Fifth Annual International Conference on Environmental and Occupational Medicine

Organized by:

Shanghai Municipal Center for Disease Control & Prevention (SCDC)

Shanghai Institutes of Preventive Medicine

Editorial Board of the Journal of Environmental and Occupational Medicine (JEOM)

Sponsored by:

Shanghai Municipal Center for Disease Control & Prevention (SCDC)

Fogarty International Programs, California Department of Public Health, and Sequoia Foundation

Dujiangyan, Chengdu, Sichuan, China, April 7-10, 2010

Global Climate Change and Agricultural Security:It’s not the warming, it’s the variability

Presented by:

John S. Petterson, Ph.D.

Director

Sequoia Foundation

Overview of PresentationIntersection of GCC and Human Behavior

Demographic Context Population Concentration (rural to urban) Changes in Production/Consumption Patterns

More people dependent on few producers Increasing reliance on and fragility of delivery

system Increased exposure to contaminated industrial

waste Regulatory constraints (environmental and

occupational regulations) Global Climate Change

Changes in rainfall regimes Increase in variability (seasonal/annual)

Unique Local/Regional Influences

Population Concentration

Population Concentration (density) Rural to urban transition Low rural development rate High migration toward the coasts

with accelerating manufacturing and industrial development

Little movement of industry away from the coasts

Employment/Income Disparities

Average rural worker in 2008 earned 30% of the average wage of an urban worker

Educational disparities are continuing to increase

Rural access to doctors and medical facilities inferior to urban areas

Significant disparity in access to capital/loans

Disparities in access to emergency assistance

Disparities in infrastructure, utilities, sanitation, etc.

Employment (Agri & Non-Agri): 1990-2008

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

1990 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008

AG

Non-AG

Employment (Agri & Non-Agri): 1990-2008

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

1990 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008

AG

Non-AG

Changing Production Patterns

Fastest growing economy in world history, unprecedented growth driven by external “demand” and precipitous acceleration of domestic consumption

West is a driving “partner” in these impacts, having moved their manufacturing businesses to China for cheap labor, lax environmental regulations, and higher profits.

Structure of Chinese economy increasingly dependent on worst source of environmental pollutants – coal. Push to aggressively pursue alternative renewable energy sources – nuclear, hydro, wind.

Changing Consumption Patterns

Increased per capita consumption of environmental amenities:

wheat, rice fruits, vegetables cattle, pigs, goats, sheep wood (construction/fuel) vegetative cover

Increased contamination of soil, surface, water table, rivers, irrigation supplies

Consumption Patterns In 2003, China fed 20 percent of the world's

population with only 7 percent of the world's arable land.

China ranks first worldwide in farm output, and, as a result of topographic and climatic factors, only about 10–15 percent of the total land area is suitable for cultivation.

Of this, slightly more than half is unirrigated, and the remainder is divided roughly equally between paddy fields and irrigated areas.

Nevertheless, about 60 percent of the population lives in the rural areas, and until the 1980s a high percentage of them made their living directly from farming.

Since then, many have been encouraged to leave the fields and pursue other activities, such as light manufacturing, commerce, and transportation; and by the mid-1980s farming accounted for less than half of the value of rural output. Today, agriculture contributes only 13% of China's GDP.

Lost crops 农作物的损失 Less food for families 家庭食物的减少 Less money for economy 流通货币的减少 Market decline/collapse 市场交易下降或崩溃 Creation of need to import grain, and the world consequences Polarization between people in rural and urban China Forced migration Linguistic and other social vulnerabilities

语言及其他社会的脆弱性 Disruptions in access to markets 进入市场的机制被破坏 Mobility, access to emergency and preventative care

进入应急状态和预防机制的灵活性下降 Political responses/miscalculations

增加政治回应和错误估算导致决策失误发生率 Ability to respond to disasters of proportions previously unseen

对以前未见过的不可预见的灾害回应的能力 Costs of disaster response/management Costs of subsidies and aid to rural families Highly vulnerable (poor, elderly, children, handicapped)

Social/Economic Vulnerabilities社会或经济的脆弱性

Global Climate Change Alters distribution of rainfall Alters timing (initial rains, pattern

disruptions, early/late final rainfall) Alters agricultural patterns Alters natural habitats Creates land no longer suitable for

productive use (desertification) due to shifting isotherms and isohyets

For farmers everywhere: Variability is a BAD thing

GCC Alteration of Regional Weather Patterns

Southeast China: Percent (%) of 75-year mean

Northeast China: Percent (%) of 75-year mean

Asia Rainfall Anomalies (blue = increase)

Increases frequency of droughts Increases frequency/severity of

storm events (flooding) Alters historic rainfall patterns

Earlier rain Later rain Interrupted Volume/Severity Timing/Frequency Location Retention

GCC Alters Regional Weather Patterns

Effects of Altered Weather Patterns Results in increased variability of harvest levels

Effects of silt deposition on crop lands Effects of excess rainfall at sowing/harvest Effects of prolonged soil saturation of growth and yield If temperatures are warm during flooding (greater than 77

F), plants may not survive 24 hours in saturated soil Cold, wet weather favors disease development. Flooding not required to kill plants, cold, wet weather

conditions also favor development of seed rots and seedling blights.

Effects of extended periods of seasonal drought Seedling development slowed or delayed two to three

weeks will allow soil-borne pathogens a greater opportunity to cause damage

The first major impact of soil completely covered with water is a rapid depletion of oxygen required for plant growth and development.

The other major impact of flooding is change in nutrient status either by leaching or changing their availability to the plant. The response to flooding will vary with duration and temperature

Effects of Altered Weather Patterns Results in increased variability of harvest

levels Depending on “stage” of development, wheat

can withstand water-logged soils for up to 24 hours without excessive damage, barley less that this.

Corn is very sensitive to flooding in the early vegetative stage; can survive only 2-4 days of flooded conditions

Soybeans can survive for only 2-4 days under water in anaerobic condition

Increased cost of production/hectare (return on investment decreased); price to consumer

Effects of Altered Weather Patterns

China's top meteorological official warned that global warming could cut the nation's grain harvest by 5 to 10% by 2030. http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1656570,00.html#ixzz0hFWsCwZS

Effects of Local/Regional Atmospheric Contamination

Very high vulnerability 8% of China located in the mid- and down stream parts of the

seven major rivers of the country – all subject to floods. 50% of China’s population live in these areas 66% of total agricultural and industrial product value Large floods occur once every two years

Death by drowning Lack of food/water 缺少食物或饮用水 Loss of crops/infrastructure Loss of land/livelihood Collapse of sanitation, storm-water drainage, and sewage

disposal systems Transmission of waterborne illnesses through unsafe

drinking water (increased exposure to waterborne disease vectors (viruses, bacteria, worms, infectious disease, malaria, etc.) ( 增加对经水传染疾病媒介的暴露（病毒，细菌，蠕虫，传染性疾 病，疟疾等 )

Added pressure on already overstretched public health services Higher rates of infection/transmission 增高的传染或传播率

Flooding 洪涝灾害

China: Flood Management, Hai-lun, Z. (2005)

Northern plains of China 45 percent of China's population (heart of Han

Chinese civilization) 58 percent of its cultivated land 19 percent of the nation's fresh water stocks Principal source of water: the Yellow River “Dried up during 21 out of the 27 years between

1972 and 1999.”

Drought

“Drought leaves 18 million thirsty in China,” Xinhua News, August 20, 2006

Decreased fresh water supplies 减少新鲜水源供给 Less water for irrigation 减少灌溉水源 Less water for human consumption

减少人类消耗用水 Less productive harvest 减少农作物产出 Forced migration Malnutrition/starvation Dehydration Increased exposure to airborne pollutants

增加空气污染的暴露率 Increased incidence of respiratory ailments

增加呼吸系统疾病的发生率 Increased exposure to UV radiation

增加对紫外线的暴露 Skin cancers 增加皮肤癌的发生率

Drought

Marine ecosystems Sea surface temperatures, sea level, salinity, etc.

海洋表面温度，海平面，含盐量等 Changing availability of marine resources Subsidence and sea level rise Salt water intrusion into coastal aquifers

盐水侵入造成的沿岸淡水资源的减少 Runoff/flood pollution 水土流失或水灾造成的污

染 300 million (25%) people do not have access to

adequate drinking water Pollution “so severe that the Ministry of Water

Resources estimates 40 percent of water in the country's 1,300 or so major rivers is fit only for industrial or agricultural use.” (Xinhua News August 20,2006)

Water Quality and Supply

Climate change is expected to have wide-ranging consequences for human health.

Heat waves are linked to cardiovascular, respiratory, and other diseases.

By reducing fresh water supplies, climate change may affect water resources and sanitation.

Any increase in the frequency or intensity of extreme weather events would pose a threat.

Food security may be undermined in vulnerable regions. Higher temperatures may alter the geographical distribution of

species that transmit disease. Warmer seas could also influence the spread of disease. People will have to adapt or intervene to minimize these

enhanced health risks. Assessing the potential health effects of climate change

involves many uncertainties.

Direct Human Health 人类因素

UNEP, UNFCCC, Williams, M. (2002). Climate Change Information Kit. Switzerland; 14-14.2.

Increased exposure to waterborne disease vectors (viruses, bacteria, worms, infectious disease, malaria, etc.) Higher rates of infection/transmission

Increased exposure to airborne pollutants Increased incidence of respiratory ailments

Increased exposure to UV radiation Skin cancers

Immediate effects of typhoons and droughts Flooding Lack of food/water Spread of waterborne diseases

Decreased fresh water supplies Less water for irrigation Less water for human consumption Less productive harvest

Decreased resources (water and food) Lost crops

Less food for families Less money for economy

Human competition for limited resources Market decline/collapse Physical disruptions of access to markets Mobility, access to emergency and

preventative care Political responses/miscalculations

Ability to respond to disasters of proportions previously unseen

Linguistic, cultural, and other socioeconomic vulnerabilities

Indirect Human Health Consequences

Weather tracking/prediction 气候跟踪或预报 Water transfer projects 水源治理项目 Flood mapping, response

绘制水灾地图，应急反应 Improved communication between levels of

government Create institutions that allow the central

government to convey their decisions and policies to all the local municipalities?

Investing in the rural areas Keep economic growth under control

Governmental Action/Inaction 政府作为或不作为

Conclusions

Global climate change (GCC) will dramatically affect planetary and regional weather patterns

Weather affects everything Social vulnerability is rapidly

increasing and will eventually surpass GCC as principal source of increased morbidity and mortality (the “rich never die”)

Conclusions This presentation argues that the principal

mechanism by which global climate change is likely to affect human health is in the distribution, intensity, and timing of rainfall, and that these effects, while geographically pervasive, will be experienced most acutely at the extremes (i.e., floods and drought), and in a predictable regional distribution (i.e., on the geographic margins of pattern changes).

Humans must address the problem by: (1) reducing, and then reversing, the pace of population growth; (2) dramatically reducing human consumption patterns; and (3) implementing national and regional regulatory policies designed to immediately reduce local and regional releases of black carbon.