findings of the ipcc
DESCRIPTION
Presented at the Climate Change Negotiator Training held in May 2014, in Sri Lanka.TRANSCRIPT
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Asoka AbeygunawardanaExecutive Director , Energy Forum
Board Member – Climate Action Network South Asia
Findings of the IPCC-AR5
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• IPCC – 1988
• IPCC: AR 1 - 1990 – UNFCCC
• IPCC: AR 2 - 1995 – Mitigation - Kyoto Protocol
• IPCC: AR 3 - 2001 – Adaptation
• IPCC: AR 4 - 2007 - Ultimate Objective (2°C) Bali/ Copenhagen/
Durban
• IPCC: AR 5 - 2014 - ??? – DRR/ Loss & Damage;• Migration/ Riots
IPCC
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WG I (Physical science basis): 209 lead authors, 2014 pages, 54,677 review comments – Sept, 2013
WG II (Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability): 243 lead authors, 2500 pages, 50,492 review comments- March, 2014
WG III (Mitigation of Climate Change): 235 coordinating and lead authors, 2000 pages, 38,315 review comments –April, 2014
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CO2 emission – 60% since 1990CO2 Concentration – 45%Temperature – 0.9oCSea level rise – 19 cm
GHG Emissions – Past, Present and Future
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WG1 12-129
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Who is responsible?
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What has happened since 1990?
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19811984
19871990
19931996
19992002
20052008
20112014
20172020
20232026
20292032
20352038
20412044
20470.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
Coal (x500x million t/y)
Gas ('00 million cubic m/y)
Oil (billion bbl/y)
Carbon Budget
CO2 allowed for 2 degrees (50%) 1,120 Gt CO2 allowed for 2 degrees (66%) 1,010 Gt
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Pathways
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ldnka msglsÍu ms<sn| fn,a jl%h
Understanding the Bell curve
Right to pollute …… ?
Bell Curve- Compensation …?
BAU – Growth Curve
Agenda for Developing World;=kajk f,dalhg kHdh m;%hla @
2015 2020
S - curve
CO2 emissions peak50% chancepeaking 500 ppm stabilize 450 ppm
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Fossil Fuel Addiction
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REEE
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High wind potential: over 6% of land Potential capacity- 20,000 MW. Lagoon areas: Potential capacity - 24,000 MW National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) of AmericaBrown - 5.6< <8.8Blue - 8.8<
Wind Power
Dendro Power
Solar PowerRange • 4.2 to 5.6 kWh/m2/day on a horizontal
surface• 4.5 to 6.0 kWh/m2/day
for a flat plate collector tilted to latitude• 7.32 kWh/m2/day With two axis tracking
one axis done manually for seasons
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20152016
20172018
20192020
20212022
20232024
20252026
20272028
20292030
20312032
20332034
20352036
20372038
20392040
20412042
20432044
20452046
20472048
20492050
20512052
20532054
-
50.00
100.00
150.00
200.00
250.00
300.00
Cost of Electricity
Mini hydro
Wind
Biomass - dendro
Coal considering scarcity
Coal with import tax & scarcity
Year
Uni
t pric
e (R
s/kW
h)
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1998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120120
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000bkaOk wdkhk yd idïm%odhsl wmkhk
f;a" rn¾" fmd,a wmkhkbkaOk wdkhk
jir
re ñ
,shk
Fossil Fuel Imports Vs Earnings from traditional Tea, Rubber and Coconut exports
Issue 3- Stress on Foreign Currency Reservesm%Yakh 2- úfoaY úksuh ixÑ; u; we;s jk mSvkh
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¨Total potential - 2000 MW¨Potential HEZ - 200 MW
Wave Power
OTEC
Energy Hub?
Exclusive Economic Zone - 200 nautical miles- 517,000 km2 7.8 times SL
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20132015
20172019
20212023
20252027
20292031
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
CEB Genartion Plan -Base Case - 2013-2032
Oil
Coal
NCRE
New Major Hydro
Existing Major Hydro
Ener
gy (G
Wh)
,xúu ckk ie,eiau jd¾Isl ^2013-32& jd¾Isl úÿ,s ckkh
Source: CEB
Power
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International Negotiations……!
Think Locally – Act Globally
Think Globally – Act Locally