financial conference - transalta 2013 48th annual eei financial...generation company proven track...
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48th Annual EEI
Financial Conference November 2013
Brett Gellner, Chief Financial Officer
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This presentation may contain forward-looking statements pertaining to the following: the timing and the completion and commissioning of projects under
development including major projects and their attendant costs; our estimated spend on matters relating to the recent flood in Alberta; spend on growth and
sustaining capital and productivity projects; expectations in terms of the cost of operations, capital spend, and maintenance, and the variability of those
costs; the impact of certain hedges on future reported earnings and cash flows; expectations related to future earnings and cash flow from operating and
contracting activities; estimates of fuel supply and demand conditions and the costs of procuring fuel; expectations for demand for electricity in both the
short term and long term, and the resulting impact on electricity prices; expected impacts of anticipated turnarounds, load growth, increased capacity, and
natural gas costs on power prices; expectations in respect of generation availability, capacity, and production; expected governmental regulatory regimes
and legislation and their expected impact on us, as well as the cost of complying with resulting regulations and laws; our trading strategy and the risk
involved in these strategies; estimates of future tax rates, future tax expense, and the adequacy of tax provisions; accounting estimates; anticipated growth
rates in our markets; expectations for the outcome of existing or potential legal and contractual claims; expected financing of our capital expenditures;
expectations for the ability to access capital markets at reasonable terms; the estimated impact of changes in interest rates and the value of the Canadian
dollar relative to the U.S. dollar and the Australian dollar; the monitoring of our exposure to liquidity risk; expectations in respect to the global economic
environment; our credit practices and the estimated contribution of Energy Trading activities to gross margin.
Factors that may adversely impact our forward-looking statements include risks relating to: fluctuations in market prices and the availability of fuel supplies
required to generate electricity; our ability to contract our generation for prices that will provide expected returns; the regulatory and political environments
in the jurisdictions in which we operate; environmental requirements and changes in, or liabilities under, these requirements; changes in general economic
conditions including interest rates; operational risks involving our facilities, including unplanned outages at such facilities; disruptions in the transmission
and distribution of electricity; the effects of weather; disruptions in the source of fuels, water, or wind required to operate our facilities; natural disasters; the
threat of domestic terrorism and cyber-attacks; equipment failure; energy trading risks; industry risk and competition; fluctuations in the value of foreign
currencies and foreign political risks; the need for additional financing; structural subordination of securities; counterparty credit risk; insurance coverage;
our provision for income taxes; legal and contractual proceedings involving the Corporation; reliance on key personnel; labor relations matters and the
successful completion of development projects and acquisitions. The foregoing risk factors, among others, are described in further detail in the Risk
Management section of our 2012 Annual MD&A and under the heading “Risk Factors” in our 2013 Annual Information Form.
Except to the extent required by law, we assume no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward looking statements, whether as a result of new
information, future events or otherwise. All forward looking statements in this presentation are expressly qualified in their entirety by these cautionary
statements. For information on our risks please refer to our 2013 Annual Information Form which has been filed on SEDAR and can be accessed at
www.sedar.com.
Unless otherwise specified, all dollar amounts are expressed in Canadian dollars.
This presentation may contain references to comparable earnings, comparable earnings per share, comparable EBITDA, funds from operations, and funds
from operations per share which are not defined under IFRS. Refer to the Non-IFRS financial measures section of TransAlta’s 2012 annual MD&A for an
explanation and, where applicable, reconciliations to net earnings attributable to common shareholders and cash flow from operating activities. The
presentation may also contain references to gross margin and operating income, which are Additional IFRS measures. Please refer to the Additional IFRS
measures section of the MD&A.
Forward Looking Statements
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Leading Diversified Power
Generation Company
Proven Track Record
Sound Financial and
Business Profile
Disciplined Growth
• ~9,200 MW spanning multiple fuels and
markets
• Over 75 facilities
• ~2,400 MW of renewable energy
• 100 years of operating history
• Disciplined approach to capital allocation
• Highly contracted asset base
• Investment grade credit ratings
• Robust access to capital
• Significant cash flow upside post-PPA
• ~1,800 MWs added over past 5 years
• Located in markets with strong
fundamentals
• TransAlta Renewables and strategic
partnerships to fund growth
TransAlta – Key Messages
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Our Business
Canada’s largest publicly traded wholesale power
generator & marketer with over 100 years of operating
experience
Diversified asset base with over 75 facilities
strategically positioned in Canada, Western U.S. and
Western Australia
Total fleet capacity of ~9,200 MWs
Our business lines:
• Coal
• Gas
• Renewable energy (Hydro, Wind, Geothermal)
• Energy trading, which optimizes our other
business lines
Sponsor and majority owner of TransAlta Renewables
Listed on Toronto and New York stock exchanges
Coal:
4,926 MW1
Gas:
1,916 MW1
Hydro:
919 MW1
Wind:
1,273MW1
Geothermal:
164 MW1
1Net Capacity Ownership Interest. Includes 100% of TransAlta Renewables’ assets.
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20001
20131
Strategic Evolution of TransAlta
Actively shifting our business mix by
growing renewables
1Net Capacity Ownership Interest. Includes 100% of TransAlta Renewables’ assets.
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British Columbia 4 hydro
77 MW
Alberta 4 hydro
21 MW
10 wind
417 MW
Ontario 4 hydro
7 MW
3 wind
398 MW
Quebec 1 wind
68 MW
New Brunswick 2 wind
125 MW
Bone Creek 19MW
Upper Mamquam 25MW
Pingston 23MW
Akolkolex 10MW
Summerview One 70MW
Sinnott 7MW
Castle River 44MW
Belly River 3MW
Waterton 3MW
Cowley North 20MW
Summerview Two 66MW
Macleod Flats 3MW Blue Trail 66MW
Soderglen 35MW Taylor Hydro 13MW McBride Lake 38MW
Ardenville 69MW
St. Mary 2MW Misema 3MW
Moose Rapids 1MW
Appleton 1MW
Galetta 2MW
Wolfe Island 198MW
Melancthon One 68MW
Melancthon Two 132MW
New Richmond 68MW
Kent Hills One 80MW
Kent Hills Two 45MW
High Quality Diversified Portfolio 5 Operating Regions
Creation of TransAlta Renewables1
~80% owned by TransAlta Corporation
1Above figures do not include acquisition of 144 MW
Wyoming wind farm announced on October 21, 2013,
which is expected to close by the end of December 2013.
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Disciplined approach to driving long-term value for shareholders
Return cash to our shareholders &
maintain strong balance sheet
Competitive quarterly dividend
Investment grade credit ratings
Underpinned by strong cash flows
Optimize base business
Re-contract to stabilize cash
flows and extend asset life
Optimize planned outages
Proactively manage operating &
fuel costs
Maintain strong availability across
our fleet
Prudently and rigorously manage
sustaining capital expenditures
Invest in profitable growth
High returning projects and
acquisitions
Target markets with strong
fundamentals
Focus on renewable energy and
gas
Ability to use tax attributes in the
U.S.
Multiple funding sources
Capital Allocation Discipline
Integrated
Approach
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Stabilizing cash flows and extending the life of assets through re-contracting
Contract extension for 245 MW in Australia (Q4)
20-year contract for 74 MW at Ottawa with Ontario Power Authority (Q3)
24-year contract with Salt River Project in Arizona for 50 MW at Cal Energy LLC (Q3)
24-year contract with City of Riverside in California for 86 MW at Cal Energy LLC (Q2)
11-year contract with Puget Sound Energy for up to 380 MW at Centralia (Q2)
Creating value through growth
Acquisition of 144 MW Wyoming Wind Farm with 15-year PPA (Q4)
Creation of TransAlta Renewables Inc. to fund growth (Q3)
Commercial operation of 68 MW New Richmond Wind Farm with 20-year PPA (Q1)
Full year contribution from 125 MW Solomon gas plant with 21-year PPA in Australia
Steady performance from Energy Trading
Gross margins in line with historical averages
2013 Business Highlights
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2013 Performance Highlights
2010 2011 2012 YTD 2012 YTD 2013
(in $ millions, except as
otherwise noted)
Comparable EBITDA $963 $1,045 $1,014 $701 $780
FFO $805 $809 $776 $572 $550
Sustaining Capital $346 $319 $439 $327 $245
Adjusted Availability1 88.9% 88.2% 90.0% 90.3% 86.4%
1Adjusted for economic dispatching at Centralia.
Consistent EBITDA driven by new growth and steady operations across most of the
business despite higher priced contracts rolling off at Centralia
FFO in line with previous years
Decreases in sustaining capital spend due to the completion of 3 year re-investment
program in the coal fleet
2013 availability, adjusted for Keephills 1 force majeure, is in line with annual target of
89-90%
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Total Portfolio Contractedness1
Hedge targets increased to support near-term revenue certainty
CONTRACTED PRICES
2013
AB ~ $60/ MWh
Pac NW ~ $40/ MWh
2014
AB ~ $55/ MWh
Pac NW ~ $45/ MWh
MW
90% 83% 78% 77%
Highly Contracted with Upside Potential
¹Capacity adjusted volumes. Includes 100% of TransAlta Renewables’ assets, and the 144 MW Wyoming wind farm acquisition announced on October 21, 2013, which is expected to
close by the end of December 2013.
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Alberta Interconnected Electric System (AIES)
Reserve Margin, 2000 - 20181
1AESO Long Term Adequacy Metrics August 2013
Alberta continues to
see considerable
demand growth due to
industrial and mining
activities, and their
indirect impacts
Also, significant
retirements in capacity
in next 10 years:
800 MW of coal
retiring in 2019
1,200 to 3,200 MW
of new capacity
(above that
currently being built)
required by 2020
Alberta – Strong Fundamentals
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Since deregulation, AB Pool prices have averaged $65 / MWh
Source: AESO
Historical Power Prices in Alberta
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Source: Canaccord Genuity
Data: NGX, Alberta Electric System Operator
AB forward market is a poor predictor of future spot market settles
Forward prices tend to reflect spot fundamentals not future fundamentals
$/MWh
Average annual Alberta power prices compared to historical forward Alberta power prices
Alberta Forward Market
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Expiry of the Alberta Coal and Hydro PPAs expected to provide significant
EBITDA upside and dividend coverage
¹Illustrative representation of estimated average EBITDA over period. Actual EBITDA could vary from those shown due to a number of factors
Current Coal PPAs generate average revenue of ~$30/MWh
Significant Upside Potential Post Alberta PPAs
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2008 2009 2010
2011
2011 2013 2012 2013
694 MW
Canadian Hydro
80 MW
Kent Hills 123 MW
Ardenville / Kent Hills 2
19 MW
Bone Creek
450 MW
Keephills 3
125 MW
Solomon
68 MW
New Richmond
2011
132 MW
Summerview 2 / Blue Trail
2010
144 MW
Wyoming Wind
Disciplined growth with a focus on contracted assets
TransAlta’s 5-Year Growth Track Record
~ 1,800 MW added in our core markets over 5 years1
¹Indicative illustration based on annualized EBITDA contributions. 2013 includes recent acquisition of 144 MW Wyoming Wind assuming full year pro-forma.
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Recent additions:
125 MW long-term contracted Solomon Acquisition
Actively pursuing greenfield and acquisitions:
Cogeneration in Alberta and B.C.
Combined & simple cycle in Alberta and Australia
Recent additions:
144 MW long-term contracted Wyoming Wind farm
68 MW long-term contracted New Richmond Wind farm
Actively pursuing:
Acquisitions in North America and Australia
Actively pursuing:
Transmission opportunities in Alberta and Australia
Investments in solar technologies
Gas
Renewables
Other
Well Positioned to Continue to Grow
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Diversified and highly contracted portfolio
Disciplined approach to driving long-term shareholder value
Positioned for growth in markets with strong fundamentals
Significant upside post-PPA
Focused on Creating Value