Fire Emissions from 30,000’ – Regional Haze Planning Needs

and Level(s) of EffortTom Moore & Lee Alter

Fire Emissions Joint Forum MeetingTucson, AZ – December 10, 2003

Fire Emissions from 30,000’4 subject areas today - Intercontinental Transport Historic Patterns: Fire Activity Data for Rx, Ag, & Wx

Existing WRAP FEJF Emissions Inventory Methods Reasonable Progress Demonstration Needs –

Approaches & Ideas

Intercontinental Transport

http://wrapair.org/forums/dejf/documents/2002JD002204.pdf

JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, VOL. 107, NO. D24

Asian aerosols in North America: Frequency and concentration of fine dustRichard A. VanCurenResearch Division, California Air Resources Board, Sacramento, California, USAThomas A. CahillDELTA Group, Department of Applied Science, University of California, Davis, California, USA

Received 14 February 2002; revised 27 April 2002; accepted 2 June 2002; published 28 December 2002.

Intercontinental Transport

Intercontinental Transport

Intercontinental Transport

Intercontinental Transport

http://www.epa.gov/air/airtrends/asian_dust4.pdf

Intercontinental Transport

Intercontinental Transport

Intercontinental Transport

Intercontinental Transport

Intercontinental Transport

Intercontinental Transport

http://www.awma.org/em/pdfs/2003/12/wilcox.pdf

Intercontinental Transport

Intercontinental Transport

Intercontinental Transport

http://www.awma.org/em/pdfs/2003/12/ramanathan.pdf

Intercontinental Transport

Historic Patterns:Fire Activity Data for Rx & Wx

http://www.nifc.gov/news/sitreprt.pdf

National Interagency Fire Center website

2003

2003

Historic Patterns:Fire Activity Data for Rx & Wx

Number of Fires (2002 final) 88,458

      10-year Average (1992-2001) 103,112

Acres Burned (2002 final) * 6,937,584

      10-year Average (1992-2001) 4,215,089

Historic Patterns:Fire Activity Data for Rx & Wx

Number of Fires (2001) 84.079

      10-year Average (1991-2000) 106,400

Acres Burned (2001) 3,570,911

      10-year Average (1991-2000) 4,083,347

Historic Patterns:Fire Activity Data for Rx & Wx

Number of Fires (2000) 122,827

            

      10-year Average (1990-1999) 106,393

Acres Burned (2000) 8,422,237

      10-year Average (1990-1999) 3,786,411

Historic Patterns:Fire Activity Data for Rx & Wx

Historic Patterns:Fire Activity Data for Rx & Wx

Year Fires Acres1990 122,043 5,454,7731991 116,941 1,502,6651992 103,946 1,812,2191993 97,030 2,309,4181994 114,066 4,727,2721995 130,019 2,316,5951996 115,166 6,701,8421997 89,517 3,662,3571998 81,043 2,329,7091999 93,702 5,661,976

10-Year Average 106,347 3,647,883

Total Fires and Acres Reported to NIFC as of December 30, 1999

Historic Patterns:Fire Activity Data for Rx & Wx

Prescribed Fires and Acres Reported to NIFC as of December 30, 1999

Geographic Area Number of Fires Number of Acres TreatedAlaska 15 44,289Northwest 1,056 143,683California 641 82,554Northern Rockies 901 102,844Great Basin - East 267 149,550Great Basin - West 26 11,266Southwest 642 221,758Rocky Mountain 376 124,366Eastern Area 213 24,559Southern Area 1,800 938,578Total for United States 5,937 1,843,456

Emission Inventories for Wildfire, Prescribed Fire & Agricultural BurningPrepared for the Fire Emissions Joint ForumFire Emissions Joint Forum of the Western Regional Air PartnershipWestern Regional Air PartnershipJune 7, 2002 – Denver, COJune 7, 2002 – Denver, CO

Prepared by Air Sciences Inc.

Existing WRAP FEJF Emissions Inventory Methods1996 Inventories 2018 Projections

WF & Rx: Actual activity data (acres or fuel burned)

Calculate emissions. Plume characteristics

Rx: Predictive model (1995 FEP) provides 50km emissions

Ag: Typical activity data (residue burned per crop per county); calculate emissions.

Refine the data Realistic fire sizes Temporally Spatially Plume characteristics

Reasonable? Representative?Accurate? Can quantify uncertainty.

Existing WRAP FEJF Emissions Inventory Methods

Wildfire Activity data collected by

ETT from ICS-209 (and others)

Prescribed Fire Collected by ETT from state

sources augmented by 1202 for DOI (and others)

1996 Wildfire and Rx Fire – Activity DataBased on ACTUALACTUAL acres burned data

Existing WRAP FEJF Emissions Inventory Methods

Total

Units Quantity% oftotal Quantity

% oftotal Quantity

% oftotal

Fire StatisticsFire Events fires 1,348 0% 153,532 47% 171,920 53% 326,800 Fire Duration - mean days 3.6 ≡ 1 ≡ 1Fire Days - original days 4,902 1% 153,532 46% 171,920 52% 330,354 Fire Days - w/ smoldering days 5,311 2% 153,532 46% 171,920 52% 330,763

Agricultural BurningBase

2018 Fire Projection Summary AverageWildfire

Prescribed FireBase

Existing WRAP FEJF Emissions Inventory Methods

Total

Units Quantity% oftotal Quantity

% oftotal Quantity

% oftotal

EmissionsTSP 103 tons 328 28% 811 70% 23 2% 1,162

PM 10 103 tons 270 30% 602 67% 22 2% 895 PM 2.5 103 tons 232 30% 510 67% 21 3% 763

Elemental Carbon 103 tons 14 20% 52 73% 4 6% 71 Organic Carbon 103 tons 112 31% 244 67% 9 2% 365

VOC 103 tons 131 36% 216 59% 20 5% 367 CH 4 103 tons 131 31% 277 67% 8 2% 415 NH 3 103 tons 13 13% 78 82% 4 4% 95 NO x 103 tons 60 13% 392 85% 10 2% 461

CO 103 tons 2,780 32% 5,599 65% 218 3% 8,597 SO 2 103 tons 16 30% 36 67% 1 3% 54

PM-coarse 103 tons 38 29% 92 70% 1 1% 131

Wildfire Prescribed Fire Agricultural Burning

Base

2018 Fire Projection Summary

Existing WRAP FEJF Emissions Inventory Methods

Reasonable Progress Demonstration Needs – Approaches & Ideas

Reasonable Progress Demonstration Needs – Approaches & Ideas

Reasonable Progress Demonstration Needs – Approaches & Ideas

Light Extinction of Major Aerosol Species Normalized to 13-Year Average at Glacier National Park on 20% Worst Days

-1.00

-0.50

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

Year

OC_normEC_normSO4_normNO3_normSOIL_norm

Light Extinction of Major Aerosol Species Normalized to 13-Year Average at Glacier National Park on 20% Best Days

-1.00

-0.50

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

Year

OC_normEC_normSO4_normNO3_normSOIL_norm

Light Extinction of Major Aerosol Species Normalized to 13-Year Average at Lassen Volcanic National Park on 20% Worst Days

-1.00

-0.50

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

Year

OC_normEC_normSO4_normNO3_normSOIL_norm

Light Extinction of Major Aerosol Species Normalized to 13-Year Average at Lassen Volcanic National Park on 20% Best Days

-1.00

-0.50

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

Year

OC_normEC_normSO4_normNO3_normSOIL_norm

Light Extinction of Major Aerosol Species Normalized to 11-Year Average at Bandalier National Monument on 20% Worst Days

-1.00

-0.50

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

Year

OC_normEC_normSO4_normNO3_normSOIL_norm

Light Extinction of Major Aerosol Species Normalized to 11-Year Average at Bandalier National Monument on 20% Best Days

-1.00

-0.50

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

Year

OC_normEC_normSO4_normNO3_normSOIL_norm

Light Extinction of Major Aerosol Species Normalized to 12-Year Average at Badlands National Park on 20% Worst Days

-1.00

-0.50

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

Year

OC_normEC_normSO4_normNO3_normSOIL_norm

Light Extinction of Major Aerosol Species Normalized to 12-Year Average at Badlands National Park on 20% Best Days

-1.00

-0.50

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

Year

OC_normEC_normSO4_normNO3_normSOIL_norm

Light Extinction of Major Aerosol Species Normalized to 10-Year Average at Grand Canyon National Park on 20% Worst Days

-1.00

-0.50

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

Year

OC_normEC_normSO4_normNO3_normSOIL_norm

Light Extinction of Major Aerosol Species Normalized to 10-Year Average at Grand Canyon National Park on 20% Best Days

-1.00

-0.50

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

Year

OC_normEC_normSO4_normNO3_normSOIL_norm

0

2

4

6

8

10

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Biogenic carbon massFossil carbon mass

y = -0.69929 + 0.99973x R= 0.99069

Biog

enic

or

foss

il c

arbo

n co

nten

t in

aero

sol (

g/m

3 )

Total carbon content in aerosol (g/m3 )

Carbon Dating at Yosemite Lower bound

on anthro Upper bound

on biomass burning

Data from abnormally high OC days

Reasonable Progress Demonstration Needs – Approaches & Ideas

http://www.fs.fed.us/rm/ogden/maps/map_products.html

Interior West Forest Inventory & Analysis -- Map Products -- We are currently developing spatially explicit map products of several forest attributes for ecoregions in the Interior West. The maps are generated by modelling forest inventory variables as functions of satellite data along with digital topographic and geographic data.

Reasonable Progress Demonstration Needs – Approaches & Ideas

(http://erg.usgs.gov/isb/pubs/factsheets/fs10800.pdf)

Data Classification System Key11 Open Water12 Perennial Ice/Snow21 Low-Intensity Residential22 High-Intensity Residential23 Commercial/Industrial/Transportation31 Bare Rock/Sand/Clay32 Quarries/Strip Mines/Gravel Pits33 Transitional41 Deciduous Forest42 Evergreen Forest43 Mixed Forest

51 Shrubland61 Orchards/Vineyards/Other71 Grasslands/Herbaceous81 Pasture/Hay82 Row Crops83 Small Grains84 Fallow85 Urban/Recreational Grasses91 Woody Wetlands92 Emergent Herbaceous Wetlands

Reasonable Progress Demonstration Needs – Approaches & Ideas

Select an ecoregion: Southern Rocky Mountain Steppe/Open Woodland/Coniferous forest/Alpine Meadow Province - The Southern Rocky Mountain Steppe province is characterized by rugged glaciated mountains oriented north-south and east-west. The climate is influenced by westerly winds and elevation gradients ranging from 3,000 ft (900 m) to 14,000 ft (4,300 m). The vegetation is also influenced by wind and elevation along with latitude and slope exposure. In the upper, subalpine zone, Engelmann spruce coexists with subalpine fir. Below the subalpine zone, in the montane zone, ponderosa pine occurs on dry, exposed slopes and Douglas-fir occurs in more moist, sheltered areas. Aspen and lodgepole appear following fire in both the subalpine and montane zones but are gradually replaced by the original forest trees. The foothill (woodland) zone, below the montane zone is composed of dry rocky slopes with scrub oak and mountain-mahogany trees or ponderosa pine and pinyon-juniper forests, depending on slope exposure (Bailey 1980). Nevada-Utah Mountains Semi-Desert/Coniferous Forest/Alpine Meadow Province - The Nevada-Utah Mountains Semi-Desert province is composed of linear mountains rising steeply from semiarid plains with altitudes ranging from 3,000 ft (900 m) to 13,000 ft (3,960 m). The climate varies with elevation but generally has a long drought season and a short humid season. The vegetation is again influenced by elevation with Engelmann spruce and subalpine fir at high elevation, subapine zones and Douglas-fir and ponderosa pine occurring in the Montane zones. Bristlecone pine also occurs in some of the supalpine zones, reaching almost 1,000 years of age. The foothill or woodland zone consists mainly of pinyon-juniper forests on lower mountain slopes merging with the sagebrush zone occuring just under the foothill zone and dominated by sagebrush species (Bailey 1980).

Reasonable Progress Demonstration Needs – Approaches & Ideas

Select an ecoregion: Northern Rocky Mountain Forest-Steppe-Coniferous Forest-Alpine Meadow Province- The Northern Rocky Mountain province is characterized by high, rugged mountains reaching up to 9,000 ft (2,700 m). The climate includes severe winters with the average temperate of the coldest month below 32°F (0°C) and the average temperature of the warmest month below 72°F (22°C). The vegetation consists of two major types of mixed evergreen-deciduous forest predominates; Douglas-fir and cedar-hemlock-Douglas-fir forests. (Bailey 1980). Middle Rocky Mountain Steppe-Coniferous Forest-Alpine Meadow Province- The Middle Rocky Mountain province consists of deeply dissected granitic mountain ranges with elevations ranging from 3,000 to 7,000 ft (900 to 2,130 m). The climate is influenced by the Pacific Ocean, with mild temperatures and western winds. The vegetation is influenced by elevation with Douglas-fir dominant below the subalpine zone and grand fir occurring on west of the continental divide and lodgepole pine occurring in basins on the east of the divide. The lower slopes are characteristically sagebrush semidesert or steppe (Bailey 1980).

Map ProductsMontana Ecoregions

http://www.fs.fed.us/rm/ogden/maps/map_products.html

Reasonable Progress Demonstration Needs – Approaches & Ideas

Rocky Mountain Steppe/Open Woodland/Coniferous forest/Alpine Meadow Province

Forest Attribute Maps

Metadata

Predicted forest cover                   

PDF

                                   

         

Predicted tree crown cover                   

PDF

Predicted tree basal area                   

PDF

Predicted stand age                   

PDF

Predicted trees per acre                   

PDF

Predicted quadratic mean diameter 

                  

PDF

WRAP-up Intercontinental and international transport very

important and affect regional haze planning process Wildfire most important of fire emissions categories Lesser initial level of effort on Rx and Ag fire Likely subsequent focus on near-Class I

area/subregional needs for Rx and Ag fire Need to think about development and applications of

fire emissions data in the context of reasonable progress and uncontrollable versus controllable emissions