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48 th Annual EEI Financial Conference November 2013 Brett Gellner, Chief Financial Officer

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Page 1: Financial Conference - TransAlta 2013 48th Annual EEI Financial...Generation Company Proven Track Record Sound Financial and Business Profile Disciplined Growth •~9,200 MW spanning

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48th Annual EEI

Financial Conference November 2013

Brett Gellner, Chief Financial Officer

Page 2: Financial Conference - TransAlta 2013 48th Annual EEI Financial...Generation Company Proven Track Record Sound Financial and Business Profile Disciplined Growth •~9,200 MW spanning

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This presentation may contain forward-looking statements pertaining to the following: the timing and the completion and commissioning of projects under

development including major projects and their attendant costs; our estimated spend on matters relating to the recent flood in Alberta; spend on growth and

sustaining capital and productivity projects; expectations in terms of the cost of operations, capital spend, and maintenance, and the variability of those

costs; the impact of certain hedges on future reported earnings and cash flows; expectations related to future earnings and cash flow from operating and

contracting activities; estimates of fuel supply and demand conditions and the costs of procuring fuel; expectations for demand for electricity in both the

short term and long term, and the resulting impact on electricity prices; expected impacts of anticipated turnarounds, load growth, increased capacity, and

natural gas costs on power prices; expectations in respect of generation availability, capacity, and production; expected governmental regulatory regimes

and legislation and their expected impact on us, as well as the cost of complying with resulting regulations and laws; our trading strategy and the risk

involved in these strategies; estimates of future tax rates, future tax expense, and the adequacy of tax provisions; accounting estimates; anticipated growth

rates in our markets; expectations for the outcome of existing or potential legal and contractual claims; expected financing of our capital expenditures;

expectations for the ability to access capital markets at reasonable terms; the estimated impact of changes in interest rates and the value of the Canadian

dollar relative to the U.S. dollar and the Australian dollar; the monitoring of our exposure to liquidity risk; expectations in respect to the global economic

environment; our credit practices and the estimated contribution of Energy Trading activities to gross margin.

Factors that may adversely impact our forward-looking statements include risks relating to: fluctuations in market prices and the availability of fuel supplies

required to generate electricity; our ability to contract our generation for prices that will provide expected returns; the regulatory and political environments

in the jurisdictions in which we operate; environmental requirements and changes in, or liabilities under, these requirements; changes in general economic

conditions including interest rates; operational risks involving our facilities, including unplanned outages at such facilities; disruptions in the transmission

and distribution of electricity; the effects of weather; disruptions in the source of fuels, water, or wind required to operate our facilities; natural disasters; the

threat of domestic terrorism and cyber-attacks; equipment failure; energy trading risks; industry risk and competition; fluctuations in the value of foreign

currencies and foreign political risks; the need for additional financing; structural subordination of securities; counterparty credit risk; insurance coverage;

our provision for income taxes; legal and contractual proceedings involving the Corporation; reliance on key personnel; labor relations matters and the

successful completion of development projects and acquisitions. The foregoing risk factors, among others, are described in further detail in the Risk

Management section of our 2012 Annual MD&A and under the heading “Risk Factors” in our 2013 Annual Information Form.

Except to the extent required by law, we assume no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward looking statements, whether as a result of new

information, future events or otherwise. All forward looking statements in this presentation are expressly qualified in their entirety by these cautionary

statements. For information on our risks please refer to our 2013 Annual Information Form which has been filed on SEDAR and can be accessed at

www.sedar.com.

Unless otherwise specified, all dollar amounts are expressed in Canadian dollars.

This presentation may contain references to comparable earnings, comparable earnings per share, comparable EBITDA, funds from operations, and funds

from operations per share which are not defined under IFRS. Refer to the Non-IFRS financial measures section of TransAlta’s 2012 annual MD&A for an

explanation and, where applicable, reconciliations to net earnings attributable to common shareholders and cash flow from operating activities. The

presentation may also contain references to gross margin and operating income, which are Additional IFRS measures. Please refer to the Additional IFRS

measures section of the MD&A.

Forward Looking Statements

Page 3: Financial Conference - TransAlta 2013 48th Annual EEI Financial...Generation Company Proven Track Record Sound Financial and Business Profile Disciplined Growth •~9,200 MW spanning

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Leading Diversified Power

Generation Company

Proven Track Record

Sound Financial and

Business Profile

Disciplined Growth

• ~9,200 MW spanning multiple fuels and

markets

• Over 75 facilities

• ~2,400 MW of renewable energy

• 100 years of operating history

• Disciplined approach to capital allocation

• Highly contracted asset base

• Investment grade credit ratings

• Robust access to capital

• Significant cash flow upside post-PPA

• ~1,800 MWs added over past 5 years

• Located in markets with strong

fundamentals

• TransAlta Renewables and strategic

partnerships to fund growth

TransAlta – Key Messages

Page 4: Financial Conference - TransAlta 2013 48th Annual EEI Financial...Generation Company Proven Track Record Sound Financial and Business Profile Disciplined Growth •~9,200 MW spanning

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Our Business

Canada’s largest publicly traded wholesale power

generator & marketer with over 100 years of operating

experience

Diversified asset base with over 75 facilities

strategically positioned in Canada, Western U.S. and

Western Australia

Total fleet capacity of ~9,200 MWs

Our business lines:

• Coal

• Gas

• Renewable energy (Hydro, Wind, Geothermal)

• Energy trading, which optimizes our other

business lines

Sponsor and majority owner of TransAlta Renewables

Listed on Toronto and New York stock exchanges

Coal:

4,926 MW1

Gas:

1,916 MW1

Hydro:

919 MW1

Wind:

1,273MW1

Geothermal:

164 MW1

1Net Capacity Ownership Interest. Includes 100% of TransAlta Renewables’ assets.

Page 5: Financial Conference - TransAlta 2013 48th Annual EEI Financial...Generation Company Proven Track Record Sound Financial and Business Profile Disciplined Growth •~9,200 MW spanning

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20001

20131

Strategic Evolution of TransAlta

Actively shifting our business mix by

growing renewables

1Net Capacity Ownership Interest. Includes 100% of TransAlta Renewables’ assets.

Page 6: Financial Conference - TransAlta 2013 48th Annual EEI Financial...Generation Company Proven Track Record Sound Financial and Business Profile Disciplined Growth •~9,200 MW spanning

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British Columbia 4 hydro

77 MW

Alberta 4 hydro

21 MW

10 wind

417 MW

Ontario 4 hydro

7 MW

3 wind

398 MW

Quebec 1 wind

68 MW

New Brunswick 2 wind

125 MW

Bone Creek 19MW

Upper Mamquam 25MW

Pingston 23MW

Akolkolex 10MW

Summerview One 70MW

Sinnott 7MW

Castle River 44MW

Belly River 3MW

Waterton 3MW

Cowley North 20MW

Summerview Two 66MW

Macleod Flats 3MW Blue Trail 66MW

Soderglen 35MW Taylor Hydro 13MW McBride Lake 38MW

Ardenville 69MW

St. Mary 2MW Misema 3MW

Moose Rapids 1MW

Appleton 1MW

Galetta 2MW

Wolfe Island 198MW

Melancthon One 68MW

Melancthon Two 132MW

New Richmond 68MW

Kent Hills One 80MW

Kent Hills Two 45MW

High Quality Diversified Portfolio 5 Operating Regions

Creation of TransAlta Renewables1

~80% owned by TransAlta Corporation

1Above figures do not include acquisition of 144 MW

Wyoming wind farm announced on October 21, 2013,

which is expected to close by the end of December 2013.

Page 7: Financial Conference - TransAlta 2013 48th Annual EEI Financial...Generation Company Proven Track Record Sound Financial and Business Profile Disciplined Growth •~9,200 MW spanning

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Disciplined approach to driving long-term value for shareholders

Return cash to our shareholders &

maintain strong balance sheet

Competitive quarterly dividend

Investment grade credit ratings

Underpinned by strong cash flows

Optimize base business

Re-contract to stabilize cash

flows and extend asset life

Optimize planned outages

Proactively manage operating &

fuel costs

Maintain strong availability across

our fleet

Prudently and rigorously manage

sustaining capital expenditures

Invest in profitable growth

High returning projects and

acquisitions

Target markets with strong

fundamentals

Focus on renewable energy and

gas

Ability to use tax attributes in the

U.S.

Multiple funding sources

Capital Allocation Discipline

Integrated

Approach

Page 8: Financial Conference - TransAlta 2013 48th Annual EEI Financial...Generation Company Proven Track Record Sound Financial and Business Profile Disciplined Growth •~9,200 MW spanning

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Stabilizing cash flows and extending the life of assets through re-contracting

Contract extension for 245 MW in Australia (Q4)

20-year contract for 74 MW at Ottawa with Ontario Power Authority (Q3)

24-year contract with Salt River Project in Arizona for 50 MW at Cal Energy LLC (Q3)

24-year contract with City of Riverside in California for 86 MW at Cal Energy LLC (Q2)

11-year contract with Puget Sound Energy for up to 380 MW at Centralia (Q2)

Creating value through growth

Acquisition of 144 MW Wyoming Wind Farm with 15-year PPA (Q4)

Creation of TransAlta Renewables Inc. to fund growth (Q3)

Commercial operation of 68 MW New Richmond Wind Farm with 20-year PPA (Q1)

Full year contribution from 125 MW Solomon gas plant with 21-year PPA in Australia

Steady performance from Energy Trading

Gross margins in line with historical averages

2013 Business Highlights

Page 9: Financial Conference - TransAlta 2013 48th Annual EEI Financial...Generation Company Proven Track Record Sound Financial and Business Profile Disciplined Growth •~9,200 MW spanning

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2013 Performance Highlights

2010 2011 2012 YTD 2012 YTD 2013

(in $ millions, except as

otherwise noted)

Comparable EBITDA $963 $1,045 $1,014 $701 $780

FFO $805 $809 $776 $572 $550

Sustaining Capital $346 $319 $439 $327 $245

Adjusted Availability1 88.9% 88.2% 90.0% 90.3% 86.4%

1Adjusted for economic dispatching at Centralia.

Consistent EBITDA driven by new growth and steady operations across most of the

business despite higher priced contracts rolling off at Centralia

FFO in line with previous years

Decreases in sustaining capital spend due to the completion of 3 year re-investment

program in the coal fleet

2013 availability, adjusted for Keephills 1 force majeure, is in line with annual target of

89-90%

Page 10: Financial Conference - TransAlta 2013 48th Annual EEI Financial...Generation Company Proven Track Record Sound Financial and Business Profile Disciplined Growth •~9,200 MW spanning

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Total Portfolio Contractedness1

Hedge targets increased to support near-term revenue certainty

CONTRACTED PRICES

2013

AB ~ $60/ MWh

Pac NW ~ $40/ MWh

2014

AB ~ $55/ MWh

Pac NW ~ $45/ MWh

MW

90% 83% 78% 77%

Highly Contracted with Upside Potential

¹Capacity adjusted volumes. Includes 100% of TransAlta Renewables’ assets, and the 144 MW Wyoming wind farm acquisition announced on October 21, 2013, which is expected to

close by the end of December 2013.

Page 11: Financial Conference - TransAlta 2013 48th Annual EEI Financial...Generation Company Proven Track Record Sound Financial and Business Profile Disciplined Growth •~9,200 MW spanning

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Alberta Interconnected Electric System (AIES)

Reserve Margin, 2000 - 20181

1AESO Long Term Adequacy Metrics August 2013

Alberta continues to

see considerable

demand growth due to

industrial and mining

activities, and their

indirect impacts

Also, significant

retirements in capacity

in next 10 years:

800 MW of coal

retiring in 2019

1,200 to 3,200 MW

of new capacity

(above that

currently being built)

required by 2020

Alberta – Strong Fundamentals

Page 12: Financial Conference - TransAlta 2013 48th Annual EEI Financial...Generation Company Proven Track Record Sound Financial and Business Profile Disciplined Growth •~9,200 MW spanning

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Since deregulation, AB Pool prices have averaged $65 / MWh

Source: AESO

Historical Power Prices in Alberta

Page 13: Financial Conference - TransAlta 2013 48th Annual EEI Financial...Generation Company Proven Track Record Sound Financial and Business Profile Disciplined Growth •~9,200 MW spanning

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Source: Canaccord Genuity

Data: NGX, Alberta Electric System Operator

AB forward market is a poor predictor of future spot market settles

Forward prices tend to reflect spot fundamentals not future fundamentals

$/MWh

Average annual Alberta power prices compared to historical forward Alberta power prices

Alberta Forward Market

Page 14: Financial Conference - TransAlta 2013 48th Annual EEI Financial...Generation Company Proven Track Record Sound Financial and Business Profile Disciplined Growth •~9,200 MW spanning

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Expiry of the Alberta Coal and Hydro PPAs expected to provide significant

EBITDA upside and dividend coverage

¹Illustrative representation of estimated average EBITDA over period. Actual EBITDA could vary from those shown due to a number of factors

Current Coal PPAs generate average revenue of ~$30/MWh

Significant Upside Potential Post Alberta PPAs

Page 15: Financial Conference - TransAlta 2013 48th Annual EEI Financial...Generation Company Proven Track Record Sound Financial and Business Profile Disciplined Growth •~9,200 MW spanning

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2008 2009 2010

2011

2011 2013 2012 2013

694 MW

Canadian Hydro

80 MW

Kent Hills 123 MW

Ardenville / Kent Hills 2

19 MW

Bone Creek

450 MW

Keephills 3

125 MW

Solomon

68 MW

New Richmond

2011

132 MW

Summerview 2 / Blue Trail

2010

144 MW

Wyoming Wind

Disciplined growth with a focus on contracted assets

TransAlta’s 5-Year Growth Track Record

~ 1,800 MW added in our core markets over 5 years1

¹Indicative illustration based on annualized EBITDA contributions. 2013 includes recent acquisition of 144 MW Wyoming Wind assuming full year pro-forma.

Page 16: Financial Conference - TransAlta 2013 48th Annual EEI Financial...Generation Company Proven Track Record Sound Financial and Business Profile Disciplined Growth •~9,200 MW spanning

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Recent additions:

125 MW long-term contracted Solomon Acquisition

Actively pursuing greenfield and acquisitions:

Cogeneration in Alberta and B.C.

Combined & simple cycle in Alberta and Australia

Recent additions:

144 MW long-term contracted Wyoming Wind farm

68 MW long-term contracted New Richmond Wind farm

Actively pursuing:

Acquisitions in North America and Australia

Actively pursuing:

Transmission opportunities in Alberta and Australia

Investments in solar technologies

Gas

Renewables

Other

Well Positioned to Continue to Grow

Page 17: Financial Conference - TransAlta 2013 48th Annual EEI Financial...Generation Company Proven Track Record Sound Financial and Business Profile Disciplined Growth •~9,200 MW spanning

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Diversified and highly contracted portfolio

Disciplined approach to driving long-term shareholder value

Positioned for growth in markets with strong fundamentals

Significant upside post-PPA

Focused on Creating Value