financial system stability: impact on real sector
TRANSCRIPT
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Financial system stability: Impacts on real sectorBatpurev A. (MSc)Mongolian Capital Market Council
Discover Mongolia Forum 2016-9-8
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Financial system includes many sectors and affects all
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Financial system stability is not only about financial institutions’ stability
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Foreign sector pressures on BOP increasing(caused by sudden decrease in export & FDI)
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Monetary policy indicators remain unfavorable
MNT/USD (left) MNT/EUR (right) Data: MB
MNT/RMB (left) MNT/RUB (right) Data: MB
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Banking sector still vulnerable
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
NPL by sectors
Whole & retail ConstructionProductionGross loan
Real estate MiningOthersGross loan
Source: Bank of Mongolia
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Under-development of Financial market makes situation worse
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Irresponsible fiscal policy – Budget on the edge of cliff
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Financial system instability holds real sector back Personal loan
growth (right axis. Annual
%)
Total outstanding loan
(left axis. bln MNT) Data: Mongolbank
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Financial crisis to Economic recession?
Are policy responses in right direction?
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Options of short run policy response
Foreign sector shock
Unfavorable monetary indicators
Irresponsible fiscal policy
Vulnerable financial
institutions
Underdeveloped financial
market
Real sector recession
Debt restructuring
Privatization of strategic companies
IMF - Standby arrangement
Globalization of financial sector
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Restructuring debts at higher cost
Bonds Coupon
Principal/
Mln.USD
Price*
Yield Maturity date
DBM bond 5.75 580 96.48 12.701
2017-03-21
DBM bond / Samurai
1.25 290 104.50
0.856 2023-12-25
Mongol 2018 4.125 500 9654 6.460 2018-01-05Mongol 2022 5.125 1000 88.17 7.427 2022-12-05Mongol 2018 / dim sum
7.5 150 94.80 10.518
2018-06-30
Mongol 2021 10.875 500 104.95
9.364 2021-04-06
*As of 2016-09-04
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Privatizations of strategic mines require political will
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IMF, friend or foe?
SDR interest rate at o.o5% floor level
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Financial sector integration requires fundamental reform
• No foreign bank• Limited foreign
ownership• Simple deposit to loan
business model
Banks
96%• Insufficient portfolio investment • Almost no foreign investment fund• Inefficient insurance industry• Lack of market infrastructure
Non-bank financial industry
4%
• Limited access to
capital • High financing
cost • Short maturity • Growth
inclusiveness lack
• Risk management unavailability
• Captured regulation
• Bad corporate governance, transparency & Investor protection
• No confidence
Dom
estic
fina
ncia
l as
set a
lloca
tion
🚪🔓
🌐 International financial market- Capital
- Technology & Knowhow - Rules & regulation
- External risk exposure but more opportunity to manage risk
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Thank [email protected], www.capitalmongolia.com
BBE Consulting LLC&
Mongolian Capital Market
Council2016