final presentation (final)

Download Final Presentation (FINAL)

If you can't read please download the document

Post on 14-Apr-2017

15 views

Category:

Documents

1 download

Embed Size (px)

TRANSCRIPT

PowerPoint Presentation

Presents:How Many Americans Died of the Russian Flu?Robert Legge, Jonathan Walton, Elijah FioreSponsor: Professor Tom ewing, Department of HistoryKG3 Presents:

1

Problem Statement

How many people died of the Russian Flu between December 1889 and January 1890 in the United States?

Russian Flu killed an estimated 1 million worldwide

Spanish Flu killed an estimated 50 million worldwide, infected 500 million

1890 Census is the primary source of data

Acting in concert we ought to knock out the townEvening World (NYC)January 7, 18902

Pointed, non-open ended question, integer response

December to January was the timeframe of the main outbreakFalls within the exact window that the decennial census was being taken.

2

What is the Census?

3

Most time consuming part of the projectOCR, which is Optical Character RecognitionAll data we used was manually entered for each census

This portion of the census lists how many people died of various reasons.Census does include totals as well as some major cities198 reason total

We recorded 12 reasons for death that Professor Ewing felt could have been confused with Russian Flu deaths including Pneumonia and Bronchitis.The Russian Flu is listed in this census as La Grippe (120) 3

Literature Review

Only a handful of articles exist on the Russian Flu.

French study examining age distribution of the epidemic based on census data from 15 countries

Paper by J.F. Brundage investigating case rates and death rates from different strains of influenza in the American Journal of Preventative Medicine

Professor Ewings theory is well cited in his exploratory article on the Vital Statistics data. He illustrates a lack of reported La Grippe cases paired with an abundance of other reported diseases such as pneumonia.4

French study found that infants and the elderly died more frequently from the disease.

Mentioned in a paper that compared death rates of various influenza strains.

Not many people died of the Russian Flu compared to the Spanish Flu.Historical Research has been much more focused on the Spanish Flu epidemic.

Why does our sponsor care? He wants to set the record straight as he has found that in his research La Grippe was potentially under-reported while there was an abundance of other diseases.

4

Design Criteria

VisualizationsUsefulnessEase of UnderstandingRun-timeAesthetic Appeal

Mathematical ModelingHistorical ValidityTimelinessUsabilityModel Adaptability

5

Historical Validity was our measure of how our model differed from what was reported

Usability: It would be more convenient for our sponsor, who does not have a technical background, to run a program rather than edit scripts.5

Design Approach

Statistical AnalysisCompare 1890 Census to 1880 and 1900 CensusesDisease fatality statistics

Mathematical ModelingSEIR model

VisualizationsMathematical Modeling6

Based on the Census Data

1890 Population

1890 La Grippe Deaths

7

Grouping

8

Excess Analysis Method9

Bronchitis Deaths Per 100,000

ExcessNorth East (Group 1)Heartland and Mid-Atlantic Midwest and South West10

Group-Wise Excess La Grippe Deaths

1890 Population

1890 La Grippe Deaths

11

La Grippe Reported vs. Plus ExcessReported La Grippe DeathsEstimated Excess DeathsTotal La Grippe Deaths Plus Excess DeathsGroup 12,1779,36011,537Total US13,0499,36022,409

12

La Grippe Reported vs. Plus Excess

1890 La Grippe Deaths

1890 La Grippe Deaths Plus Excess

13

Missing states: An issue. Changing borders, names, territoriesIn 1900, Dakota became North and South Dakota and so we cannot show the state as a resultOklahoma was Indian Territory prior to 190013

Quantitative ResultsReported DeathEstimated Excess DeathsBronchitis21,4204,702Pneumonia76,5783,127Consumption102,7274,599Totals200,72512,428

1890 La Grippe DeathsTotal Reported13,049Total Estimated with Excess25,477

14

Validation - Scarlet Fever

Scarlet Fever is easily identifiable by a red rashUsing Excess Analysis should not return any excessOne state out of 46 showed excessLikely an outlier, but no way to be sureShows that the method works

15

Scarlet Fever Deaths Per 100,000

North East Heartland and Mid-AtlanticMidwest and SouthWest16

Just illustrates the previous slides point. Looking at the disease death rates by group, Scarlet Fever does not show the excess deaths like the diseases we included. 16

Deliverables

17

Limitations

Data that did exist was not in a usable format

Not enough time to enter available data

Time constraints

Inconsistent reporting across Census data

1890 Census1880 Census18

18

Lessons Learned

Difficulty of solving a historical problem

Be more realistic

Parallelize tasks better

Communication is key19

Conclusion

Our conservative estimate suggests 25,477 deaths, compared to 13,049 reported

11,537 were in Group 1 (North East area)

Unable to verify our results due to the nature of the data

Stepping stone for future analysis as more data is gathered

Thank you to Professor Ewing and Dr. Embree for their mentorship and guidance

Questions20

Majority of excess being in North East supports theory that poor identification and reporting is the causeThe data we had was all we could work withIn the event that we somehow get a hold of death certificates and more data, what weve done can be applied in the same manner to find resultsThank you to Professor Ewing and Dr. EmbreeAt this time Id like to thank you all as well and open up the floor to any questions.

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

-120 -100 -80x

y

1e+062e+063e+064e+065e+066e+06

Pop

1890 Population

25

30

35

40

45

50

-120 -100 -80x

y

250

500

750

Grippe

1890 La Grippe Deaths

0

2000

4000

6000

1 2 3 4Group

Dea

ths

Group1

2

3

4

1890 La Grippe Deaths Per Group

0.0e+00

5.0e+06

1.0e+07

1.5e+07

2.0e+07

1 2 3 4Group

Popu

latio

n

Group1

2

3

4

1890 Population per Group

25

30

35

40

45

50

-120 -100 -80x

y

10

20

30

40

GrippePer

1890 La Grippe Deaths Per 100,000

25

30

35

40

45

50

-120 -100 -80x

y

20

40

60

80

Death_Rate

1890 La Grippe Death Rate Plus Excess Bronchitis and Pneumonia Death Rates

1880 1885 1890 1895 1900

Year

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0N

orm

aliz

ed P

opula

tion

Total PopulationScarlet FeverEnteric FeverMalarial FeverDiphtheriaBronchitis (Croup)ConsumptionPneumoniaLa GrippeMeningitisDisease of Respiratory SystemScrofulaUnknown

Cause of Death Causes of Death

State filter: New York

Reset

Normalized Death Counts by Disease