fenny kusumawardani (urban and regional planning) … · situation review banger polder project...

Fenny Kusumawardani (Urban and Regional Planning)Rudiansyah SN (Environmental Science)

Supervisor:Eveline Buter (Witteveen+Bos Indonesia)Arno Kops (Witteveen+Bos Netherlands)Hans Hasselt (Saxion University)Gerry Stegeman (Saxion University)

Situation Review Banger Polder Project Objective & MRQ SCBA Feasibility study Methods of SCBA Result Sensitivity analysis Conclusion and recommendation

Applicability of SCBA in Indonesia Methods Conclusion and recommendation

Socio-economic Cost Benefit Analysis (SCBA) of Banger Polder Semarang, Indonesia

Semarang Timur

Flood Inundation


The projects are Strengthening eastern and northern dikes closing Kali Banger from the sea by building dam Kali Banger will be dredged deeper, Building pumping station Enlarging retention basin Optimizing and implementing channels and weirs.


Cost for the construction, operation and

maintenance are 76 billions Rupiah


Objectives :1. To give a Socio-Economic Cost and Benefit Analysis (SCBA) of

Banger Project Polder in Semarang during 20 years lifetime, in order to know feasibility of the project.

2. To measure applicability of SCBA, by consulting stakeholders in Semarang, Indonesia and researchers experiences.

MRQ:1. How is the feasibility of Banger Project Polder using Socio-Economic

Cost and Benefit Analysis? 2. Does the value show significant change in the result due to the use of

those values? How much its sensitivity if the value is changed? 3. Will SCBA be applicable to use as an analysis tool in Indonesia?


“What SCBA is”:

An analysis of the Cost Effectiveness of Different Alternatives in order to see whether the benefits outweigh the cost,

SCBA will:

- Describe all (+) and (-) impacts of the project, also for those which do not have PRICE in the MARKET

- And try to express it in MONETARY TERMS


“What the advantages of SCBA are”:

It will reflect the real value of a project to society

Evaluating a project from the view point of the society

Considering the sustainability for the inhabitants and environment

States in money: the assessment become more visible

Measuring the feasibility of the project for the inhabitants and environment

Clear information of society’s welfare & risk from a project in order to make economic decisions of any kind


Steps in SCBA in order to know the

FEASIBILITYof the project


Step 1-2:Describing the

baseline as autonomousdevelopmentand BangerPolder Project refer to it


Step 3:Cost of the BPP

(alternative) consist of:

- Investment cost (once)

- O & M cost (yearly)


Step 4:Translating the

physical impact into welfare impact


Step 5:Formulating the

way of calculation (formula) to quantify and monetize the impact result in money

In this step, the (+) or (-) impact of the project is described


Step 6:Timeline

process, in order to know what going to happen in the next N years Present value

Formula:

PV= F / (1+r )N

After this step, the FEASIBILITY of a Banger polder project can be concluded


To measure the feasibility of Banger Project, a balancing between COST and BENEFIT is done

From the table, it can be viewed that the project is FEASIBLE = (NPV > 0) = brings benefit to the inhabitants and entire Banger area.

Per year, each household has € 510 of the benefit and € 760 for Banger area


Step 7-8:Analyzing sensitivity of

the result by the discount rate and the used data of some impacts calculation

Sensitivity = the rankbetween autonomous development and the alternative does not change



The calculation shows that the project brings benefitaround € 760 per Household per year = NPV > 0 = the project is FEASIBLE

Researcher should aware with the use of approach and assumption to calculate the impact

Conclusion:

Recommendation:

And the result is not sensitive with the change of discount rate and the uncertain data, the project still brings benefit to the inhabitants


Appropriate strategy should be properly constructed if a survey is planned

Method

Drs. PM. Broto Sunaryo, MSP

Reseacher’s experience by applying SCBA in Indonesia Accessibility of

data

Nik Sutiyani ST., MT. -

Ir. Rosid Hudoyo, M.T -

Sufficient fund

Acceptable period of time

Human resources.

Level of influence in

decision making

Criteria SWOT

Sources Criteria Result

Interview


Accessibility of data

Sufficient fund

Acceptable period of time

Human resources.

Level of influence in decision making


Inconsistent data inventory

Limited information about financial data

Variations in raw data

Population census

Central Statistic Bureau

Investor

Loans

Economic growth

Investor

Loans

Economic growth

Limited time due toproject schedulePolitical issue

Bottom up systemTrainingNational economic expert organization

Subject of SWOT analysis: Applicability of SCBA in IndonesiaStrengths:- Capable human resources

Weakness:- Insufficient fund- Time consuming- Inconsistent data- Inaccessible data

Opportunity:- An organization that validates result ofSCBA- Economic growth- Investor- Legalization

Threats:- Political effect- Variety of income and publicvalues.



ConclusionSocial-economical cost benefit analysis can be applied in Indonesia.

RecommendationHowever, to be better applied, the outcome of this cost benefit analysis should be regulated and legalized during policy making steps.

For further research is necessary to interview higher level of government in Indonesia. Since, not only having more proper answer but also introduce SCBA to them.

After legalization of SCBA several points should be considered by Indonesia governments, which are:

1. Policy about accessibility of data 2. An agency to evaluate the result of SCBA.

Other stakeholder (university, researcher, private companies) who willing to have this analysis applies in Indonesia, can do this following step:

1. Making article about SCBA in press media2. Giving lecture or presentation about SCBA to government


1. How is the feasibility of Banger Project Polder using Socio-Economic Cost and Benefit Analysis?

2. Does the value show significant change in the result due to the use of those values? How much its sensitivity if the value is changed?

3. Will SCBA be applicable to use as an analysis tool in Indonesia?

fenny kusumawardani (urban and regional planning) … · situation review banger polder project...

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