field prospect - unece · field prospect discovered resources undiscovered resources cumulative ......
TRANSCRIPT
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FIELD
DISCOVERED RESOURCES
UNDISCOVERED RESOURCES
CUMULATIVE PRODUCTION
PROSPECTIVE RESOURCES (PR)
ESTIMATED ULTIMATE
RECOVERY (EUR)
CONTINGENT RESOURCES (CR)
RESERVES
PROVED PROVED+ PROBABLE
PROVED + PROBABLE +POSSIBLE
LOW ESTIMATE
(1C)
P90%
BEST ESTIMATE
(2C)
P50%
HIGH ESTIMATE
(3C)
P10%
LOW ESTIMATE
(1U)
P90%
BEST ESTIMATE
2U)
P50%
HIGH ESTIMATE
(3U)
P10% 1P 2P 3P
PROSPECT - LEAD
DEVELOPED UNDEVELOPED DEVELOPED UNDEVELOPED
REC
OV
ERA
BLE
IN
-PLA
CE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE GEOLOGICAL RISKS
TOTAL RESOURCES
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TO
TA
L P
ET
RO
LE
UM
IN
ITIA
LLY
IN
-PL
AC
E
DIS
CO
VE
RE
D P
ET
RO
LE
UM
IN
ITIA
LL
Y I
N-P
LA
CE
U
ND
ISC
OV
ER
ED
PE
TR
OL
EU
M
INIT
IAL
LY
IN
-PL
AC
E
CO
MM
ER
CIA
L
PV.
PV. + PROB + POSS.
PV. + PROB
EST. ULTIMATE RECOVERY
(EUR)
SU
B-C
OM
ME
RC
IAL
LOW ESTIMATES.
HIGH ESTIMATES
BEST ESTIMATES
CONTINGENT RESOURCES (CR)
UNRECOVERABLE
LOW ESTIMATES
HIGH ESTIMATES
BEST ESTIMATES
PROSPECTIVE RESOURCES (PR)
UNRECOVERABLE
RANGE OF UNCERTAINTY
RESERVES
PRODUCTION
1P 2P 3P
1C 2C 3C
1U 2U 3U
PROJECT STATUS
LO
WE
R R
ISK
H
IGH
ER
RIS
K
PR
OJE
CT
MA
TU
RIT
Y
Prospect
Lead
Play
On Production
Under Development
Planned for Development
Development Pending
Development on Hold
Development Not Viable
Viable + Committed
Viable + Non-committed
Non-viable
Category #1 - #2
Category #3 - #6
Category #7 - #8
PETRONAS STATUS
CATEGORIES
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INC
RE
AS
ING
CH
AN
CE
OF
CO
MM
ER
CIA
LIT
Y
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PETRONAS Resource Classification was established with the objective to …
… Standardize and establish coherency in petroleum resource definition, classification and reporting for an overall management of the resources and reserves portfolio
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PETRONAS Definitions and Guidelines For Classification of Petroleum Resources
- the resource definitions and guidelines for this classification are in compliance with the definitions and classification adopted by internationally recognized organization such as SPE, WPC, AAPG in particular the petroleum reserves definitions promulgated by the SPE/WPC March 1997 and petroleum resources classifications and definitions promulgated by the SPE/WPC/AAPG in Feb 2000.
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TECHNICAL APPLICATIONS
Prospect Evaluation
Block Assessment
Work Program & Budget
Project Identification
Field Development Plan
Facility Plan
Appraisal Plan
R&D Promotion
IOR / EOR Project
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2
BUSINESS APPLICATIONS
Corporate worth
Fund raising (credit rating)
Stock exchange reporting
Sales contracts (LNG buyers)
Earning basis
Investment decision (FDP)
Corporate financial outlook
Equity determination
Petroleum arrangement (economic
evaluation, PSC terms)
1
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2
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PETRONAS
DOMESTIC (MALAYSIA)
PETRONAS UPSTREAM
ARM
PRODUCTION SHARING
CONTRACTORS (PSC)
RISK SERVICE CONTRACTORS
(RSC)
INTERNATIONAL
PETRONAS UPSTREAM
ARM
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….. are defined as the total estimated quantities of petroleum* at a specific date to be contained in, or that have been produced from known accumulations, plus those estimated quantities in accumulations yet to be discovered
In these definitions, the quantities estimated to be initially-in-place are defined as Total
Petroleum Initially-In-place, comprising Discovered Petroleum–initially-in-place and
Undiscovered Petroleum –initially-in-place
Resources
Undiscovered
(PR)
Discovered
(C/R/Np)
• SPECIFIC DATE • TOTAL REMAINING
VOLUME • TOTAL PRODUCED, Np
• SPECIFIC DATE • TOTAL VOLUME YET
TO BE DISCOVERED
KEY ELEMENTS
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…… is the total quantity of petroleum that is estimated to exist originally in naturally occurring reservoir. Oil Initially -In-place and Gas Initially-In-place are defined in the same manner
PETROLEUM Initially-In-Place
Oil-in-place
Gas-in-place
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INC
RE
AS
ING
CH
AN
CE
OF
CO
MM
ER
CIA
LIT
Y
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Discovered Resources The total estimated in place quantities of petroleum at a specific date to be contained in known accumulations, plus those quantities already produced from there from
Undiscovered Resources
The total estimated in place quantities of petroleum at a specific date to be contained in accumulations yet to be discovered. The estimated potentially recoverable portion of undiscovered Petroleum-Initially-In-place is classified as Prospective Resources
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Estimated Ultimate Recovery (EUR)
….. is defined as those quantities of petroleum which are estimated, on a give date, to be potentially recoverable from an accumulation, plus those quantities already produced there from
Estimated Ultimate Recovery is the sum of Cumulative Production plus
Reserves
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Estimated Ultimate Recovery (EUR)
….. is defined as those quantities of petroleum which are estimated, on a give date, to be potentially recoverable from an accumulation, plus those quantities already produced there from
Estimated Ultimate Recovery is the sum of Cumulative Production plus
Reserves
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Cumulative Production (Np)
….. is defined as the total quantities of petroleum that have been produced at a specific date
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Reserves ….. are defined as those quantities of petroleum which are anticipated to be commercially recoverable from known accumulations from a given date forward
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Proved Reserves
….. are defined as those quantities of petroleum which, by analysis of geological and engineering data, can be estimated with reasonable certainty to be commercially recoverable from a given date forward, from known reservoirs and under current economic conditions, operating methods and government regulations.
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Proved Developed Reserves
….. are those Proved Reserves that are expected to be recovered through existing wells and facilities and by existing operating methods. Improved recovery reserves can be considered as proved Developed Reserves only after an improved recover project has been installed and favorable response has occurred or is expected reasonable degree of certainty.
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Proved Undeveloped Reserves
….. are those proved reserves that are expected to be recovered from future wells and facilities, including future improved recovery projects which are anticipated with a high degree of certainty in reservoirs which have previously shown favorable response to improved recovery projects.
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Unproved Reserves
….. are defined based on geological, geophysical and engineering data similar to that used in estimates of Prove reserves; but technical, contractual, economic, or regulatory uncertainties preclude such reserves being classified as Proved.
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Probable Reserves
….. are defined as those Unproved Reserves which analysis of geological, geophysical and engineering data suggests are more likely than not to be recoverable.
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Possible Reserves.
….. are defined as those Unproved reserves which analysis of geological and engineering data suggests are less likely to be recoverable than Probable reserves
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INC
RE
AS
ING
CH
AN
CE
OF
CO
MM
ER
CIA
LIT
Y
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Contingent Resources (CR)
……..are defined as those quantities of petroleum which are estimated on a given date, to be potentially recoverable from known accumulation but which are not currently considered to be commercially recoverable. The reasons for non-commerciality could be economic, political, environmental or technological.
CR
(P90, P50, P10)
Economic
Political
Environ-mental
Techno-logical
• Production Sharing Contract (PSC) • Development concept
• Hydrocarbon quality (API, CO2, H2S etc)
• Small fields • Reservoir with
inconclusive data • Location • Adverse parameters • Geological complexity
•HSE regulation
• Under unitization
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Contingent Resources (CR)…
• Some ambiguity may exist between the definitions of CR and Unproved Reserves
• Subject to degree of commitment to be developed or placed on production
• Accumulations – currently no viable market or commercial recovery is dependent on the development of new technology, or early evaluation
• If Probabilistic, P90%, P50% and P10%
• If deterministic, technical definitions same as reserves except they are not currently producible. Low Estimate = Proved Reserves, Best and High Estimate = Unproved Reserves
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Contingent Resources may include:
• Accumulation being held in inventory such as marginal fields.
• Accumulations that will probably be commercially recoverable in the near future/short term (non-commercial subject to size, location, technology and economics
• Accumulation that have no plans for development in near future
• Non-producing reservoirs due to:
• a. Adverse parameter i.e. very low porosity development, low permeability
• b. Unfavorable petroleum parameters i.e. gravity, viscosity
• c. Extreme non-hydrocarbon content, i.e. CO2, H2S.
• IOR – changes characteristics of the fluid in the reservoir through injection or steam, gas or chemicals..
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INC
RE
AS
ING
CH
AN
CE
OF
CO
MM
ER
CIA
LIT
Y
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Undiscovered Resources
Are defined as the total estimated in-place quantities of petroleum at a specific date to be contained in accumulations yet to be discovered. Prospective Resources (PR) are defined as those quantities of petroleum which are estimated , on a given date, to be potentially recoverable from Undiscovered accumulations.
Undiscovered Resources
- Total In-place quantities of petroleum
- A specific date
- To be contained in accumulations
- Yet to be discovered
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Prospective Resources (PR)
… are defined as those quantities of petroleum which are estimated o given date to be potentially recoverable from undiscovered accumulations.
Prospective Resources (PR)
- Estimated quantities of petroleum
- Estimated on a given date
- To be potentially recoverable (apply RF)
- From undiscovered accumulations
- Reporting : Un-risked P90%, P50%, P10% as 1U, 2U & 3U or LE, BE & HE
- Geological Risk, Pg should be given alongside each estimate
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Prospective Resources (PR)
- Reporting : Deterministic ( LE, BE and HE) & Probabilistic (P90%, P50% & P10%)
- PR should be risked for probability of geological success, Pg – the chance of the geological model being correct. Pg is established based on technical assessment
- Prospective Resources should imply an UNRISKED estimate
- In principle the technical definitions for these categories are the same as for reserves in terms of reflecting a range of uncertainties. However, PR represent undiscovered volumes.
- LE/P90% should be derived using the highest confidence data & HE/P10% estimate derived from the least confidence data
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ESTIMATED ULTIMATE
RECOVERY (EUR)
•Discovered
•EUR = Np + Reserves
•Commercial : current
economic conditions,
regulations, practice
•Producing fields
•Firm development
CONTINGENT RESOURCES
• Discovered
• Currently not producible:
economic, political, environmental
or technological reasons
• Adverse Reservoir: tight, geo-
pressures
• Extreme fluid parameters : heavy
crude
• Insufficient / Inconclusive data
PROSPECTIVE RESOURCES
•Undiscovered
•Unproven trap
•Deeper reservoir in
producing field
BLOCK 1 BLOCK 2 BLOCK 3
P1
P2P3
ODT
EOWC
SPILL
P1 P4 P4
P6
P5
OWC
GDT
P4 P5 P6
?
EOWC?
SPILL?
LOW
EXPECTED
HIGH
BLOCK 1 BLOCK 2 BLOCK 3
C1 C1 C1
C2
C3
C2
C3 BEST
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