final first round scenario analysis results david ory ([email protected]) metropolitan transportation...
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Final First Round Scenario Analysis Results
David Ory ([email protected])Metropolitan Transportation CommissionMarch 23, 2011
Presentation for Regional Modeling Working Group
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Which scenarios.
GHG first.
Travel model results.
Other targets.
Next steps.
Questions.
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Year 2005 (version 0.0).
Year 2020, Current Regional Plans (v 0.0).
Year 2020, Initial Vision (v 0.0).
Year 2035, Current Regional Plans (v 0.0).
Year 2035, Initial Vision (v 0.0).
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Which scenarios.
GHG first. From air basin to nine counties.
Travel model results.
Other targets.
Next steps.
Questions.
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2035
-15.0 percentARB
Target
Initial Vision with T-2035
Initial Vision
-11.2 percent
-11.6 percent
Current Regional Plans
-10.6 percent
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ARB Target
-8.8 percentCurrent Regional
Plans
-7.0 percent2020
Initial Vision-10.3 percent
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Which scenarios.
GHG first.
Travel model results.
Other targets.
Next steps.
Questions.
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Population Synthesizer
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Pri
ce
Quantity
Roadway & Transit Supply
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15Image source: sedonakathy.wordpress.com
Automobile Ownership
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17Image source: flickr.com/sbisson
Scheduling
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2005
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2035 CRP
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2035 IVS
21Image source: flickr.com/bigtimes
Activity Locations/ Travel Distance
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24Image sources: sedonakathy.wordpress.com; greencar.com
Travel Mode Choice
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2035 CRP
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2035 IVS
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30Image source: flickr.com/SpokkerJones
Transit Utilization
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32Image source: flickr.com/cookieevans5
Roadway Utilization
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Year 2005 VMT by Household Location: http://geocommons.com/maps/56363
Year 2035 Current Regional Plans VMT by Household Location: http://geocommons.com/maps/56379
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Which scenarios.
GHG first.
Travel model results.
Other targets See Planning Cmte Packet.
Next steps.
Questions.
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Which scenarios.
GHG first.
Travel model results.
Other targets.
Next steps.
Questions.
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Find & Fix Bugs
Find & Fix Bugs
Continue sensitivity tests (HOT & gas prices)
Update runs using model version 0.1
Find & Fix Bugs
Continue RTP analytical work
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Which scenarios.
GHG first.
Travel model results.
Other targets.
Next steps.
Questions.