FINANCIAL ANALYSISAnalyst:CA Ajay Biwal (ACA,CMA,B.com)

PROFITABILITY STATEMENTAmount (Rs. million)

Period Ending 2014-15 2013-14 2012-13 2011-12Type Audited Audited Audited AuditedNet Sales 362947 342881 447657 543066Other Income 18814 38330 20882 5741Expenditure -379360 -357391 -434736 -507143

Profit Before Interest and Depreciation and Tax 2402 23820 33803 41664Depreciation -26032 -20703 -18176 -16067Profit Before Interest and Tax -23630 3117 15627 25597Interest -16117 -13375 -13878 -12186Profit before Tax -39747 -10258 1749 13410Tax -7642 13603 1269 -988Net Profit after Tax -47390 3345 3018 12422Equity Capital 6438 6438 6381 6348Reserves 141959 185100 184735 189675Basic And Diluted EPS -14.72 1.03 0.93 3.9Percent of Shares-Public 44.39 44.42 46.9 49Operating Profit Margin 0.66% 6.95% 7.55% 7.67%Net Profit Margin -13.06 0.98 0.67 2.29

NET SALES

2014-15 2013-14 2012-13 2011-120

100000200000300000400000500000600000

Net Sales

Net Sales

Period Ending 2014-15 2013-14 2012-13 2011-12

Net Sales 362947 342881 447657 543066

PROFIT ANALYSIS

2014-15 2013-14 2012-13 2011-12

-60000

-40000

-20000

0

20000

40000

60000

Profit Before Interest and Depreciation and TaxProfit Before Interest and TaxProfit before TaxNet Profit after Tax

Period Ending 2014-15 2013-14 2012-13 2011-12

Profit Before Interest and Depreciation and Tax 2402 23820 33803 41664Profit Before Interest and Tax -23630 3117 15627 25597Profit before Tax -39747 -10258 1749 13410Net Profit after Tax -47390 3345 3018 12422

OPERATING PROFIT MARGIN

Period Ending 2014-15 2013-14 2012-13 2011-12

Net Sales 362947 342881 447657 543066Profit Before Interest and Tax -23630 3117 15627 25597

Operating Profit Margin -6.51% 0.91% 3.49% 4.71%

2014-15 2013-14 2012-13 2011-12

-8.00%-6.00%-4.00%-2.00%0.00%2.00%4.00%6.00%

Operating Profit Margin

Operating Profit Margin

BASIC AND DILUTED EPS

Period Ending 2014-15 2013-14 2012-13 2011-12

Basic And Diluted EPS -14.72 1.03 0.93 3.9

2014-15 2013-14 2012-13 2011-12

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10Basic And Diluted EPS

Basic And Diluted EPS

TOTAL ASSETS TURNOVER RATIO Period Ending 2014-15 2013-14 2012-13 2011-12Net Sales 362947 342881 447657 543066Total Assets 499430 497340 521850 542610Total Assets Turnover Ratio

1.38

1.45

1.17

1.00

2014-15 2013-14 2012-13 2011-12 -

0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60

Total Assets Turnover ratio

Total Assets Turnover ratio

DISTRIBUTION OF REVENUEPeriod Ending 2014-15 Percentage 2013-14 Percentage

Material 27,041 65.31% 25,914 62.31%Operations & Other Exp 7,519 18.16% 6,831 16.43%Tax 4,278 10.33% 2,302 5.54%Employee 3,091 7.47% 2,877 6.92%Interest 1,612 3.89% 1,353 3.25%Depreciation 2,603 6.29% 2,070 4.98%Shareholders - 0.00% 649 1.56%Reserve (4,739) -11.45% (407) -0.98%Net Profit 41,405 100% 41,588 100%

2013-14 MaterialOperations & Other ExpTaxEmployeeInterestDepreciationShareholdersReserve

2014-15

RETURN ON CAPITAL EMPLOYEDPeriod Ending 2014-15 2013-14 2012-13

Equity Share Capital 6437.8 6437.8 6380.7Reserves & Surplus 142188.1 185328.7 184,967.70Deferred Tax Liability 0 431.1 19,639.10Long term Borrowing 123189.6 97464.5 80,517.80Other Long Term Liability 2868 11554.8 12,384.40Long Term Provision 21041.9 8152 6911.9Capital Employed 295725.4 309368.9 310801.6Profit Before Interest and Tax -23630 3117 15627ROCE (Before Tax) -7.99% 1.01% 5.03%

2014-15 2013-14 2012-13

-10.00%-8.00%-6.00%-4.00%-2.00%0.00%2.00%4.00%6.00%

ROCE (Before Tax)

ROCE (Before Tax)

RETURN ON NET WORTHPeriod Ending 2014-15 2013-14 2012-13

Stakeholder's funds148625.9 191766.5 191348.4

Profit before Tax-39747 -10258 1749

RONW (Before Tax)-26.74% -5.35% 0.91%

2014-15 2013-14 2012-13

-30.00%-25.00%-20.00%-15.00%-10.00%-5.00%0.00%5.00%

RONW (Before Tax)

RONW (Before Tax)

DEBT EQUITY RATIOPeriod Ending 2014-15 2013-14 2012-13

Long term Borrowing 123189.6 97464.5 80,517.80Short Term Borrowing 77620.1 47,690.80 62,169.10Total Debt 200809.7 145155.3 142686.9Total Equity 148625.9 191766.5 191348.4Debt - Equity Ratio

1.35

0.76

0.75

2014-15 2013-14 2012-13 -

0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60

Debt - Equity Ratio

Debt - Equity Ratio

CURRENT RATIO Period Ending 2014-15 2013-14 2012-13

Current Assets 85,729.70

67,390.60

101,349.60

Current Liabilities 203,706.30

187,975.30

211,046.10

Current Ratio 0.42

0.36

0.48

2014-15 2013-14 2012-13 -

0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60

Current Ratio

Current Ratio

QUARTERLY ANALYSIS OF CURRENT FISCAL YEAR 2015-16

Period Ending Qtr III Qtr II Qtr I

Net Sales

100,006.20

105,010.90

92,969.90

Qtr III Qtr II Qtr I 86,000.00 88,000.00 90,000.00 92,000.00

94,000.00 96,000.00

98,000.00 100,000.00 102,000.00 104,000.00 106,000.00

Net Sales

Net Sales

Amount (Rs. million)

QUARTERLY NET PROFIT

Period Ending Qtr III Qtr II Qtr INet Profit -2,008.60 -2,874.60 2,575.70

Qtr III Qtr II Qtr I

-4,000.00-3,000.00-2,000.00-1,000.00

0.001,000.002,000.003,000.00

Net Profit

Net Profit

BASIC AND DILUTED EPS

Period Ending Qtr III Qtr II Qtr I

Basic And Diluted EPS -0.59 -0.85 0.76

Qtr III Qtr II Qtr I

-1-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.2

00.20.40.60.8

1Basic And Diluted EPS

Basic And Diluted EPS

SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGE Date Close Price 30 DAYS AVG 10 DAYS AVG

3-Feb-16 320.5 357.85 334.01 4-Feb-16 325.95 356.12 332.40 5-Feb-16 337.25 354.75 333.19 8-Feb-16 323.95 352.80 331.65 9-Feb-16 310.6 350.04 329.42

10-Feb-16 291.85 346.74 324.89 11-Feb-16 275.65 342.81 319.05 12-Feb-16 298.65 339.73 315.25 15-Feb-16 316.45 336.89 313.06 16-Feb-16 301 334.35 310.19 17-Feb-16 310.1 332.20 309.15 18-Feb-16 313.7 330.46 307.92 19-Feb-16 317.5 329.61 305.95 22-Feb-16 318.8 328.45 305.43 23-Feb-16 318.45 327.05 306.22 24-Feb-16 306.9 325.44 307.72 25-Feb-16 298 323.23 309.96 26-Feb-16 302.2 321.47 310.31 29-Feb-16 300.25 320.09 308.69 1-Mar-16 315.3 319.22 310.12 2-Mar-16 317 317.99 310.81 3-Mar-16 336.35 317.80 313.08 4-Mar-16 343.55 318.27 315.68 8-Mar-16 345.7 318.48 318.37 9-Mar-16 347.75 318.98 321.30

SMA CHART ANALYSIS

3-Feb

-16

5-Feb

-16

7-Feb

-16

9-Feb

-16

11-Fe

b-16

13-Fe

b-16

15-Fe

b-16

17-Fe

b-16

19-Fe

b-16

21-Fe

b-16

23-Fe

b-16

25-Fe

b-16

27-Fe

b-16

29-Fe

b-16

2-Mar-

16

4-Mar-

16

6-Mar-

16

8-Mar-

16 -

50.00

100.00

150.00

200.00

250.00

300.00

350.00

400.00

30 DAYS AVG 10 DAYS AVG CLOSING PRICE

EXPONENTIAL MOVING AVERAGE (EMA)

FACTOR 0.039215686 0.153846154Date Close Price 50 DAYS EMA 12 DAYS EMA

27-Jan-16 337.15 380.73 346.07

28-Jan-16 334 378.90 344.21

29-Jan-16 336.7 377.25 343.06

1-Feb-16 338.35 375.72 342.33

2-Feb-16 329.7 373.92 340.39

3-Feb-16 320.5 371.82 337.33

4-Feb-16 325.95 370.02 335.58

5-Feb-16 337.25 368.74 335.84

8-Feb-16 323.95 366.98 334.01

9-Feb-16 310.6 364.77 330.41

10-Feb-16 291.85 361.91 324.47

11-Feb-16 275.65 358.53 316.96

12-Feb-16 298.65 356.18 314.15

15-Feb-16 316.45 354.62 314.50

EMA CHART ANALYSIS

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

PRICE 50 DAYS EMA 12 DAYS EMA

BOLLINGER BANDS

DATE closing price

SMA Deviation

squard

SD

2*SD

UPPER BAND

LOWER BOND

Avg of 20 Days CP-SMA

sq root of Avg

SquardSMA+(2*S

D)SMA-

(2*SD)

29-Jan-16 336.7 351.97 -15.27 233.10 17.70 35.40 387.36 316.57

1-Feb-16 338.35 348.80 -10.45 109.25 13.97 27.95 376.75 320.86

2-Feb-16 329.7 346.43 -16.73 279.89 13.32 26.65 373.08 319.78

3-Feb-16 320.5 343.72 -23.22 539.28 13.37 26.74 370.46 316.98

4-Feb-16 325.95 341.74 -15.79 249.17 13.48 26.97 368.70 314.77

5-Feb-16 337.25 341.44 -4.19 17.54 13.37 26.75 368.18 314.69

8-Feb-16 323.95 339.96 -16.01 256.40 13.84 27.68 367.64 312.28

9-Feb-16 310.6 337.46 -26.86 721.46 14.96 29.92 367.38 307.54

10-Feb-16 291.85 334.30 -42.45 1,802.00 17.71 35.41 369.71 298.89

11-Feb-16 275.65 329.86 -54.21 2,938.72 21.27 42.55 372.41 287.31

12-Feb-16 298.65 327.05 -28.40 806.56 22.19 44.39 371.44 282.66

15-Feb-16 316.45 325.80 -9.34 87.33 22.17 44.34 370.13 281.46

BOLLINGER BANDS CHART ANALYSIS

29-Ja

n-16

31-Ja

n-16

2-Feb

-16

4-Feb

-16

6-Feb

-16

8-Feb

-16

10-Fe

b-16

12-Fe

b-16

14-Fe

b-16

16-Fe

b-16

18-Fe

b-16

20-Fe

b-16

22-Fe

b-16

24-Fe

b-16

26-Fe

b-16

28-Fe

b-16

1-Mar-

16

3-Mar-

16

5-Mar-

16

7-Mar-

16

9-Mar-

160

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

PRICE SMA MIDDLE BANDUPPER BAND LOWER BAND

CORRELATION WITH MARKET

SENSEX RETURN MONTHLY BASISMonth Open Close Movement return

Mar-15 29533.4 27957.5 -1575.9 -5.34

Apr-15 27954.9 27011.3 -943.5 -3.38

May-15 27204.6 27828.4 623.8 2.29

Jun-15 27770.8 27780.8 10.0 0.04

Jul-15 27823.7 28114.6 290.9 1.05

Aug-15 28089.1 26283.1 -1806.0 -6.43

Sep-15 26127.0 26154.8 27.8 0.11

Oct-15 26344.2 26656.8 312.6 1.19

Nov-15 26641.7 26145.7 -496.0 -1.86

Dec-15 26201.3 26117.5 -83.7 -0.32

Jan-16 26101.5 24870.7 -1230.8 -4.72

Feb-16 24982.2 23002.0 -1980.2 -7.93

CORRELATION WITH MARKETTATA MOTORS RETURN MONTHLY BASIS

Month Open Price Close Price movement returnMar-15 598.00 549.95 -48.05 -8.035Apr-15 550.00 508.45 -41.55 -7.555

May-15 513.40 481.60 -31.80 -6.194Jun-15 482.80 434.55 -48.25 -9.994Jul-15 436.95 384.35 -52.60 -12.038

Aug-15 385.00 340.15 -44.85 -11.649Sep-15 335.15 298.45 -36.70 -10.950Oct-15 300.10 384.45 84.35 28.107Nov-15 387.00 423.35 36.35 9.393Dec-15 425.50 382.40 -43.10 -10.129Jan-16 393.80 336.70 -57.10 -14.500Feb-16 340.00 300.25 -39.75 -11.691

CORRELATION WITH MARKETMonth R TATA DX DX2 R SENSEX DM DM2 DXDM

Mar-15 -8.04 -2.60 6.75 -5.34 -3.23 10.42 8.39Apr-15 -7.55 -2.12 4.49 -3.38 -1.27 1.61 2.68

May-15 -6.19 -0.76 0.57 2.29 4.40 19.37 -3.33Jun-15 -9.99 -4.56 20.77 0.04 2.14 4.60 -9.77Jul-15 -12.04 -6.60 43.58 1.05 3.15 9.95 -20.82

Aug-15 -11.65 -6.21 38.60 -6.43 -4.32 18.68 26.85Sep-15 -10.95 -5.51 30.40 0.11 2.21 4.90 -12.21Oct-15 28.11 33.54 1125.17 1.19 3.29 10.86 110.52Nov-15 9.39 14.83 219.90 -1.86 0.25 0.06 3.65Dec-15 -10.13 -4.69 22.02 -0.32 1.79 3.20 -8.39Jan-16 -14.50 -9.06 82.15 -4.72 -2.61 6.80 23.63Feb-16 -11.69 -6.25 39.12 -7.93 -5.82 33.85 36.39TOTAL -65.24 1633.54 -25.30 124.29 157.59

ARR TATA -5.44 65.24/12ARR SENSEX -2.11 25.3/12VARIANCE TATA 136.13 1633.54/12VARIANCE SENSEX 10.36 124.29/12SD TATA 11.67 SQRT(136.13)SD SENSEX 3.22 SQRT(10.36)COVARIANCE 13.13 157.59/12CORRELATION 0.35 COV/(SD TATA * SD SENSEX)BETA 1.27 (SD TATA/SD SENSEX) * CORRELATION