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RAO UES
Anatoly Chubais, CEO
November 14, 2007
Russian Power Sector:Competitive market
and new investment opportunities
2
4,254
2,834.4
1,150.3981
726.7 635.8 584.4 571.1 419.1 415.9
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
US China Japan Russia India Germany Canada France Brazil SouthKorea
Russia: # 4 electricity producer in the world
TWh
Ten Largest Electricity Markets in 2006
Sources: BP Statistical Review of World Energy (June 2007), CIA World Factbook (2007)
22.4%Share of Total 14.9% 6.0% 5.2% 3.8% 3.3% 3.0%3.1% 2.2% 2.2%
GDP Real growth rate(2006 est.)
2.9% 11.1% 2.2% 6.7% 9.4% 2.8% 2.2%2.8% 3.7% 5.0%
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Basics of the Reform: Separation of Monopolistic and Competitive Sectors
Mon
opol
istic
sec
tors
Dispatching
Transmission and Distribution grids
Com
petit
ive
sect
ors
Supply
Generation
Private propertyand
market
Government propertyand
Government regulation
4
Competitive wholesale market:Supply/Demand Equation Prices
Source: Administrator of Trade System (ATS)
Average prices (Europe+Urals and Siberia), Rb/MWh
Day (Apr 07)
200
300
400
500
600
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24200
300
400
500
600
700
01.10.07 08.10.07 15.10.07 22.10.07 29.10.07
Week and month
Sept06 Oct06 Nov06 Dec06 Jan07 Feb07 Mar07 Apr07 May07 Jun07 Jul07 Aug07 Sept07 Oct07200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Year
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Power Market DevelopmentPace of liberalization: government’s plan and actual progress
All new capacity and consumption commissioned after 2007 go to the free market
0%5%
10%15%
25%30%
50%
60%
80% 100%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Jan 1, 2007 Jul 1, 2007 Jan 1, 2008 Jul 1, 2008 Jan 1, 2009 Jul 1, 2009 Jan 1, 2010 Jul 1, 2010 Jan 1, 2011Sept 1, 2006
~18% (Sept 06)
~19% (Sept 07)
Excluding electricity consumption by households
actual pace of liberalization (facts and estimates)mandatory increase of the liberalized market share
~ 25%~35%
~40%
~60%
~70%
~90% 100%
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Functional unbundling Legal unbundling Ownership unbundling
The issue is not settled yet for the majority of EU countries: Ownership unbundling of VICs and spin-off of distribution grids
EU countries
Deadline for ownership unbundling of RAO UES (Federal Law No. 250, November 4, 2007)
Russia July 1, 2008
??
Power Sector:Functional, Legal and Ownership Unbundling
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Two final chords of the reform
Corporate and legal actions taken according to the plan
UES Extraordinary General Meeting (October 26, 2007)
RAO UES EGM approved the final reorganization
(more than 95.43% of the attending shareholders voted for).
Deadline for reorganization: UES ownership unbundling by July 1, 2008.
UES shareholders will receive shares in all target companies on a pro rata basis
Federal Law No. 250 to adjust power sector laws
in connection with RAO UES reorganization.
Transitional period of the power sector reform
will end by July 1, 2008 (date of completion of the RAO UES
reorganization).
Federal Law No. 250(November 4, 2007)
CoordinatedAgreed
Synchronized
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Private propertyand
market
Government propertyand
Government regulation
Mon
opol
istic
se
ctor
sC
ompe
titiv
e se
ctor
s
• Thermal Wholesale GenCos (OGKs)
• HydroOGK
• Territorial GenCos (TGKs)
• INTER RAO
• Federal Grid Company
• System Operator
• Interregional Distribution Companies (IDC Holding)
• Far East Energy Systems
Competitive and Monopolistic Sectors: Target Structure Companies
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Unlocking the value through unbundling
Source: broker reports, Bloomberg. Market data as of November 8, 2007¹ As per RAO 2006 full year consolidated IFRS financials
(bn Euro net to RAO UES)
OGK
TGK36
14
14
ThermalGenCos
9
Hydro GenCo
5
FederalGrid Co.
1
Inter RAO
8
Distr'n
1
SupplyMiscellaneousassets
2
54
RAO Sum
Of Parts
Currentmarket
cap.
10
0,313
2,108
0,308
1,601
1,0380,646
3,998
1,958
0,68
1,125
0
1
2
3
4
5
Nov 06 Mar 06 May 07 May 07 Jun 07 Sep 07 Sep 07 Sep 07 Oct 07 Oct 07
Euro in billions
OGK-5 OGK-3 TGK-5 TGK-3 OGK-5 OGK-4 TGK-1 OGK-2 TGK-8OGK-3
Total: ~ 13,8 bn Euro (average price: ~397 Euro/kW)
+ Other OGKs/TGKs planned share placements and competitive sales:~ 14 billion Euro by April 2008
Funds raised From share placements and competitive sales to strategic investors
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Schedule: OGKs/TGKs Share Placements and Competitive Sales
Schedule for placing additional shares in OGK-6 to be specified
TGK-13TGK-7
Apr 08Mar 08Feb 08Jan 08Dec 07Nov 07
34%TGK-14
25%TGK-3 (LSE)
76%TGK-1053%TGK-1132%47%52%TGK-650%TGK-268%OGK-1
56%TGK-434%TGK-1255%
Stake offered, %
Apr 08Mar 08Feb 08Jan 08Dec 07Nov 07
20082007
TGK-9
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Prospects until 2030:Target Concept, General Scheme, Investment Programs
2006
2010
2020
2030
General Scheme for locating power capacity until 2020
Target Concept for Development of the Russian Electricity Power Sector until 2030
2006-2010 Investment Program
of UES Holding Company
5-year investment programsof energy companies
from 2008
2006 2010 2020 2030
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Electricity demand growth outlook: Mid-term and long-term view
Mid-term Long-term
Source: Ministry of Industry and Energy (Minpromenergo); UES estimates
kWh, bln
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
981
1,030
1,082
1,133
1,197
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Average annual increase in 2006-10: 5% (basic scenario) 5%
5,6%
3,7%
5,3%
3,9%
5%
0
2
4
6
2006-2010 2010-2015 2015-2020
Basic scenario Optimistic scenario
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2006-2010 RAO UES Capacity Commissioning Program
MW 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2006-2010
Thermal generationOGKs, TGKs, RAO UES
1 186 1 545 2 050 5 788 14 364 24 934
Hydro OGK 67 690 420 1 224 1 612 4 013Total commissioning 1 253 2 235 2 470 7 089 15 919 28 947
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
MW
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
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2006-2010 Sources of financing
~28.5 (31%)
~15 (16%)
~4.8 (5%)
~22.8 (24%)
Private investmentsState budget financing
Credits and loans Companies’ funds
Other
Euro, bn
~22.9 (24%)
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RAO UES Investment Program for 2006-2010: Higher Demand for Suppliers’ Products and Services *
Power SectorDevelopment
Program
2010 vs. 2006 Generation equipment(Procurements of solely primary generation equipment for OGKs and TGKs):~ 21.6 bn Euro
8-fold
Electrical equipment(Procurements solely for FGC):~ 7.6 bn Euro 4-fold
Coal:~ 731 milliontonnes of coal
40%
Gas:~ 848 billioncub.m. of gas
30%
Construction materials(Solely cement expenses of TPPs and HPPs): ~ 0.3 bn Euro
R&D(Solely in thermal power sector):~ 2 bn Euro
Construction and installation(Solely in thermal power sector):~ 9 bn Euro
4.5-fold
4-fold
8-fold
* Expert estimates
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New Investors, New Market
New Opportunities