finstuen, kenn; alleywilalam.e. kenn -finstuen 'williame. alley. manpower and personnel. d. vision

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  • Ap:233

    AUTHOR ' TITLE

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    'ABSTRACT The inleractive-Leffects of Air Force occupational

    specialty and pergennel characferistics on predictions of tenure for first-term enlisted .airmen- were -studied. Historical data files were compiled on 280,039 Air Force enlistees. Two classes of varieblei were.extracted for-the sample: personnel characteristics tnc ing age, sex, race,,,educationallbackground, aptitude scores, a occupational assignments identifying the enlistee's Air "Force specialty code (AFSC). Two tenure criteria were deVeloped to reflect the number of months served ('up to 36) and a'dichotomous variable coded 1 if the airman was still in the'service after 16 months; a zero was used otherwise. Fourmultiple linear regression models.were. developed to examine.the occupational and personnel correlates associated with airmen tenure. 'Results indicited that attrition"rates, differed markedly among AFSCs. These differences4were attributed both' to background and educational characteristics and to;ttie uniq aspects of, individual AFSCs. The'nature of the differenceswe interactive rather than additive. A general statistical model, designed to predict for, all specialties combined, was found to be

    emuch,less'accurate than wre specialty-specific equations. (Ten pages' o'f attrition data are appended.) (YLB)

    Finstuen, Kenn; AlleyWilalam.E. .

    Occupational and Personnel Corielates,of First-Term Enlisted Tendre in the Air. Force. Final Report. Air Force Human Resources Lab., Brooks AFB, Tex. ManpoWet and Personnel Div: AFHRL-TR-82-36 Aug 83

    ' 32P. Reports Research/Techaical (143)

    MF01/PCO2, Pius Postage. *Enlisted Personnel; .*Individual Characteristics; ;Military Service;*OccupatiOns; Regression (Statistics); *Tenure Air Force; *Aire Force Specialty Code;,Military Enlistmtnt; Military Occupation Specialty

    CE 036 668:

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    **************i******************st***********Asi*m******************** * Reproductions supplied by- EDRS are the best that can be 'made4

    7 ..from the original document. ****4******************************************************************

  • AFHItL-TR-82-36

    OCCUPATIONAL AND PERSONNEL CORRELATES OP FIRST.TERM ENLISTED TENURE ENITHE AIR FORCE

    By.

    Kenn -Finstuen 'WilliamE. Alley

    MANPOWER AND PERSONNEL D VISION Brooks Force Basf, Texas 78 35

    Approved fiir ptlhlit relezt.sr; diAlributi( Ii unlimil d.

    RY

    U.S. DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF EDUCATION .

    EDUCATIONAL RESOURCES INFORMATION .1 CENTER (ERIC)

    This document has been reprodiiced..as received from the person or organization originating it. ,

    ,.; Minor changes hive been made to, improve 'traproduction

    S

    Points of wieyv or opinions stated in this docu-

    ment doonot necessarily 'stamen! official NIE

    ptdition or policy.

    wr

    AI :FORCE SYSTEMS 642 MANE) BROOKS AIR FORCE BASE.;TEXA 78235

    2-

  • NOTICE

    When Government drawings, specificatiOns, or other data are used for any purpose other than in connection with a definitely Government-related .procurement, the United States Government incurs no responsibility or any obligation..whatsoever. The fact that the Gover ent may have formulated or in any way supplied the said drawings, specifications, or afher data, is not to be regarded by implication, or otherwise in any manner construed,

    licensing the holder, or any other person or corporation; or as conveying any rights or permission to manufacture, usel or sell any patented invention that may in any way be related thereto. ti

    This report has been reviewed by the Office of Public Affairs (13i1) and is releasable to the National TechnicUl'Information Service (NTIS). At NTIS, it will be available to the general. public, including foreign nations.

    , This report has been reviewed'eviewed and is-approved for publicafioii.

    4

    NANCY GUINN, Technical Director Manpower and Personnel Division

    ALFRED A. BOYD, JR., Colonel, USAF Commander

    4.

  • a

    Unclassified SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF THIS PAGE (When Data Entere

    1

    e . 10 .

    4LEPORT DOCUMENTATION 4, AGE READ INSTRUCTIONS . BEFORE COMPLETING FORM

    1...REPORTABER AFHRL;TR-82-36

    2. G. T ACCESSION NO. \,'x,

    3. RECIPIENT'S CATALOG NUMBER

    , 4. TITL -(and Subtitle) ,k\\. . \ . OC 4.JPATIONAL AND PERSONNEL CORRELATES Or's

    . FIRST-TERM ENLISTED ,TENURE IN THE AIR FORCE i `.

    . ,

    5. TYPE OF REPORT & PERIOD COVERED

    Final ..

    6. PERFORMING ORG. REPORT NUMBER

    . rAUTHOR W

    e,nn Finstuen /1- ,.: Will'iam E. MI6/ T

    . . .

    8: CONTRACT OR GRANT NUMBER 14

    . (

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    4. PERFORMING. OttCANIZATION.. NAME AND ADDRESS 1411:1,06iyfer and Personnel Division . Air Ferce Hurniih Resources Laboratory -, ; Brooks Air Forco Base, Texas 78235

    4w1

    '44

    '10. PROGRAM ELEMENT, PROJECT, TASK AREA iii WORK UNIT NUMBERS / 62703F / 77340822

    ,. 11, CONTROLLING OFFICE NAME AND ADDRESS -,

    HQ Air Force Hunian Resources Laboratory (A FSQ't-, Brooks Asir Force Base, Tex t,78235 ,: ',,', . 12. REPORT DATEAugust 1983,13. NUMBER OF PAGES ,32 '

    14. MONITORING AGENCY NAME , & ADDRESS (if differint from Controlling Office) .)

    ... . '

    15. SECURITY CLASS (of this report) Unclassified

    15.a. DECLASSIFICATION/DOWNGRADING SCHEDULE

    16. DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT (of this Report) . ,

    Approvedlor public release; distribution unlitnited. .

    . .

    17. DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT (of this abstract: giitered in Block 20; if different from Report),-. . 11 ' '1,. .

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    ___J . 18. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES. ,

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    19. KEY WORDS (Continue on reverse side 'if 'necessary and identify by block lumber)) I'. --.,.attrition personnel characteristics . .

    \ . .first/term airmen v retention .

    ,,

    linear models --;'' tenure -,,,,, , v,./multiple regression analyses /./ turnover ,,, \ occupational correlates .',, 'r . I, /!'

    20: ABSTRACT (Continue on reverse side if necessary and identify by black ntariber):` , , I

    Traditionally, researchersl:concerried with enlisted 'airmen. Separation and attrition have focused primarily on personnel characteristics associated with these losses. In cootraSt, studies from the c.ivilian sector have routinely examined' the effects of both personnel characteristics and :,o0Upational data associated with turnover rates. This research was designed to assess the intqactive effects . of Air force occupational specialty and personnel characteristics on predictions of tenure for first-term enlisted airmen.

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    DD Form 1473 1Jan 73

    EDITION OF 1 NOV 65 IS OBSOLETE Unclassified

    SECURITY. CLASSIFICATION OF THI PAGE (When Date Entered)

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  • Unclassifitid. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF THIS PAGE (When Data Enle

    Item.20 (Continued

    A setof multiple linear regression equations was del'it.:lop -(1 to examine the occupational and Rersonnel correlates associated with airmen tenure. A sample (4280.039. airmen ovided the.deita base.,from which these Models were . generated. Two-tenine criteria were develoed/to' reflect (a) t e number of months serve. d (up to 36)and (b) a.4

    . dichotomous variable codttl'l ifitie airman was still in ate servi&t after 36 months and 0 otherwise. The first prediction Model identifiod each of 186 Air.Force.enlisted specialtieS..A sec*ecnd model t onsisfed.of personnel variables such as age, sex, aptitude, race, and family information. The third moddl cdpsisted of an equationcontaining the personnel characteristic variables plus the Air Force enlisted specialty variables: A final model eontaint ach.personnel variableinteracting with each specialty variable.

    Predictiansofboth tenure' criteria were highly significant based:on the specialty model as were those bad on ° the personnel Model,A test. of thelhird model against the fourth model \revealed that Predictions of tenure are . differentially influenced by .the 'combination of personnel characteristics specific to caul] specialty. This finding g.uggests that tenure predictions .should be made on an individual occupation;i . basis :conSidering each specialty as a sepatate; predictive framework. i1 f011ow-on analysis-substantive predictive efficiency was associated with the .occupational model as' well as with the personnel characteristics model , .Demonstrations bf the predyion system applied to random sarfiple of airmen were also included for eonSideration by personnel selection And assignment Managers to emphasize. the effects that occupational assignment strategies would have on increasing airmen lenge

    . in thelirst term.

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    SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF THIS PAGE (When Date Entered)

  • SUMMARY

    Objective . ,.`s/

    .- The objective was to measure the effects of occupational asSignmeneand certain personnel cliaracteristieSonlirstT

    tterni-enliSted tenure in the Air Force. o t.

    Background/Rationale

    Research and development (R&D) on\prematurcattrition and discharge from the military services ha: t$pically concentrated on the identification of those PersOinneVcharacteristics that appear tOpredispos'e:certaiii.enlkste s toward early loss from the service. The R&D, findings ,typically have beam used to establish selection strategies aimed t deny

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