financialization & economic development
TRANSCRIPT
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Financialization &
Economic Development“Tezer YELKENCİ”
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THE LONG RUN CAUSALITY BETWEEN FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT AND
ECONOMIC GROWTH HAS BEEN INSPECTED BY A
LARGE AND EXPANDING LITERATURE, AND IT
REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
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Izmir University of Economics ECON426 May 2011
AgendaIntroduction
Empirical Framework
Data
Results
Conclusion
Definitions Motivation
Testing for integration Testing for panel unit root Testing for panel cointegration
ADF unit root test Im, Pesaran and Shin panel unit root test Pedroni (Engle Granger based) panel cointegration test Economic growth regressions
Literature Review Dimitris K. Christopoulos and Efthymios G. Tsiones, 2004, Financial Development and Economic Growth M. Kabir Hassan, Benito Sanchez and Jung-Suk Yu, 2010, Financial Development and Economic Growth Chien-Chiang Lee and Chum-Ping Chang, 2009; FDI, Financial Development, and Economic Growth
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Fin
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aliz
ati
on
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d E
con
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Develo
pm
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tAgenda
Introduction
Empirical Framework
Data
Results
Conclusion
Definitions Motivation
Testing for integration Testing for panel unit root Testing for panel cointegration
ADF unit root test Im, Pesaran and Shin panel unit root test Pedroni (Engle Granger based) panel cointegration test Economic growth regressions
Literature Review Dimitris K. Christopoulos and Efthymios G. Tsiones, 2004, Financial Development and Economic Growth M. Kabir Hassan, Benito Sanchez and Jung-Suk Yu, 2010, Financial Development and Economic Growth Chien-Chiang Lee and Chum-Ping Chang, 2009; FDI, Financial Development, and Economic Growth
Izmir University of Economics ECON426 May 2011
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Intr
od
uct
ion
Definitions
Financialization
Izmir University of Economics ECON426 May 2011
A term that describes an economic system or process that attempts to reduce all value that is exchanged (whether tangible, intangible, future or present promises, etc.) either into a financial instrument or a derivative of a financial instrument.
Economic Development
The increase in the standard of living in a nation's population with sustained growth from a simple, low-income economy to a modern, high-income economy.
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Intr
od
uct
ion
Motivation
Izmir University of Economics ECON426 May 2011
Financialization
Economic Growth
Turkey
East Europe Countries & Middle-East Countries
?
?
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Fin
anci
aliz
ati
on
an
d E
con
om
ic
Develo
pm
en
tAgenda
Introduction
Empirical Framework
Data
Results
Conclusion
Definitions Motivation
Testing for integration Testing for panel unit root Testing for panel cointegration
ADF unit root test Im, Pesaran and Shin panel unit root test Pedroni (Engle Granger based) panel cointegration test Economic growth regressions
Literature Review Dimitris K. Christopoulos and Efthymios G. Tsiones, 2004, Financial Development and Economic Growth M. Kabir Hassan, Benito Sanchez and Jung-Suk Yu, 2010, Financial Development and Economic Growth Chien-Chiang Lee and Chum-Ping Chang, 2009; FDI, Financial Development, and Economic Growth
Izmir University of Economics ECON426 May 2011
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Lite
ratu
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evie
wDimitris K. Christopoulos and Efthymios G. Tsiones, 2004, Financial Development and
Economic Growth
Methodology
Izmir University of Economics ECON426 May 2011
ADF unit root test Panel unit root test Panel cointegration test Johansen cointegration test
Conclusion
Long-run causality runs from financial development to growth, that the relationship is significant, and that there is no evidence of bi-directional causality.
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Lite
ratu
re R
evie
wM. Kabir Hassan, Benito Sanchez and Jung-Suk
Yu, 2010, Financial Development and Economic Growth
Izmir University of Economics ECON426 May 2011
Methodology
Weighted least square regression Vector autoregressive model
Conclusion
There has been a positive association between finance and economic growth for developing countries but contradictory results for high-income countries; moreover, well-functioning financial systems may boost economic growth in middle and low income countries.
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Lite
ratu
re R
evie
wChien-Chiang Lee and Chum-Ping Chang,
2009; FDI, Financial Development, and Economic Growth
Izmir University of Economics ECON426 May 2011
Methodology
Panel unit root test Pedroni’s panel cointegration test Likelihood-based cointegration test
Conclusion
An increase in FDI will likely produce a rise in domestic credit, and once this financial development indicator has crystallized to a desired level, the favorable effects of FDI on growth should be realized.
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Fin
anci
aliz
ati
on
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d E
con
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Develo
pm
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tAgenda
Introduction
Empirical Framework
Data
Results
Conclusion
Definitions Motivation
Testing for integration Testing for panel unit root Testing for panel cointegration
ADF unit root test Im, Pesaran and Shin panel unit root test Pedroni (Engle Granger based) panel cointegration test Economic growth regressions
Literature Review Dimitris K. Christopoulos and Efthymios G. Tsiones, 2004, Financial Development and Economic Growth M. Kabir Hassan, Benito Sanchez and Jung-Suk Yu, 2010, Financial Development and Economic Growth Chien-Chiang Lee and Chum-Ping Chang, 2009; FDI, Financial Development, and Economic Growth
Izmir University of Economics ECON426 May 2011
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Em
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Izmir University of Economics ECON426 May 2011
Testing for Panel Unit Root
Testing for Integration
Panel Least Squares
Testing for Panel Cointegration
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Regression Model
Izmir University of Economics ECON426 May 2011
Where;y = Growth of real GDP per capitaZ = the log of GDP per capitaS = Gross domestic savings as percentage of GDPTRD = Imports plus exports as percantage of GDPGE = Government final consumption expenditure as percantage of GDPP = Log of one plus inflation rateFD = DCBS or M3
Where;DCBS = Domestic credit provided by banking sector
as percentage of GDPM3 = Liquid liabilities as percentage of GDP
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Testing for Integration
Izmir University of Economics ECON426 May 2011
Method: Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test
Lag Specification: Akaike Information Criterion
Where; Null Hypothesis: The variable has a unit root
Alternative Hypothesis: The variable doesn’t have a unit root
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Em
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Testing forPanel Unit Root Panel Cointegration
Izmir University of Economics ECON426 May 2011
Method: Im, Pesaran and Shin panel unit root test
Method: Pedroni (Engle Granger based) panel cointegration test
Where;
Null Hypothesis: The variable has a unit root
Alternative Hypothesis: The variable doesn’t have a unit root
Where;
Null Hypothesis: No cointegrationAlternative Hypothesis: Cointegration
Lag Specification: Akaike Information Criterion
Lag Specification: Akaike Information Criterion
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Fin
anci
aliz
ati
on
an
d E
con
om
ic
Develo
pm
en
tAgenda
Introduction
Empirical Framework
Data
Results
Conclusion
Definitions Motivation
Testing for integration Testing for panel unit root Testing for panel cointegration
ADF unit root test Im, Pesaran and Shin panel unit root test Pedroni (Engle Granger based) panel cointegration test Economic growth regressions
Literature Review Dimitris K. Christopoulos and Efthymios G. Tsiones, 2004, Financial Development and Economic Growth M. Kabir Hassan, Benito Sanchez and Jung-Suk Yu, 2010, Financial Development and Economic Growth Chien-Chiang Lee and Chum-Ping Chang, 2009; FDI, Financial Development, and Economic Growth
Izmir University of Economics ECON426 May 2011
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Data
Data
Izmir University of Economics ECON426 May 2011
World Development Indicators
Published by the World Bank over the period 1980–2008.
27 countries included in terms of similarity with Turkey
Turkey Hungary Algeria Egypt Iran Jordan Kuwait Morocco Saudi Arabia Syrian Aran Republic Tunisia Armenia Azerbaijan Belarus Georgia
Ukraine Croatia Czech Republic Greece Macedonia
Serbia Slovenia Estonia Latvia Lithuania Moldova Luxembourg
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Fin
anci
aliz
ati
on
an
d E
con
om
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Develo
pm
en
tAgenda
Introduction
Empirical Framework
Data
Results
Conclusion
Definitions Motivation
Testing for integration Testing for panel unit root Testing for panel cointegration
ADF unit root test Im, Pesaran and Shin panel unit root test Pedroni (Engle Granger based) panel cointegration test Economic growth regressions
Literature Review Dimitris K. Christopoulos and Efthymios G. Tsiones, 2004, Financial Development and Economic Growth M. Kabir Hassan, Benito Sanchez and Jung-Suk Yu, 2010, Financial Development and Economic Growth Chien-Chiang Lee and Chum-Ping Chang, 2009; FDI, Financial Development, and Economic Growth
Izmir University of Economics ECON426 May 2011
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Resu
lts
Im, Pesaran and Shin Panel Unit Root Tests
Izmir University of Economics ECON426 May 2011
VariablesLevels First differences
IPS IPS
Trade (% of GDP) (TRADE) 0.08482 -1.65991***
Liquid liabilities (% of GDP) (M3) 2.33714 -8.69737***
Inflation, consumer prices (P) -1.38438 -3.16616***
Gross domestic savings (% of GDP) (S) 0.22817 -18.6448***
General government final consumption expenditure (% of GDP)(GE) -1.64193* -13.8212***
GDP per capita (GGDP) 12.4481 -6.43033***
Domestic credit provided by banking sector (% of GDP)(DCBS) 1.76524 -11.1841***
• * , ** and *** indicate statistical significance at the 10%, 5% and 1% level respectively.• IPS is the Im, Pesaran and Shin t-test for a unit root in the model.
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Resu
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Augmented Dickey-Fuller Unit Root Tests
Izmir University of Economics ECON426 May 2011
Country GGDP GE M3
Levels Diff Levels Diff Levels Diff
Turkey -6.26 -6.13*** -1.26 -5.10*** -0.24 -5.92***Hungary -2.37 -5.70*** -2.41 -5.98*** -2.37 -3.21**Algeria -2.94* -5.41*** -2.15* -4.21*** -2.98* -3.24**Egypt -4.54*** -10.10 -2.07 -2.38*** -1.77 -2.67*Iran -3.35** -5.43*** -2.53 -2.09** -1.43 -3.15**Jordan -2.43 -10.21*** -1.99 -5.54*** -2.69* -1.80
Country DCBS S P TRADE
Levels Diff Levels Diff Levels Diff Levels Diff
Turkey -0.96 -5.53***
-2.54* -4.87*** -1.44 -7.08*** -1.99 -4.64***
Hungary -2.52 -3.39** -3.28** -4.27*** -1.40 -4.58*** -1.30 -3.50**Algeria 0.90 -
3.76***-0.49 -3.89*** -1.53 -4.60*** -1.23 -4.08***
Egypt -3.74***
-2.54 -2.65* -6.73*** -1.20 -8.12*** -2.65* -3.93***
Iran -2.73* -3.95***
-1.15 -3.26** -3.46** -5.52*** -0.06 -5.15***
Jordan -2.60 -2.79* -1.46 -5.16*** -3.31** -4.60*** -2.95* -3.20**
• * , ** and *** indicate statistical significance at the 10%, 5% and 1% level respectively.• The null hypothesis for the ADF test is that the series is non-stationary. Maximum lags were set at 5 and lag length is determined using the modified AIC criterion. • Levels and Diff denote the augmented Dickey-Fuller t-tests for a unit root in levels and first differences respectively.• GGDP refers to the growth of the real GDP per capita, GE refers to government final consumption expenditure as percentage of GDP, and M3 refers to liquid liabilities as percentage of GDP.
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Resu
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Pedroni (Engle Granger based) Panel Cointegration Tests
Izmir University of Economics ECON426 May 2011
TestPedroni (Engle Granger Based )
Statistics
Panel-v -1.876099
Panel-p -1.861387**
Panel-t -8.773494***
Panel-adf -8.105795***
Group-p 0.195285
Group-t -11.42351***
Group-adf -7.920420***
Dependant Variable: Economic Growth
• * , ** and *** indicate statistical significance at the 10%, 5% and 1% level respectively.
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Resu
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Pedroni (Engle Granger based) Panel Cointegration Tests
Izmir University of Economics ECON426 May 2011
Dependant Variable: Financial Development
TestPedroni (Engle Granger Based )
Statistics
Panel-v -1.605357
Panel-p 1.913495
Panel-t -0.114741
Panel-adf -1.644388**
Group-p 4.155627
Group-t -0.468908
Group-adf -2.187947**• * , ** and *** indicate statistical significance at the 10%, 5% and 1% level respectively.
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Resu
lts
Economic Growth Regressions
Izmir University of Economics ECON426 May 2011
Dependent Variable: GGDPCoefficien
t Std. Error t-StatisticMethod: Panel Least Squares C 0.921594 0.029868 3.085508***Included observations: 574 Z -0.125909 0.034989 -3.598509 DCBS -0.034700 0.007356 -4.717433***
S -0.047846 0.017813 -2.685980***GE -0.299874 0.047015 -6.378271**P -0.005251 0.000739 -7.103047***
TRADE 0.029658 0.005305 5.590477**R-squared 0.176363 S.E. of regression 5.568599Adjusted R-squared 0.167647 Sum squared resid 1758227Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000 Mean dependent var 2.610380Hannan-Quinn criter. 6.304988 S.D. dependent var 6.103687
Log likelihood -1.796590Akaike info criterion 6.284284
F-statistic 2.023499 Schwarz criterion 6.337365
Durbin-Watson stat 1.022821 • * , ** and *** indicate statistical significance at the 10%, 5% and 1% level respectively.
• GGDP refers to the growth of the real GDP per capita, GE refers to government final consumption expenditure as percentage of GDP, M3 refers to liquid liabilities as percentage of GDP, DCBS refers to domestic credit provided by banking sector as percentage of GDP, S refers to gross domestic savings as percentage of GDP, and P refers to inflation rate, consumer prices, and TRADE refers to imports plus exports as percentage of GDP.
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Resu
lts
Economic Growth Regressions
Izmir University of Economics ECON426 May 2011
• * , ** and *** indicate statistical significance at the 10%, 5% and 1% level respectively.• GGDP refers to the growth of the real GDP per capita, GE refers to government final consumption expenditure as percentage of GDP, M3 refers to liquid liabilities as percentage of GDP, DCBS refers to domestic credit provided by banking sector as percentage of GDP, S refers to gross domestic savings as percentage of GDP, and P refers to inflation rate, consumer prices, and TRADE refers to imports plus exports as percentage of GDP.
Dependent Variable: GGDP Coefficient Std. Error t-StatisticMethod: Panel Least Squares C 6.640.536 1.575.982 4.213585***Included observations: 451 Z 0.059450 0.250979 0.236873 M3 -0.030683 0.010351 -2.964219***
S -0.052202 0.021745 -2.400636**GE -0.283918 0.052972 -5.359790***P -0.005193 0.000763 -6.808556***
TRADE 0.037078 0.008624 4.299501**R-squared 0.182814 S.E. of regression 5.710585Adjusted R-squared 0.171771 Sum squared resid 1447919Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000 Mean dependent var 2.109145Hannan-Quinn criter. 6.363069 S.D. dependent var 6.274880Log likelihood -1.422201 Akaike info criterion 6.337919F-statistic 1.655469 Schwarz criterion 6.401734Durbin-Watson stat 1.099455
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Fin
anci
aliz
ati
on
an
d E
con
om
ic
Develo
pm
en
tAgenda
Introduction
Empirical Framework
Data
Results
Conclusion
Definitions Motivation
Testing for integration Testing for panel unit root Testing for panel cointegration
ADF unit root test Im, Pesaran and Shin panel unit root test Pedroni (Engle Granger based) panel cointegration test Economic growth regressions
Literature Review Dimitris K. Christopoulos and Efthymios G. Tsiones, 2004, Financial Development and Economic Growth M. Kabir Hassan, Benito Sanchez and Jung-Suk Yu, 2010, Financial Development and Economic Growth Chien-Chiang Lee and Chum-Ping Chang, 2009; FDI, Financial Development, and Economic Growth
Izmir University of Economics ECON426 May 2011
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Con
clu
sionConclusion
Izmir University of Economics ECON426 May 2011
Cross-sectional data leave question marks for in terms of the correlation that occurs as a result of non-stationary.
Time series data provides unreliable results in terms of short time spans of typical data sets.
Financialization has a significant positive effect on economic growth for Turkey, east european countries and middle-east countries.
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Thank YouFor
LISTENINGTh
ank
You
Izmir University of Economics ECON426 May 2011