finding the path – messaging before, during, and after...
TRANSCRIPT
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TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD
@NASEMTRB#TRBwebinar
Finding the Path –Messaging Before, During, and After Weather Events
October 28, 2020
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The Transportation Research Board
has met the standards and
requirements of the Registered
Continuing Education Providers
Program. Credit earned on completion
of this program will be reported to
RCEP. A certificate of completion will
be issued to participants that have
registered and attended the entire
session. As such, it does not include
content that may be deemed or
construed to be an approval or
endorsement by RCEP.
PDH Certification Information:
•2.0 Professional Development Hour (PDH) – see follow-up email for instructions•You must attend the entire webinar to be eligible to receive PDH credits•Questions? Contact Reggie Gillum at [email protected]
#TRBwebinar
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Learning Objectives
#TRBwebinar
1. Identify your agency’s current Pathfinder level
2. Integrate your transportation asset management program into Pathfinder activities
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Finding the Path – Messaging Before, During, and After Weather Events
Jack StickelTempestas Enterprises
Alaska DOT&PF (retired)[email protected]
Transportation Asset Management Conference WebinarOctober 28,2020
1:00 – 3:00 PM Eastern
Pathfinder TRB Webinar – 10/28/20 1
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The National Academies of
SCIENCESENGINEERINGMEDICINE
TRBTRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD
Data and Information Systems Section
Pathfinder TRB Webinar – 10/28/202
http://www.trb.org/Calendar/Blurbs/178208.aspxAbstract deadline extended to October 30
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Transportation Asset Management Conference Call for Abstracts
The National Academies of
SCIENCESENGINEERINGMEDICINE
TRBTRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD
Data and Information Systems Section
• Implementation• Data Governance / Tools• Managing Risk• Partners and Peers• Sustaining Asset Management in Your Organization• Cross-cutting issue 1: Transit• Cross-cutting issue 2: Resilience
Pathfinder TRB Webinar – 10/28/203
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Transportation Asset Management Conference Cross-cutting Issue - Resilience
The National Academies of
SCIENCESENGINEERINGMEDICINE
TRBTRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD
Data and Information Systems Section
• Success stories• Balancing resiliency requirements against practical design • Standards and practices for hydraulic engineering
addressing extreme weather events • Integrating resilience into the planning process• Resiliency for Cyber security threats• Decision support tools to mitigate extreme weather events
and natural disasters• Innovative approaches and collaborative partnerships
Pathfinder TRB Webinar – 10/28/204
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Pathfinder - Linking to Transportation Asset Management Resilience*
What Can Transportation Agencies Do to Build Resilience
The National Academies of
SCIENCESENGINEERINGMEDICINE
TRBTRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD
Data and Information Systems Section
• Know Your Vulnerabilities• Use the transportation planning process• Incorporate climate risks into design and asset
management• Develop operations and maintenance strategies
* FHWA Office of Planning, Environment, and Realty Sustainability Resilience https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/environment/sustainability/resilience/publications/bcrt_brochure.cfm
Pathfinder TRB Webinar – 10/28/205
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The National Academies of
SCIENCESENGINEERINGMEDICINE
TRBTRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD
Data and Information Systems Section
Pathfinder TRB Webinar – 10/28/20 6
https://ops.fhwa.dot.gov/publications/fhwahop16086/
fhwahop16086.pdf
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Presenters
The National Academies of
SCIENCESENGINEERINGMEDICINE
TRBTRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD
Data and Information Systems Section
• Tony Coventry, FHWATransportation Specialist, Road Weather Management
• Lisa Worthington, California Department of TransportationHQ Maintenance – External Liaison for Fire / Fuels / ForestSacramento, CA
• Kris Mattarochia, National Weather ServiceScience & Operations Officer San Joaquin Valley – Hanford, CA
• Jeff Williams, Utah Department of Transportation – Weather Program Manager / Meteorologist Traffic Operations CenterSalt Lake City, UT
Pathfinder TRB Webinar – 10/28/20 7
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Pathfinder Program Overview
for
TRB Webinar: Finding the Path —Messaging Before, During, and After Weather Events
October 28, 2020
Tony Coventry, Transportation SpecialistFederal Highway Administration (FHWA), Road Weather Management Program (RWMP)
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What is Pathfinder?
Value of Pathfinder
PathfinderPrograms
FHWA Initiative
History of Pathfinder
Collaborative Nature
Major Players
Current Programs
TRB Webinar: Finding the Path--Messaging Before, During, and After Weather Events
Learning Objectives:
Aligned Public Communications
Improved Safety
Improved Mobility
Wide Range of Applications
Implementation Guides
Resource Toolkits
Workshops
Webinars
Case Studies
Peer to Peer Assistance
Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), Road Weather Management Program (RWMP)
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What is Pathfinder…
Source: FHWA
• Operational Strategy used by agencies to effectively inform the traveling public ahead of, during and after adverse road weather conditions to mitigate the impact on the transportation system.
• Collaboration between the National Weather Service (NWS), State departments of transportation (DOTs), and support contractors (and emergency managers/local agencies as needed) to share and translate forecasts into consistent public transportation impact statements
• Goal: Dissemination of public information that is:• Clear • Concise• Impact-based• Consistent
Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), Road Weather Management Program (RWMP)
State DOT
National Weather Service
Emergency Managers, Local
Agencies
Private Sector
Provider
It’s all about collaboration!
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The Evolution of Pathfinder2002
Winter Olympics
2013 Development and Pilot Deployment
2017 - 2018FHWA EDC-4
Initiative
2019 - onwardFHWA Road
Weather Program
Idea born from Utah DOT/NWS Collaboration
Successes
Official Pathfinder Initiative implemented
Push for national deployment via EDC
Program
Becomes part of road weather “toolbox”
Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), Road Weather Management Program (RWMP)
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States Using Pathfinder Strategies
Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), Road Weather Management Program (RWMP)
Source: FHWA
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Pathfinder Uses
Winter Weather
Hurricanes
Dust Storms
Flooding
Wildfires
Special Events
and more…
Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), Road Weather Management Program (RWMP)
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Key Takeaways• Collaboration (new and existing relationships)• Consistent, impact-focused messaging• Wide range of uses• Community experience and support
Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), Road Weather Management Program (RWMP)
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Why Pathfinder?
• Mobility• About 25% of non-recurring delays are due to weather• Congestion costs about $9.5B/year for 85 urban areas*
• Productivity• Weather-related delays add about $3.4B/year to freight
costs
• Environment• Chemicals used for anti-icing affect watersheds, air
quality and infrastructure
*Source: 2015 Urban Mobility Scorecard http://mobility.tamu.edu/ums/
Impacts of Adverse Road Weather
Source: FHWA
Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), Road Weather Management Program (RWMP)
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Pathfinder Strategies
Source: Georgia DOT
Pathfinder Communication strategies can help agencies inform travelers ahead of, during, and after adverse road weather conditions.
Intended Outcome - Drivers are well-informed and able to make safe and efficient travel decisions
Improving Communications• Source credibility• Source familiarity• Message consistency• Message specificity• Message certainty
Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), Road Weather Management Program (RWMP)
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Improving Communications• Source credibility• Source familiarity• Message consistency• Message specificity• Message certainty
Pathfinder Communication Strategies
• Forecast and Weather Impact sources– Personal – 59%– Local TV – 57%– Local radio – 43%– Government sources – 27%
• Objective: Create a high level of trust in messages and warnings from official sources, specifically the NWS, DOT, and other government sources.
• 511• VMS/CMS• HAR• Social Media
Message Certainty
Massage Specificity
Message Consistency
• Traditional Media• Traveler Info Websites• Mobile Apps
Multiple Mediums of Communications
Source: National Weather Service
Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), Road Weather Management Program (RWMP)
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Improving Communications• Source credibility• Source familiarity• Message consistency• Message specificity• Message certainty
Pathfinder Communication Strategies
• Most travelers do not take action based on first indication of risk.
– Wait for, or seek, additional information
– True for a variety of hazard types
• Access to two or more sources conveying the same information significantly increases likelihood of self-protective actions
• More likely to delay or take no action, if messages conflict
• Key component of Pathfinder is to develop common messaging
• NWS offices should direct users to DOT webpages for additional road weather info
• DOTs can link to NWS web pages or forecasts
• Sharing each other’s content is a powerful tool
– Tweets, Facebook posts, etc.– Endorse another trusted voice
Challenge Solution
Source: National Weather Service
Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), Road Weather Management Program (RWMP)
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NOTE: Road sign is not real and does not conform to the MUTCD
Improving Communications• Source credibility• Source familiarity• Message consistency• Message specificity• Message certainty
Pathfinder Communication Strategies
• Provide as much specificity as reasonably possible– “Snowfall is expected to begin accumulating
on roads in the Minneapolis area between 5:00 and 7:00 AM”
• Include specific route information and icons for impacted routes based on collaborated impacts
Source: National Weather Service
Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), Road Weather Management Program (RWMP)
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Improving Communications• Source credibility• Source familiarity• Message consistency• Message specificity• Message certainty
Pathfinder Communication Strategies
• Sharing information on certainty is important in generating response
• One way to do this is with impact or confidence graphics
• Consistent statements, social media as well, etc.
“When I ask local officials to characterize their uncertainty
needs, the conversation almost immediately turns into this
statement, "We want to know how confident the forecaster feels." -
Gina Eosco, Social ScientistSource: National Weather Service
Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), Road Weather Management Program (RWMP)
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Key Takeaways
Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), Road Weather Management Program (RWMP)
• NWS and DOTs are trusted sources and jointmessaging is effective in generating behaviorchange
• Message consistency, specificity and certainty are key factors to effectivecommunication
• Well-informed motorists make better, safer decisions.
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Implementing Pathfinder Strategies
Relationships Communication
Weather Events Messaging
Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), Road Weather Management Program (RWMP)
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Pathfinder Implementation Roadmap• Build upon existing relationships
• Document how things work(primary contacts and backups and operations)
• Clarify roles, responsibilities, and resources
(triggers for communication, expectations, sharing data and messaging)
• Define Communication • Between agency partners• To traveling public
Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), Road Weather Management Program (RWMP)
• Resilient relationships
• Deep relationships - Better understanding of weather and impacts:
Determine roadway impacts from weather events
Develop consistent, impact-based messages and dissemination approaches
• Clear definition of how to collaborate
NWS Chat
Conference calls, ad-hoc “calls” to discuss situations and solutions
• Commitment to continually improving processes
After-event debriefs; lessons learned, what can be improved
Source: Top-National Weather Service, Bottom-blueridgeparkway.org
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Pathfinder Technical AssistanceFHWA provides technical assistance for agencies interested in:
• Awareness/understanding• Implementation• Information exchange
Case Studies and Fact Sheets
Pathfinder Toolkit
Webinars
Workshops
Peer-to-Peer Technical Assistance
Demonstration Site Visits/Peer Exchanges
Videos
Pathfinder Resources are available at https://go.usa.gov/xnSqy
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Pathfinder Project Guidance Workbook
Pathfinder Resources are available at https://go.usa.gov/xnSqy
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Example Pathfinder Workshop Agenda
Pathfinder Resources are available at https://go.usa.gov/xnSqy
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Pathfinder Toolkit
Access the toolkit from FHWA’s Road Weather Management
Exchange Website!
https://go.usa.gov/xnSqy
Pathfinder Resources are available at https://go.usa.gov/xnSqy
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Pathfinder Toolkit
Pathfinder Resources are available at https://go.usa.gov/xnSqy
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Pathfinder Resources• Pathfinder Implementation Guide
• 8-steps for deployment• Webinars
• #1 – DMS Weather Messaging• #2 – Effective Weather Messaging
• Fact Sheets and Case Studies• Pathfinder Overview• Initiating and Growing Pathfinder in Your
State• WSR Benefits and Costs• Implementation Recommendations
• Peer Exchanges• 2018 Summit - Salt Lake City, UT• 2020 Summit - Virtual
• Case Studies• Colorado’s Pathfinder Process• Managing the Total Solar Eclipse –
Wyoming DOT Case Study• Pathfinder at the Local Level – Truckee,
CA• Pathfinder videos
• The Power of Pathfinder• Implementing Pathfinder in Your State• Pathfinder Coordination with NWS• Coordination with Idaho DOT• Coordination with Wyoming DOT
….and more!
Pathfinder Resources are available at https://go.usa.gov/xnSqy
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ContactsFederal Highway Administration• David Johnson, Road Weather Management Team Lead [email protected]• Tony Coventry, Transportation Specialist [email protected]• Ray Murphy, ITS Specialist [email protected]
National Weather Service• Roham Abtahi, Surface Transportation Program Manager [email protected]
23Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), Road Weather Management Program (RWMP)
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TRB Webinar: Finding the PathMessaging Before, During and After Weather Events
October 28, 2020PANEL
Lisa Worthington, Caltrans HQExternal Liaison – Fire/Fuels/Forest Management
[email protected] 530-613-7332 office 916-657-4767
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Case Study: Ferguson FirePREPARE for Winter After Wildfire
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Incident # 5927
Yosemite National Park ‘Arched Rock’ entrance
Midpines MtceStation
Ferguson landslide
El Portal
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Ferguson Fire FACT SHEET Ignition spotted July 13th 2018 9:36 pm – Hwy 140 Hite Cove near El Portal
37 days, 96,901 acres 2 firefighter fatalities, 10 structures
closed Yosemite National Park for 9 days between August 5th -14th
height of summer vacation season 100% contained August 18th
4 Million international visitors per yearNational Wild and Scenic Merced River Canyon
12 miles SR 140 in Mariposa County in District 10 Caltrans Scenic Highway
Sierra & Stanislaus National Forest
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PREPARE actions
WEATHER forecasting
ASSESS watershed
TRIAGE highway
WILDFIRE incident response
Burn Area Response =
PREPARE
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PART 1 WILDFIRE (39 days)
PART 2 TRIAGE (5 days)
PART 3 ASSESS (2 weeks)
PART 4 WEATHER (30 days)
PART 5 PREPARE (3-5 years)
PREPARE has 5 Parts
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PREPARE actions
WEATHER forecasting
ASSESS watershed
TRIAGE highway
WILDFIRE incident response
PREPAREonly works if:
• Messaging occurs reliably before, during
and after weather events
• Interagency partners trust each other in
their line of work
• PREPARE actions are rehearsed enough to
be a springboard for real life decisions
(“Semper Gumby”)
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PART 1 – WILDFIRE
PREPARE actions
WEATHER forecasting
ASSESS watershed
TRIAGE highway
WILDFIRE incident response
• Burn Area Response – no current policy• Wildfire incidents follow ICS• Agency representatives = “Collaborators”• Caltrans should participate at IC base camp• Planning Cycle (daily AM/PM)• If asked, “Can Caltrans do this?” the Agency
representative shall have:o Delegated authority to make decisionso Situational awarenesso Forward-thinking abilityo Diplomacyo Sensitivity to human impactso Watershed-scale trainingo Maintenance or Construction staff ready to go
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PART 2 – TRIAGE
PREPARE actions
WEATHER forecasting
ASSESS watershed
TRIAGE highway
WILDFIRE incident response
• Reset assets• Open and safe• Patrols
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PART 3 – ASSESS
PREPARE actions
WEATHER forecasting
ASSESS watershed
TRIAGE highway
WILDFIRE incident response
• Watershed assessment• Expertise on the front edge of BAER/WERT • Intense, short commitment 2-3 weeks• Lead a tour to share historical knowledge• Request focused modeling of road assets• Prevent delays in mitigation investment• Director’s Orders scope much more focused• Strengthen inter-agency decision making
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What type of assessmenthappens at 80-100%
fire containment?
BAER or WERT … or both?
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BAERThe objective of BAER is to identify imminent post-
wildfire threats to human life and safety, property,
and critical natural or cultural resources on National
Forest System lands and downstream ‘values at risk,’
take immediate actions, as appropriate, to manage
unacceptable risks.
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BAER Measuring soil hydrophobicity in a high-severity burn area on the Ferguson Fire. After creating different depths in the soil, the geologists pour droplets of water onto each depth to determine the extent of how much water soaks into it(hydrophilic) or rolls off of it (hydrophobic).
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BAER
USGS website data when accessing each drainage for debris flow potential. https://landslides.usgs.gov/hazards/postfire_debrisflow/
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WERTWhen wildfire-induced threats to life and safety
are present, a state team of civil engineers,
engineering geologists, hydrologists and
California Department of Forestry and Fire
Protection (CAL FIRE) staff are assembled into a
Watershed Emergency Response Team (WERT)
to evaluate potential life-safety and property
hazards from post-fire debris flows, hyper-
concentrated flows, and flood flows.
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WERT
The primary goal of WERT is to provide a rapid
evaluation of post-fire hazards to
downslope/downstream values-at-risk (VARs),
make recommendations to reduce life safety and
property exposure to these post-fire hazards, and
transfer this mapped information to responsible
local agencies tasked with emergency planning.
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USGS - debris flow potential
https://landslides.usgs.gov/hazards/postfire_debrisflow/
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PART 4 – WEATHER
PREPARE actions
WEATHER forecasting
ASSESS watershed
TRIAGE highway
WILDFIRE incident response
• Weather Decision Tiers• Risk levels change for each fire• Partner with NWS office• Rain threshold!
Presentation continues with a hand-off to Kristian Mattarocchia, NWS
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National Weather Service Hanford, CA & Ca lifornia Depa rtment of Tra nsporta tion:
Colla bora ting to Protect Motorists with PREPARE a nd Pa thfinder
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Ferguson Briceburg Burn Scar Unified Messaging
Pictured: October 3, 2018 Mudslide at Highway 140 towards Yosemite before the one lane bridge across the Merced River
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Lisa Worthington Forest Management Program Manager – CalTrans HQNWS Hanford Forecasters and ITO
Kris Mattarochia NWS Hanford, Science & Operations OfficerChris Smith Chief, Emergency Operations Branch – CalTrans HQ
Dennis T. Agar Director (Former) – District 10Willie Kuhl Chief, Traffic Management Branch - District 10
Steve Takigawa Deputy Director, Maintenance and Operations – CalTrans HQTyler Comerford Weathernet Operations Manager – Narwhal Group
Greg Stock Yosemite National Park – GeologistKevin Packard Mariposa County Sheriff's Office – OES
Rick Lindgren California Highway Patrol Lieutenant – Mariposa AreaRosemarie Smallcombe District 1 Supervisor – Mariposa County
PREPARE Leadership Team
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Timeline
CalTrans PREPARE meeting Agencies work on an easy to understand
plan of action
October 2018
November 2018Weather Decision Tiers Finalized.
June 2019Weather Decision Tiers
Summer VersionFinalized.
October 2019After Action Review of 2018-19.
Weather Decision Tiers re-written for Year 2
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Weather Decision Tiers First Guess
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Debris Flow Risk
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Possible Trouble Spots Along Hwy 140 (From Greg Stock YNP)
Numbers of high sediment delivery locations.
711
13
3619 20
One Lane Bridge
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Weather Decision Tiers Final Draft
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Weather Decision Tiers Forecast
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Weather Decision Tiers Forecast
• Pre-emptive closures of Hwy 140 were made based on this forecast.• The road was closed about 10hrs before HIGH was indicated.• This kept vehicles off the road hours before the worst conditions. CHP Rick Lindgren
• "On Nov. 28 through 29, 2018, Caltrans initiated a 34-hour pre-emptive closure based on Level 3 (high risk) weather predictions of hazardous conditions that would result in impassable sections of SR 140. Four major mudslides occurred and crews hauled out about 2,000 cubic yards of rock, mud, and debris."
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Weather Decision Tiers
From Lisa Worthington – CalTrans HQ, “$3 million saved in 2019 because of
reduced OT staffing in Traffic Management Center and
Emergency Operations Center. These amounts were verified by the
California Auditor General.”
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Weather Decision Tiers Changes for 2019-20
Weathernet/Narwhal Group will be installed another 15 min rain gauge near the top of Feliciana Mountain, paid for and requested by CalTrans.
This will be the only gauge that reports 15 min rainfall rates every 15 minutes.
Weathernet give access to this data as part of thePathfinder initiative. They worked extensively with UDOT and the Salt Lake City office when Pathfinder was beginning.
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NWS Winter Storm Severity Index + CalTrans Operation Snowflake
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Christmas 2019I-5/ Hwy 58
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Questions?
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Utah Pathfinder Collaboration
Federal Government
State Government
Private Sector
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About Jeff Williams• B.S. Atmospheric Sciences, University of Northern Colorado
• National Weather Service (SLC), Intern
• DayWeather, Forecast Services Manager
• NorthWest Weathernet, Regional Manager
• UDOT, Weather Program Manager
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Weather and Travel Time Reliability
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Economic Impact of Road Weather EventsEconomic impact in Utah for a 24 hour statewide winter storm
Total Economic Impact$66.36 million
• Wages & Salaries• $42.81 Million
• Retail Sales • $18.26 million
• Federal Taxes• $3.32 million
• State and Local Taxes• $1.98 million
Source: American Highway Users Alliance performed by IHS Global Insight (2009)
Statesandprovincescoveredbythestudyinclude:Illinois, $400 million lost per dayIndiana, $157 million lost per dayIowa, $70 million lost per dayKentucky, $96 million lost per dayMaryland, $184 million lost per dayMassachusetts, $265 million lost per dayMichigan, $251 million lost per dayMinnesota, $167 million lost per dayMissouri, $162 million lost per dayNew Jersey, $289 million lost per dayNew York, $700 million lost per dayOhio, $300 million lost per dayPennsylvania, $370 million lostUtah,$66millionlostperdayVirginia, $260 million lost per dayWisconsin, $149 million lost per dayOntario, $474 million lost per dayQuebec, $250 million lost per day
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Collaboration“Not how much snow will fall but how that snow will impact the roads”
What When Where
Overarching Message
Type of storm and
how intense
When will it impact the
state
Highlight specific areas
of travel concern
Provide tools to influence safe
traveling behavior
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Collaboration Rules of Thumb- Focus on the “message”, not the meteorology.
• “First, it should be understood that forecasts possess no intrinsic value. They acquire value through their ability to influence the decisions made by users of the forecasts.” – Allan Murphy
- Don’t instruct the public. Give them tools to make the best decision.
- Detail road specific impacts concerning timing and intensity
- Share plans of action• UDOT (outreach, products, etc.)• NWS (suite of information services)
- Monitor how the media has represented the event
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Challenges with Criteria- ½” of road snow during the evening commute can create a greater impact than 4”
overnight
- NWS watch and warning times will likely not match road weather impact times
- Direction of winds are crucial to UDOT while speeds meet NWS criteria
- Criteria for standing water/flooding, rockfall, fog/reduced visibilities, mudslides, blowing dust/snow may not align between UDOT and NWS
- Construction concerns usually begin well below watch/warning criteria
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Utah Pathfinder Benefits- Unified Message
• Informed travelers• Cohesive weather impact statements enable drivers to make better decisions regarding whether or when to
travel• Optimize mobility
• Decrease congestion• Increase snow plow effectiveness
- Sharing Resources• Share weather observations
• NWS Weather Spotters• Snow plow reports• Citizen Reporter program• Traffic cameras
• Shared tools• NWS high resolution local modeling• UDOT pan/tilt/zoom camera access• Portable RWIS trailers• Satellite communications
- Improved Safety, Mobility, and Economy- Negligible Costs
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January 2013 Case Study
Study of Driver Awareness and Response to Winter StormsPartnered by UDOT, NWS, and the University of Utah
Barjenbruch et al. 2016 (Weather, Climate, and Society)
• Two events were surveyed• Heavy snow, PM commute (January 10)• Freezing rain, AM commute (January 24)
• 400 surveys completed per event• Awareness of weather forecast• Sources of weather and road information• Modification of travel plans
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January 2013 Case StudyMany indicated that they modified their travel plans
Most heavily utilized sourcesPersonal sources – 59%
Local TV – 57%Local radio – 43%
Government sources – 27%
Type of Change PercentChanged schedule Changed route Did not travel Used mass transit
62%26%13%6%
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Actual Behavior ChangePM Commute Travel Data Comparison – Salt Lake County
Jan 10th, 2013 (Snow Event) vs Jan 17th, 2013 (Dry Conditions)
Blue – Snow Event Red – Dry Conditions
Weather ConditionsOn Snow Event Day
Noon: 49 F, dry and partly
sunny
2 PM: 36 F, dry conditions
5 PM: 2” per hour snowfall
rates
Key Observations:• Commute peak shifted by
2 hours • 43% less volume during
typical peak• Peak occurred before it
began snowing!
• Predictor of behavior change:
• Gov’t & personal sources
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President’s Day Holiday Weekend
7MajorSkiResorts-All within 40 minutes of SLC airport -2nd Busiest Ski Holiday-Estimated 50% increase comparedto normal ski weekends
St.George,Utah-3-4 hour drive from Salt Lake-Las Vegas Climate
St. George
SLC
Scipio
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2017 vs. 2018 President’s Day Weather2018
Large winter storm from late Sun through Tue morning- Up to 25” of snow ski resorts and valley benches
- St. George weekend weather: Highs 60s, sunny and dry
2017Unorganized and mild winter storm
- High mountain road snow impacts, valley rain showers- St. George: Highs 50s with rain showers
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Pre-Storm VMS Signs Posted(2-3 days prior to storm)
Expired: Sunday 6:00 PM
Expired (for R2): Sunday 12:00 PMExpired (for R3): Sunday 3:00 PM
Expired: Sunday 9:00 AM
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Friday – Saturday “Vehicle Miles Traveled”Wasatch Front Metro to St. George
8%15% 16% 27% 8%
20%
20%
25%
17%
17%
18%
23%
26% 17%14%
20%13% 16%
17%
13% 37%
24%
5%
9%
8%
16%20% 33% 19%
34%
32%
34%
28%
27%
23%4%
11% 21%12% 18%
17% 15%
24%
16%
19%
22%
21%
19%15%
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
0:00
1:00
2:00
3:00
4:00
5:00
6:00
7:00
8:00
9:00
10:0
0
11:0
0
12:0
0
13:0
0
14:0
0
15:0
0
16:0
0
17:0
0
18:0
0
19:0
0
20:0
0
21:0
0
22:0
0
23:0
0
0:00
1:00
2:00
3:00
4:00
5:00
6:00
7:00
8:00
9:00
10:0
0
11:0
0
12:0
0
13:0
0
14:0
0
15:0
0
16:0
0
17:0
0
18:0
0
19:0
0
20:0
0
21:0
0
22:0
0
23:0
0
0:00
VMT
Friday-Saturday
President's Day Weekend 2017 vs. 2018Friday and Saturday Southbound Travel
I-15 SB MP 250 (Scipio) - MP 0 (St. George)
2017 2018
Friday+18.3%
Saturday+17.1%
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Sunday – Tuesday “Vehicle Miles Traveled”St. George to Wasatch Front Metro
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
0:00
1:00
2:00
3:00
4:00
5:00
6:00
7:00
8:00
9:00
10:0
011
:00
12:0
013
:00
14:0
015
:00
16:0
017
:00
18:0
019
:00
20:0
021
:00
22:0
023
:00
0:00
1:00
2:00
3:00
4:00
5:00
6:00
7:00
8:00
9:00
10:0
011
:00
12:0
013
:00
14:0
015
:00
16:0
017
:00
18:0
019
:00
20:0
021
:00
22:0
023
:00
0:00
1:00
2:00
3:00
4:00
5:00
6:00
7:00
8:00
9:00
10:0
011
:00
12:0
013
:00
14:0
015
:00
16:0
017
:00
18:0
019
:00
20:0
021
:00
22:0
023
:00
0:00
VMT
Sunday-Monday-Tuesday
President's Day Weekend 2017 vs. 2018Sunday-Tuesday Northbound Travel
I-15 NB MP 0 (St. George) - 250 (Scipio)
2017 2018
Sunday+50.1%
Monday (holiday)-5.4%
Tuesday+61.8%
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Utah Burn Scar Statistics
- 19 burn scars have impacted UDOT roads since 2012• Road closures have occurred on several occasions• Fatalities have occurred due to blowing dust and crashes due to debris
on the road• Mitigation efforts can be significant
- Typically requires 3 to 5 years for burn scars to heal• 1 burn scar has healed for debris flows, but not for avalanches• Avalanche paths are treated as permanent burn scars in Little
Cottonwood Canyon
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Utah Debris Flow Assessment- NWS and NFS hydrologists and Utah Geological Survey
• Assess burn scar on-site• Via hiking, helicopter, or drones
• Assess fire intensity• Identify critical infrastructure that could be impacted• Establish debris flow rainfall rates for entire burn scar• Sediment types and rock fall hazards• “A new burn scar can produce flooding of 10-20 times the 100-year flood • event”
– Richard Giraud (Utah Geological Survey)
- UDOT Weather Program• Use fire intensity maps• Follow the drainages no matter how far the origin is from the road!• Assess capability of infrastructures• Assess transportable ash and fire debris• No fire is too small to cause impacts• Establish rainfall rates specifically for UDOT roads
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Utah Debris Flow Resources
- Weather Station Deployment• Coordinate with NWS and NFS• NWS can deploy Utah Dept of Public Safety tripod weather stations• UDOT mobile weather stations
• 6 tripod weather stations• Designed to be deployed for 3 to 5 years
• 5 RWIS trailers• Cameras are very valuable where radar coverage is poor
• Weather station automatic alerting• UDOT UPLAN – Burn Scar Monitoring• UDOT Emergency Management
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Fire Intensity Maps
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Presenter Information#TRBWebinar
• Moderator: Jack Stickel, Tempestas Enterprises• Tony Coventry, FHWA• Lisa Worthington, California DOT• Kris Mattarochia, National Weather Service• Jeff Williams, Utah DOT
![Page 96: Finding the Path – Messaging Before, During, and After ...onlinepubs.trb.org/onlinepubs/webinars/201028.pdfIgnition spotted July 13 th 2018 9:36 pm – Hwy 140 Hite Cove near El](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022071509/612a242bb299c02a641c7a7a/html5/thumbnails/96.jpg)
Get Involved with TRB
#TRBwebinarReceive emails about upcoming TRB webinarshttps://bit.ly/TRBemails
Find upcoming conferenceshttp://www.trb.org/Calendar
![Page 97: Finding the Path – Messaging Before, During, and After ...onlinepubs.trb.org/onlinepubs/webinars/201028.pdfIgnition spotted July 13 th 2018 9:36 pm – Hwy 140 Hite Cove near El](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022071509/612a242bb299c02a641c7a7a/html5/thumbnails/97.jpg)
Get Involved with TRB
Be a Friend of a Committee bit.ly/TRBcommittees– Networking opportunities
– May provide a path to Standing Committee membership
Join a Standing Committee bit.ly/TRBstandingcommittee
Work with CRP https://bit.ly/TRB-crp
Update your information www.mytrb.org
#TRBwebinar
Getting involved is free!
![Page 98: Finding the Path – Messaging Before, During, and After ...onlinepubs.trb.org/onlinepubs/webinars/201028.pdfIgnition spotted July 13 th 2018 9:36 pm – Hwy 140 Hite Cove near El](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022071509/612a242bb299c02a641c7a7a/html5/thumbnails/98.jpg)
TRB’s Annual Meeting Registration is Open!
• 100th TRB Annual Meeting is fully virtual in January 2021
• Continue to promote with hashtag #TRBAM• Registration is open!• Check our website for more information
![Page 99: Finding the Path – Messaging Before, During, and After ...onlinepubs.trb.org/onlinepubs/webinars/201028.pdfIgnition spotted July 13 th 2018 9:36 pm – Hwy 140 Hite Cove near El](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022071509/612a242bb299c02a641c7a7a/html5/thumbnails/99.jpg)
#TRB100