7.7

NP1/NP2 126.7 163.4 16.7 21.5

FIANAR 65.5 75.2 8.3 9.5

Stat : Income Composition V

Per capita income 2002

per year

Wage Non Agricultural

Livestock Agricultural

P1/P2 58164

53724

24.7

36.3

8.2

13.2

9.5

5.7

56.3

44.9

P1/NP2 151756

63796

13.6

35.6

3.3

22.3

11.4

1.5

71.6

40.6

NP1/P2 75050

212115

13.1

13.5

3.7

28.3

17.1

19.4

65.7

38.9

NP1/NP2 305365

225319

9.2

11.5

6.5

22.3

42.9

19.8

41.1

46.3

VAKINA 148941

155188

12.0

15.6

6.2

23.3

33.6

17.6

47.7

43.5

Stat : Income Composition F

Per capita income 2002 per year

Wage Non Agricultural

Livestock Agricultural

P1/P2 50177

52685

4.2

16.6

10.0

7.5

20.2

7.4

64.3

68.6

P1/NP2 167059

52810

0.0

11.8

0.0

19.0

45.8

2.1

42.9

67.1

NP1/P2 58117

122251

3.1

14.3

6.7

15.0

24.4

9.1

65.5

64.6

NP1/NP2 203126

115747

7.8

4.7

23.1

8.4

13.7

25.2

55.1

61.8

FIANAR 74775

81961

4.7

13.7

12.4

11.7

21.3

10.4

60.1

64.2

Recommendation for Qualitative work

Village with PNP- 1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 for Vakinankaratra- 22, 23 for Fianarantsoa

Village with NPP- 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 for Vakinankaratra- 19, 21 for Fianarantsoa

Village with NPNP- 2, 3, 4, 5, 6- None at US$ 0.50